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BIGUN

The future of EV's

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6 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Other than that, the only thing that wears out is brakes & tires.

I'm just now studying up on this "Regenerative Braking." I still have a hard time believing that with moving parts EV's can't utilize that energy to increase its mileage. 

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3 hours ago, BIGUN said:

I'm just now studying up on this "Regenerative Braking." I still have a hard time believing that with moving parts EV's can't utilize that energy to increase its mileage. 

The simple answer is, they do. They still need friction brakes as well though. Nothing else works as fast as turning the energy of momentum into waste heat.

Edited by gowlerk

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4 hours ago, BIGUN said:

I'm just now studying up on this "Regenerative Braking." I still have a hard time believing that with moving parts EV's can't utilize that energy to increase its mileage. 

If you drive your EV with a constant speed you get X miles out of your battery.
As soon as you start braking and accelerating you only get x minus a loss.
Increasing the milage means you cut down on the loss but you will never get the X miles out of that trip.
At least that's how my little brain understands these regenerative systems.

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13 hours ago, billvon said:

I think it will be a bit later than that.

There are going to be a lot of phases to the rollout of EV's.

The first one (now past) is the early-adopter phase, where lousy EV's are sold in tiny quantities to early adopters.  Not in sufficient quantities to move the needle, and purchasers are all technophiles who want EV's for reasons other than cost or performance.

The second one (also now past) is the early market entry, where several manufacturers make EV's and "regular people" start to buy them.  They are still a niche market and represent perhaps 1% of sales.  At this point, people want EV's because they look cool, they don't like gas companies and they go really fast.  An important thing that happens at this point is that infrastructure begins to get built out for them - EV chargers, new electric rates, service centers.

The third phase (that we are in now) we see EV's make up 1-10% of new cars sold.  Now people are buying them for performance, status, AND price, because they are getting cheaper and cheaper - and gas prices are still going up, while solar is driving ownership costs way down.  And there's enough infrastructure to support most people who want to use them (and who aren't engineers.)

The fourth phase - more than 10% sold - starts to have a secondary economic impact.  As demand for gasoline goes down, the laws of supply and demand start driving the cost of gas down.  This removes some economic incentive, so growth in EV sales slows down.

In the fifth phase we start reaching 30-40% sales and they start taking off again because everyone has them and they are now considerably cheaper than gas cars.  This may happen due to a change in an old technology (using cheap but high capacity LiFePO4 batteries for example, as they are doing now in China) some new technology (glass/solid state lithium metal batteries) or just to the usual efficiencies of scale.  This will not be the "death knell" for gas cars but they will start to become more of a collector's/red state item, as the economies of scale start slipping away from them, and the inherent complexity, maintenance and expense of internal combustion engines prevents any further lowering of price.

I think we will hit the fourth phase within 5 years - but adoption will slow down after that,

I was enjoying reading and learning until the "red state" comment. Is that because red states have lower taxes and lower gas prices? What is the CA tax on a $35K vehicle and the current fuel price? In my county in SC the tax is $994 and gas is $1.70. The taxes are highly dependent on what county you live in. For me, 76% of the tax is for schools. The other 24% is emergency services, trash, library, zoo, tech schools, and indigent and elderly care.

Getting away from politics. It will be interesting to see how the night time charging impacts the generation curve for electric utilities, and if it impacts pricing. It's a good thing that night time generation is typically less expensive but that's also the time that minor maintenance can be done. There are multiple coal mills, fans, pumps, motors and control systems supporting the generator. When the generator load is reduced they can take them out of service and do maintenance. Another item is the cooling system. It usually has 2 to 4 sections. When load is reduced they take them out of service to fix tube leaks. All these are standard maintenance requirements to keep the units operating at full capacity the next day. Our energy charge is 5.1 cents / kWh. 

It will be interesting to see if EV charging has a noticeable impact on that.

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14 hours ago, billvon said:

I think it will be a bit later than that.

There are going to be a lot of phases to the rollout of EV's.

The first one (now past) is the early-adopter phase, where lousy EV's are sold in tiny quantities to early adopters.  Not in sufficient quantities to move the needle, and purchasers are all technophiles who want EV's for reasons other than cost or performance.

The second one (also now past) is the early market entry, where several manufacturers make EV's and "regular people" start to buy them.  They are still a niche market and represent perhaps 1% of sales.  At this point, people want EV's because they look cool, they don't like gas companies and they go really fast.  An important thing that happens at this point is that infrastructure begins to get built out for them - EV chargers, new electric rates, service centers.

The third phase (that we are in now) we see EV's make up 1-10% of new cars sold.  Now people are buying them for performance, status, AND price, because they are getting cheaper and cheaper - and gas prices are still going up, while solar is driving ownership costs way down.  And there's enough infrastructure to support most people who want to use them (and who aren't engineers.)

The fourth phase - more than 10% sold - starts to have a secondary economic impact.  As demand for gasoline goes down, the laws of supply and demand start driving the cost of gas down.  This removes some economic incentive, so growth in EV sales slows down.

In the fifth phase we start reaching 30-40% sales and they start taking off again because everyone has them and they are now considerably cheaper than gas cars.  This may happen due to a change in an old technology (using cheap but high capacity LiFePO4 batteries for example, as they are doing now in China) some new technology (glass/solid state lithium metal batteries) or just to the usual efficiencies of scale.  This will not be the "death knell" for gas cars but they will start to become more of a collector's/red state item, as the economies of scale start slipping away from them, and the inherent complexity, maintenance and expense of internal combustion engines prevents any further lowering of price.

I think we will hit the fourth phase within 5 years - but adoption will slow down after that,

I'm thinking it will ramp up fast after Phase Four owing to an unpredicted Black Electron Event. After 20% or so market penetration it will be a simple matter of odds that you can pull up behind or park next to another EV. Then you'll just need to push the Red button on your BillVon-o-tron device and Faraday some induced current from some old lady's VW into your Jag I-Pace's, now unlimited mileage, battery pack and you are off again. A major side benefit will be that soon all of the least aware and cell phone focused drivers will be out of juice and on the side of the road where they belong. It's the future, baby.

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16 hours ago, olofscience said:

Every major car company has now announced major moves to EV. Yet your prediction is still wrong.

Care to put a date on that one? How about 2025? It's only around 4 years away.

I’m still waiting for your year by year projections. Or do we need to wait four years before we get a good chuckle?

Edited by brenthutch

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49 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

I'm thinking it will ramp up fast after Phase Four owing to an unpredicted Black Electron Event. After 20% or so market penetration it will be a simple matter of odds that you can pull up behind or park next to another EV. Then you'll just need to push the Red button on your BillVon-o-tron device and Faraday some induced current from some old lady's VW into your Jag I-Pace's, now unlimited mileage, battery pack and you are off again. A major side benefit will be that soon all of the least aware and cell phone focused drivers will be out of juice and on the side of the road where they belong. It's the future, baby.

The NYT predicts by 2035, nearly 15% of the cars on the road will be EVs.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/10/climate/electric-vehicle-fleet-turnover.html

Edited by brenthutch

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1 hour ago, billeisele said:

I was enjoying reading and learning until the "red state" comment. Is that because red states have lower taxes and lower gas prices? ...

...Getting away from politics...

No. It's because the 'red states' tend to be more resistant to change. 

Part of being 'conservative' is the idea that stuff is great the way it is and change is unnecessary.

That's why 'red states' are not addressing climate change, incentivizing renewable power, enacting rules that protect the environment, that sort of thing (there's a much longer list, but I won't go there now).

Look at Brent's attitude. Very typical of the 'red state' mentality. 

Given how many people have a similar attitude, it's impossible to take the politics out of it. 
Throw in how many people are invested (financially, emotionally, lots of ways) in the current fossil fuel status quo, and how many politicians those people own.

On a 'level playing field', EVs would be a decent option, with the viability increasing over time.
However, the subsidies given the fossil fuel industry (both direct and indirect) tip the scales a long, long way towards them. 

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11 hours ago, TriGirl said:

Getting prepared for my move back to the U.S. later this year, I have been considering what kind of car to buy.  I like the Subaru Crosstrek, but also had the Hundai Kona recently turn my head.  I just learned today that the Kona is available in EV, in three levels of trim, for what I think is a reasonable price range.  Add the tax incentive, and I'm pretty sure that's the car I'm going to purchase. 

I may have to go to Maryland to pick it up, but that's easy.  I can just put it on the auto train for the transport down to Florida.  :D

 

You may find these interesting.

How Long Does it Take to Charge an Electric Vehicle?

What's an electric car really like to live with? Pros and cons revealed

Electric cars: EV buying advice and information

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10 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

That first link mentions the fact that the charging rate decreases dramatically above 80%.

Jason Fenske (of the "Engineering Explained" Youtube channel), found that he could make a long road trip faster by charging only to 80%, even though it increased the number of charging stops he had to make, driving his Tesla.

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22 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:


Look at Brent's attitude. Very typical of the 'red state' mentality. 
 

My “attitude” reflects the simple reality laid out by the New York Times.  I think we can all agree the NYT is not some hayseed, red neck, red state rag.  I am not the contrarian here, the “we will all be driving EVs in four years” guys are the ones with their heads in the clouds.

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4 minutes ago, ryoder said:

That first link mentions the fact that the charging rate decreases dramatically above 80%.

Jason Fenske (of the "Engineering Explained" Youtube channel), found that he could make a long road trip faster by charging only to 80%, even though it increased the number of charging stops he had to make, driving his Tesla.

You also understand why some EV's are so much more. When you can plug into 240v and 100 amps!

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1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

My “attitude” reflects the simple reality laid out by the New York Times.  I think we can all agree the NYT is not some hayseed, red neck, red state rag.  I am not the contrarian here, the “we will all be driving EVs in four years” guys are the ones with their heads in the clouds.

Why not make your point W/O moving the goalposts. Many major manufactures have plans to go all electric in 10 years or so. Given the average trade in life of a vehicle at ? seven years. That would put the majority of vehicles being EV. by about 2038.

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7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Why not make your point W/O moving the goalposts. Many major manufactures have plans to go all electric in 10 years or so. Given the average trade in life of a vehicle at ? seven years. That would put the majority of vehicles being EV. by about 2038.

Read the article, the goalposts are not mine.

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2 hours ago, phantomII said:

As soon as you start braking and accelerating you only get x minus a loss.
Increasing the milage means you cut down on the loss but you will never get the X miles out of that trip.

Well, so far, that's about all I'm getting out of it also. 

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6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Electric Vehicles: Setting a course to be outsold two to one by internal combustion vehicles in a decade.

Brent, I've really had enough. Everyone here likes to talk about the issues - both the pros and the cons. We're fortunate to have some very brilliant minds on here and instead of learning from them; you antagonize them with silliness. You really enjoy being a distractor.  I'm asking you to stop. Please.  

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4 hours ago, billeisele said:

I was enjoying reading and learning until the "red state" comment. Is that because red states have lower taxes and lower gas prices?

Because red states have people like Brent who will take pride in not owning a liberal EV.

Quote

It will be interesting to see how the night time charging impacts the generation curve for electric utilities, and if it impacts pricing.

Yep.  In the early phases nighttime charging will be the go-to solution, encouraged by EV TOU pricing.  The extra capacity is there and the infrastructure is underutilized at that time.

At some point the load from EV's charging at midnight will start approaching daytime loads.  At that point there's not going to be much advantage to charging them at night and EV TOU pricing will change to reflect that.  However, if the buildout of solar continues at the same rate, there will be time periods (from 10am to noon for example) where solar generation exceeds demand.  At that point, either utility TOU pricing or more local entities (companies/shopping malls/parking garages) will be offering very cheap charging at those times, since they will not be able to export/use the power otherwise.

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1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

Brent, I've really had enough. Everyone here likes to talk about the issues - both the pros and the cons. We're fortunate to have some very brilliant minds on here and instead of learning from them; you antagonize them with silliness. You really enjoy being a distractor.  I'm asking you to stop. Please.  

One of your “brilliant minds” predicted EVs would overtake internal combustion vehicles in four years.  I ask you just who is being silly?  I’m not throwing bombs here I am giving a much needed reality check.  Nothing I am saying is even close to being controversial. 

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4 minutes ago, billvon said:

Because red states have people like Brent who will take pride in not owning a liberal EV.

Sometimes people forget that all states are really purple, just different shades. 60/40 or 40/60 are the extremes. Really 45/55 is more common.

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1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

Sometimes people forget that all states are really purple, just different shades. 60/40 or 40/60 are the extremes. Really 45/55 is more common.

Agreed.  If demographics were all that drove EV uptake, I'd expect to see slight variances (10-20%) in uptakes based on the demographics of the state.

However, people like Brent also vote, and thus will vote out politicians who fund EV infrastructure, grid improvements and renewables.  This will handicap EV sales and thus have an outsized effect on EV uptakes.

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1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

Brent, I've really had enough. Everyone here likes to talk about the issues - both the pros and the cons. We're fortunate to have some very brilliant minds on here and instead of learning from them; you antagonize them with silliness. You really enjoy being a distractor.  I'm asking you to stop. Please.  

I recommend the "ignore" option as a good alternative to hoping Brent does the right thing.  (You should definitely use it because I can't!)

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