Importance of vaccination and masking

[gowlerk 1,903]

1 minute ago, base698 said:

Yeah I'm sure you will. Whatever authoritarian measures give greater profits to Pfizer and big sugar and make you feel safer.  

 

CS Lewis? How cute.

[billvon 2,380]

31 minutes ago, base698 said:

Every data source I've seen that says this is including January to present.  The vaccine wasn't widely available until April and cases were already falling in February. 

Right.  And the Delta variant wasn't a big factor in the US until June.  So the exact same vaccine, given the exact same time before infection, will show lower effectiveness today than it did in March.  Not because it "faded" but because the Delta variant is more infectious.

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Vitamin D :)  Seriously though I never mentioned either.  You're better off being in shape, n95, not going to bars and high traffic indoor events than taking the vaccine. 

I didn't mean to suggest you did.  I was referring to the recent anti-vaxxer who was a mountain climber, super healthy, great diet, 30 years old who just died.  Also another anti-vaxxer who promoted vitamins and Ivermectin.  They just took him off life support.

It's great to be healthy.  Vaccinations are still the best way to fight COVID.

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This is actually more true in non-sterilizing vaccines. 

There is no such thing as a sterilizing vaccine.  Did you mean sterilizing immunity?

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Organisms (if you count virus as such) respond to selection pressure.  Vaccines that don't kill it mean more mutations. 

Absolutely.  And the same is true of antibiotics, antivirals, convalescent plasma, monoclonal antibodies - even just being healthy means more mutations.  If your immune system does manage to put up a good fight, it is far more likely to mutate than if the virus kills you.  (That's why we always see mutations even without vaccinations.)

Again, the best way to fight this is to get EVERYONE vaccinated so Re falls below 1.  Then there is far less virus to mutate.

[olofscience 420]

2 minutes ago, base698 said:

Sterilizing immunity is a pretty common term.  I've seen sterilizing vaccine used to imply that.  It was pretty clear from the link what was meant.

Thanks, at least I learned a new term! But no vaccine is 100% effective, and your post implied that the vaccine's mechanism of action was by directly killing or disabling the virus.

So because it's not 100% effective at preventing death, you'll jump without a reserve because it increases the risk of main-reserve entanglement. Much better to just pack your main well. Did I get your logic right?

[headoverheels 291]

Data from Israel shows good protection from the 3rd dose.  Data is from 1M people, about 55/45 split between those that had the 3rd dose and those that only had the 2 doses.  Greater than 10x improved protection.

 

[gowlerk 1,903]

Covid is morphing into a longer term multi-year battle. It is going to be an even larger event than we first realized. Vaccines and boosters are going to be needed and strong public health policies are going to be coming. Even to red states. This is just the beginning.

[olofscience 420]

5 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Covid is morphing into a longer term multi-year battle. It is going to be an even larger event than we first realized. Vaccines and boosters are going to be needed and strong public health policies are going to be coming. Even to red states. This is just the beginning.

While @base698 is concerned about vaccines putting viruses under selection pressure, the virus is putting selection pressure on humans. And the numbers don't look very good on his side.

[headoverheels 291]

17 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

This is just the beginning.

Pan-corona vaccine looks like a possibility.

[ryoder 1,381]

30 minutes ago, headoverheels said:

Pan-corona vaccine looks like a possibility.

But they will need to market it as a horse tranquilizer to overcome vaccine hesitancy. (I stole the idea from Borowitz).

[olofscience 420]

14 minutes ago, ryoder said:

But they will need to market it as a horse tranquilizer to overcome vaccine hesitancy. (I stole the idea from Borowitz).

And as from the other video you posted - it needs to be horse rules all the way.

No using up any ICU beds or putting medical staff at risk - they get a shed with some hay and a blanket, and if they can't get up and run after a few days someone goes to them with a tear in their eye and shoots them in the head.

[kallend 1,621]

3 hours ago, base698 said:

The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month (Israel studies) [1]. 

Sorry, but that figure is nonsense.

A loss of 40% per month over 6 months would mean a total loss of over 95%.

The experience of millions of people in the USA and Europe shows that this is just not so.

 

[base698 1]

2 hours ago, kallend said:

Sorry, but that figure is nonsense.

A loss of 40% per month over 6 months would mean a total loss of over 95%.

The experience of millions of people in the USA and Europe shows that this is just not so.

 

Can't find the paper, but this shows 16% effective if vaccinated in Jan.  The Biden recommendation of booster at 5 months is on account of the reduction of effectiveness.  

Preliminary data published by the Israeli government in July showed the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 16% effective against symptomatic infection for people who had received two doses in January. For people who had been fully vaccinated by April, the vaccine was 79% effective against symptomatic infection, suggesting that immunity gained through immunization depletes over time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/israel-doubles-down-on-covid-booster-shots-as-breakthrough-cases-rise.html

[headoverheels 291]

16 minutes ago, base698 said:

Can't find the paper, but this shows 16% effective if vaccinated in Jan.  The Biden recommendation of booster at 5 months is on account of the reduction of effectiveness.  

Not sure how this Israeli infection rate data numerical transforms to protection rate, but you can see the trend.

Edited August 31, 2021 by headoverheels

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

Hi folks,

The City of Portland takes a very hard line:  Portland to city employees: Get COVID-19 vaccine or lose your job - oregonlive.com

Jerry Baumchen

[Phil1111 908]

3 hours ago, kallend said:

Sorry, but that figure is nonsense.

A loss of 40% per month over 6 months would mean a total loss of over 95%.

The experience of millions of people in the USA and Europe shows that this is just not so.

 

Professor! I take it you have been doing some light, late night reading of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (18 August ) issue.

Which " found that vaccine efficacy against all SARS-CoV-2 infections dropped from 91.7% to 79.8% between May and July, as Delta took over in the region. But protection against hospitalization for COVID-19 stayed close to 95%. Data from the Israeli Ministry of Health suggests protection against severe disease is still nearly 92% for people 50 and younger and 85% for those older than 50."

[gowlerk 1,903]

This is only speculation on my part. Nearly all two dose vaccines are given months apart. Because of the need for rapid testing these ones were given much closer together. It is entirely possible that better protection would come with a longer period of spacing. 

[JoeWeber 2,294]

6 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

This is only speculation on my part. Nearly all two dose vaccines are given months apart. Because of the need for rapid testing these ones were given much closer together. It is entirely possible that better protection would come with a longer period of spacing. 

The Moderna jab is 4 weeks and Pfizer is 3 weeks. Data from places that spaced them longer, owing to supply issues, suggests strongly that a longer period until the second dose might be better. 

[billvon 2,380]

59 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

This is only speculation on my part. Nearly all two dose vaccines are given months apart. Because of the need for rapid testing these ones were given much closer together. It is entirely possible that better protection would come with a longer period of spacing. 

There is some evidence that that is true - and that heterologous vaccinations (i.e. first one J+J, second one Pfizer) confer greater immunity.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

23 minutes ago, billvon said:

There is some evidence that that is true - and that heterologous vaccinations (i.e. first one J+J, second one Pfizer) confer greater immunity.

Very good evidence from what I've read. Worth following, I think.

[kallend 1,621]

4 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Professor! I take it you have been doing some light, late night reading of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (18 August ) issue.

Which " found that vaccine efficacy against all SARS-CoV-2 infections dropped from 91.7% to 79.8% between May and July, as Delta took over in the region. But protection against hospitalization for COVID-19 stayed close to 95%. Data from the Israeli Ministry of Health suggests protection against severe disease is still nearly 92% for people 50 and younger and 85% for those older than 50."

Which confirms that a LOSS of 40% per month is nonsense.  That means a total loss of over 95% in 6 months, or an efficacy of under 5%.

[olofscience 420]

2 hours ago, kallend said:

Which confirms that a LOSS of 40% per month is nonsense.  That means a total loss of over 95% in 6 months, or an efficacy of under 5%.

They also intentionally mix up:

• effectiveness against symptomatic infection
• effectiveness against hospitalization
• effectiveness against death

Just for propaganda effect (or inability to hold more than 1 number in their head)

[base698 1]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

They also intentionally mix up:

• effectiveness against symptomatic infection
• effectiveness against hospitalization
• effectiveness against death

Just for propaganda effect (or inability to hold more than 1 number in their head)

We started at herd immunity then shifted to the idea it's somehow just about hospitalization and death.  I remain skeptical.  

The cheerleading and trust for an industry that killed 500,000 people of all ages with safe and non-addictive Oxy and routinely hides and misleads with results to make a little more profit as people die is interesting. 

[base698 1]

On 8/28/2021 at 4:40 PM, gowlerk said:

We are going to make it more and more difficult for you to function as a full member of society until you take on the responsibility of a full member of society.

Already seeing a huge reduction in reservations at restaurants that were already hurting.  Someone in your party that forgot their card?  Guess we can't eat here.  Gyms and restaurants just had the worst year ever.

Any friction with customers causes a drop off.  My prediction would be their is some pushback from the already hurting businesses that are going to lose 50% of their customer base. 

[Phil1111 908]

9 minutes ago, base698 said:

We started at herd immunity then shifted to the idea it's somehow just about hospitalization and death.  I remain skeptical.  

The cheerleading and trust for an industry that killed 500,000 people of all ages with safe and non-addictive Oxy and routinely hides and misleads with results to make a little more profit as people die is interesting. 

Is the world just one big conspiracy to you? Or just science?

Edited August 31, 2021 by Phil1111

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

17 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Is the world just one big conspiracy to you? Or just science.

Well, as understanding of the situation changes, or the situation itself changes, then the response and necessary actions change.

That's how science works.

The sheer number of people that cannot grasp that concept stuns me.

Edit to add:

WI State Senator Andre Jacque has been in the ICU on a ventilator for a week or so.

His wife released a statement urging people to get vaccinated.

 

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Speaking on my family’s experience, 5 of our 8 family members tested positive for COVID-19. Of the 3 fully vaccinated people in our family, there was one breakthrough case of COVID-19 with mild symptoms.

So only three of the 8 were vaccinated.

Awesome.

Full story:https://www.wbay.com/2021/08/30/wife-sen-jacque-consider-placing-trust-medical-professionals-who-recommend-covid-19-vaccine/

Edited August 31, 2021 by wolfriverjoe

[olofscience 420]

32 minutes ago, base698 said:

We started at herd immunity then shifted to the idea it's somehow just about hospitalization and death.  I remain skeptical.  

The cheerleading and trust for an industry that killed 500,000 people of all ages with safe and non-addictive Oxy and routinely hides and misleads with results to make a little more profit as people die is interesting. 

Given that you don't seem to have any idea how the vaccine works, the lack of trust is understandable. It's hard to trust something you don't understand.

I feel sorry that it seems to be beyond your ability to understand it, and that you lack more intelligent friends or family who do. Must be scary, no wonder you're angry.