Ukraine

[billvon 2,380]

48 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

Russia detonating NBCW in Ukraine risks fall-out drifting over Russian farms and ruining their productivity.

Yep.  But if it comes down to (in Putin's mind) reducing Russian farm productivity vs. surviving, he may take survival.

[murps2000 86]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

We're heading into a particularly dangerous phase now.  Putin is losing - badly - and his sham referendum will serve to further back him into a corner.  When it comes back showing that 96% of Ukranians believe that they are Russians and are begging for Putin to protect them, he will lose the option to say "well, the people there are crazy Nazis so we're just going to leave them to their insanity."

So where does he go from here?  He can throw all those new conscripts onto the field.   But just as his attempts to use prisoners showed, those conscripts are going to see a lot of benefits in surrendering and spending the rest of the war somewhere safe.  And he can no longer adequately arm them.

He can fly missions to reduce Ukrainian cities to rubble.  But he's tried that already.  Didn't change the course of the war.

That leaves tactical NBC weapons.  And while most of his nuclear weapons are no doubt junk by this point, he has over 1000 - so the odds are that one will work.  And that will escalate VERY quickly.  The Ukrainains have the ability to hit points within Russia but have not done so because they just want the war over.  That will change once nukes get used.

And chemical or biological weapons will cause such a global stink that the repercussions of that might well be worse than anything that is happening right now inside Russia.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-warns-russia-of-catastrophic-consequences-if-it-uses-nukes-in-ukraine-11664141192?mod=home-page
 

Other than that they will be catastrophic there’s no word publicly on what the consequences will be, but supposedly the Russians have already been made aware of what will come next.

[jakee 1,254]

1 hour ago, riggerrob said:

Russia detonating NBCW in Ukraine risks fall-out drifting over Russian farms and ruining their productivity.

In other news they’ve (probably) just blown up their own gas pipelines to Northern Europe purely to make the EU uncomfortable moving towards winter. Putin is more than happy to cut Russia’s nose off if it means spiting someone else’s face. Heck, as the leader of Russia, not caring about Russians is one of the pre-requisites of the job.

 

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

45 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep.  But if it comes down to (in Putin's mind) reducing Russian farm productivity vs. surviving, he may take survival.

If Putin uses NBC, his chances for survival go down.

Both for him personally and for Russia as a whole. I'd think he's well aware of this.

His use of them would be far more of a 'final fuck you' than attempting to survive.

As I noted earlier, I'm HOPING that the people in charge of actually activating the NBC stuff realize this and either refuse (very dangerous) or have 'technical issues' that prevent them from using them (still dangerous, but less so).

[gowlerk 1,902]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

Yep.  But if it comes down to (in Putin's mind) reducing Russian farm productivity vs. surviving, he may take survival.

You would think he is aware that he would not survive that. But he may not care anymore.

[Phil1111 908]

His use of NBC weapons would likely arise from some sort of false flag operation. A chem or bio attack on one of his new Russian states in Ukraine.Killing a bunch of "new Russian" citizen-patriots. He would blame it on the US-Ukrainian weapons lab that republicans and other right wingers only seem to be aware of.

Or perhaps a staged attack on Russian territory that "discovers" US made weapons as the cause of attack.

[jakee 1,254]

That is a very good point. Remember that early in the war Russia was claiming one reason they’d had to invade was to preemptively defend themselves against US funded bio-weapons labs in Ukraine (I believe our two new friends were parroting that one). Putin might think he can go ahead with a chemical or biological strike and say ‘see - we told you the Ukrainians were playing with dangerous research and it just backfired on them!’

[billvon 2,380]

19 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Or perhaps a staged attack on Russian territory that "discovers" US made weapons as the cause of attack.

Yep.  Consider all the republicans, for example, who still believe that the US invasion of Iraq found WMD's.  And Russia clearly believes they can control the media both in Russia and the US.  Heck, just claim that they found the plans for the Ukrainian chemical weapons plant on Hunter's laptop.

 

[Phil1111 908]

25 minutes ago, jakee said:

... (I believe our two new friends were parroting that one). ...

They have been absent for a while. You don't think they've gone off to boot camp do you?

[billvon 2,380]

11 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

They have been absent for a while. You don't think they've gone off to boot camp do you?

They are getting a little time off for attacks/trolling.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

2 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

His use of NBC weapons would likely arise from some sort of false flag operation. A chem or bio attack on one of his new Russian states in Ukraine.Killing a bunch of "new Russian" citizen-patriots. He would blame it on the US-Ukrainian weapons lab that republicans and other right wingers only seem to be aware of.

Or perhaps a staged attack on Russian territory that "discovers" US made weapons as the cause of attack.

Don't forget that before the invasion, the US said that Putin was going to do something very similar to justify the invasion. Since it was widely publicized, Putin didn't bother trying.

I don't know if the Russians have tightened up their communications security enough that the US wouldn't know if they planned something like this, but I'd hope that we'd have advanced warning of it.

It's been hinted in the media that US intelligence has been useful in Ukraine taking back all the territory they have.

[Phil1111 908]

3 hours ago, billvon said:

They are getting a little time off for attacks/trolling.

Mods in SC must have broad shoulders. What if they both get served with call up notices, then its off to Ukraine? Then they both get planted in a sunflower field because of a lack of ammo. The FSB doesn't take too kindly to failure.

[ryoder 1,380]

5 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Mods in SC must have broad shoulders. What if they both get served with call up notices, then its off to Ukraine? Then they both get planted in a sunflower field because of a lack of ammo. The FSB doesn't take too kindly to failure.

Not to worry. All the info they need is here:

Visit Ukraine: How to surrender: step-by-step instructions for Russians and forcibly mobilized Ukrainians

[jakee 1,254]

Just thinking, months ago we were talking about the Ukrainian neutrality / protection treaty that was signed when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. IIRC that treaty obliges signatories to intervene directly if Ukraine is attacked with nuclear weapons of any kind. I don’t think the same obligation was written for bio or chemical but the Russians might be getting told that it will all be treated the same, and they’ll be getting up close and personal with a wave of F15s, F35s and Typhoons the day after any such attack.

Edited September 28, 2022 by jakee

[Phil1111 908]

2 hours ago, jakee said:

Just thinking, months ago we were talking about the Ukrainian neutrality / protection treaty that was signed when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. IIRC that treaty obliges signatories to intervene directly if Ukraine is attacked with nuclear weapons of any kind. I don’t think the same obligation was written for bio or chemical but the Russians might be getting told that it will all be treated the same, and they’ll be getting up close and personal with a wave of F15s, F35s and Typhoons the day after any such attack.

Oh heck that agreement is now over 30 years old. Russia has forgotten about it. Do you think the UK or the US even still have copies of it. Ukraine has had its territory seized. Likely 60-70k killed and another 150k of its citizens wounded.

"There were 176 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers with some 1,240 warheads on Ukrainian territory. This force consisted of 130 SS-19s, each capable of delivering six nuclear weapons, and 46 SS-24s, each armed with ten nuclear weapons. An additional 14 SS-24 missiles were present in Ukraine, but not operationally deployed with warheads. Several dozen bombers with strategic nuclear capabilities were armed with some 600 air-launched missiles, along with gravity bombs. In addition, as many as 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons rounded out an arsenal totaling approximately 5,000 strategic and tactical weapons."

The Ukrainian ghosts of children, mothers and old men. Who wander the land now certainly have no faith in the US and the UK. The young soldiers born after the treaty who are now dead. Had wondered how its leaders could have been so stupid, so gullible.

The only real lessons of this treaty were reinforced for N. Korea and Iran. Trust nobody when it comes to your security. Especially the big powers. Today Russia sits on the security council. A failing rump of a country with a GDP only slightly above South Korea. It threatens the world with nuclear war with impunity. Yet it keeps its veto provisions. All because of its 6,300 nukes. Perhaps if Ukraine kept its weapons it would have a seat on that same council now. perhaps it would be living in peace with secure borders.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Phil1111

[jakee 1,254]

34 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Ukraine has had its territory seized. Likely 60-70k killed and another 150k of its citizens wounded.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, no one signed up to defend them from that - and Putin successfully scared the west away from directly confronting him. Protecting them from WMD attack is what was signed up to and it does change the dynamic.

[Phil1111 908]

On 9/27/2022 at 8:43 PM, ryoder said:

Not to worry. All the info they need is here:

Visit Ukraine: How to surrender: step-by-step instructions for Russians and forcibly mobilized Ukrainians

Da message received.

Conscripted Russian Soldier Immediately Surrenders to Ukraine Forces

[Bigfalls 110]

13 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Da message received.

Conscripted Russian Soldier Immediately Surrenders to Ukraine Forces

As a going away present for the conscripted soldiers, their family should give them a white handkerchief for good luck. 

Available from amazon for $9.49 for a package of 9, 100% cotton.

[ryoder 1,380]

Uh, oh! Sergei Melikov, (head of Dagestan), better stay away from the windows:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575570319104184321

[ryoder 1,380]

Looks like those Russian conscripts are ready to fight after all:

Furious Russian conscripts beat up commander who called them 'meat for the slaughter'

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

6 hours ago, ryoder said:

Uh, oh! Sergei Melikov, (head of Dagestan), better stay away from the windows:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575570319104184321

Scrolled down from that one. 

Found this one:

I wouldn't mess with that cat. No way.

Edited September 30, 2022 by wolfriverjoe

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

On 9/28/2022 at 8:22 PM, Phil1111 said:

Da message received.

Conscripted Russian Soldier Immediately Surrenders to Ukraine Forces

Hi Phil,

I would surrender too:  “This is not going to produce well-trained, well-equipped, cohesive troops and units,” he said. “It’s going to produce cannon fodder.” 

Petraeus: War in Ukraine ‘looks very dire indeed for Vladimir Putin’ | The Hill

Jerry Baumchen

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Phil,

I would surrender too:  “This is not going to produce well-trained, well-equipped, cohesive troops and units,” he said. “It’s going to produce cannon fodder.” 

Petraeus: War in Ukraine ‘looks very dire indeed for Vladimir Putin’ | The Hill

Jerry Baumchen

Imagine these conscripts landing in the front lines in the next few weeks. They were promised training. No training. They imagined the great and powerful Russian army. They find out that the rest of the units that they get plugged into have been decimated. Find out that command is a joke. Supply intermittent or nonexistent. Morale nonexistent. No Nazis to be found anywhere. Hostile locals who aren't looking for the tremendous benefits of Russian citizenship. Instead of welcoming locals with flowers. Locals ready to frag you.

Putin MRGA  one dead citizen at a time.

[riggerrob 558]

Folks, please remember that most of these recently-conscripted Russian soldiers already have a year or two or military training from back when they were conscripted as teenagers. Many European nations continued conscription of teenagers well into the 21st century. Some former conscripts have totally forgotten what was taught back, then while others may have longer military service.

In any case, the latest batch of Russian conscripts still need some refresher training on the latest weapons and the latest Ukrainian tactics. The silly Ukrainian Army have discarded some Soviet tactics while simultaneously adopting a few NATO tactics.

[Phil1111 908]

52 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

Folks, please remember that most of these recently-conscripted Russian soldiers already have a year or two or military training from back when they were conscripted as teenagers. Many European nations continued conscription of teenagers well into the 21st century. Some former conscripts have totally forgotten what was taught back, then while others may have longer military service.

In any case, the latest batch of Russian conscripts still need some refresher training on the latest weapons and the latest Ukrainian tactics. The silly Ukrainian Army have discarded some Soviet tactics while simultaneously adopting a few NATO tactics.

There is extensive reporting in multiple media sources. Where anybody with a pulse who is male is getting served with papers. No military experience required.

"Russian pensioners, men with disabilities, and individuals without military training, or even combat experience are reportedly receiving conscription notices to serve in Russia's armed forces in the war in Ukraine. DW was able to confirm these reports by speaking to individuals within Russia about how recruitment offices are going about drafting soldiers."

“Call-up notices are being served to everyone. Nobody knows who will receive one tomorrow and therefore we decided with friends for the time being to rest in a beautiful country,” said Roman Isif, a Russian who crossed into Larsi, Georgia, in an interview with AP."

"Despite assurances that Russia would be seeking men who had recently served in the army and had combat experience, activists pointed to a number of cases of men in their 50s receiving draft notices.

One woman said a 52-year-old relative had been delivered a povestka shortly before the president announced the draft the previous day.'

“Now You Can’t Even Leave Your City In Russia!” - Russian Soldier’s Wife About Mobilization

Edited October 2, 2022 by Phil1111