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brenthutch

I was right the smart guys were wrong

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I remember taking a lot of flack when I said we were no longer in a recession last fall.  Well the referees have made the call and….

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/its-official-the-covid-recession-lasted-just-two-months-the-shortest-in-us-history.html

“According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to the following April.”

Ohhhh SNAP!

Thanks to the robust health of the economy, pre-pandemic and the policies of low taxes and low regulation, our economy rebounded with unprecedented speed.

 

 

Edited by brenthutch

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I was wondering why you didn't just respond ot the original post this refers back to, so I thought I would dig it up:

On January 6th, Kallend said:

"That's because under Trump the economy has gone into the worst recession in 90 years."

To which you responded:

"9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, 6.7% unemployment rate (it was 2.2% and 7.7% respectively after Obama’s first term.)  I don’t think you know what a recession is."

You further stated:

"I just pointed out that the US is not in a recession, certainly not the worst in 90 years"

In your article you posted as proof of you supposedly being right it says the US was in a recession that was one of the deepest in US history.

 

Here is the post for you:

image.png.e135dba45596da6091bba65addffce3d.png

 

As usual you posted evidence of you being wrong while claiming to be right. I asked before, do you think you could state your name without fucking it up?

 

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Aspects of the 2020 Recession

The 2020 recession was the worst recession since the Great Depression. In April 2020, it was already worse than the 2008 recession in its initial ferocity. In November 2020, stock markets recovered, and jobs were added back into the economy.

 

Here are the key statistics surrounding economic contraction and growth, unemployment, retail sales, and the stock market, and how they played a role in the 2020 recession.

 

Economic Contraction and Growth

The U.S. economy contracted 5% in the first quarter of 2020, then contracted a record 31.4% in the second quarter.1 That was worse than the drop seen during the Great Depression, when the economy contracted from $1.1 trillion in 1929 to $817 billion in 1933.7

 

The 2020 decline happened in just three months instead of the four years it took during the Depression.

The economy grew 33.4% in the third quarter, but it was not enough to make up for earlier losses. In the fourth quarter, it grew just 4%.1

 

The Federal Reserve predicts that growth will improve to a robust 4.2% in 2021 once a vaccine has been widely distributed.8 On the other hand, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the effects will linger until the fourth quarter of 2021, with slightly lower economic output and higher unemployment.9

 

Unemployment Surge

In April 2020, the U.S. economy lost an astonishing 20.6 million jobs.10 Many states required non-essential businesses to shut down.

 

Bars, restaurants, and hotels suffered the most, as people stopped traveling, and restaurants could only offer take-out and delivery. Hospitals lost jobs as they stopped elective procedures to make way for COVID-19 patients.

 

Retail merchants also suffered as shoppers moved online.

 

Prior to the shutdown, the economy was adding around 200,000 jobs each month. It needs about 150,000 new jobs each month to keep expanding.

Job losses sent the April unemployment rate skyrocketing to 14.8%. It remained in the double digits until August, ending the year at. 6.7%.11

 

The Fed projects that unemployment will fall to a healthy 5.0% in 2021.8

 

Retail Sales Wipeout

U.S. retail sales plummeted 16.4% in April 2020. Clothing stores were hit the hardest, as sales dropped 78.8% month over month.

 

Electronics and appliance store sales were down 60.6%. Furniture store sales were next, falling 58.7%. Sporting goods and hobby store sales fell by 38%.

 

Restaurant and bar sales dropped 29.5% in a month, while department stores were down about 29%.12 Many well-known retailers declared bankruptcy due to their high debt levels as they entered the pandemic.

 

By December, retail sales had improved but were still not back to normal. Sales for the year were just 2.9% higher than the year before.

 

The holiday season was up a pretty healthy 4.0% compared with the year before. The improvement was driven by a 19.2% increase in online sales.13

 

 

Stock Market Fluctuations

Uncertainty over the pandemic’s impact caused the 2020 stock market crash.

 
  • On March 9, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 2,013.76 points. It was the worst one-day point loss up to that date.
  • On March 12, the Dow set another new record, falling 2,352.60 points. It was a 9.99% drop, almost a 10% correction in a single day.
  • On March 16, the Dow set another new record, dropping 2,997.10 points. Its 12.93% drop that day was the third-worst in history.
  • On March 11, the Dow closed at 23,553.22. It was down 20.3% from the record level of 29,551.42 seen on February 12. That decline signaled the start of a bear market. It also ended the 11-year bull market that had begun in March 2009. 

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54 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Interesting choice of verb tense. Or maybe of date. Or maybe both. 
Wendy P. 

Dayum! They are scheduling recessions into the future now??? This is great for my investment planning! ^_^

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(edited)
2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

End result recession officially ended spring of 2022 (Just as I said)

 

No, that is not what you said. I even posted above a screen shot of exactly what you said:

 

Kallend asserted the economy had entered a recession under Trump. You responded that he must not know what a recession was.

Did the US enter into a recession under the Trump presidency? Yes or no?

(if you are not sure of the answer, you can try reading the article you posted)

Edited by SkyDekker

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(edited)
3 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

No, that is not what you said. I even posted above a screen shot of exactly what you said:

 

Kallend asserted the economy had entered a recession under Trump. You responded that he must not know what a recession was.

Did the US enter into a recession under the Trump presidency? Yes or no?

(if you are not sure of the answer, you can try reading the article you posted)

Yes it entered a recession and promptly came out of it (in record time). Kallend was confused and distracted by the stock market and the unemployment rate (as evidenced by his reply) and claimed we were still in a recession.  However, as you can see, the recession was over by the summer of 2020^_^ (I got the date right this time)

His confusion was understandable as the MSM downplayed the recovery and hyped all of the bad in a successful attempt to influence the election.

 

Edited by brenthutch

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On 9/16/2021 at 7:06 PM, SkyDekker said:

I was wondering why you didn't just respond ot the original post this refers back to, so I thought I would dig it up:

On January 6th, Kallend said:

"That's because under Trump the economy has gone into the worst recession in 90 years."

To which you responded:

"9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, 6.7% unemployment rate (it was 2.2% and 7.7% respectively after Obama’s first term.)  I don’t think you know what a recession is."

You further stated:

"I just pointed out that the US is not in a recession, certainly not the worst in 90 years"

In your article you posted as proof of you supposedly being right it says the US was in a recession that was one of the deepest in US history.

 

Here is the post for you:

image.png.e135dba45596da6091bba65addffce3d.png

 

As usual you posted evidence of you being wrong while claiming to be right. I asked before, do you think you could state your name without fucking it up?

 

 Notice the date and notice the tense Kallend used.  Thanks for teeing it up for me.

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On 9/16/2021 at 2:18 PM, brenthutch said:

I remember taking a lot of flack when I said we were no longer in a recession last fall.  Well the referees have made the call and….

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/its-official-the-covid-recession-lasted-just-two-months-the-shortest-in-us-history.html

“According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to the following April.”

Ohhhh SNAP!

Thanks to the robust health of the economy, pre-pandemic and the policies of low taxes and low regulation, our economy rebounded with unprecedented speed.

 

 

We've been feasting on the seed corn for some time now, and the statistics used to define 'recession' and 'recovery' are meaningless in the long term.

I liken it to some of the current crop of Oncology medications, which temporarily give the impression of remission but result in Stage 5 (death).  I had someone raving about her hair coming back, the tumors going away and everything coming up roses.  Two weeks later she was pushing up daisies.

Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against enjoying the hell out of the 'recovery' while it lasts.  Having said that, it's a good idea to prepare for the 'everything bubble' popping in the foreseeable future.

Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

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1 hour ago, winsor said:

We've been feasting on the seed corn for some time now, and the statistics used to define 'recession' and 'recovery' are meaningless in the long term.

I liken it to some of the current crop of Oncology medications, which temporarily give the impression of remission but result in Stage 5 (death).  I had someone raving about her hair coming back, the tumors going away and everything coming up roses.  Two weeks later she was pushing up daisies.

Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against enjoying the hell out of the 'recovery' while it lasts.  Having said that, it's a good idea to prepare for the 'everything bubble' popping in the foreseeable future.

Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

Are you saying that soon we'll see the SHTF?

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4 hours ago, lippy said:

Are you saying that soon we'll see the SHTF?

I hear it's coming Real Soon Now.

These threads are a fascinating study in the dumbing down of America.  We used to heed the words of the wise and the learned; now we make fun of the "smart guys" and instead seek out the advice of Joe the Plumber, the My Pillow Guy and the demon-sperm doctor.  We elect failed reality TV show hosts as president.  We give equal weight to both sides, even if one side believes the Earth is flat and the government is being run by lizard people.  We consume our news in quick sound bites rather than read it - and we get our information from videos and not from reading.  We admire those who rely on "gut feel" rather than those who agonize over decisions, seeking input from all sides.  

The days of Lincoln are long gone.  Lincoln created a cabinet of his fiercest political rivals, and then negotiated his agenda with them.  They fought constantly, but when policy emerged it was supported by most of the factions they represented because they all had a say in it.  That would not happen on either side today.

This quote from Carl Sagan 26 years ago is pretty prescient:

I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.

Those who celebrate that ignorance, and pride themselves on not being one of "the smart guys" would do well to heed the words of Thomas Jefferson:

If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.

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18 minutes ago, billvon said:

I hear it's coming Real Soon Now.

These threads are a fascinating study in the dumbing down of America.  We used to heed the words of the wise and the learned; now we make fun of the "smart guys" and instead seek out the advice of Joe the Plumber, the My Pillow Guy and the demon-sperm doctor.  We elect failed reality TV show hosts as president.  We give equal weight to both sides, even if one side believes the Earth is flat and the government is being run by lizard people.  We consume our news in quick sound bites rather than read it - and we get our information from videos and not from reading.  We admire those who rely on "gut feel" rather than those who agonize over decisions, seeking input from all sides.  

The days of Lincoln are long gone.  Lincoln created a cabinet of his fiercest political rivals, and then negotiated his agenda with them.  They fought constantly, but when policy emerged it was supported by most of the factions they represented because they all had a say in it.  That would not happen on either side today.

This quote from Carl Sagan 26 years ago is pretty prescient:

I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.

Those who celebrate that ignorance, and pride themselves on not being one of "the smart guys" would do well to heed the words of Thomas Jefferson:

If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.

That’s way too many words for me to read Bill, could you just give us a quick summary?

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17 minutes ago, billvon said:

I hear it's coming Real Soon Now.

These threads are a fascinating study in the dumbing down of America.  We used to heed the words of the wise and the learned; now we make fun of the "smart guys" and instead seek out the advice of Joe the Plumber, the My Pillow Guy and the demon-sperm doctor.  We elect failed reality TV show hosts as president.  We give equal weight to both sides, even if one side believes the Earth is flat and the government is being run by lizard people.  We consume our news in quick sound bites rather than read it - and we get our information from videos and not from reading.  We admire those who rely on "gut feel" rather than those who agonize over decisions, seeking input from all sides.  

The days of Lincoln are long gone.  Lincoln created a cabinet of his fiercest political rivals, and then negotiated his agenda with them.  They fought constantly, but when policy emerged it was supported by most of the factions they represented because they all had a say in it.  That would not happen on either side today.

This quote from Carl Sagan 26 years ago is pretty prescient:

I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.

Those who celebrate that ignorance, and pride themselves on not being one of "the smart guys" would do well to heed the words of Thomas Jefferson:

If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.

Such an accurate reflection of where we are now. Which is why, occasionally, I go off the progressive script and state that it's hard to have a positive outlook for the future and also pay a premium for it today. Looking around it is hard to argue that things are on the upswing and it won't be wasted effort and money with the world ending up trashed anyway.

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22 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

 Looking around it is hard to argue that things are on the upswing and it won't be wasted effort and money with the world ending up trashed anyway.

Well, looking far enough into the future, we're all dead anyway.  But while we're here, I figure it's worth it to try to do some good - even if the only people who might get benefit out of it are my grandkids.

 

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11 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well, looking far enough into the future, we're all dead anyway.  But while we're here, I figure it's worth it to try to do some good - even if the only people who might get benefit out of it are my grandkids.

 

Therein lays the essence of our different perspectives. I, on the other hand, would be doing it for Brents grandkids. Seriously, I'm far from throwing in the towel. It's just that when I wake up every day and notice once again that 35% of Americans choose the plague over common sense it's hard to imagine big picture items like global warming, electoral autocracies, skewed world economics and that we truly are all equal right out of the chute coming into focus for a decisive percentage of the world population anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

I hear it's coming Real Soon Now.

These threads are a fascinating study in the dumbing down of America.  We used to heed the words of the wise and the learned; now we make fun of the "smart guys" and instead seek out the advice of Joe the Plumber, the My Pillow Guy and the demon-sperm doctor.  We elect failed reality TV show hosts as president.  We give equal weight to both sides, even if one side believes the Earth is flat and the government is being run by lizard people.  We consume our news in quick sound bites rather than read it - and we get our information from videos and not from reading.  We admire those who rely on "gut feel" rather than those who agonize over decisions, seeking input from all sides.  

The days of Lincoln are long gone.  Lincoln created a cabinet of his fiercest political rivals, and then negotiated his agenda with them.  They fought constantly, but when policy emerged it was supported by most of the factions they represented because they all had a say in it.  That would not happen on either side today.

This quote from Carl Sagan 26 years ago is pretty prescient:

I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.

Those who celebrate that ignorance, and pride themselves on not being one of "the smart guys" would do well to heed the words of Thomas Jefferson:

If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.

OK, but other than that, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

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22 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

 Looking around it is hard to argue that things are on the upswing and it won't be wasted effort and money with the world ending up trashed anyway.

Well, looking far enough into the future, we're all dead anyway.  But while we're here, I figure it's worth it to try to do some good - even if the only people who might get benefit out of it are my grandkids.

 

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