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Phil1111

What is next for Afghanistan?

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22 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

What about the army generals and the intelligence services using different play books?

Today Southern Pakistan "A suicide attack killed at least four people and injured 20 others in Pakistan's southwestern province of Baluchistan early Sunday, officials in the country said...."Our fidaee [suicide bomber] had planted explosives on the motorbike and rammed into the military convoy in Quetta," TTP spokesman Mohammad Khurasani said from an undisclosed location Sunday. "The security forces were about to leave for patrolling when they were attacked."

Baluchistan overlaps the southern provinces of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Their loyalty is to other Baluchis first. I doubt if the average Baluchi has ever visited Kabul, mush less consider himself am Afghan citizen. Afghanistan is doomed to fragment into a series of semi-autonimous tribal homelands, with even the Taliban fearing to enter some of those tribal homelands ... much the same as Alexander the Great invaded a few thousand years ago. It is difficult to unite a country with mountains that steep, passes snowed-in for months every year and far too little water for serious agriculture. Note the most of Afghanistan's "green zones" follow irrigation systems gifted by Russia or the USA.

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On 9/5/2021 at 11:26 PM, yoink said:

We’ll you’ve already got Lindsay Graham saying we’re going back into Afghanistan in the foreseeable future - within a couple of years as I’m interpreting it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58456953

Of course you will. Only way to keep all the money flowing.

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On 9/7/2021 at 12:02 PM, SkyDekker said:

Of course you will. Only way to keep all the money flowing.

NYT today:
 

Who won the war on terror? American defense contractors, many of which were politically connected companies that had donated to George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, according to the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit that has been tracking spending in a series of reports called the Windfalls of War. One firm hired to help advise Iraqi ministries had a single employee — the husband of a deputy assistant secretary of defense.

The war proved enormously lucrative for many Americans and Europeans, too. One 2008 study estimated that some 40 percent of the money allocated to Afghanistan actually went back to donor countries in corporate profits and consultant salaries. Only about 12 percent of U.S. reconstruction assistance given to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2021 actually went to the Afghan government. Much of the rest went to companies like the Louis Berger Group, a New Jersey-based construction firm that got a $1.4 billion contract to build schools, clinics and roads. Even after it got caught bribing officials and systematically overbilling taxpayers, the contracts kept coming.

“It’s a bugbear of mine that Afghan corruption is so frequently cited as an explanation (as well as an excuse) for Western failure in Afghanistan,” Jonathan Goodhand, a professor in Conflict and Development Studies at SOAS University of London, wrote me in an email. Americans “point the finger at Afghans, whilst ignoring their role in both fueling and benefiting from the patronage pump.”

 

etc.

 

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39 minutes ago, kallend said:

NYT today:
 

Who won the war on terror? American defense contractors, ...

 

Two trillion would be $52,000 for every man woman and child in Afghanistan. So probably $350k per family. "On Jan. 17, 1961, President Dwight Eisenhower gave the nation a dire warning about what he described as a threat to democratic government. He called it the military-industrial complex, a formidable union of defense contractors and the armed forces."

Whats even worse is the idea that this complex of the self serving throws the lives of young men and women. Into a meat grinder that suggests their lives are worth supporting this industry.

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On 9/13/2021 at 9:45 AM, brenthutch said:

US family =<4

Brent,

That difference explains the population gap between first-world and third-world birth rates.

Since first-world nations have good health care and public sanitation, infant mortality rates are low and most families are confident that both their children will grow to adulthood. Since 2 children is less than the replacement rate (2.2 children per woman) populations are declining in first-world nations. This also means fewer working-age people to support ever-larger numbers of retirees.

Meanwhile, many third-world nations have poor public sanitation, few medical clinics and high infant mortality rates. Hence most families have 6 or more children in hopes that a couple will survive long enough to support their parents when the parents are too old to work full-time. Most of these countries are also too poor to educate even half their children through elementary school, hence the Taliban bans girls studying in public schools.

With better health care, more children survive in third-world nations, but they have difficulty finding work in stagnant economies. Hence they try to emmigrate to second or first-world countries where they can find work. These immigrants take menial labor jobs that native-born first-worlders are too arrogant to do. Immigration is the only way that first-world nations can keep up the numbers in their labor force.

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1 hour ago, kallend said:

At least he didn't claim it is to improve morale:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/24/afghanistan-taliban-amputations-executions-return/

A Taliban founder says cutting off hands as punishment will be ‘necessary for security’

I worked summers at a Naval Weapons Station near my home while in college.

Bounced around to different departments in maintenance division as help was needed. The small vehicle maintenance department had a older mechanic who lost his hand. 20 years later I forget exactly how but I unreliably recall it being from a farming equipment accident. 

He may not have been happy overall about the loss of his hands, but he took much joy in thumping you in the chest with his stump. He also was amazing proficient at changing tires and doing all types of mechanic work with only one hand.

We are talking about the new and improved Taliban, they may have morale in mind.

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15 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Ken,

As much as I abhor what happened, as you note above, the primary difference is that the US ( we, me, etc ) did not intend for that to happen.

Jerry Baumchen

Of course not, they apologized. After journalists exposed the lies they had been telling about it. The only reason that happened is that it was actually in Kabul. Most of the "terrorist killing" drone strikes happen in remote places where no one can check. They are done by trigger happy men reporting to a trigger happy command sitting in an office on the other side of the world. Mistakes are sad, but what the hell, you have to break eggs to make an omelet right? No wonder the Afghan tribal people have no respect for cowards who fight with technology instead of on the field. Who are the terrorists now? Who is engaging in asymmetrical warfare now? I wonder if that officer had hot coffee at hand while he was deciding if he had enough information to make the decision to kill?

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8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Why not? The US military finds killing families with drone strikes "necessary for security".

Pull your horns in, Ken, and try to remember the security benefit Canada gains at no cost owing to our face forward international policies. Yes, we fucked up. That said every nation who gains benefit from the US military should join us in apology.

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8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Of course not, they apologized. After journalists exposed the lies they had been telling about it. The only reason that happened is that it was actually in Kabul. Most of the "terrorist killing" drone strikes happen in remote places where no one can check. They are done by trigger happy men reporting to a trigger happy command sitting in an office on the other side of the world. Mistakes are sad, but what the hell, you have to break eggs to make an omelet right? No wonder the Afghan tribal people have no respect for cowards who fight with technology instead of on the field. Who are the terrorists now? Who is engaging in asymmetrical warfare now? I wonder if that officer had hot coffee at hand while he was deciding if he had enough information to make the decision to kill?

Just to put in a context that we can all understand, back in the day we used to spot the aircraft. Not like now when modern GPS makes the green/red light system reliable and we just get out. In the old day's you could spot a hundred loads in a row perfectly but just f-up one and Oh, buddy, on come the opinions. Perspective is what I'm talking about.

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1 minute ago, JoeWeber said:

Pull your horns in, Ken, and try to remember the security benefit Canada gains at no cost owing to our face forward international policies. Yes, we fucked up. That said every nation who gains benefit from the US military should join us in apology.

Just pointing out the the Taliban have no ownership of murderous behavior. America along with China and now Afghanistan are among the few death penalty nations. Your weapons are awesome. Thanks a million for maintaining the only real existential threat that civilization faces. 

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Just now, gowlerk said:

Just pointing out the the Taliban have no ownership of murderous behavior. America along with China and now Afghanistan are among the few death penalty nations. Your weapons are awesome. Thanks a million for maintaining the only real existential threat that civilization faces. 

Bullshit. You're just being defensive.

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Just now, gowlerk said:

As opposed to offensive?

Now you're being elliptical. What do you propose? Shall we Americans lay down our knives and forks and pick up chop sticks in the name of world peace? What do you see happening across the geopolitical landscape if the US backs it's defense spending down to Canada's level? Happiness everywhere, I suppose.

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10 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Now you're being elliptical. What do you propose? Shall we Americans lay down our knives and forks and pick up chop sticks in the name of world peace? What do you see happening across the geopolitical landscape if the US backs it's defense spending down to Canada's level? Happiness everywhere, I suppose.

I propose tighter controls on the use of remote killing machines. The use of them should require more than a strong hunch unless it is in a war. America is not at war with Afghan aid workers as far as I know. It is hard to believe this is a one off event considering the lies and cover up attempted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/21/podcasts/the-daily/drone-strike-afghanistan-zemari-ahmadi.html

It is a 30 minute podcast, I don't blame you if you don't listen to it. I rarely spend time like that except when driving.

Edited by gowlerk

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14 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Now you're being elliptical. What do you propose? Shall we Americans lay down our knives and forks and pick up chop sticks in the name of world peace? What do you see happening across the geopolitical landscape if the US backs it's defense spending down to Canada's level? Happiness everywhere, I suppose.

Here is my suggestion. Two rules that must be followed in all drone strikes:

1. No strikes in any country, unless Congress has declared war there; You know, like it says in the Constitution.

2. No killing unless the target has been positively identified. No more of this bullshit of targeting people just based on their behaviour as seen from the drone cameras.

The US has enough enemies. We don't need to run around the planet killing random people, and making enemies of all the friends/relatives/survivors.

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46 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I propose tighter controls on the use of remote killing machines. The use of them should require more than a strong hunch unless it is in a war. America is not at war with Afghan aid workers as far as I know. It is hard to believe this is a one off event considering the lies and cover up attempted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/21/podcasts/the-daily/drone-strike-afghanistan-zemari-ahmadi.html

Come on, man, with the killing machine trope. By your expansive use your truck is a killing machine. We fucked up.13 US soldiers and oner 100 afghanis were killed at a checkpoint by homicide bombers. The situation was anything but controlled and the clock was ticking. Now, it's over and you are still home safe and sound and able to bark about how the US is____________________, fill in the blank. We aren't ogres and we do try to do our best. Really.

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8 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Come on, man, with the killing machine trope.

We are talking about something called a “Hellfire Missile”. Which has a primary function as a machine designed to kill people. As opposed to a class 8 Freightliner truck, which is not primarily designed to kill and in fact has several features incorporated to help lessen its chance of killing. Why do you suppose the called it Hellfire? Probably not the best name for a kitten.

 

I still love America despite the aggression.

Edited by gowlerk

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