Ukraine

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

Hi folks,

Well, there goes the retirement package:  Ukraine: Russian general reported killed in attack on Berdyansk hotel - BBC News

Jerry Baumchen

[JoeWeber 2,294]

Back to the war in Ukraine, I'm evolving. I now think we, and our allies, need to ramp it up and provide whatever Ukraine needs to punch through the defensive lines Russia painstakingly built. We need to not only supply ATACM's but we need to release the obligation to only use the weapons on Ukrainian soil. We all need to recognize that Russia will not attack Europe at this stage and so loosen up restrictions on held back munitions and weapons, especially air defense equipment and lots of it. If Ukraine doesn't have a real breakthrough success and soon support will likely falter. Timing, as ever, is the real game.

[rifleman 61]

Massive fire and explosions at Russian military base in Crimea forces evacuation of 2000+ locals.

 

[Phil1111 908]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:16 PM, JoeWeber said:

... We need to not only supply ATACM's but we need to release the obligation to only use the weapons on Ukrainian soil. We all need to recognize that Russia will not attack Europe at this stage and so loosen up restrictions on held back munitions and weapons, especially air defense equipment and lots of it.

Agree. Its time for Ukraine to attack Russian ships anywhere in the Sea of Azov.

16 hours ago, rifleman said:

Massive fire and explosions at Russian military base in Crimea forces evacuation of 2000+ locals.

This was a very substantial ammo depo. Perhaps the biggest such strike of the war. Secondary explosions over hours.The explosions were heard over 30 km away. Thousands of troops were at the base. Needless to say Putin was not informed of it.

Storing huge quantities of ammo and training troops at the same location seems to be a Russian staple of operations.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Phil1111

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

Hi folks,

More cannon fodder:  Russia is raising the maximum age at which men can be conscripted from 27 to 30

Ukraine war: Russia expands pool of men eligible for call-up - BBC News

Think there will be a run on fake birth certificates?

Jerry Baumchen

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

45 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

More cannon fodder:  Russia is raising the maximum age at which men can be conscripted from 27 to 30

Ukraine war: Russia expands pool of men eligible for call-up - BBC News

Think there will be a run on fake birth certificates?

Jerry Baumchen

Hi Jerry,

More like a 'run for the border'.

Or a 'run to the hinterlands'.

Lots and lots of stories out there about draft evaders.

Many leave Russia (if they are able).

Many more go to 'grandma's house' or a similar relative, friend, relative of a friend, friend of a relative, and on and on.

Someone who lives in one of the outlying areas. No running water, maybe not even electicity. No jobs either.

But very little government.

Lots of mafia in those areas. Protection from the main government can be bought fairly cheap.

Of course, anyone with any real money and/or skills has left the country. Georgia is super popular. Not all the Georgians are happy that they're there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/they-dont-know-how-they-are-viewed-here-russians-in-georgia-revive-old-tension

[gowlerk 1,902]

Russia screwed up the 20th century pretty badly. Now that they have had a couple decades to recover they are working hard to screw up the 21st as well.

[Phil1111 908]

9 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Russia screwed up the 20th century pretty badly. Now that they have had a couple decades to recover they are working hard to screw up the 21st as well.

Unlike other ex communist European governments Russians have always loved two things. Authoritarian governments and rewriting history to suit their needs. The always have a list of enemies usually made up to blame everything on.

"A record 70 percent of Russians approve of Soviet leader Josef Stalin’s role in Russian history, according to a poll published by the independent Levada Center pollster on Tuesday(April 2019).

They also have a long history of using food as a weapon: "In 1932 and 1933, millions(about 4-7 million) of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin."

[JoeWeber 2,294]

It might be that the push to Tokmak I was hoping for is underway. It seems the Ukrainians are rotating front line troops and bringing up some western trained and equipped armored brigades. It's a high stakes play but taking Tokmak puts critical Russian assets in Crimea in range of tube artillery. 

[JoeWeber 2,294]

Looking at the maps of Russian fortifications, I am starting to wonder if the push towards Tokmak is a great a plan as I have previously claimed. Rather, look towards Russia out of Kharkiv. Ukraine holds the high ground above the Seversky Donets river which they can cross on their own territory and then left wheel into Russia where a thin single line of defensive fortifications are holding the line. They could do that without a single piece of western armor and really put the Russians in a tizzy. Then use all of the western kit to punch through where ever the Russians pull troops to deal with the backfield breakthrough. Yes, Medvedev has stated that Russian territory would be defended with nuclear weapons but......

Why? Well, sometimes you need to crap or free up the toilet. If Ukraine doesn't end the "Big Show" with at least one hundred billion dollar gain, which thus far have not materialized, western interest will most certainly morph into pushing for peace at the cost of Ukrainian territory. Why again? Because at the end of this Ukrainian summer we will have accomplished job 1: degrading substantially Russian military potential and thus Russian aspirations, reorienting the geopolitical balance vis a vis the US, Russia and China in our favor, and most importantly showing our adversaries that NATO is not a toothless Tiger. 

Any one of those wins can be negated by just one of our partners tapping out which, because we are all democracies more or less and often much less, is always on offer.

Edited August 1, 2023 by JoeWeber

[Phil1111 908]

10 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

 ... at the end of this Ukrainian summer we will have accomplished job 1: degrading substantially Russian military potential and thus Russian aspirations, reorienting the geopolitical balance vis a vis the US, Russia and China in our favor, and most importantly showing our adversaries that NATO is not a toothless Tiger. ..

I wish Biden would listen to other NATO countries and send ATACMS. The Storm Shadow and other long range weapons are sending Russia back to Russo-Japanese War status. They are running out of tanks, armored vehicles and even missiles.

Ukrainian generals have proven to be very good. Every time there is an engagement where Ukrainian losses are high the lessons are noted and not repeated. Russia has still a substantial amount of deployed anti-tank weapons. Those weapons and mines have proven to be formidable. But Russian troop morale is suffering terribly and its will to hold fast lessons every week.

Western patience is needed and will prevail. Putin is trying to hang on for a trump 2024 victory.

Fortunately that alliance will lose.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

A couple thoughts:

The Ukrainians are doing a very good job of attriting Russia's supplies. They're blowing up ammo depots EVERY DAY. And POL storage. In both occupied Ukraine and in Russia. The Russians are losing incredible amounts of things they desperately need and don't have a whole lot of.

Advancing in the face of prepared defenses is hard. Really hard. The Ukrainians are doing a pretty good job of it. They're moving slowly, but trying very hard to not lose any more people or equipment than absolutely necessary. 

The Ukrainians still haven't committed much of their reserves. The ones that are well equipped and well trained. They're sitting back and waiting for the right opportunity.

The Ukrainian general staff has demonstrated their intelligence (smarts), strategic prowess, intelligence (info about the enemy), flexibility, care and concern for their troops and a whole lot of other things.
They know what they are doing. 

I have a pretty solid belief that there will be significant gains by the Ukrainians before the fall rains. Maybe not everything, but I'd bet they'll have Crimea cut off before winter.

[Phil1111 908]

17 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

A couple thoughts:

The Ukrainians are doing a very good job of attriting Russia's supplies....

I have a pretty solid belief that there will be significant gains by the Ukrainians before the fall rains. Maybe not everything, but I'd bet they'll have Crimea cut off before winter.

I agree but I'd add that US intelligence likely has allot to do with those targeting success. I would not be surprised if many NATO countries had their intelligence sections studying every Russian move in and around Ukraine. There are certainly lots of satellites available to feed such analysis.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

3 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

I agree but I'd add that US intelligence likely has allot to do with those targeting success. I would not be surprised if many NATO countries had their intelligence sections studying every Russian move in and around Ukraine. There are certainly lots of satellites available to feed such analysis.

 

3 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

I agree but I'd add that US intelligence likely has allot to do with those targeting success. I would not be surprised if many NATO countries had their intelligence sections studying every Russian move in and around Ukraine. There are certainly lots of satellites available to feed such analysis.

Oh yes. Western nations are providing huge amounts of information, in addition to physical supplies.

There are reports that Russian satellite imagery is badly degraded, while commercial Western satellite info is being provided to Ukraine.

How much military satellite info is being provided is still a secret (speculation runs from 'a lot' to 'just about everything').

Back in the early stages, there were NATO AWACS planes flying standard patterns over Poland and the Baltics. 
There was a lot of speculation that Ukraine was being given 'real-time' info that they could use to stop the Russians.

Putler blustered and threatened, as usual, but anyone who understood the situation and capabilities of both NATO and the Russians knew full well that he'd never even try to attack those planes. In part because he'd fail if he did try.

[Phil1111 908]

Evidently Russian officers gathered together a day ago to celebrate Naval Day. Ukrainian caterers were chosen to prepare the best foods that Crimea had to offer. Two officers died immediately and 17 others were hospitalized.

No word as to why Putin's caterer was not selected to host the upscale event.

[jakee 1,254]

It’s been a great week for the Russian Navy then.

A few days ago the Russians proudly announced they’d foiled a drone boat attack on one of the main Crimean dockyards. Today Ukraine released footage of one of those boats sneaking right up to a large Russian warship before exploding, and later spy footage of said warship listing extremely heavily with a tug  attached. 

[Phil1111 908]

23 hours ago, jakee said:

It’s been a great week for the Russian Navy then.

A few days ago the Russians proudly announced they’d foiled a drone boat attack on one of the main Crimean dockyards. Today Ukraine released footage of one of those boats sneaking right up to a large Russian warship before exploding, and later spy footage of said warship listing extremely heavily with a tug  attached. 

Plus several attacks on the Kerch bridge and damage to a Russian oil tanker near the Kerch bridge. A UK military think tank stated that Russia has lost over 2000 tanks to date.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

3 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Plus several attacks on the Kerch bridge and damage to a Russian oil tanker near the Kerch bridge. A UK military think tank stated that Russia has lost over 2000 tanks to date.

Fun fact:

Ukraine has lost a few hundred tanks in battle.

HOWEVER, they have captured a lot too.

They now have more tanks than they started with, due to the ones they've either captured or recovered.

The only real downside is that many of the ones they've recovered (taken after being abandoned by the crew) are in REALLY bad shape. Not damaged, just not maintained worth a damn.
So it takes a fair amount of work to get them useable again.

[ryoder 1,380]

3 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Fun fact:

Ukraine has lost a few hundred tanks in battle.

HOWEVER, they have captured a lot too.

They now have more tanks than they started with, due to the ones they've either captured or recovered.

The only real downside is that many of the ones they've recovered (taken after being abandoned by the crew) are in REALLY bad shape. Not damaged, just not maintained worth a damn.
So it takes a fair amount of work to get them useable again.

To be fair, have you ever tired to maintain an antique vehicle? It takes a lot of time and money, and parts are hard to find! :-(

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

2 minutes ago, ryoder said:

To be fair, have you ever tried to maintain an antique vehicle? It takes a lot of time and money, and parts are hard to find! :-(

Actually, yes.

I have a couple older cars. One 1983, one 1985.

Just like any vehicle, it's a LOT easier to keep up on the work than to catch up on it.

There are stories coming out of Ukraine that the oil in the engines of the captured tanks is something between tar and molasses.

When the boss sells all the motor oil and pockets the money, it doesn't get changed much.

OTOH, the Ukrainians seem to be able to keep their stuff operational.

If you put the time, effort and money into it, it's still a lot of work, but quite doable.

I have no personal experience with armored vehicles, but my understanding is that they are very 'maintenance heavy'. That is, they take a couple hours of maintenance every day they are operated.

Unlike 'kick the tire and check the oil' on a normal car, there's a lot that has to be checked, tightened and greased on a tank each and every day. 
The tracks that they use instead of wheels are excellent at traversing difficult terrain, but they need to have each and every joint between track sections checked and lubed every day.

And that's just the tracks. There's a bunch of different items that need serious attention. Which the Russians aren't funded, equipped (the bosses sold off most of the tools) or motivated to properly do.

 

[kallend 1,620]

16 minutes ago, ryoder said:

To be fair, have you ever tired to maintain an antique vehicle? It takes a lot of time and money, and parts are hard to find! :-(

I have:

 

[Phil1111 908]

4 hours ago, kallend said:

I have:

 

MG?

[kallend 1,620]

5 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

MG?

Yes.  1946 MG TC.

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

Yes.  1946 MG TC.

Did you bring that over when you immigrated ? It looks like RH drive. No XKE elsewhere in the garage?

[kallend 1,620]

15 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Did you bring that over when you immigrated ? It looks like RH drive. No XKE elsewhere in the garage?

Yes, I've had it since 1967; it was my first car.