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brenthutch

EVs vs SUVs

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A reality check from the IEA.
“Global sales of SUVs have proven very resilient throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, growing by over 10% in 2021. We estimate that SUVs accounted for more than 45% of global car sales in 2021, setting a new record in terms of both volume and market share, according to our recent commentary.
 
While there are also more and more electric SUVs on the market, the vast majority of SUVs on the world’s roads today – over 98% – still rely on internal combustion engines. SUVs are heavier and consume around 20% more energy than a medium-sized car. They rank among the top causes of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth over the last decade. In 2021 alone, the global fleet of SUVs increased by over 35 million, driving up annual emissions by 120 million tonnes of CO2.“

BTW in the same report the IEA predicts another record year for coal as renewables fail to keep pace with global demand.  
 

 

 

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Só you’re saying the installed base is changing slowly, and that people tend to prioritize short-term benefit for themselves over long-term benefit for the world. 
Damn that’s surprising. 
Wendy P. 

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28 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Só you’re saying the installed base is changing slowly, and that people tend to prioritize short-term benefit for themselves over long-term benefit for the world. 
Damn that’s surprising. 
Wendy P. 

Why do you feel the need to put words into my mouth?  I didn’t say that the IEA did.  I called it a “reality check”

re·al·i·ty check
 
noun
INFORMAL
 
  1. an occasion on which one is reminded of the state of things in the real world.

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34 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Why do you feel the need to put words into my mouth?  I didn’t say that the IEA did.  I called it a “reality check”

re·al·i·ty check
 
noun
INFORMAL
 
  1. an occasion on which one is reminded of the state of things in the real world.

Oh goodness - now you've put me in my place. 

They might have said that, but you posted it, without commenting on it. Or am I not allowed to disagree with the IEA? 

And maybe, just maybe, if you disagree with the meaningful content of my post (i.e. the part that's not all about you), you could comment on that. 

Wendy P. 

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My comment was that the information I shared from the IAE should serve as a reality check for those who believe that the world will be powered by windmills and solar panels and that EVs will overtake IC powered vehicles in the next few years.  We have a lot of “magical thinking” on SC.  I just thought it would be helpful to inject a dose of reality. 
 

P.S. Please don’t rephrase this post as my “love of coal”

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49 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Oh goodness - now you've put me in my place. 

They might have said that, but you posted it, without commenting on it. Or am I not allowed to disagree with the IEA? 

And maybe, just maybe, if you disagree with the meaningful content of my post (i.e. the part that's not all about you), you could comment on that. 

Wendy P. 

Reality check, I don’t know exactly what he’s on about. I do know that this will not be the post that everyone ignores that I’m hoping for.

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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

Reality check, I don’t know exactly what he’s on about. 

I think often it's a set-up for a slam, but then the other person doesn't respond the way he wants, or he loses his train of thought.

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On 1/12/2022 at 11:36 AM, billvon said:

I think often it's a set-up for a slam, but then the other person doesn't respond the way he wants, or he loses his train of thought.

Any thoughts on using “free” electricity from charging stations to mine cryptocurrency?

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14 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Any thoughts on using “free” electricity from charging stations to mine cryptocurrency?

It must mean that EV cars are doomed and will never succeed and Tesla will go bankrupt. You are so good at predicting and proving your statements!

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On 1/14/2022 at 4:30 PM, SkyDekker said:

It must mean that EV cars are doomed and will never succeed and Tesla will go bankrupt. You are so good at predicting and proving your statements!

I will admit, using an EV to mine cryptocurrency using “free” electricity from public charging stations does change the equation.  I have to say I never saw that coming.

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On 1/14/2022 at 4:15 PM, brenthutch said:

Any thoughts on using “free” electricity from charging stations to mine cryptocurrency?

My opinion is that this person is a crook or at the very least an unethical person. Public charging stations are set up to remove some of the range anxiety that people have when changing to a different transportation model. Making them free was just a benefit to help offset the initial cost for the early adopters. I see this behavior no different than someone setting up a transformer next to power lines to harvest that "free" energy. Maybe a better comparison is someone who goes to the public charger to fill their car up and then goes home and attaches their car to the grid in a vehicle-to-grid fashion to make money. 

Edited by CygnusX-1
Not proof reading my post before hitting submit.

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List of EV/PHEV SUV's:

Hyundai IONIQ 5
Volkswagen ID.4
Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model X
Volvo XC40 Recharge
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Hyundai Kona Electric
Audi E-Tron
Mazda MX-30
Jaguar I-Pace
Kia Niro EV
Toyota RAV4 Prime
Hyundai Tucson Hybrid
Lincoln Aviator Hybrid
Audi Q5 Hybrid
Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid Coupe
Land Rover Range Rover Hybrid
Jeep Wrangler 4xe Hybrid
Bentley Bentayga Hybrid
Land Rover Range Rover Sport Hybrid
Subaru Crosstrek Hybrid
Mercedes-Benz GLC-Class Plug-in Hybrid
Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid
Mini Cooper Countryman Plug-in Hybrid
Volvo XC60 Recharge
Volvo XC90 Recharge
Kia Niro Plug-In Hybrid
Lincoln Corsair Hybrid
Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid

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14 minutes ago, billvon said:

List of EV/PHEV SUV's:

Hyundai IONIQ 5
Volkswagen ID.4
Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model X
Volvo XC40 Recharge
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Hyundai Kona Electric
Audi E-Tron
Mazda MX-30
Jaguar I-Pace
Kia Niro EV
Toyota RAV4 Prime
Hyundai Tucson Hybrid
Lincoln Aviator Hybrid
Audi Q5 Hybrid
Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid Coupe
Land Rover Range Rover Hybrid
Jeep Wrangler 4xe Hybrid
Bentley Bentayga Hybrid
Land Rover Range Rover Sport Hybrid
Subaru Crosstrek Hybrid
Mercedes-Benz GLC-Class Plug-in Hybrid
Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid
Mini Cooper Countryman Plug-in Hybrid
Volvo XC60 Recharge
Volvo XC90 Recharge
Kia Niro Plug-In Hybrid
Lincoln Corsair Hybrid
Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid

And a F150 outsells all of them combined.

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US sales of plug in vehicles in 2021: 4% of total vehicle sales
Growth rate since 2015: 32% a year

That means, if nothing changes:

2022 5%
2023 7%
2024 9%
2025 12%
2026 16%
2027 21%
2028 28%
2029 37%
2030 49%
2031 64%
2032 85%
 

Quote

And a F150 outsells all of them combined.

Yes, the electric F150 will outsell most of the others.

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17 minutes ago, billvon said:

US sales of plug in vehicles in 2021: 4% of total vehicle sales
Growth rate since 2015: 32% a year

That means, if nothing changes:

2022 5%
2023 7%
2024 9%
2025 12%
2026 16%
2027 21%
2028 28%
2029 37%
2030 49%
2031 64%
2032 85%
 

Yes, the electric F150 will outsell most of the others.

There are a lot of inherent advantages to EVs over soon to be obsolete ICE powered cars. And really few disadvantages. The writing on the wall is pretty clear. As evidenced by every major automobile manufacturer's statements. Even without considering greenhouse gases the days of inefficient reciprocating pistons and prone to breakdown driveline components for autos are numbered. Trucks and buses that need to go further are another matter at this point.

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4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I will admit, using an EV to mine cryptocurrency using “free” electricity from public charging stations does change the equation.  I have to say I never saw that coming.

It's quite surprising you would say that as often as you've been run over.

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I'm actually disappointed in Jason, he is usually pretty thorough. Having a truck means you get a double use on it, however it also requires:

1) insurance on the truck $$$  - no additional insurance for a powerwall it is covered by home owners

2) No license/tag needed for powerwall $

3) Yes you can disconnect the truck from your house, but then the power goes out on your house

4) He never mentioned anything about efficiency. The powerwall is relative efficient when transferring energy from grid (or solar) to battery and vise versa. You will need less powerwalls to get the same energy out of them than the battery in the truck.

5) If you have solar, then your truck is useless for use as it has to be connected to your house for charging.

6) Going to any DC fast charger to charge will cost way more than doing it off solar or even your home grid. (I don't believe Ford has a deal for free charging, but I could be wrong.)

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Just now, CygnusX-1 said:

I'm actually disappointed in Jason, he is usually pretty thorough. Having a truck means you get a double use on it, however it also requires (a bunch of stuff)

Agreed with all the above.  

However, consider how many country homes have vehicles up on blocks in the back yard.  A used 20 year old F-150 on blocks in the back yard becomes your storage, and it never moves.  AND it's pretty much free since, heck, they were going to store it there anyway.

Most car companies are estimating that batteries will retain 70% of their storage capacity after 10 years.  Let's say it's down to 40% after 20.  In a Lightning that's 52 kilowatt-hours.  A typical US home uses 24 kilowatt-hours a day - so that's 2 days of storage.

 

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