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gowlerk

Energy shortage and high prices

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Maybe a thread by a non-troll is in order. As we come out of the covid slowdown we are being met by several different energy shortages with multiple causes. The main cause is the collapse in prices at the beginning of the covid recession leading to a shutdown of production. As always the cure for low prices is low prices and the cure for high prices is high prices. But clearly political headwinds blowing against carbon emissions is also a factor. 

My own feeling is that if the consumer is squeezed too hard too quickly there will be a backlash leading to votes going to whatever politician is perceived to be most likely to ease the problem. This is going to be a serious factor and if it is not brought under control quickly will set climate control factors back by a large amount. Increasing renewable energy is an easy sell to the public. Unaffordable gasoline and electricity in either America, Europe, or Canada for that matter is not something that will be tolerated by the population. We all have good reason not to shut down what we depend on before it can be replaced. 

I'm not sure what I am looking for here, but I am getting a very uneasy feeling as I see what may be coming down the road.

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(edited)
3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I don’t recall you predicting a global energy shortage 

Correct, I predicted a recession. You wouldn't acknowledge that prediction because we could not have foreseen COVID. So, since the global energy shortage is largely driven by the collapse in pricing due to the COVID pandemic....

Edited by SkyDekker
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3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If only someone could have predicted this……..¬¬

Your buddy trump is responsible.

Iran determined to increase its oil exports despite U.S. sanctions

"Tehran does not disclose its crude export data, but assessments based on shipping and other sources suggest a fall from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd. One survey put exports at 600,000 bpd in June."

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Your buddy trump is responsible.

Iran determined to increase its oil exports despite U.S. sanctions

"Tehran does not disclose its crude export data, but assessments based on shipping and other sources suggest a fall from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd. One survey put exports at 600,000 bpd in June."

 

Under Trump the US was an EXPORTER of oil and gas, we didn’t need to finance a State sponsor of terrorism to fill our gas tanks.

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51 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Under Trump the US was an EXPORTER of oil and gas, we didn’t need to finance a State sponsor of terrorism to fill our gas tanks.

Like trump, the fracking oil export dream was a scam on the backs of investors.

With U.S. shale peaking & having “never made money,” investors lose billions

"2020 marks the 15-year anniversary of the U.S. shale boom but now the industry is in trouble. The same report from Deloitte adds that the “reality is that the shale boom peaked without making money for the industry in aggregate. In fact, the US shale industry registered net negative free cash flows of $300 billion, impaired more than $450 billion of invested capital, and saw more than 190 bankruptcies since 2010.”

Brent, why is it that everything that trump gets involved with becomes a money losing quagmire ending is bankruptcies all around? Despite billions in federal handouts?

Thankfully he lost in 2020 because he was ready to hand out even more cash had he won! Trump's coronavirus handout to oil industry would be dumb, destructive

We know the better half is in tight with big pharma. Are you in tight with big oil? Because handouts are in the center of your thinking.

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7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Like trump, the fracking oil export dream was a scam on the backs of investors.

With U.S. shale peaking & having “never made money,” investors lose billions

"2020 marks the 15-year anniversary of the U.S. shale boom but now the industry is in trouble. The same report from Deloitte adds that the “reality is that the shale boom peaked without making money for the industry in aggregate. In fact, the US shale industry registered net negative free cash flows of $300 billion, impaired more than $450 billion of invested capital, and saw more than 190 bankruptcies since 2010.”

Brent, why is it that everything that trump gets involved with becomes a money losing quagmire ending is bankruptcies all around? Despite billions in federal handouts?

Thankfully he lost in 2020 because he was ready to hand out even more cash had he won! Trump's coronavirus handout to oil industry would be dumb, destructive

We know the better half is in tight with big pharma. Are you in tight with big oil? Because handouts are in the center of your thinking.

I’m not worried about venture capital not cashing in.  I’m more concerned what the average American pays at the pump.

BTW your article is dated, with $100 a barrel oil at hand the oil patch will do just fine.

Edited by brenthutch

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10 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Are you in tight with big oil? Because handouts are in the center of your thinking.

I used to work for big oil (internship, actually) :rofl:. Still have several friends in the industry. But the troll shills much, much more than a paid PR hack could ever do!

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19 hours ago, gowlerk said:

My own feeling is that if the consumer is squeezed too hard too quickly there will be a backlash leading to votes going to whatever politician is perceived to be most likely to ease the problem.

Yep.  However, as you mentioned, high prices = restart of tight oil production = more supply = lower prices.  Republicans are praying for the current high prices to last, but the natural production cycle is already increasing supply.  The EIA is predicting a total increase of 5 million barrels a day during 2021 and 4 million barrels a day during 2022 driven by this.

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14 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Under Trump the US was an EXPORTER of oil and gas, we didn’t need to finance a State sponsor of terrorism to fill our gas tanks.

We were a net exporter AND we financed a state sponsor of terrorism to fill our gas tanks.  The economy is not as simple as you imagine it to be.

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1 minute ago, billvon said:

However, as you mentioned, high prices = restart of tight oil production = more supply = lower prices.

That may well be a large part of the answer. It's not just oil, the tar sands can provide all we need even with the lack of pipelines. But the fracking production that has slowed so much was also the source of the excess of natural gas that was replacing coal in power generation. Renewables are the future but we need a bridge to get there.

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53 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

That may well be a large part of the answer. It's not just oil, the tar sands can provide all we need even with the lack of pipelines. But the fracking production that has slowed so much was also the source of the excess of natural gas that was replacing coal in power generation. Renewables are the future but we need a bridge to get there.

Yep.  Natural gas power generation will be needed for decades - at first for base load power, then for peaking, then just to supplement battery storage.  But it will always be cheaper to get that last 10% of peaking power from natural gas.  Which, as long as it's just for peaking, isn't much of an issue for CO2 emissions, since the duty cycle will be so low.

(And at that point demand may be low enough that we can use biogas.)

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On 10/26/2021 at 8:59 AM, billvon said:

Yep.  However, as you mentioned, high prices = restart of tight oil production = more supply = lower prices.  Republicans are praying for the current high prices to last, but the natural production cycle is already increasing supply.  The EIA is predicting a total increase of 5 million barrels a day during 2021 and 4 million barrels a day during 2022 driven by this.

Well, that didn't take long.  From oilprice.com:

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Crude oil prices retreated today after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.3 million barrels for the week to October 22. . . .Refinery inputs averaged 15 million bpd last week, the EIA also said, an increase of 58,000 bpd on a week earlier.

==============

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6 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well, that didn't take long.  From oilprice.com:

==============

Crude oil prices retreated today after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.3 million barrels for the week to October 22. . . .Refinery inputs averaged 15 million bpd last week, the EIA also said, an increase of 58,000 bpd on a week earlier.

==============

They have plummeted to about double of what they were last year.

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6 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well, that didn't take long.  From oilprice.com:

==============

Crude oil prices retreated today after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.3 million barrels for the week to October 22. . . .Refinery inputs averaged 15 million bpd last week, the EIA also said, an increase of 58,000 bpd on a week earlier.

==============

Duped again, I'm afraid. The Energy Information Administration is an LLC used by George Soros to funnel donations from the Saudi financed Liberal Beheaders Association into the Pennsylvania United Mother Frackers Society. You need to check your sources.

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3 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Duped again, I'm afraid. The Energy Information Administration is an LLC used by George Soros to funnel donations from the Saudi financed Liberal Beheaders Association into the Pennsylvania United Mother Frackers Society. You need to check your sources.

Isn't Fauci involved somehow?  I'm sure I saw a meme . . .

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