Ukraine

[SkyDekker 1,121]

36 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

And because the people in Crimea did not object.

Didn't you earlier say the "situation on the ground changes everything". Ever think the people of Crimea have changed their opinion considering the "situation on the ground?"

[Phil1111 910]

9 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Didn't you earlier say the "situation on the ground changes everything". Ever think the people of Crimea have changed their opinion considering the "situation on the ground?"

"NARIMAN DZHELALOV: (Through interpreter) Today in Crimea there's an atmosphere of fear. Only that small group of people who are completely in love with Putin feel comfortable saying what they think. Anybody with a critical viewpoint will be rather afraid." from my earlier quote.

Now that Putin is cracking down on traitors, scum and fifth columnists. I'm sure everyone in Crimea and the Donbas is 100% for Putin and war in general. er "Special military operations".

[gowlerk 1,911]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

Didn't you earlier say the "situation on the ground changes everything". Ever think the people of Crimea have changed their opinion considering the "situation on the ground?"

They may have. I mean it is possible. But we don't have any reason to think it is so. It may become so someday if Ukraine becomes strong and free while Russia becomes even more authoritarian. The situation on the ground I was alluding to is the lack of success the invasion is having and the losses Russia is taking. I have seen no sign of a backlash in Crimea. 

What I am saying is that Crimea will not be recovered. I am not saying anything about the disputed territories in eastern Ukraine. Although I suspect that any end to the conflict will have to involve at least some of that territory being ceded as well. The only way it can be different is by defeating Russia militarily and pushing them out. Ukraine is never going to be able to do that. They will be hard pressed to defend their cities that are under siege. The only way Russia returns to 2014 boundaries is if the west engages in a large scale invasion. No one wants that. 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

They may have. I mean it is possible. But we don't have any reason to think it is so. It may become so someday if Ukraine becomes strong and free while Russia becomes even more authoritarian. The situation on the ground I was alluding to is the lack of success the invasion is having and the losses Russia is taking. I have seen no sign of a backlash in Crimea. 

What I am saying is that Crimea will not be recovered. I am not saying anything about the disputed territories in eastern Ukraine. Although I suspect that any end to the conflict will have to involve at least some of that territory being ceded as well. The only way it can be different is by defeating Russia militarily and pushing them out. Ukraine is never going to be able to do that. They will be hard pressed to defend their cities that are under siege. The only way Russia returns to 2014 boundaries is if the west engages in a large scale invasion. No one wants that. 

You seemed to imply that the people of Crimea were indifferent to Russian control, or at least at the time time unwilling to fight against Russian control.

That sentiment may no longer be true, if ever present.

[gowlerk 1,911]

7 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

You seemed to imply that the people of Crimea were indifferent to Russian control, or at least at the time time unwilling to fight against Russian control.

Not exactly. Because what I have read about it indicates that the people of Crimea were not indifferent at all. They largely approved of the Russian take over. Everything I have seen published about the event indicates that the Russians were welcomed. I am not there so I can't know for sure but I have seen no indication that anything has changed on this front. Many observers think that this set of facts played a large part in Putin's apparent mis-calculation.

Edited March 18, 2022 by gowlerk

[ryoder 1,382]

And I assume they brought their big clanking balls with them:

The Guardian: Russian cosmonauts board ISS wearing colours of Ukraine flag

[Phil1111 910]

An American who owns a MiG-29 isn't sure the fighter jets would help Ukraine much

Above is an interesting story from NBC news. But it misses an essential element in the air campaign over Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force has been reported to be running between 5-10 air combat missions per day by manned aircraft. Russian and Ukraine both have active S-300 SAM systems in Ukraine now. With the possibility of "Slovakia’s defense minister on Thursday said the country would “immediately” provide its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine if it’s guaranteed a “proper replacement” in the near term."

The Ukrainians who are operating Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones successfully now. Should be easy prey for Russian combat aircraft including armed helicopters. Easy prey for Russian AA systems. Yet they continue operations. Clearly Ukraine has the airspace control to de-conflict all of the above factors. Such that they don't shoot down their own aircraft. That they are avoiding Russian actions to shoot down Ukrainian air assets.

This could be as a result of shared information from 24 hour AWACS aircraft operating out of NATO airspace on the western border of Ukraine.

[riggerrob 558]

On 3/18/2022 at 9:44 AM, SkyDekker said:

You seemed to imply that the people of Crimea were indifferent to Russian control, or at least at the time time unwilling to fight against Russian control.

That sentiment may no longer be true, if ever present.

If you watch some of "history legends'" videos on www.youtube.com you will realize that much of what is being done today - in South Eastern Ukraine - is merely unfinished business left over from 2014.

Russia/Soviet Union only controlled Crimea for a couple of hundred years because they needed an ice-free port for international trade. During that period, large numbers of Russian-speaking sailors were posted to Sebastapol and many retired there, producing a Russian-speaking majority.

When the USSR collapsed economically in 1989, they were too poor to retain large bureaucracies in many of the 'stans, Balkans, Ukraine, etc. so wrote an odd sort of co-government with Keeve.

While Crimea has a marvellously warm climate - by Russian standards - it is also a dry climate and Crimean farmers depended upon water pumped in from the Dneiper River hundreds of kilometers to the North. After the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, Ukrainians dumped hundreds of tons of concrete rubble in the North Crimean Canal. They later build a proper concrete dam to completely close water exports to Crimea.

During the first day (24 February 2022) of the current invasion, Russian troops reached the shores of the Dneiper river, due north of Crimea. Then they made a big show of dynamiting the rubble dam. It will probably take them months to completely restore water flow to Crimea, maybe not even in time for the 2022 farming season.

Meanwhile, fighting continues around Mariupol to clear a land link from Russia to Crimea.

The invasion of Northern Ukraine is more of a political issue, with more resistance than expected. Mind you, Russian troops still needed to schedule re-fueling stops on the outskirts of Keeve before they could capture the capital city. The slow an messy fighting around Keeve and Kharkov makes us wonder if that is just a smokescreen for Russia's real goals.

Finally, if Russians continue their invasion Northwards along the Dneiper River, they may force the Ukrainian Army to retreat from Eastern Ukraine rather than risk encirclement. One possible bad conclusion sees the new Ukrainian/Russian border along the Dneiper River.

Peace negotiations are stumbling forward at an awkward pace. Some of the Russian demands are ridiculous, but others are doable. For example, Ukraine can cheerfully agree to Russian demands to root out all "fascists" in Ukraine. Since the Ukrainian President Zelinski is from a Jewish family, and most Ukrainian families have miserable memories of the German Fascist occupation during World War 2. This looks easy on paper, but the devil is in the details because the Russian definition of "fascist" really means "anti-Mr. Poutine." If Ukraine are smart, they will insist on judges from the Hague monitoring the "de-fascism" process in Ukraine.

At the least, Ukraine will lose the Russian-speaking majority provinces in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but retain the ice-free port of Odessa. Ukraine will also lose control of the North Crimean Canal and some of the shoreline of the Dnieper River. One miserable compromise is losing all territories East of the Dnieper River. The worst case scenario sees Ukraine reverting to being the puppet state of Russia that she has been on-and-off for hundreds of years.

[ryoder 1,382]

Is there a bag limit on Russian generals? Asking for a friend.

Ukraine Claims To Have Killed Fifth Russian General Since Start of the War

[Phil1111 910]

1 hour ago, ryoder said:

Is there a bag limit on Russian generals? Asking for a friend.

Ukraine Claims To Have Killed Fifth Russian General Since Start of the War

It seems as if Ukrainian are jamming Russian military frequencies and or intercepting them. Some reports have been made to the effect that unscrambled cell phone calls.  Located their whereabouts which Ukrainians then decided to send a couple troops to welcome them

General Roman Gavrilov, the deputy head of the national guard, was arrested. Evidently President Putin didn't like the answers he received for failures on the battlefield. No reports yet as to whether he is deceased, yet.

[jakee 1,254]

9 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

It seems as if Ukrainian are jamming Russian military frequencies and or intercepting them. Some reports have been made to the effect that unscrambled cell phone calls.  Located their whereabouts which Ukrainians then decided to send a couple troops to welcome them

The reports have been* that the new Russian secure phone system runs on 3G/4G, and it is the Russians' own attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure that have stopped it from working in the areas where Russia has been involved in fierce fighting. 

 

* They all seem to quote the claims of one Twitter account so I'm not going to say they're definitely true.

[Phil1111 910]

"on March 3, the Kremlin circulated a talking point to state-run media outlets telling them it was of the utmost importance to run Carlson’s commentary. “It is essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who sharply criticizes the actions of the United States [and] NATO, their negative role in unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, [and] the defiantly provocative behavior from the leadership of the Western countries and NATO towards the Russian Federation and towards President Putin, personally,” the 12-page document reportedly said, noting that Carlson’s position was that “Russia is only protecting its interests and security.”

[JoeWeber 2,299]

6 hours ago, ryoder said:

Is there a bag limit on Russian generals? Asking for a friend.

Ukraine Claims To Have Killed Fifth Russian General Since Start of the War

Apparently, they're also knocking off some Colonels and Majors. I wonder who has the capability to identify the location of these senior officers and pass it off to the Ukrainians in real time? Slovakia? And you have to love those guys. They're happy to send all of their S-300 Air Defense systems to Ukraine just as soon as someone can promise equal or better replacements. Great way to upgrade while the getting is good.

Edited March 20, 2022 by JoeWeber

[headoverheels 291]

6 hours ago, ryoder said:

Is there a bag limit on Russian generals? Asking for a friend.

Ukraine Claims To Have Killed Fifth Russian General Since Start of the War

No limit.  They are a non-native invasive species.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

15 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Apparently, they're also knocking off some Colonels and Majors. I wonder who has the capability to identify the location of these senior officers and pass it off to the Ukrainians in real time? Slovakia? And you have to love those guys. They're happy to send all of their S-300 Air Defense systems to Ukraine just as soon as someone can promise equal or better replacements. Great way to upgrade while the getting is good.

Patriot systems are arriving in Slovakia now. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovakia-starts-deploying-patriot-air-defence-system-minister-2022-03-20/  I guess we'll soon learn what Russia will risk once the S-300's start transferring to Ukraine.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

12 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Patriot systems are arriving in Slovakia now. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovakia-starts-deploying-patriot-air-defence-system-minister-2022-03-20/  I guess we'll soon learn what Russia will risk once the S-300's start transferring to Ukraine.

Hi Joe,

From your link:  The minister said last week that Slovakia is willing to give the S-300 to Ukraine if and when it gets a proper replacement.

If NATO ( and the US is a part of NATO ) is willing to give these unmarked arms to Ukraine, then why in the world can we ( NATO ) not give them unmarked aircraft.

Also, from your link:  Russia has warned against any shipments of advanced air defences to Ukraine and has warned it may target Western arms supplies.

Since we are giving a lot of arms to Ukraine, I wonder just where Putin's line in the sand really is.  Just what does Putin consider advanced air defences?

It is obvious to me that the might of the Russian army is really not much.

Jerry Baumchen

[ryoder 1,382]

3 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

From your link:  The minister said last week that Slovakia is willing to give the S-300 to Ukraine if and when it gets a proper replacement.

If NATO ( and the US is a part of NATO ) is willing to give these unmarked arms to Ukraine, then why in the world can we ( NATO ) not give them unmarked aircraft.

Also, from your link:  Russia has warned against any shipments of advanced air defences to Ukraine and has warned it may target Western arms supplies.

Since we are giving a lot of arms to Ukraine, I wonder just where Putin's line in the sand really is.  Just what does Putin consider advanced air defences?

It is obvious to me that the might of the Russian army is really not much.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[JoeWeber 2,299]

3 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

From your link:  The minister said last week that Slovakia is willing to give the S-300 to Ukraine if and when it gets a proper replacement.

If NATO ( and the US is a part of NATO ) is willing to give these unmarked arms to Ukraine, then why in the world can we ( NATO ) not give them unmarked aircraft.

Also, from your link:  Russia has warned against any shipments of advanced air defences to Ukraine and has warned it may target Western arms supplies.

Since we are giving a lot of arms to Ukraine, I wonder just where Putin's line in the sand really is.  Just what does Putin consider advanced air defences?

It is obvious to me that the might of the Russian army is really not much.

Jerry Baumchen

It's what we can get away with at the time, that's all. Maybe it's that MIG's are offensive in nature can hit any Russian forces in Ukraine and Air Defense Batteries are inherently defensive weapons. Got me, we'll just have to wait and see.

[ryoder 1,382]

So it appears the megalomaniac sociopath is looking for toadies to take the blame for his own idiocy:

WSJ: Recriminations And Finger-Pointing In Moscow As War Turns Into “Embarrassing Morass” For Russia

[ryoder 1,382]

With the blessing of The Clash, a Ukrainian band has done a modified cover of "London Calling".

Story: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/kyiv-calling-famous-clash-anthem-reborn-as-call-to-arms-beton

 

Edited March 20, 2022 by ryoder

[JoeWeber 2,299]

3 hours ago, ryoder said:

So it appears the megalomaniac sociopath is looking for toadies to take the blame for his own idiocy:

WSJ: Recriminations And Finger-Pointing In Moscow As War Turns Into “Embarrassing Morass” For Russia

An article in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/russia-bombed-mariupol-art-school-sheltering-400-people-says-ukraine suggests that Russia may be forcing deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russia. It's a long way from being confirmed and smacks of a wound reopening dog whistle. But, it caused my inner snowflake to think that were it true it might be a bright line crossed that would demand more involvement. 

[billvon 2,396]

4 hours ago, ryoder said:

So it appears the megalomaniac sociopath is looking for toadies to take the blame for his own idiocy:

WSJ: Recriminations And Finger-Pointing In Moscow As War Turns Into “Embarrassing Morass” For Russia

You know, I didn't think the west's resistance would be so successful.  I really thought this would be over in two weeks.  But now it's going on three weeks, and while Russia is making progress, Ukraine has become a dumpster fire of Russia's failed ambitions and glaring weaknesses.  Russian generals are being killed left and right.  Ukrainians are making off with tanks and armored personnel carriers.  Ukranian drone operators are having a field day againt Russian armor, and it looks like the Russians don't have a clue as to how to stop them.

And closer to home for Putin the shit is hitting the fan.  Russia barely mananged to not default on an international loan payment recently.  That means that Putin has perhaps a month before the next payment comes due, and he is under trememdous pressure to have a success and end this before then.  And that means that when he gets to the barganing table, his position is greatly weakened.  Any deal that lets him claim a victory is going to look better and better to him.  It's looking like Ukraine may be able to retain their autonomy, something that didn't look possible three weeks ago.

And much of that is due to the cooperation of the west to boycott Russian goods.  Sure. it's making gas prices higher and making life miserable for Americans.  But it's working.  And if we can win this "war" - or even just get Ukraine a partial win at the truce table - that 'pain at the pump' will be more than worth it.  A victory of this sort without a single US soldier dying?  Without an open Russia/NATO conflict?  That's huge.  Good for us, and for all the other countries who honored the boycotts, supplied military aid to the Ukraine and did not fall to the temptation of cheap Russian oil.

[Phil1111 910]

8 hours ago, billvon said:

You know, I didn't think the west's resistance would be so successful.  .... did not fall to the temptation of cheap Russian oil.

Thats a good summation of the facts. Russia is currently earning about a billion USD a day in its oil and gas exports. In the short term this is unavoidable and will likely prevent  short term default. Perhaps even prevent default on external debt all together. Russia has internal payments to pensioners, military personnel etc. But those payments are in deflated rubles. Russian companies with external debt in USD may be SOL.

The current brain drain of those who are afraid of Putin's clampdown. Who are now fleeing Russia are other casualties of Putin's actions.

About four years ago in these forums I stated that Nord Stream 2 should be cancelled. Due to the risks to the west arising from that dependence. The risks that a very dangerous Putin could morph into. Now its war but at least the west has responded vigorously.

The turmoil in energy markets has led to a spike in EV sales and demand. It will drive conservation and renewables in the EU. Hopefully aggressive new production elsewhere doesn't shortchange environmental conservation.

[kallend 1,623]

11 hours ago, billvon said:

 

And much of that is due to the cooperation of the west to boycott Russian goods.  Sure. it's making gas prices higher and making life miserable for Americans.  

Nothing like as miserable as having your home bombed and having to sleep in the subway.  People in the USA are fortunate in having no social/institutional memory of these things, unlike in Europe.

[riggerrob 558]

On 3/19/2022 at 11:51 AM, ryoder said:

Is there a bag limit on Russian generals? Asking for a friend.

Ukraine Claims To Have Killed Fifth Russian General Since Start of the War

Please keep is mind that the Russian Army is far more stratified than NATO Armies. Since they lack a cadre of long-service, professional senior non-commissioned officers (sargeants and warrant officers) the Russian Army depends far more on officers to make all the decisions. All front-line decisions are made by junior officers (lieutenants and captains), while senior officers (colonels and generals) need to lead from the front to keep troops moving. Ergo, Russian generals are farther forward than their NATO counter-parts and suffer more casualties.