Ukraine

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi folks,

For your viewing pleasure:

Putin's Road to War | Watch S2022 E18 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Putin's Way | Watch S2015 E5 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Jerry Baumchen

[olofscience 420]

3 hours ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Trump and his apple-doesn't-fall-far-from-the-tree spawn have been spreading the lie that Putin didn't invade Ukraine while Trump was in office because he was afraid of Trump.  A more reasonable explanation is that he was hoping Trump would pull the US out of NATO.  He was likely counting on Trump being re-elected or stealing the election, but when that didn't happen Putin decided to not wait 4+ more years on the chance that Trump would get back in and wreck NATO.

That's funny because Trump showed every sign of being afraid of Putin.

Trump is also afraid of Xi Jinping - he'd act all tough for the media, but when actually meeting Xi in person he suddenly turns into a fawning fan. Then back to being "tough guy" as soon as Xi leaves the room.

 

There was an interesting movie several years back - "The Ghostwriter" - which was about a UK Prime Minister getting elected who was actually handled by a CIA agent. Who knew it would actually happen, in a way...

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

6 minutes ago, olofscience said:

That's funny because Trump showed every sign of being afraid of Putin.

Trump is also afraid of Xi Jinping - he'd act all tough for the media, but when actually meeting Xi in person he suddenly turns into a fawning fan. Then back to being "tough guy" as soon as Xi leaves the room.

 

There was an interesting movie several years back - "The Ghostwriter" - which was about a UK Prime Minister getting elected who was actually handled by a CIA agent. Who knew it would actually happen, in a way...

Hi Olof,

IMO a very good film:  The Ghost Writer (film) - Wikipedia

Jerry Baumchen

[brenthutch 383]

Negotiated end to hostilities:

He is going to have to give up Donbas

He is going to have to give up Crimea 

He is going to have to cave on NATO membership 

He is going to have to cave on EU membership 

His forces will have to drop their weapons 

After that Ukraine will accept Putin’s surrender and allow the remaining Russian soldiers to return to Russia 

[wmw999 2,121]

And if he had done something with US troops in Ukraine,

”got us into another quagmire.”

Wendy P. 

[jakee 1,254]

9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Negotiated end to hostilities:

He is going to have to give up Donbas

He is going to have to give up Crimea 

He is going to have to cave on NATO membership 

He is going to have to cave on EU membership 

His forces will have to drop their weapons 

After that Ukraine will accept Putin’s surrender and allow the remaining Russian soldiers to return to Russia 

Lol what? Crimea and the Donbas are now Russian forever, let’s be realistic. NATO is also a hard line and Ukraine would do extremely well to keep them to not much more than that.

[brenthutch 383]

4 minutes ago, jakee said:

Lol what? Crimea and the Donbas are now Russian forever, let’s be realistic. NATO is also a hard line and Ukraine would do extremely well to keep them to not much more than that.

 

14 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

And if he had done something with US troops in Ukraine,

”got us into another quagmire.”

Wendy P. 

Face palm. The “he” in my scenario is Putin. 
Again it confirms my suspicion that lefties are bereft of a sense of humor 

15 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

 

[jakee 1,254]

22 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Face palm. The “he” in my scenario is Putin. 

Yes, I know. That’s what I replied to. Let me know which part of my post you don’t understand and I’ll explain it to you.

[brenthutch 383]

6 minutes ago, jakee said:

Yes, I know. That’s what I replied to. Let me know which part of my post you don’t understand and I’ll explain it to you.

I was responding to Wendy not you.  I was going to respond to you and forgot to delete.  Sorry for the confusion 

Edited March 16, 2022 by brenthutch

[yoink 321]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Negotiated end to hostilities:

He is going to have to give up Donbas

He is going to have to give up Crimea 

He is going to have to cave on NATO membership 

He is going to have to cave on EU membership 

His forces will have to drop their weapons 

After that Ukraine will accept Putin’s surrender and allow the remaining Russian soldiers to return to Russia 

Not a chance. None. Putin needs a way to save face and declare a victory. That means no Ukraine in Nato and a gain in territory.

Try reading this instead of whatever fiction you have been: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60756993 

[airdvr 197]

14 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

For your viewing pleasure:

Putin's Road to War | Watch S2022 E18 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Putin's Way | Watch S2015 E5 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Jerry Baumchen

Thanks Jerry.

[JoeWeber 2,298]

36 minutes ago, yoink said:

Not a chance. None. Putin needs a way to save face and declare a victory. That means no Ukraine in Nato and a gain in territory.

Try reading this instead of whatever fiction you have been: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60756993 

Oh, he's just Brentivating again, as ever. He's a flock shooter and we're a flock of ducks. This time he missed jakee and got you. Maybe I'm next, who knows?

[brenthutch 383]

38 minutes ago, yoink said:

Not a chance. None. Putin needs a way to save face and declare a victory. That means no Ukraine in Nato and a gain in territory.

Try reading this instead of whatever fiction you have been: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60756993 

IT WAS A JOKE!  Jakee got it, you must be slow on the uptake.

[wmw999 2,121]

Watch it

Wendy P. 

[Bigfalls 110]

16 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

For your viewing pleasure:

Putin's Road to War | Watch S2022 E18 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Putin's Way | Watch S2015 E5 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site

Jerry Baumchen

I watched it last night on TV.  Very interesting, everyone should watch it.

 

[ryoder 1,382]

Four Russian Generals Killed in Three Weeks Show Moscow’s Vulnerabilities in Ukraine

The Russians are going through generals like Murphy Brown went through secretaries.

 

[yoink 321]

9 hours ago, brenthutch said:

IT WAS A JOKE!  Jakee got it, you must be slow on the uptake.

With you, who knows?

[Baksteen 84]

13 hours ago, ryoder said:

Four Russian Generals Killed in Three Weeks Show Moscow’s Vulnerabilities in Ukraine

The Russians are going through generals like Murphy Brown went through secretaries.

 

I don't know. I still feel that "our side" is emphasizing Russian incompetence a lot in this conflict. Not this article specifically, but more generally speaking (no pun intended).
Could be part propaganda.

[Phil1111 910]

42 minutes ago, Baksteen said:

I don't know. I still feel that "our side" is emphasizing Russian incompetence a lot in this conflict. Not this article specifically, but more generally speaking (no pun intended).
Could be part propaganda.

I'm surprised that anyone could say that as the response seems to be. Buy more weapons and increase defense spending.

[metalslug 31]

There are aspects of the ongoing conflict that have me mildly puzzled;  Zelensky has recently said that Russia's terms of negotiation are now sounding 'more realistic' and include terms such as;

Ukraine must remain outside of NATO forever. Crimea must be recognised as Russian. Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk must be independent.

These terms are not much different from the practical reality of 3 weeks ago before the fighting started. Sweden and Finland seem to be doing OK (outside of NATO) and both Germany and France have indicated in the past that they will oppose Ukrainian membership, so NATO membership was always unlikely for Ukraine anyway. The other two terms are not fantastic for Ukraine, but to resist them prolongs the conflict arguably longer than it needs to. With those terms accepted Putin can get his 'win' without decimating more of Ukraine. Unless Ukraine truly believes it can win this war alone, then these terms merit consideration. Furthermore, a future less autocratic Russian leader may well revoke the NATO condition in future decades. Few things are 'forever'.

Zelensky keeps repeating his request for a NATO no-fly zone and I expect it has been repeatedly explained to Ukraine why NATO will not agree to it. Most of the civilian and urban damage has come from land-based artillery strikes, significantly more than from the air, therefore the limited benefit of a no-fly zone is even weaker now relative to the risk of WW3. While I empathise with Zelensky's desperation, the repeated calls seem illogical at this point.

Poland has called on NATO for a 'peace-keeping' mission to Ukraine at a time when there is no peace to keep and should surely be aware that such forces are only relevant before or after a war.

Would I be alone to think that some of the political positions (taken by these respective leaders) above are a bit odd ?

[obelixtim 100]

7 hours ago, metalslug said:

There are aspects of the ongoing conflict that have me mildly puzzled;  Zelensky has recently said that Russia's terms of negotiation are now sounding 'more realistic' and include terms such as;

Ukraine must remain outside of NATO forever. Crimea must be recognised as Russian. Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk must be independent.

These terms are not much different from the practical reality of 3 weeks ago before the fighting started. Sweden and Finland seem to be doing OK (outside of NATO) and both Germany and France have indicated in the past that they will oppose Ukrainian membership, so NATO membership was always unlikely for Ukraine anyway. The other two terms are not fantastic for Ukraine, but to resist them prolongs the conflict arguably longer than it needs to. With those terms accepted Putin can get his 'win' without decimating more of Ukraine. Unless Ukraine truly believes it can win this war alone, then these terms merit consideration. Furthermore, a future less autocratic Russian leader may well revoke the NATO condition in future decades. Few things are 'forever'.

Zelensky keeps repeating his request for a NATO no-fly zone and I expect it has been repeatedly explained to Ukraine why NATO will not agree to it. Most of the civilian and urban damage has come from land-based artillery strikes, significantly more than from the air, therefore the limited benefit of a no-fly zone is even weaker now relative to the risk of WW3. While I empathise with Zelensky's desperation, the repeated calls seem illogical at this point.

Poland has called on NATO for a 'peace-keeping' mission to Ukraine at a time when there is no peace to keep and should surely be aware that such forces are only relevant before or after a war.

Would I be alone to think that some of the political positions (taken by these respective leaders) above are a bit odd ?

It sounds like the citizens of the two eastern provinces, although Russian speaking, have decided that they hate the Russians for what they have done and want to remain Ukrainians. The Crimea was annexed illegally, and is really part of Ukraine. I can't see Zelensky acceding  to Vlads demands about those places, especially if the Ukrainians succeed in pushing the Russians back into Russia. Vlads position weakens by the day, and it sounds like he might have a bit of internal strife coming his way as the sanctions really bite. 

There is no way in hell Zelensky will agree to disarm, The Russians have already proved that they can't be trusted, and they never will be again after this. 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by obelixtim

[gowlerk 1,910]

10 hours ago, metalslug said:

Would I be alone to think that some of the political positions (taken by these respective leaders) above are a bit odd ?

No one ever starts negotiations from the point they would settle for. And the reality on the ground changes everything. Ukraine will lose Crimea for sure. And since they did not fight to keep it they deserve to lose it. Everything else is up for grabs. There is no force in the world that can impose a peace right now. Only when terms are agreed to will there be peace and the terms will absolutely not include peace keepers unless Russia completely disintegrates. Zelensky will continue to pressure the west for things that he knows they will not provide and this is also a form of negotiation. He is doing everything he can to keep the conflict in the public eye knowing that will increase pressure on the west to do as much as it is willing to. If the situation does not improve soon it will escalate one way or another and the west will get more and more involved. 

Russia will be permanently diminished by this fiasco. It is not impossible that they will decide to diminish the rest of the world at the same time. And they have the means to do so.

[Phil1111 910]

54 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

No one ever starts negotiations from the point they would settle for.

Agree

54 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

. And the reality on the ground changes everything

Agree

54 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Ukraine will lose Crimea for sure. And since they did not fight to keep it they deserve to lose it. Everything else is up for grabs.

Disagree. Did you graduate from the trump school of international diplomacy and law? Ukraine didn't fight the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas because they had a military with no capacity to do so. They had a broken down army with outdated command procedures along Soviet lines. A communication system completely compromised by Russia. Few weapons.

Since then NATO countries including Canada, US, Germany, Poland and others poured weapons, ships and training into the Ukrainian armed forces.

Eventually Putin will be gone. With it the will of the right wing fascists in Russia to re-create the Russian empire. In the short term the rule of the jungle, the bigger bully will settle geographic boundaries law.

Russia will pay a heavy price for Putin. Financially and politically. When Russians, the resident of Crimea and Donbas. See a successful Ukraine and a stagnating Russia. See the facts of the world. They will vote economics over pseudo-nationalism. Because the disinformation campaign of the Kremlin won't last forever. Because sanctions will bite and a 10-15% drop in GDP will hurt them.

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,910]

9 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Ukraine didn't fight the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas because they had a military with no capacity to do so.

And because the people in Crimea did not object. The history in the area is complex. Putin's claims stretch it out of shape for the most part. But not in Crimea. Russia will keep it unless the west is willing to invade it and fight for it. Which it won't. The Sevastopol naval base will not be relinquished. Russia is weakened, it will not be vanquished.  

Edited March 18, 2022 by gowlerk

[Phil1111 910]

18 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

And because the people in Crimea did not object. The history in the area is complex. Putin's claims stretch it out of shape for the most part. But not in Crimea. Russia will keep it unless the west is willing to invade it and fight for it. Which it won't. The Sevastopol naval base will not be relinquished. Russia is weakened, it will not be vanquished.  

Russian locals in those two seized states may change their opinions when the only tourists are broke Russians. When the Russian state can't afford to prop up its various conquered sub-states. With lavish subsidies. Because Putin is spending his worthless rubles at home, on war reparations, rebuilding his military machine, etc.

Educated Russians are fleeing the sinking ship. Eventually ordinary Russian nationalists will vote economics over a history of any greater Russian federation.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Phil1111