What is next for Afghanistan?

[Phil1111 908]

So Afghanistan has a new Taliban government. Its facing two enemies right now in country. The Islamic State and Ahmad Massoud and his other anti-Taliban rebels.

Will they allow the country to become a breeding ground for anti-west international terrorists?

Or “Pakistan sees the return of the Taliban as the success of a longstanding policy designed to ensure a friendly government in Afghanistan.”

Since" “There’s no doubt among scholars, officials and people on the ground in Afghanistan that Pakistani intelligence agencies strongly supported the Taliban right from its inception in the 1990s, that this support continued beyond 2001, that the group’s leadership was based on Pakistani soil – and that this is an important reason why the Taliban was able to sustain itself for so many years,” Shashank Joshi, defence editor of The Economist, told FRANCE 24."

Pakistan may pay a heavy price for its clandestine support of radical Islamist's.

Or will they expand to the south and help terrorist groups in Pakistan. Attacks "claimed by the Islamic State have raised concerns over its growing presence and influence in Pakistan. Many of the militants fighting under the Islamic State’s banner in Afghanistan are believed to be former TTP militants who fled across the border, a phenomenon that has raised fears of an Islamic State-inspired campaign of violence inside Pakistan... While  "The military, which has historically been dominant over civilian governments, is believed to still be providing support to the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and other militant proxy groups that often collaborate with the TTP."

Yesterday as the last of US personnel left Afghanistan The TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) the Pakistani Taliban. Launched an attack from Afghanistan into Pakistan that killed two Pakistani soldiers. The TTP claimed credit.

 

Edited August 30, 2021 by Phil1111

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

You have to remember some of the history of Afghanistan.

One of the most important points is that the reason they have been so successful in fighting off invaders is because when they don't have an invader to resist, they spend a lot of their time fighting each other (that's also true when there is an invader to fight off). 

Once the Soviets left, the various factions that beat them off started turning on each other. 
They tried to form a central government, with some power sharing agreements among the different groups.
Often, the disputes would boil over into actual fighting inside of Kabul.

Imagine Mitch McConnell using the Kentucky National Guard to attack Chuck Schumer in New York. 

The fighting became so bad that a LOT of people decided to leave, rather than get killed (a reasonable choice). The 'least bad' option was Pakistan. Iran, China & what used to be the Soviet Union were worse, but each got some refugees. Pakistan had the most, many of whom were leftovers from the Soviet occupation era (there were a lot of those). 

There's some pretty convincing evidence that the Pakistanis more or less created the modern Taliban, primarily to stabilize the border region, slowing or stopping the flow or refugees.
The Taliban, with support, did a good job of destroying the opposition. By 2001, the last of the holdouts were on their last legs. Don't forget that Al Queda assassins murdered Ahmed Shah Massoud (the new guy's dad) on Sept 9th, 2001. 

If Al Queda hadn't attacked the US, prompting the invasion, the Taliban would have had a solid hold on Afghanistan by the end of 01. 

And now they're back.

There are reports that they've learned their lesson.
That they aren't going to allow terrorists to hide out there. 
That they might actually try to be 'global citizens'.
They've done a pretty good job forming a 'shadow government' the last few years. Taxation, infrastructure, the whole thing.
They're finding out now that the Afghan economy was largely based on humanitarian aid from the West. If they want to keep the country viable, they'll have to find replacement funding for that. Or behave well enough that the aid isn't totally stopped.

We shall see what happens.

I don't think they will make the same mistakes.

But there's lots and lots of different ones available for them to make.

[ryoder 1,380]

Something that really has me curious:

What the Taliban officials have been saying publicly, doesn't correlate with reports of what the Taliban grunts have been doing. I'm wondering if it is not that the officials are speaking bullshit, but that the upper ranks of the Taliban doesn't really have tight control of the lower ranks.

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

You have to remember some of the history of Afghanistan....
I don't think they will make the same mistakes.

But there's lots and lots of different ones available for them to make.

At least they are all well armed now. No old Lee–Enfields for this crop of jihadists.

52 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Something that really has me curious:

What the Taliban officials have been saying publicly, doesn't correlate with reports of what the Taliban grunts have been doing. I'm wondering if it is not that the officials are speaking bullshit, but that the upper ranks of the Taliban doesn't really have tight control of the lower ranks.

The Taliban grunts have tribes, Mullahs and mixed loyalties to everyone else.

Oh and lots of weapons.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

55 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

At least they are all well armed now. No old Lee–Enfields for this crop of jihadists.

When you're wounded

and left on Afghanistans plains 

and the women come out

to cut up what remains

hand over your 

American made Squad Automatic Weapon

and join the Talib

and go to your Gawd

sometime later

 

 

[Phil1111 908]

2 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

When you're wounded

and left on Afghanistans plains 

and the women come out

to cut up what remains

hand over your 

American made Squad Automatic Weapon

and join the Talib

and go to your Gawd

sometime later

 

 

Snif...sniff..thats beautiful. Like the smell of gunpowder in the morning.

[kallend 1,620]

History suggests that outsiders should leave Afghanistan alone.

[jakee 1,254]

5 hours ago, kallend said:

History suggests that outsiders should leave Afghanistan alone.

Current experience says that too. In 2001 the Northern Alliance of disparate tribal leaders controlled around 30% of Afghanistan. 20 years of trying to institute a western central government, and a few weeks after we started leaving the Taliban control absolutely everything except the Panjshir valley, and they’re probably in a position to blockade that into submission for the first time ever if they can be bothered.

[SkyDekker 1,120]

14 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

At least they are all well armed now. No old Lee–Enfields for this crop of jihadists.

The Taliban grunts have tribes, Mullahs and mixed loyalties to everyone else.

Oh and lots of weapons.

[ryoder 1,380]

17 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Hey! they have enough C-208's to start a few dropzones

[JoeWeber 2,294]

3 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Hey! they have enough C-208's to start a few dropzones

And if you choose the AC-208 Strike aircraft you can take out the pesky competition on decent.

[Phil1111 908]

2 hours ago, ryoder said:

Hey! they have enough C-208's to start a few dropzones

Hey with a wrench or two. Swap an engine from that C-130 over there. Wimpy, weak Blackhawk conversions pffft!

Edited August 31, 2021 by Phil1111

[ryoder 1,380]

5 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Hey with a wrench or two.

Hey, I think I jumped that plane at a boogie once!

[RonD1120 58]

Deleted

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by RonD1120

[DougH 270]

On 8/31/2021 at 1:11 PM, ryoder said:

Hey! they have enough C-208's to start a few dropzones

If the jump tickets were cheap enough they would get plenty of jumpers. Wouldn't be the first time skydivers cozied up with terrible oppressive regimes. You know, because "fuck you, I am going to get mine".

Probably way less beer at the bonfire, but way more child brides. 

[Phil1111 908]

"the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, a grouping of rebels, said ...

NRFA forces had also killed large numbers of Taliban fighters on two fronts since clashes first broke out earlier in the week.

“It has been proven to the other side that they cannot resolve this issue through war,” the spokesman said in reference to the Taliban's losses."

Perhaps if the US had hired these guys instead of supporting Hamid Karzai and his other gang of kleptocrats. The US would have saved a couple billion and kept the Taliban out.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

On 8/31/2021 at 12:21 PM, ryoder said:

Hey, I think I jumped that plane at a boogie once!

No shit? These are the guys who beat us?

[Westerly 61]

.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Westerly

[RonD1120 58]

 

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Edited September 3, 2021 by RonD1120

[riggerrob 558]

On 8/30/2021 at 7:13 PM, Phil1111 said:

At least they are all well armed now. No old Lee–Enfields for this crop of jihadists.

The Taliban grunts have tribes, Mullahs and mixed loyalties to everyone else.

Oh and lots of weapons.

When was the last time that any army's generals did not have a clue about what their private soldiers were doing "in the trenches?"

[Phil1111 908]

17 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

When was the last time that any army's generals did not have a clue about what their private soldiers were doing "in the trenches?"

What about the army generals and the intelligence services using different play books?

Today Southern Pakistan "A suicide attack killed at least four people and injured 20 others in Pakistan's southwestern province of Baluchistan early Sunday, officials in the country said...."Our fidaee [suicide bomber] had planted explosives on the motorbike and rammed into the military convoy in Quetta," TTP spokesman Mohammad Khurasani said from an undisclosed location Sunday. "The security forces were about to leave for patrolling when they were attacked."

[yoink 321]

We’ll you’ve already got Lindsay Graham saying we’re going back into Afghanistan in the foreseeable future - within a couple of years as I’m interpreting it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58456953

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

10 hours ago, yoink said:

We’ll you’ve already got Lindsay Graham saying we’re going back into Afghanistan in the foreseeable future - within a couple of years as I’m interpreting it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58456953

Hi Will,

It is the Rudy Giuliani-Lindsay Graham School of Intelligence.

Jerry Baumchen

[Phil1111 908]

12 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Will,

It is the Rudy Giuliani-Lindsay Graham School of Intelligence.

Jerry Baumchen

Graham used to have a flicker of intelligence. Then his brain died, i.e. John McCain and it was all over. Turns out that his parroting of Senator McCain was all he had.

[ryoder 1,380]

10 hours ago, yoink said:

We’ll you’ve already got Lindsay Graham saying we’re going back into Afghanistan in the foreseeable future - within a couple of years as I’m interpreting it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58456953

If Lindsay Graham wants to go to Afghanistan, then I'm all for it; And hopefully he stays there.