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billvon

Climate change problems are here

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Yesterday Lake Mead hit a new record low - 37% of capacity.  It can't go much lower without uncovering the outlets that supply water to the various canals that supply water to farmers and cities.  It was last full in 2000, and since then has dropped 130 feet.

This drought has already caused water rationing in California, and it will mean less water for farmers and cities this summer and fall.  It will also mean less power, since power generation capacity is related to head (height of water behind the dam compared to the water level below the dam.)

For decades people have been talking about planning for climate change, and perhaps mitigating them through CO2 reductions.  Now climate change is here and it will affect people directly.  No more "planning for" or "if it happens."  It's here, and is going to make a lot of people's lives miserable, especially in Arizona and Nevada.  If this continues into next winter (and it will unless there's an El Nino year that dumps a lot of rain) then there will be 25% automatic cutbacks to amount of water delivered to those states.  And that's for everything - farming, domestic water, golf courses, even fire hydrants.

It's going to be very hard to convince anyone in those states that "there's no such thing as climate change."

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47 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Watch for a new round of "I got mine" from the upstream people.

Wendy P.

Hi Wendy,

Or this:  Two farmers with ties to anti-government activist Ammon Bundy have purchased land by a shut-off irrigation canal in Oregon

Farmers buy land, make camp by shut Oregon irrigation canal (yahoo.com)

It did not work at the US Capital on 6 Jan; but, who knows, maybe it will work here.

Jerry Baumchen

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(edited)

I am at Page,AZ right  now. I took these pics less than an hour ago. Lake Powell is at about 1/3 capacity and the mighty Colorado looks like a stagnant pond downstream of the dam. The hydro generators are not turning  

861B3ECA-79B6-4259-B8E7-C4E0B2E513DD.jpeg

BC896436-B133-4CC5-96B7-E7C1DC04962A.jpeg

Edited by kallend

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The key impacts — heat, drought and shorter seasons — will result in the industry failing. It’s arguably already happening, and it’s coming far faster than industry leaders believe,” explains Auden Schendler, the senior vice president of Sustainability for Aspen Snowmass.

Although the CCC study is new, ski area concerns about climate change are not. “We’ve been thinking about this for twenty years, and it’s all playing out precisely as the science said it would — but slightly worse,” says Schendler. “The ski business is going to become unviable, and it’s going to happen from a few directions.First you’ll see smaller, regional, lower-elevation resorts going out of business due to heat. It’s already happening. Second, even big, established resorts are going to see their season crimped — later start, earlier end."

Perhaps its time for the oil industry and their shareholders to pay for the damages petroleum causes.Just as the tobacco industry had to pay.

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On 6/11/2021 at 6:17 PM, billvon said:

Yesterday Lake Mead hit a new record low - 37% of capacity.  It can't go much lower without uncovering the outlets that supply water to the various canals that supply water to farmers and cities.  It was last full in 2000, and since then has dropped 130 feet.

This drought has already caused water rationing in California, and it will mean less water for farmers and cities this summer and fall.  It will also mean less power, since power generation capacity is related to head (height of water behind the dam compared to the water level below the dam.)

For decades people have been talking about planning for climate change, and perhaps mitigating them through CO2 reductions.  Now climate change is here and it will affect people directly.  No more "planning for" or "if it happens."  It's here, and is going to make a lot of people's lives miserable, especially in Arizona and Nevada.  If this continues into next winter (and it will unless there's an El Nino year that dumps a lot of rain) then there will be 25% automatic cutbacks to amount of water delivered to those states.  And that's for everything - farming, domestic water, golf courses, even fire hydrants.

It's going to be very hard to convince anyone in those states that "there's no such thing as climate change."

The Southwest has a semi arid/desert climate. There have been droughts in the past that far exceeded what is happening today, most of which predate the industrial revolution.  This is nothing unusual or unprecedented.  #weather

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1 hour ago, airdvr said:

I have to say...I'm in Pismo Beach for the week.  Lots of car washes...farms running irrigation on 101.  I would think a drought would require not running car washes and such.

Yes it would.  But then the car washes would make less money.  So why should they suffer while (this other thing that needs water) can operate?

Which is why, sadly, it will take laws and jail time for offenders.  Because the concept of working together towards a common good is long gone.

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1 hour ago, airdvr said:

I have to say...I'm in Pismo Beach for the week.  Lots of car washes...farms running irrigation on 101.  I would think a drought would require not running car washes and such.

Commercial car washes recycle water. They use less water per wash than typically used at home.

 

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I don't live in CA or AZ. It doesn't affect me, so why should I care? So what if the pecan farmers can't grow their crops. Pecans suck anyway. We should all move to eating walnuts. If CA wants more water, there's this giant ocean right off their coast. Plenty of water there for everybody.

And who really cares about ski resorts. Skiing sucks. It is cold out when you go. Many people get injured every year. There will still be snow in Canada, if you really must do it. I've never been skiing in my life and don't plan on it in the future. It doesn't affect me, so why should I care?

What I can't live without is my car. My lawn mower. A way to get around to my job. All the appliances in my house. If a few people in CA and CO have to change their life slightly so that I don't have to change mine, so be it. It is just weather anyway. I mean really, there wasn't snow in CO when the dinosaurs were around and that was WAY before the industrial revolution. And I'm too lazy to go look up that stat so I will just say it with authority so that you all will believe me.

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3 hours ago, airdvr said:

I have to say...I'm in Pismo Beach for the week.  Lots of car washes...farms running irrigation on 101.  I would think a drought would require not running car washes and such.

Approved by Governor  September 25, 2012. Filed with Secretary of State  September 25, 2012. ]

 

LEGISLATIVE COUNSEL'S DIGEST

 

AB 2230, Gatto. Recycled water: car washes.
Existing law requires the State Water Resources Control Board to take appropriate actions to prevent waste or the unreasonable use of water. Under existing law, the board makes determinations with regard to the availability of recycled water.
This bill would require an in-bay car wash, as defined, or a conveyor car wash, as defined, permitted and constructed after January 1, 2014, to either install, use, and maintain a water recycling system, as defined, that recycles and reuses at least 60% of the wash and rinse water, or to use recycled water provided by a water supplier for at least 60% of its wash and rinse water.

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2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/5/JCLI-D-20-0365.1.xml
 

“U.S. Pacific Coastal Droughts Are Predominantly Driven by Internal Atmospheric Variability”

Go on then, why don't you read and digest that paper, and summarise what it ACTUALLY means back to us. (Hint: the answer almost certainly isn't what you think it is.)

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2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/5/JCLI-D-20-0365.1.xml
 

“U.S. Pacific Coastal Droughts Are Predominantly Driven by Internal Atmospheric Variability”

Here we go again...

  1. The title doesn't say what you think it means
  2. So you trust computational models now?

You're going to embarrass yourself yet again, so really, just stop.

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5 hours ago, olofscience said:

Here we go again...

  1. The title doesn't say what you think it means
  2. So you trust computational models now?

You're going to embarrass yourself yet again, so really, just stop.

From one of the primary references in that paper:

"Research has also placed the tropical Pacific SST boundary forcing in the context of model projections of global warming. Cook et al. (2010), for instance, recognize that, although the IPCC AR4 models robustly predict a shift toward dry conditions in the NASW, there is no agreement on the future state of the tropical Pacific, despite the strong connection between ENSO and NASW hydroclimate. This is because predicted drying arises not by any change in the spatial patterns of tropical SSTs but rather by overall planetary warming."

In other words, sorta doesn't matter too much what the ENSO does; it's getting drier due to global warming anyway. and thus the variability caused by the ENSO will be overlaid on top of a drought signal.

 

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11 hours ago, billvon said:

From one of the primary references in that paper:

"Research has also placed the tropical Pacific SST boundary forcing in the context of model projections of global warming. Cook et al. (2010), for instance, recognize that, although the IPCC AR4 models robustly predict a shift toward dry conditions in the NASW, there is no agreement on the future state of the tropical Pacific, despite the strong connection between ENSO and NASW hydroclimate. This is because predicted drying arises not by any change in the spatial patterns of tropical SSTs but rather by overall planetary warming."

In other words, sorta doesn't matter too much what the ENSO does; it's getting drier due to global warming anyway. and thus the variability caused by the ENSO will be overlaid on top of a drought signal.

 

It's almost as if Brent doesn't really understand what he's commenting on.

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