Basic Arithmetic

[SkyDekker 1,120]

3 hours ago, Stumpy said:

Yet that debt is less expensive in terms of the ability to service it than it was in the 90s

 

Debt service as a percentage of GDP is at an almost historic low (Not in the chart, but it is also at an almost historic low as a percentage of total expenditures):

majority of debt is owned by the Public, which also makes Winsor's OP ludicrous.

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by SkyDekker

[winsor 185]

17 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Debt service as a percentage of GDP is at an almost historic low (Not in the chart, but it is also at an almost historic low as a percentage of total expenditures):

majority of debt is owned by the Public, which also makes Winsor's OP ludicrous.

 

The interest rate is somewhat artificially set at zero in order to generate limitless currency, so the debt service is pointless.  Set the interest rate at, say, 3%, run the numbers and get back to me.

Quite who gets stiffed in the case of default is academic as well.  Insolvent is insolvent.

If you could point me to a scenario whereby the U.S. Gov't could live within its means, you have my attention.  As it is, if our line of credit gets cut off, the system will implode.  It's happened before, and it isn't pretty.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

 

 

[SkyDekker 1,120]

On 8/14/2021 at 3:58 AM, winsor said:

Quite who gets stiffed in the case of default is academic as well.  Insolvent is insolvent.

No it isn't. The majority of the debt is "owned" by the same people who are repaying the debt.

 

On 8/14/2021 at 3:58 AM, winsor said:

Set the interest rate at, say, 3%, run the numbers and get back to me.

But the interest rate isn't 3%. Sure, you can come up with lots of what-if scenarios, but your OP said you are fucked now, not based on some imaginary what-if scenario.

You would think that such an amazing science mind like you would understand that you can't keep moving the goal posts and that when you do have to keep moving goal posts to prove your hypothesis true, it was false all along.

[Stumpy 254]

2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

......when you do have to keep moving goal posts to prove your hypothesis true, it was false all along.

Also, a good indicator of someone who isn't as smart as they think.

[winsor 185]

6 hours ago, Stumpy said:

Also, a good indicator of someone who isn't as smart as they think.

So if you divide 30 trillion into 300 million it looks like close to $100 Grand for every US citizen, not just taxpayers..  Even if you ignore the vigorish, that's a serious debt load above and beyond all the other debts people voluntarily carry. 

If you can point out a mechanism whereby this might ever get paid, or at least be held at any particular limit, you have my attention.  

Otherwise it looks remarkably similar to various attempts at endlessly printing of currency, all of which ended disasterously. 

If truly 'this time it's different,' please explain exactly how it's different.

 

Thanks,

Winsor

[murps2000 86]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

So if you divide 30 trillion into 300 million it looks like close to $100 Grand for every US citizen, not just taxpayers..  Even if you ignore the vigorish, that's a serious debt load above and beyond all the other debts people voluntarily carry. 

If you can point out a mechanism whereby this might ever get paid, or at least be held at any particular limit, you have my attention.  

Otherwise it looks remarkably similar to various attempts at endlessly printing of currency, all of which ended disasterously. 

If truly 'this time it's different,' please explain exactly how it's different.

 

Thanks,

Winsor

https://www.macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-gdp-ratio-historical-chart

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

One thing that's different is the debt to gdp ratio which is higher than it's ever been. The only time it was close to this high was at the end of WW2.

[SkyDekker 1,120]

14 hours ago, murps2000 said:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-gdp-ratio-historical-chart

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

One thing that's different is the debt to gdp ratio which is higher than it's ever been. The only time it was close to this high was at the end of WW2.

Probably time to increase that general revenue vs GDP ratio, which hasn't really moved since 1947. Specially since the USA has one of the lowest ratios in the OECD to begin with.

Of modern President, Bill Clinton performed among the best when it comes to moderate increases of debt to GDP ratio. he did that since he also increased revenue to GDP ratio. American's don't like that, but the fact of the matter is, that if long term financial health of your country is important to you, stop voting Republican.

[billvon 2,379]

On 8/16/2021 at 5:53 PM, winsor said:

So if you divide 30 trillion into 300 million it looks like close to $100 Grand for every US citizen, not just taxpayers..  Even if you ignore the vigorish, that's a serious debt load above and beyond all the other debts people voluntarily carry. 

The average US mortgage holder has $180 grand in debt.  That's voluntary.

We are now an economy based on debt.  In fact it's really the only way we grow the money supply nowadays.  You could revamp our economic system and outlaw new debt, but of course that would cripple our economy.