Ukraine

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 hour ago, wmw999 said:

Is that like "if you're going to get raped, might as well lean back and enjoy it?"

Wendy P.

Well, after all, Trump was Putler's little bitch.

He publicly stated how much of a genius Putler was right after the invasion.

The first impeachment was for trying to withhold funds for the Ukrainian military.

Pretty sure 'lay back and enjoy it' is what Trump would have said to Ukraine.

[jakee 1,254]

Well this is, erm, what’s the opposite of comforting?

Russian SU27’s intercept and crash into US Reaper drone over Black Sea (International airspace).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64959498

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Well, somehow the FSB building in Rostov on Don caught on fire. This is just east of Ukraine, on the coast of the Sea of Azov.

According to the Russians, there was an electrical short that ignited stored fuel (really).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975202

I guess it's nice that they've cracked down on the unauthorized smoking that has cause so many fires & explosions recently.

[billvon 2,384]

27 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Well, somehow the FSB building in Rostov on Don caught on fire. This is just east of Ukraine, on the coast of the Sea of Azov.

According to the Russians, there was an electrical short that ignited stored fuel (really).

I suspect the fire may push some Rostov officials out upper story windows as well.

[rifleman 61]

ICC (International Criminal Court) in the Hague issues an arrest warrant for Putin - charged with war crimes including the "unlawful deportation" of children from Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/17/vladimir-putin-arrest-warrant-ukraine-war-crimes

[ryoder 1,381]

Another Putin critic meets with an accident. Remarkably, no mention of windows, door-knobs, or tea, in the story:

Newsweek: Russian Pop Star Who Criticized Putin Found Dead After Drowning

[jakee 1,254]

Something interesting has happened in Bakhmut. A few weeks ago pretty much every western outlet was predicting the complete fall of the city within days, and questioning the wisdom of Ukraine continuing to defend it and risk encirclement/loss of many troops. Today Zelenskiy visited the city. The fighting isn’t over, but it seems the Russian offensive has run out of steam. Maybe the Wagner / Army infighting has reached breaking point or maybe they’ve simply run out of soldiers and supplies in the region?

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, jakee said:

Something interesting has happened in Bakhmut. A few weeks ago pretty much every western outlet was predicting the complete fall of the city within days, and questioning the wisdom of Ukraine continuing to defend it and risk encirclement/loss of many troops. Today Zelenskiy visited the city. The fighting isn’t over, but it seems the Russian offensive has run out of steam. Maybe the Wagner / Army infighting has reached breaking point or maybe they’ve simply run out of soldiers and supplies in the region?

They are continuing to make very small gains. They are pouring more men and artillery into the area. Losing more troops and equipment every day. Wagner leads the way with army following up. It seems as if losses for Putin have declined as have the use of large assaulting forces has slowed.

For a while two weeks ago Ukrainian resupply could not travel into Bakhmut without suffering losses. That seems to have been taken care of now. Through the destruction of Russian artillery and widening the pocket.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

12 hours ago, jakee said:

Something interesting has happened in Bakhmut. A few weeks ago pretty much every western outlet was predicting the complete fall of the city within days, and questioning the wisdom of Ukraine continuing to defend it and risk encirclement/loss of many troops. Today Zelenskiy visited the city. The fighting isn’t over, but it seems the Russian offensive has run out of steam. Maybe the Wagner / Army infighting has reached breaking point or maybe they’ve simply run out of soldiers and supplies in the region?

Depending on who you believe, the Russian army is running out of everything  ('Russian army' includes Wagner).
Reports are that artillery usage has dropped significantly. Like maybe by 80%. Attacks by Russian infantry on Ukrainian positions have also fallen off. 
There's a pretty good probability that the 'Russian Winter Offensive' is done. Or almost done.

The Ukrainians have done a masterful job of bleeding the Russians white.

They set up strong defenses, and the Russians threw themselves at those defenses.
Human wave attacks, without armor support. Troops with virtually zero training, ancient weapons, little (or no) ammunition. Truly just 'cannon fodder'. In many cases, those 'attacking troops' were sent to die for the simple purpose of revealing where the Ukrainian defensive gun placements were.

They died en masse. 
Again, depending on who you believe, the Russians lost upwards of 30,000 'soldiers' attempting to take over Bakhmut. 'Soldiers' is in quotes because I don't really consider a draftee who is ten days out of induction, no training at all, thrown into a battle to be a 'real' soldier. Just a poor victim, one of many in this war.

And even if the Russians had taken Bakhmut, that was only ONE line of defense that the Ukrainians had in place. They could have fallen back a few kilometers, where there were even stronger defensive positions. 

With the western tanks beginning to arrive, along with a few fighter jets from Europe, the ability of the Ukrainians to conduct a 'Spring Offensive' is increasing every day. 
At the same time, the Russians are running out of everything. They've sent envoys around the world, trying to source ammunition, mainly artillery. 

The next couple months are going to be telling. If the Ukrainians can put together a solid offensive battle plan and execute it well, the Russians are going to be fucked. They're going to be pushed back and the Crimean Peninsula will be cut off. 

Look at the fall offensive that retook Kherson and most of the territory in the northern part of the country. When the Ukrainians had the upper hand, the Russians ran like rats. Or cockroaches.

If the Ukrainians can break through somewhere, it won't be a whole lot different. Right now, the only question is 'where?' And 'when?'

[gowlerk 1,903]

20 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

If the Ukrainians can break through somewhere, it won't be a whole lot different. Right now, the only question is 'where?' And 'when?'

I was just looking at Google maps to see the original border (pre-2014) between Ukraine and Russia. It is a crazy zigzagging line of nearly no natural boundaries. It is totally indefensible. I can't imagine what the end game might be, but I'm pretty certain it won't be the original border. 

[Phil1111 908]

IMO the logical line of attack for Ukrainians would be from their current positions directly north of Mariupol. Then attack south to Mariupol. That distance is about 50 miles.

Then use the recently supplied JDAM-ER bombs to take out the Putin bridge...er Crimean bridge. This would cut off the entirety of the Crimean peninsula and Russian positions west of that line of attack. Russia could then only supply their forces by sea or air.

Presumably Russian prisoners have heard about the survival rates for Wagner contractors.Thus limiting the resupply of fodder from Russian prisons.

12 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Depending on who you believe, the Russian army is running out of everything  ('Russian army' includes Wagner)....

Agree.

From an interview with Ukrainian tankers: "

“They are about to go into battle and they are laughing like horses,” Poltava said. “Morale, psychology is OK. They are tired, but they still have a sense of humor.”

The tank unit spends most days lying in wait to ambush Russian troops and engaging them in direct fire fights. “It’s hunting the hunter,” a tank commander, Svyatosha, 38, said with a grin.

“It’s the best job,” he said. “They feed you, dress you, give you an expensive tank, fuel it, give you ammunition. And they don’t charge you money for that. What’s not to like?”

Edited March 23, 2023 by Phil1111

[Erroll 49]

13 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Depending on who you believe, the Russian army is running out of everything 

To what extent do you think the "Çhinese connection" is likely to affect the Russian war effort?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

8 hours ago, Erroll said:

To what extent do you think the "Çhinese connection" is likely to affect the Russian war effort?

That's a good question.

My guess would be 'not all that much'.

#1 - The Chinese know full well that if they give substantial support to Russia, the 'West' will impose sanctions. They need the west to buy all their stuff. If that gets even slowed down much, the Chinese economy will suffer.

#2 - Even if the Chinese sell the Russians a bunch of arms & ammunition (the ammo is currently what's desperately needed), getting it from China into Russia is the easy part. Getting it from the east to the west is harder. Getting it from Moscow to the Ukrainian border is harder. Getting it into Ukraine and to the front is much harder.

The Ukrainians have gotten pretty good at destroying the storage areas. The partisans tell them where the Russians are staging stuff and the Ukrainians use that info, along with the HIMARS to destroy the stuff before it reaches the front lines.
If the Ukrainians can start to suppress the Russian air defenses, then they can start to use air support to both help their attacks and to further destroy Russian supplies behind the lines. The MiG-29s that are coming will help that, but nobody really knows how much it will help.
If the Ukrainians can push the Russians back some, then more of the Russian supply lines become vulnerable. 

The accurate long range artillery has shown to be vital for this.

Fighting on their own territory, with partisan assets providing some really good intelligence on the Russians has also been important.

I think that the war will be decided by mid-summer. Probably not 'over', but the outcome will become clear. 
I think Ukraine is going to prevail. I believe they are going to expel all the Russians from Ukrainian territory, reclaiming all the territory Russia has occupied since 2014.

But that isn't certain. 

We shall see.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

There isn't a whole lot about this war that is 'funny'.

But there are a few things.

Poland and Slovakia are sending Soviet era MiG-29s to Ukraine.

Russia is not happy with that.

They claim (correctly) that the original purchase agreement included guarantees that neither country would re-export them without permission. This is a very standard thing, often called an 'end user certificate'. This prevents countries that aren't supposed to get weapons from getting them.
This is why the Germans had to agree to Leopard tanks going to Ukraine, even if they were coming from countries other than Germany (they came from Finland, Poland and a couple other places).

Russia has said "This is a gross violation by Bratislava of its obligations to re-export military equipment manufactured by the Russian Federation".

Except those planes didn't come from the "Russian Federation". They came from the Soviet Union.
And they weren't manufactured in the Russian Federation. They were made in...
Ukraine.

Really.

https://en.newizv.ru/news/2023-03-24/russia-slovakia-violated-the-rules-of-re-export-by-transferring-the-mig-29-to-kiev-402126

[ryoder 1,381]

10 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

They claim (correctly) that the original purchase agreement included guarantees that neither country would re-export them without permission.

They countries involved should tell Russia they will start adhering to that agreement, after Russia starts adhering to the Budapest Memorandum.

Edited March 27, 2023 by ryoder

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

2 hours ago, ryoder said:

They countries involved should tell Russia they will start adhering to that agreement, after Russia starts adhering to the Budapest Memorandum.

Well, not unlike the Budapest Memorandum, there's no real 'legal enforcement' for end user certificates.

The main consequence seems to be that the exporter can refuse to export any more stuff to the violator. 

So Slovakia & Poland (both current NATO members) won't be able to buy shitty Russian planes and 'jack in the box' tanks any more. Or spare parts. 

It's a genuine problem for anyone who wants to operate them long-term. Some parts are available through Poland, but not engines.

But, for now, Ukraine using former Soviet aircraft, that were made in Ukraine, to attack the Russians is something approaching poetic justice.

[Phil1111 908]

The same thing happened when Iran went off the rails. US made F-14s were its most advanced A/C and the US stopped supplying parts.

"If war breaks out, American forces likely will attempt to secure Gulf air space by destroying or suppressing Iran’s air forces. The regular Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force and the air wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps militia together operate around 700 aircraft.

The IRIAF’s 1970s-vintage F-14s could be U.S. forces’ first targets. According to a survey by Flight Global, the Iranian air force in 2019 operates around 24 F-14 Tomcats from a batch of 79 of the Grumman-made, swing-wing fighters that Iran acquired in the mid-1970s before the Islamic revolution.

The U.S. Navy retired its last Tomcat in 2006. But with its long range and powerful radar, the F-14 remains one of the world’s most capable fighters. For that reason, the Americans for many years have been trying to ground the Ayatollah’s F-14s.

Sixty-eight of Iran’s F-14s survived the Iran-Iraq War that ended in 1988. Sanctions that the United States imposed after the 1979 revolution prevented Iran from openly acquiring spare parts for the heavyweight fighters."

[ryoder 1,381]

6 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

The same thing happened when Iran went off the rails. US made F-14s were its most advanced A/C and the US stopped supplying parts.

This was something that amused me while watching "Top Gun: Maverick": The enemy was never named, but it had F14's; There was only one country who ever received F-14's from the US.

[ryoder 1,381]

21 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

So Slovakia & Poland (both current NATO members) won't be able to buy shitty Russian planes and 'jack in the box' tanks any more. Or spare parts.

I would expect both of them to be begging for a deal to send their MIG-29's to Ukraine in exchange for a backfill of F-16's, (or comparable a/c), just so they would be able to get parts.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 minute ago, ryoder said:

I would expect both of them to be begging for a deal to send their MIG-29's to Ukraine in exchange for a backfill of F-16's, (or comparable a/c), just so they would be able to get parts.

That's part of it.

The other thing is that F-16s are 'NATO compatible'.

All the stuff that they need to completely integrate into NATO command & control are there.

Not so with the MiGs

[ryoder 1,381]

Good to know Ukraine is keeping their sense of humor:

 

[Phil1111 908]

Putin has evidently burned through the 300,000 conscripts from the draft last fall. They lie buried in trenches in Ukraine. Buried in graveyards in small villages across Russia.

So now its time for 400,000 volunteer contract soldiers to man the trenches. They used to man the tanks and IFVs. But those are also all gone.

Putin has now removed the age limit for new contract soldiers. No word yet if WW2 veterans are signing up. They will receive special "expertise" bonuses. Because operators for T-34 tanks are in short supply.

"Russia's ministry of defense has acquired thirty old T-34 tanks sparking speculation the Soviet medium tank that was introduced in 1940 could soon be reintroduced to the battlefields of Ukraine. Putin's military has been faced with the challenge of fielding tanks able to compete with the modern armour soon to be supplied to Ukraine such as the US Abrams and the British Challenger 2."

[JerryBaumchen 1,047]

54 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Putin has evidently burned through the 300,000 conscripts from the draft last fall. They lie buried in trenches in Ukraine. Buried in graveyards in small villages across Russia.

So now its time for 400,000 volunteer contract soldiers to man the trenches. They used to man the tanks and IFVs. But those are also all gone.

Putin has now removed the age limit for new contract soldiers. No word yet if WW2 veterans are signing up. They will receive special "expertise" bonuses. Because operators for T-34 tanks are in short supply.

"Russia's ministry of defense has acquired thirty old T-34 tanks sparking speculation the Soviet medium tank that was introduced in 1940 could soon be reintroduced to the battlefields of Ukraine. Putin's military has been faced with the challenge of fielding tanks able to compete with the modern armour soon to be supplied to Ukraine such as the US Abrams and the British Challenger 2."

Hi Phil,

They can put this on Putin's headstone:  a drowning man will clutch at a straw meaning, origin, example sentence, definition, synonym (theidioms.com)

Jerry Baumchen

[billvon 2,384]

In a move that is more Trump than Trump himself, the Russian government is calling for the arrests of all the judges who issued an arrest warrant for Putin for kidnapping children out of Ukraine.  And everyone else who is against them.

Andrey Klishas: "Russia should immediately issue a warrant for the arrest of all ICC judges."

MP Vladimir Dzhabarov: "The Basmanny Court in Moscow should issue an arrest warrant for all members of the ICC."  Not just the judges - all of them.

Leonid Slutsky: the ICC should arrest Zelenskyy, "his pack, and their Western backers".

[jakee 1,254]

3 hours ago, Slim King said:

Negotiate PEACE NOW or watch another 10,000 needlessly die.

Yes, Russia really should retreat back to their borders and make peace, shouldn’t they?