Importance of vaccination and masking

[billvon 2,396]

From the CDC's MMWR comes a story out of Marin, CA.

In one school district in Marin, all teachers were vaccinated except for two.  One of them caught COVID.  The school's policy was for teachers to wear masks at all times, but this teacher took it off occasionally to read to the class.

Of the 24 students in his classroom, 12 of them ended up infected - most of them the closest students to him while he was reading.

In other classrooms, several infections were seen.  They were tested, and the samples sequenced to ensure that they were all the same strain (they were) thus suggesting that they all came from the same index patient (the unvaccinated teacher.)  A total of 27 people were infected.  All the children were unvaccinated because they were too young to be vaccinated.  Of the adults who became infected, three were vaccinated.

This tells us a few things:

1) The Delta variant is extremely infectious.  In a school setting with sloppy (but implemented) COVID protocols, one infection led to 26 other infections.

2) Vaccination is effective but does not work 100%.  Most of the staff (and parents) avoided infection, and almost all of them were vaccinated.  But three staff members/parents who were vaccinated contracted the infection.

3) NPI's are critical, and it's not OK to be sloppy or causal about them.  Masking prevents infected people (whether they know they are infected or not) from spreading the disease.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm?s_cid=mm7035e2_w

[Phil1111 910]

44 minutes ago, billvon said:

From the CDC's MMWR comes a story out of Marin, CA.

In one school district in Marin, all teachers were vaccinated except for two.  One of them caught COVID.  The school's policy was for teachers to wear masks at all times, but this teacher took it off occasionally to read to the class.

Of the 24 students in his classroom, 12 of them ended up infected - most of them the closest students to him while he was reading.

In other classrooms, several infections were seen.  They were tested, and the samples sequenced to ensure that they were all the same strain (they were) thus suggesting that they all came from the same index patient (the unvaccinated teacher.)  A total of 27 people were infected.  All the children were unvaccinated because they were too young to be vaccinated.  Of the adults who became infected, three were vaccinated.

This tells us a few things:

1) The Delta variant is extremely infectious.  In a school setting with sloppy (but implemented) COVID protocols, one infection led to 26 other infections.

2) Vaccination is effective but does not work 100%.  Most of the staff (and parents) avoided infection, and almost all of them were vaccinated.  But three staff members/parents who were vaccinated contracted the infection.

3) NPI's are critical, and it's not OK to be sloppy or causal about them.  Masking prevents infected people (whether they know they are infected or not) from spreading the disease.

4) Unvaccinated teachers, doctors, nurses, etc. Should be suspended w/o pay until they are fully vaccinated.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm?s_cid=mm7035e2_w

FIFY If someone puts inflated values on their personal freedoms over the rights and safety of others. There are always other jobs where they don't have to interact with anyone else.

[base698 1]

If being vaccinated does nothing to stop the spread.  How do you jump to, "must be vaccinated to have a job?"

Now that the goal posts have moved from: everyone vaccinated so we can get herd immunity to get vaccinated so you don't go to the ICU.  I don't follow to logic that vaccinated is somehow safer for others.  N95 sure.

Want to stay out of the ICU?  Lower your BMI.  That not just makes covid a lightning strike rarity for complications but a host of other factors.

[billvon 2,396]

3 hours ago, base698 said:

If being vaccinated does nothing to stop the spread.  How do you jump to, "must be vaccinated to have a job?"

Because it's a way to reduce spread of the virus.  This story is an example of a 1) unvaccinated and 2) unmasked teacher who infected 26 other people.  Had he been vaccinated OR worn a mask this likely would have been averted.

Masks do not stop pathogens 100%.  But surgeons have to wear them, because they help.  How would you feel if your surgeon said "well, masks don't work 100% - some people still get noscomial infections in the hospital even when people wear masks.  So for your surgery I'm not going to wear a mask.  Or wash my hands.  Because, you know, it's not 100%."

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Now that the goal posts have moved from: everyone vaccinated so we can get herd immunity to get vaccinated so you don't go to the ICU. 

Yep.  And here's a news flash - if a new variant comes along, they are going to move again.  Because you are suddenly playing a different game.

Take a look at the goals in soccer, football and hockey.  All different goalposts.  Because they are all different games.  What works to get a field goal doesn't work on a hockey rink.

 

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I don't follow to logic that vaccinated is somehow safer for others.  N95 sure.

?? N95 doesn't work 100%.  It's right there in the name - it only stops 95% of aerosol particles between .1 and 1 micron.  Vaccination doesn't work 100% either, but it does reduce your likelihood of becoming infected by a factor of about 3 with the Delta variant.  So why do you understand the logic for one partial solution, but not the logic for another partial solution?

Again, it's like skydiving.  A reserve won't save your life 100%.  Neither will an AAD, or a helmet, or an RSL, or goggles, or a good spot, or a safe airplane, or good student training, or exit separation, or a good breakoff, or a safe landing area.  But some combination of those things makes skydiving safe ENOUGH to keep deaths down to a minimum.

If we implement vaccinations and NPI's that are sufficient to get Re below 1, then the pandemic will slowly die off.  People will still get infected and people will still die.  But they will decline until it's no more dangerous than (say) the flu is now.  That's the goal.  Not 100% perfect safety; that's an illusion.

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Want to stay out of the ICU?  Lower your BMI.  That not just makes covid a lightning strike rarity for complications but a host of other factors.

And get enough exercise.  And wear a mask.  And get vaccinated.  And avoid having parties with infected people.  And distance where you can.  And talk to your doctor if you feel sick.

Do all of those things and you are in good shape.  Do most of them and you're probably in good shape.  Just "be in good shape" because you think that's better than vaccination?  You might end up as one of those stories in the news about what not to do.

================================

Fitness enthusiast, 42, who rejected vaccine, dies of Covid

John Eyers had been climbing mountains four weeks before his death in intensive care.

 

 

Sarah Marsh

@sloumarsh

Wed 4 Aug 2021 14.11 EDT

 

A “fit and healthy” 42-year-old who loved climbing mountains and lifting weights has died of Covid-19 after refusing to get vaccinated, leaving his twin sister and mother heartbroken.

The two women warned others not to think they are invulnerable to the dangers of the virus.

The father of one, John Eyers, a construction expert from Southport in Merseyside, was described by his sister Jenny McCann as “the fittest, healthiest person I know”.

She added that her brother had been climbing Welsh mountains and camping in the wild four weeks before his death.

But he was left in intensive care after catching coronavirus, and told his consultant before he was ventilated that he wished he had been vaccinated. His twin said his death was “a tragedy”.

“He thought if he contracted Covid-19 he would be OK. He thought he would have a mild illness. He didn’t want to put a vaccine in his body. His was pumped full of every drug in the hospital. They threw everything at him,” McCann said on Twitter.

“It should not have happened. He leaves a mum and a dad, a sister (me), and a 19-year-old daughter. My two children have lost their fun uncle. The uncle who would always play with them.”

. . .

“You can see it dawn on them that they potentially made the biggest mistake of their lives [in not getting the vaccine], which is really hard,” she said, adding that she had overheard people telling family members about their remorse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

[jakee 1,254]

2 hours ago, base698 said:

If being vaccinated does nothing to stop the spread

Since no one said anything remotely like that, the rest of your post is irrelevant.

[RlcII 0]

Vaccinations and masks are per personal requirement not mandatory. 

Virus particles are between 

60-140 ng  with that said. 

There are 1000 ng in 1 micron 

So n95 mask is rated at 

95% effective @ particles @330ng.    ng=nanograms 

=.3 microns 

You do the math.

Ask the China's bio-wepons dept. 

If it was an accident. 

I'll wait for CCP answer. 

NO IM NOT WONG. 

Trained by US Navy 

I'm sure you aren't. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by RlcII

[billvon 2,396]

31 minutes ago, RlcII said:

Virus particles are between 60-140 ng  with that said.  There are 1000 ng in 1 micron  So n95 mask is rated at  95% effective @ particles @330ng.  .3 microns   You do the math.

Nope.  Individual free SARS-CoV-2 virions are around .1uM in size.  N95 masks filter out all of them.  The N95 refers to the 'intermediate size' particles above .1uM but below 1uM - these are the most difficult to filter out.  They are also important, since there are very few free virions floating around in the air - most hitch a ride on an aerosol.

Also note that a mask doesn't work like a spaghetti strainer, where small pieces of spaghetti can fall through if the hole is big enough.  It's a lot more complicated than that.  A primer if you are interested:

 

[jakee 1,254]

3 hours ago, RlcII said:

Trained by US Navy 

In epidemiology?

[gowlerk 1,911]

8 hours ago, base698 said:

If being vaccinated does nothing to stop the spread.  How do you jump to, "must be vaccinated to have a job?"

The more people that are vaccinated the sooner the pandemic becomes endemic and under control. Vaccine mandates are not about the individuals, they are about the herd. The majority of us sheep want to keep the wolf at bay so we are going to play hardball with the black sheep who want to resist. We can't hold you down and inject you. We would, but we can't. So we will instead make you an offer you can't refuse. We are going to make it more and more difficult for you to function as a full member of society until you take on the responsibility of a full member of society. In other words, we will squeeze you until you cave. Most of you will cave when it starts impeding your ability to make a living. Some of you won't, but enough will. And that is what is just beginning now.

Edited August 28, 2021 by gowlerk

[lippy 771]

56 minutes ago, jakee said:

In epidemiology?

No, but you should see his backstroke

Edited August 29, 2021 by lippy

[kallend 1,623]

6 hours ago, RlcII said:

 

NO IM NOT WONG. 

 

But you are Chinese, right?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 hours ago, RlcII said:

 

Ask the China's bio-wepons dept. 

If it was an accident. 

I'll wait for CCP answer. 

 

Well, the CCP is saying that Covid came out of the US. 

Ft Detrick to be precise.

Really.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58273322

[JoeWeber 2,299]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

But you are Chinese, right?

Xie Xie

[murps2000 86]

14 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Well, the CCP is saying that Covid came out of the US. 

Ft Detrick to be precise.

Really.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58273322

LOL My old home town. We had anthrax before it was cool.

[base698 1]

On 8/28/2021 at 4:40 PM, gowlerk said:

The more people that are vaccinated the sooner the pandemic becomes endemic and under control. Vaccine mandates are not about the individuals, they are about the herd.

The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month (Israel studies) [1].  Boosters are largely acknowledged as required at 5 months.  There is no testing for boosters past the second dose.  We know second dose is bad, maybe third and forth will be even worse and has ill effects?  Is your intent to mandate a Pfizer subscription every three months?

 

On 8/28/2021 at 9:55 AM, billvon said:

Just "be in good shape" because you think that's better than vaccination?  You might end up as one of those stories in the news about what not to do.

Like skydiving, don't swoop, practice your emergency procedures and do canopy drills.  You may still die, but overall it's way lower risk than the 400 jump wonder on a crossbraced canopy his first season.  There are anecdotes about vaccine deaths too.  

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/israel-covid-case-breakthrough-data-shows-vaccines-not-pandemic-silver-bullet-1622465

[gowlerk 1,911]

5 minutes ago, base698 said:

The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month

I’m sure you are fully qualified to make assertions and come to conclusions about vaccine effectiveness based on some information you acquired. However I will go with the recommendation of the best medical advice available. And further I will point out that essentially everyone in the hospital or dying from the virus is from the unvaccinated population. 

[Baksteen 84]

Nobody has ever said vaccines are 100% effective. But then again, nobody has ever said they lose 40% effectivity a month. Not even your source.

I'd like to point out *again* that a vaccines' effectiveness (in %) is measured by comparing how many people in the vaccine group contract covid compared to the non-vaccine group.
So if the virus changes, so might the effectiveness. If the number of cases spikes, a vaccinated person will have increased chance of (repeated) exposure to COVID. Hence more chance of the virus successfully infecting them.

Lastly, I'm pro-vaccinating third world regions (which seem to include some regions in practically every first- and second world country as well) before mandating extra boosters.
The longer the virus is allowed to run unchecked, the more chance of mutations.

The more mutations, the more chance of a strain eventually popping up which lowers the vaccine efficacy even further.

A mutation is a small change in the viral code, which happens when the virus reporoduces.
Most mutations are harmless to the virus. Nothing changes.
Some are harmful to the virus and will be weeded out as the new virus tries to compete with other strains.

Some mutations are beneficial to the virus, for instance by giving it a shorter incubation time or improved resistance to the vaccine.

[Phil1111 910]

16 minutes ago, base698 said:

The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month (Israel studies) [1].  Boosters are largely acknowledged as required at 5 months.  There is no testing for boosters past the second dose.  We know second dose is bad, maybe third and forth will be even worse and has ill effects?  Is your intent to mandate a Pfizer subscription every three months?

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/israel-covid-case-breakthrough-data-shows-vaccines-not-pandemic-silver-bullet-1622465

That is a very troubling report, the data and representations are unprecedented.

From Science Magazine

"What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”

I would want to see such data confirmed elsewhere. In the meantime no bars and NFL games for me.

[billvon 2,396]

19 minutes ago, base698 said:

The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month (Israel studies) [1].  Boosters are largely acknowledged as required at 5 months.  There is no testing for boosters past the second dose.  We know second dose is bad, maybe third and forth will be even worse and has ill effects? 

Per US studies they lose about 2% effectiveness over 3 months - for the same strain (critical note there.)  If you vaccinated during the original strain, and then looked at vaccination effectiveness during a Delta outbreak, you would falsely assume that vaccine effectiveness was declining rapidly - because you were seeing many more breakthrough infections due to a more infectious variant.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e2.htm
 

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We know second dose is bad, maybe third and forth will be even worse and has ill effects?

From the people who have gotten three - it doesn't seem significantly worse.

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Is your intent to mandate a Pfizer subscription every three months?

No one has suggested that.  Nor do we even know today what will work.  It may be that boosters will be needed.  It may be that heterologous vaccination is the best way to go.  It may be that a new vaccine is needed.  That's because COVID is mutating.  We currently have perfect conditions to force mutations - half the population unvaccinated (which means a steady supply of infection) and half the population is vaccinated (thus providing a selective pressure towards vaccine-resistant strains.)  We can reduce that forcing by getting more people vaccinated.

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Like skydiving, don't swoop, practice your emergency procedures and do canopy drills.  You may still die, but overall it's way lower risk than the 400 jump wonder on a crossbraced canopy his first season. 

Yep. So get vaccinated, use NPI's and get tested regularly.  You may still die, but it's way lower risk than the anti-vaxxer who decided that vitamin C and ivermectin was the perfect defense.

Quote

There are anecdotes about vaccine deaths too.  

There are anecdotes about how most people who skydive die within their first 100 jumps.  Because some guy heard about how his roommate's brother died.

 

 

[base698 1]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

I’m sure you are fully qualified to make assertions and come to conclusions about vaccine effectiveness based on some information you acquired. However I will go with the recommendation of the best medical advice available. And further I will point out that essentially everyone in the hospital or dying from the virus is from the unvaccinated population. 

Every data source I've seen that says this is including January to present.  The vaccine wasn't widely available until April and cases were already falling in February.  I don't think you can say either way.  There are geographical examples (UK and Israel) that have vaccinated individuals neck and neck with unvaccinated.  Luckily, like with regular Covid hospitalizations, they skew way older. 

 

52 minutes ago, billvon said:

You may still die, but it's way lower risk than the anti-vaxxer who decided that vitamin C and ivermectin was the perfect defense.

Vitamin D :)  Seriously though I never mentioned either.  You're better off being in shape, n95, not going to bars and high traffic indoor events than taking the vaccine. 

 

1 hour ago, Baksteen said:

The longer the virus is allowed to run unchecked, the more chance of mutations.

The more mutations, the more chance of a strain eventually popping up which lowers the vaccine efficacy even further.

This is actually more true in non-sterilizing vaccines.  Organisms (if you count virus as such) respond to selection pressure.  Vaccines that don't kill it mean more mutations.  https://www.newsweek.com/leaky-vaccines-may-create-stronger-viruses-357575

[olofscience 420]

10 minutes ago, base698 said:

This is actually more true in non-sterilizing vaccines.  Organisms (if you count virus as such) respond to selection pressure.  Vaccines that don't kill it mean more mutations.

Um, what? Vaccines don't kill viruses. They prepare your immune system to recognise the virus earlier.

EDIT to clarify: no vaccine in the world for any disease kills viruses. It's in the definition of vaccine.

10 minutes ago, base698 said:

You're better off being in shape, n95, not going to bars and high traffic indoor events than taking the vaccine.

"you're better off preparing your immune system and avoiding exposure to the virus than preparing your immune system".

There's more than one way to prepare your immune system from the virus - one of them is the vaccine.

Edited August 30, 2021 by olofscience

[olofscience 420]

17 minutes ago, base698 said:

This is actually more true in non-sterilizing vaccines. 

I'm actually still stumped on what a "sterilizing" vaccine would be - would that be injecting/inhaling bleach or shining UV light (where the sun don't shine) as Trump suggested?

[gowlerk 1,911]

17 minutes ago, base698 said:

  I don't think you can say either way.

None of where you going makes sense at all. So once again I will say do what you want but understand that you will be under more and more pressure to get vaccinated. We will make an offer that most people can't refuse.

[base698 1]

3 minutes ago, olofscience said:

I'm actually still stumped on what a "sterilizing" vaccine would be - would that be injecting/inhaling bleach or shining UV light (where the sun don't shine) as Trump suggested?

Sterilizing immunity is a pretty common term.  I've seen sterilizing vaccine used to imply that.  It was pretty clear from the link what was meant.

[base698 1]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

None of where you going makes sense at all. So once again I will say do what you want but understand that you will be under more and more pressure to get vaccinated. We will make an offer that most people can't refuse.

Yeah I'm sure you will. Whatever authoritarian measures give greater profits to Pfizer and big sugar and make you feel safer.  

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“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”

― C. S. Lewis