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BIGUN

The future of EV's

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9 hours ago, brenthutch said:

20% is 20%, what facts are I misrepresenting?

While you represented the fact of 20% correctly, you went on to state, " . . . it’s going to be a while before EV are anything more than an upper middle class curiosity." Clear case of confirmation bias - the reinforcement of existing attitudes by selectively presenting evidence.  Or, the fallacy of incomplete evidence which is the act of pointing to individual points of data that confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related data in that same study that may contradict that position. Your last statement indicated the EV market will not succeed and was disingenuous. In short, you left out 90% of the study to present the 10% that fit the point you wanted to make. 

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(edited)
22 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

While you represented the fact of 20% correctly, you went on to state, " . . . it’s going to be a while before EV are anything more than an upper middle class curiosity." Clear case of confirmation bias - the reinforcement of existing attitudes by selectively presenting evidence.  Or, the fallacy of incomplete evidence which is the act of pointing to individual points of data that confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related data in that same study that may contradict that position. Your last statement indicated the EV market will not succeed and was disingenuous. In short, you left out 90% of the study to present the 10% that fit the point you wanted to make. 

I never said it will not succeed.  I just said it will not happen for quite a while and that the billions spent on trying to shorten that timeframe are just wasted billions (except for the politicians that receive kickbacks uh...”donations” from those EV companies).  We tried this during Obama’s term. Doesn’t anyone remember Fisker?

 

Edited by brenthutch

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6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I never said it will not succeed.  I just said it will not happen for quite a while and that the billions spent on trying to shorten that timeframe are just wasted billions (except for the politicians that receive kickbacks uh...”donations” from those EV companies).  We tried this during Obama’s term. Doesn’t anyone remember Fisker?

C'mon, Brent.   

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19 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I never said it will not succeed.  I just said it will not happen for quite a while and that the billions spent on trying to shorten that timeframe are just wasted billions (except for the politicians that receive kickbacks uh...”donations” from those EV companies).  We tried this during Obama’s term. Doesn’t anyone remember Fisker?

Your own source says that charging infrastructure is the main obstacle to increased EV uptake but you don't think spending money on more charging infrastructure will help?

 

Interesting.

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(edited)
21 minutes ago, jakee said:

Your own source says that charging infrastructure is the main obstacle to increased EV uptake but you don't think spending money on more charging infrastructure will help?

 

Interesting.

It might help, but it won’t be the game changer the Pollyannas think it will be.  Everyone crows about all of the EVs sold in Norway.  What they might not know is that those are largely bought in addition to an internal combustion car, NOT a replacement.  Given the rate of adaptation of EVs and the lifespan of conventional vehicles, I don’t see EVs overtaking internal combustion vehicles anytime soon.

Edited by brenthutch

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1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

Or, the fallacy of incomplete evidence which is the act of pointing to individual points of data that confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related data in that same study that may contradict that position.

.....so you mean Brent?

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31 minutes ago, billvon said:

Don't you remember your predictions about Tesla?

Yep, looks like I will be wrong about that one.  That prediction was predicted on the notion that major car companies would enter the EV market in a more substantial way instead of just dabbling around the edges.

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3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

That prediction was predicted on the notion that major car companies would enter the EV market in a more substantial way instead of just dabbling around the edges.

Every major car company has now announced major moves to EV. Yet your prediction is still wrong.

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I don’t see EVs overtaking internal combustion vehicles anytime soon.

Care to put a date on that one? How about 2025? It's only around 4 years away.

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4 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Care to put a date on that one? How about 2025? It's only around 4 years away.

I can predict that he won't make that prediction on the notion that 4 years can mean anytime soon or not 20% of the time. 

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4 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Speaking of Tesla, remember how I slammed Musk for claiming to be able to do autonomous driving without LIDAR?

Bloomberg: Tesla Tests Luminar Sensor Musk Scorned as ‘Fool’s Errand’

Hi Robert,

Remember how Lee Iacocca was so against air bags?  Then a few years later, his ads had him praising them as the best safety improvement Chrysler ever came up with.

Jerry Baumchen

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3 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Robert,

Remember how Lee Iacocca was so against air bags?  Then a few years later, his ads had him praising them as the best safety improvement Chrysler ever came up with.

Jerry Baumchen

I don't recall anything about that, but it clearly happened:

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-1989-10-07-8902030384-story.html

In my defense, that happened while I was in college, too busy to pay much attention to anything that didn't contribute to passing my next exam.

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55 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Speaking of Tesla, remember how I slammed Musk for claiming to be able to do autonomous driving without LIDAR?

Bloomberg: Tesla Tests Luminar Sensor Musk Scorned as ‘Fool’s Errand’

There's no requirement for lidar (or any active scan technology) for autonomous vehicles.  After all, we do fine with purely passive inputs (during the day at least) and the Intel Realsense system works great at small to medium scales.  So he absolutely can be successful without it.

However, there are a lot of things that lidar (or radar, or any active ToF scan) makes much easier.  Having a 3D constellation rather than a 2D constellation of input gives you a lot more accurate data to work with.

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1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Care to put a date on that one? How about 2025? It's only around 4 years away.

I think it will be a bit later than that.

There are going to be a lot of phases to the rollout of EV's.

The first one (now past) is the early-adopter phase, where lousy EV's are sold in tiny quantities to early adopters.  Not in sufficient quantities to move the needle, and purchasers are all technophiles who want EV's for reasons other than cost or performance.

The second one (also now past) is the early market entry, where several manufacturers make EV's and "regular people" start to buy them.  They are still a niche market and represent perhaps 1% of sales.  At this point, people want EV's because they look cool, they don't like gas companies and they go really fast.  An important thing that happens at this point is that infrastructure begins to get built out for them - EV chargers, new electric rates, service centers.

The third phase (that we are in now) we see EV's make up 1-10% of new cars sold.  Now people are buying them for performance, status, AND price, because they are getting cheaper and cheaper - and gas prices are still going up, while solar is driving ownership costs way down.  And there's enough infrastructure to support most people who want to use them (and who aren't engineers.)

The fourth phase - more than 10% sold - starts to have a secondary economic impact.  As demand for gasoline goes down, the laws of supply and demand start driving the cost of gas down.  This removes some economic incentive, so growth in EV sales slows down.

In the fifth phase we start reaching 30-40% sales and they start taking off again because everyone has them and they are now considerably cheaper than gas cars.  This may happen due to a change in an old technology (using cheap but high capacity LiFePO4 batteries for example, as they are doing now in China) some new technology (glass/solid state lithium metal batteries) or just to the usual efficiencies of scale.  This will not be the "death knell" for gas cars but they will start to become more of a collector's/red state item, as the economies of scale start slipping away from them, and the inherent complexity, maintenance and expense of internal combustion engines prevents any further lowering of price.

I think we will hit the fourth phase within 5 years - but adoption will slow down after that,

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10 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Yep, looks like I will be wrong about that one.  That prediction was predicted on the notion that major car companies would enter the EV market in a more substantial way instead of just dabbling around the edges.

Really? So your Tesla short was based on your own proprietary research that showed the majors entering in a more substantial way? Please do share your data lest some here think that statement was unadulterated bullshit.

Edited by JoeWeber
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11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

It might help, but it won’t be the game changer the Pollyannas think it will be.  Everyone crows about all of the horseless carriages sold.  What they might not know is that those are largely bought in addition to an good horse, NOT a replacement.  Given the rate of adaptation of horseless carriages and the lifespan of a good young horse, I don’t see horseless carriages overtaking a good young horse anytime soon.

Some day cultural anthropologists will talk about the last Brent. How the Luddites keep reappearing every fifty years or so.

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2 hours ago, billvon said:

...  An important thing that happens at this point is that infrastructure begins to get built out for them - EV chargers, new electric rates, service centers.

Just out of curiosity, what sort of 'service centers' are you meaning?

 

The dealers are currently the main 'service centers', and independent shops are starting to take them in.

The 'funny' part about it is how little service an electric vehicle needs.

The battery isn't really 'serviceable', just 'replaceable.'

The electronics are modular, and also pretty much just 'replaceable parts'. You're not going to find some kid with a soldering iron repairing control circuitry.

Maybe some parts replacement in the environmental systems, stuff like the blower fan and the servos that move the mixing doors for the heat & A/C. Maybe the A/C itself.

Other than that, the only thing that wears out is brakes & tires.

No oil changes, no coolant flushes, no leaking intake or cam cover gaskets. A lot of routine work on an internal combustion engined car simply won't be needed.

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(edited)
5 hours ago, olofscience said:

Every major car company has now announced major moves to EV. Yet your prediction is still wrong.

Care to put a date on that one? How about 2025? It's only around 4 years away.

Just how many EVs are produced by “announcing a major move”?  
 

With regard to 2025, you have a bet.  To make it more interesting, let’s hear your year, one, two and three predictions.  That way we won’t have to wait four years for a good laugh.
 

 

5 hours ago, olofscience said:

 

Edited by brenthutch

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Getting prepared for my move back to the U.S. later this year, I have been considering what kind of car to buy.  I like the Subaru Crosstrek, but also had the Hundai Kona recently turn my head.  I just learned today that the Kona is available in EV, in three levels of trim, for what I think is a reasonable price range.  Add the tax incentive, and I'm pretty sure that's the car I'm going to purchase. 

I may have to go to Maryland to pick it up, but that's easy.  I can just put it on the auto train for the transport down to Florida.  :D

 

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4 hours ago, billvon said:

The third phase (that we are in now) we see EV's make up 1-10% of new cars sold.  Now people are buying them for performance, status, 

Why would anyone want an EV for anything other than drag strip shenanigans and virtue signaling.  (BTW EVs account for less than 3% of new cars)

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2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Just out of curiosity, what sort of 'service centers' are you meaning?

Just plain automotive service centers.  For some companies (Tesla) it meant starting from the ground up; the one near me is pretty busy most of the time.  For others (Nissan, Toyota) it just means tooling up for the new vehicles, and as you suggest it's pretty minor.  I talked to the local Toyota place and they said that they needed very few new tools (a special jack for lowering one of the battery packs out was about it) - most of what they needed was just the training for the new systems.

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5 hours ago, TriGirl said:

Getting prepared for my move back to the U.S. later this year,

Awesome. Path to retirement? 

5 hours ago, TriGirl said:

I just learned today that the Kona is available in EV, in three levels of trim, for what I think is a reasonable price range.  Add the tax incentive, and I'm pretty sure that's the car I'm going to purchase. 

I'm a fan of Hyundai and Volkswagen. Unfortunately, neither is conducive to my size. In addition to the Federal tax credit, States also have incentives. 

https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state

Welcome back.  

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