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SkyDekker

Ukraine

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26 minutes ago, ryoder said:

That's about the best example of "it needs to be done by someone, as long as it's not me" that I can imagine. He takes no risks whatsoever by saying this. He could, instead, be working with other congresscritters (you know -- his job) to figure out an aid package, or an agreement on what constitutes an appropriate response. But it's like leaving the partisans in Spain on their own, or saying "the Jews just should escape." At the very least, promise asylum (you know -- white people anti-Communist Cuban asylum, not the years-long process for American employees and collaborators in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Anyone who takes Putin out had better be an orphan with no friends, because there will be consequences. Lindsey Graham has the capacity to do good things, but he's got too close an eye on what the public perceives of him, rather than what the situation really needs.

Yes, that would be the best answer. But, you know -- it's not like the Russians aren't able to think of that for themselves.

Wendy P.

 

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26 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Anyone who takes Putin out had better be an orphan with no friends, because there will be consequences.

I'm not convinced of that. His lackeys live in fear of him. He has totally trashed the economy and put all the oligarchs fortunes in jeopardy. I would suspect they would all breathe a sigh of relief, just before engaging in the fight over the opportunity to replace him.

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(edited)

We have not heard from our coldest cold warrior and watchman on the wall Ron D about this Russian adventure yet. I wonder if he has a copy on our transmissions anymore? Maybe this is the beginning of the real SHTF.

Edited by gowlerk

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Can Trump possibly go any lower?

On Fox (Faux) News:

.@MariaBartiromo: "Do you expect China to invade Taiwan sooner rather than later?" President Donald Trump: "I do because they're seeing how stupid the United States is run. They're seeing that our leaders are incompetent. Of course they're going to do it. This is their time."

Actually it's a rhetorical question.  There is no bottom to how low Trump is willing to go for his own benefit.

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2 hours ago, ryoder said:

While none (or at least hopefully few) of us would disagree, it was an astonishingly stupid thing for him to say out loud.  It is a remarkable propaganda victory for Putin as it plays directly into the Kremlin line that the war was instigated by the US to attack Russia.  It is already being played as such on Russian state-controlled media.  Graham is a Senator, and as such his words can easily be construed as stating US government policy.  This proves that he is either too stupid to understand the consequences of his actions, or he doesn't care, or (like Trump) he sees some advantage to catering to Putin.  No matter the reason, he is totally unfit to be in any position of political power.

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Hi folks,

I think that if NATO ( including the US ) does not come to the aid of Ukraine in a big way, it will simply become a puppet state of the Russian Federation.

Door #1)  Come to the aid of Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to save their country.

Door #2)  Do what we are doing now & it will simply become a puppet state of the Russian Federation.

Thoughts?

Jerry Baumchen

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(edited)
25 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Door #1)  Come to the aid of Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to save their country.

Is NATO ready, right now, for an all-out war with Russia, including having tactical nuclear weapons used against NATO forces and European cities?  Russia apparently has a significant advantage in such weapons, and there is little reason to doubt that Putin would use them.  By "tactical" nuclear weapons I mean smaller yield (but still highly destructive) weapons that can be launched as an artillery projectile to take out an airfield or similar target.  These differ from strategic weapons designed to take out entire cities.

The risk of an all-out war is that NATO could lose the former Eastern Block and Balkan countries if they can't achieve a clear victory over Russia. With Putin running the Russian side of things, a scorched-earth approach is all too possible.

Edited by GeorgiaDon
too vs to

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47 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Is NATO ready, right now, for an all-out war with Russia, including having tactical nuclear weapons used against NATO forces and European cities?  Russia apparently has a significant advantage in such weapons, and there is little reason to doubt that Putin would use them.  By "tactical" nuclear weapons I mean smaller yield (but still highly destructive) weapons that can be launched as an artillery projectile to take out an airfield or similar target.  These differ from strategic weapons designed to take out entire cities.

The risk of an all-out war is that NATO could lose the former Eastern Block and Balkan countries if they can't achieve a clear victory over Russia. With Putin running the Russian side of things, a scorched-earth approach is all too possible.

Hi Don,

I do agree.  However, that only leaves Door #2.

Jerry Baumchen

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1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

I think that if NATO ( including the US ) does not come to the aid of Ukraine in a big way, it will simply become a puppet state of the Russian Federation.

Door #1)  Come to the aid of Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to save their country.

Door #2)  Do what we are doing now & it will simply become a puppet state of the Russian Federation.

Door #3) Aid Ukraine indirectly.  Support all its allies with money and materiel.  Find channels to get that aid into Ukraine.  Turn Ukraine into Russia's next Afghanistan.

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1 hour ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Is NATO ready, right now, for an all-out war with Russia, including having tactical nuclear weapons used against NATO forces and European cities?  Russia apparently has a significant advantage in such weapons, and there is little reason to doubt that Putin would use them.  By "tactical" nuclear weapons I mean smaller yield (but still highly destructive) weapons that can be launched as an artillery projectile to take out an airfield or similar target.  These differ from strategic weapons designed to take out entire cities.

The risk of an all-out war is that NATO could lose the former Eastern Block and Balkan countries if they can't achieve a clear victory over Russia. With Putin running the Russian side of things, a scorched-earth approach is all too possible.

In the absence of a bold and initial European response beginning soon, or some outlier event, it seems likely that Ukraine is lost. So far they don't even want to provide air cover much less ground troops.

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13 minutes ago, billvon said:

Door #3) Aid Ukraine indirectly.  Support all its allies with money and materiel.  Find channels to get that aid into Ukraine.  Turn Ukraine into Russia's next Afghanistan.

That seems like as good an outcome as any. 

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

Door #3) Aid Ukraine indirectly.  Support all its allies with money and materiel.  Find channels to get that aid into Ukraine.  Turn Ukraine into Russia's next Afghanistan.

Door #4) Cut Russia off from the rest of the world. Finances, resources (raw materials), finished goods, trade, everything.

It's in progress. Boeing and Airbus are refusing to sell any more spare parts to Russia. Not unlike all the airplanes the US sold to Iran pre-79, they won't be any good if they break the wrong part with no replacement.

There's a story going around that a Georgian replenishment ship refused to fuel a Russian tanker. It's made to sound like it was entirely out of anger at Russia for invading Ukraine, but there's also the simple fact that any payment from the Russian company (in Rubles) would be worthless.
Did the captain want to support Ukraine or did he know he wouldn't get paid?

In any case, telling the Russians to "row" is pretty cool (if it's true).

While no one country or type of embargo will be enough, the cumulative effect of all of the world cutting Russia off is having a serious effect.

I can't see Putin lasting more than a month or two like this. 
I don't know how long Ukraine can hold out, but it's now a 'who gives in first' situation.

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3 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Door #4) Cut Russia off from the rest of the world. Finances, resources (raw materials), finished goods, trade, everything....

Yes

 

4 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I can't see Putin lasting more than a month or two like this. ...

Oh he can last a long long time. He cares less about his population. He will turn this into a mother Russia v. Bad USA battle and he controls totally Russian media. Ever notice that its the US thats the bad guy and not the UK, France, Canada, etc.

There has been little attention to China in this equation. China will become Putin's enabler in entire affair. They will supply him with cash, buy his oil,gas, etc. China will leak sanctioned products to Russia. i.e. Boeing and Airbus parts.

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1 minute ago, Phil1111 said:

Oh he can last a long long time. He cares less about his population. He will turn this into a mother Russia v. Bad USA battle and he controls totally Russian media. Ever notice that its the US thats the bad guy and not the UK, France, Canada, etc.

There has been little attention to China in this equation. China will become Putin's enabler in entire affair. They will supply him with cash, buy his oil,gas, etc. China will leak sanctioned products to Russia. i.e. Boeing and Airbus parts.

Putin may not care, but he still has people to answer to.

The billionaire/oligarchs/kleptocrats that run everything in the country. Energy, raw materials/resources, industrial production, everything.

They're getting clobbered. And they aren't happy.

While no single one of them has the power to stand up to Putin, collectively they have enough power to bring him down. 
They were probably on board with this whole endeavor at the beginning.

Now that Biden has done a masterful job in organizing just about the entire world against Russia (he's been a long-time foreign policy guy), the 'behind the scenes' people are going to need a way out.

I have no clue how that will happen, when or even 'if'. 

But it wouldn't surprise me to read in the news in the next few days that Putin had a 'heart attack' and will need a 'lengthy convalescence' to recover. 

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1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

In the absence of a bold and initial European response beginning soon, or some outlier event, it seems likely that Ukraine is lost. So far they don't even want to provide air cover much less ground troops.

Airplanes in the sky is the same as boots on the ground and would actively bring NATO into the conflict.

Can you explain to me how you see a European response as separate from a NATO response?

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21 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

There has been little attention to China in this equation. China will become Putin's enabler in entire affair. They will supply him with cash, buy his oil,gas, etc. China will leak sanctioned products to Russia. i.e. Boeing and Airbus parts.

Because Putin will want to avoid this at all costs. Becoming dependent on one country is the exact antithesis of Putin's goal. Also, I don't think China and Russia's goals are aligned.

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(edited)
22 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Putin may not care, but he still has people to answer to....

IMO he answers to nobody. He is a KGB hardnut who is recalculating his next response. He got where he is with poison, prison, assassination and calculation. The average Russian is used to hardship. Sacrifice for Mother Russia. Putin will use that in his calculations.

The KGB will sell the narrative that sacrifices are necessary for the military.He will reward the generals with cash. Reward the mothers of dead sons with cash. Give them all medals. Tell them that they are heroes for what they are doing. The ones that disagree. Will get the same cells that Russian opposition members have right now.

Its all a calculation for Putin. For him the games in Ukraine have just started. The war is only a week old. In another three weeks he might have the Polish border closed. The NATO borders closed. Then he can starve Ukraine. He has seen sanctions slip over time. What happens if a cold wave strikes Europe and he turns the gas taps off?

Neither Putin, nor his oligarchs will miss a single meal. Over any of this.

Edited by Phil1111

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