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brenthutch

Your friendly climate update

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39 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Galileo? Don't sell yourself short. I was thinking more of Da Vinci or maybe Sagan's opening to "Brocas Brain". 

I think going straight to "they laughed at Einstein, too, you know!" would be a more likely gambit for our favorite bloviator.

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10 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

The original post is one of the most intellectually dishonest cherry-picking posts I've read in awhile. I parsed one of the sources that was quoted - the NOAA page.

Now, you're not supposed to actually read the sources!  Just go with the first three words of the headline, from a story written about the source material.  Preferably written by someone who describes themselves as a "patriot" and a "sheepdog, not a sheep."

I also enjoy the fairly regular "revelation" by climate change deniers that "the IR band blocked by CO2 is almost saturated!  Increasing CO2 concentrations will have less effect per unit over time."  As if that's a new bit of information that isn't included in every modern atmospheric model.

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1 minute ago, billvon said:

I think going straight to "they laughed at Einstein, too, you know!" would be a more likely gambit for our favorite bloviator.

It was a critique of the person refusing to acknowledge the data not the one providing it.  (It’s not even mine it is NOAA’s)

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18 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

The original post is one of the most intellectually dishonest cherry-picking posts I've read in awhile. I parsed one of the sources that was quoted - the NOAA page. There were 12 statements that included judgment. 11 of them made reference to less ice and/or warmer temperatures. The twelfth simply said that the area (Oceania) had its smallest temperature departure since 2012.

So basically you're playing Queen of Hearts, saying that words mean whatever you want them to mean, because they sure don't mean what you seem to be inferring.

As far as "agriculture depends on CO2, well, yes, it does. You depend on water, too, but you can drown in it.

Wendy P.

 

Wendy the bottom line is that the first quarter of this year is one of the coldest in this century.  And sea ice, while below average, is off of its lows and has been stable for the last several years.  Remember this

in his 2007 Nobel prize acceptance speech and, in 2008, a video of the opening of a German museum captured Gore saying that "the entire North polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years." 

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Just now, brenthutch said:

Wendy the bottom line is that the first quarter of this year is one of the coldest in this century.

It's the 9th warmest in 142 years as per your NOAA link.

So it can be coldest in the past eight years, at the most.

Last time I checked, eight years is a lot shorter than a century. Can you even count?

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Brent, "several data points" when it's not part of an overall trend is fairly meaningless. It's kind of like mutual funds that said "we've done really well for the last 10 years, even through the last stock crash" in 2007, or anyone, ever, who has said that real estate always goes up.

You know that, you're picking nits because that's all you've got. And if we've started to do better on some pollutants, let's not ease up because everything is hunky dory. That's kind of like a dieter saying "I've reached my goal weight, now I can go back to eating all I want and not exercising."

Wendy P.

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2 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

You know that, you're picking nits because that's all you've got.

He's not even nitpicking now, he's blatantly lying.

It's not even remotely the coldest first quarter of the year in a century, and even the NOAA page says that quite clearly - it's the 9th warmest first quarter of the year in the NOAA 142-year record.

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16 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

It was a critique of the person refusing to acknowledge the data not the one providing it.  (It’s not even mine it is NOAA’s)

The data you provided (via NOAA) shows that it's the 9th warmest first quarter looking back over more than 100 years.  In the warmest 10%, in other words.  That's why they are laughing at you.

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1 minute ago, wmw999 said:

Brent, "several data points" when it's not part of an overall trend is fairly meaningless. It's kind of like mutual funds that said "we've done really well for the last 10 years, even through the last stock crash" in 2007, or anyone, ever, who has said that real estate always goes up.

You know that, you're picking nits because that's all you've got. And if we've started to do better on some pollutants, let's not ease up because everything is hunky dory. That's kind of like a dieter saying "I've reached my goal weight, now I can go back to eating all I want and not exercising."

Wendy P.

Doesn’t it give you pause (just a little) to see while CO2 has continued to rise global temperatures have remained flat during the 21st century?  (a little help for Olof there)

Have you ever even questioned it just a little bit?

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33 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Ken,

I'm with you.

Mods, do your job.

Jerry Baumchen

Aw, show some heart you guy's. His DZ closed, he's unemployed and stuck at home with the kids. He's already been to Disneyland this year and now his gun club has banned shooting at exploding targets. Time to be a little understanding, seems to me.

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(edited)
2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Doesn’t it give you pause (just a little) to see while CO2 has continued to rise global temperatures have remained flat during the 21st century?  (a little help for Olof there)

Have you ever even questioned it just a little bit?

Ah, so "the coldest this century" is actually the 21 years since 2000?

You must have had so many jokes back in 2000...

And by the way, it was colder than eight of those 21 years at the most. What a slimy misrepresentation...

Edited by olofscience

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(edited)
10 minutes ago, billvon said:

The data you provided (via NOAA) shows that it's the 9th warmest first quarter looking back over more than 100 years.  In the warmest 10%, in other words.  That's why they are laughing at you.

And it’s not even close to being in the top 10% looking back over 5000 years or even the past two decades, and that is why the laughter is mutual.

Let me ask you this Bill; if CO2 is such a powerful GHG that it is, as John Kerry puts it, an existential threat to our very being, why hasn’t it warmed in the last twenty years while CO2 continues to rise?

Edited by brenthutch

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4 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

or even the past two decades

The top 10% of the past 2 decades is 2 years. Nice goalpost setting, especially because you know it's in the top 9 years.

5 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

And it’s not even close to being in the top 10% looking back over 5000 years

Now you're just making stuff up.

Does the lying ever get tiring?

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Gowlerk asked why the last thread was locked

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Olaf

Only if you think that it's because Olof had the "temerity" to continue to answer Brent, rather than just ignore the drivel. That would be pretty much the definition of either clueless or entitled.

Wendy P.

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18 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Let me ask you this Bill; if CO2 is such a powerful GHG that it is, as John Kerry puts it, an existential threat to our very being, why hasn’t it warmed in the last twenty years while CO2 continues to rise?

?? It has.  Warmest years ever, followed by degrees above average:

2016    1.80
2020    1.76
2019    1.71
2015    1.67
2017    1.64
2018    1.49
2014    1.33
2010    1.30
2013    1.22
2005    1.21

So 8 out of the 10 warmest years ever have happened - in the last 10 years.

Or if you prefer to look at it by decades:

1980–1989   +0.317 °F
1990–1999   +0.563 °F
2000–2009   +0.923 °F
2010–2019    +1.355 °F
2020–            +1.76 °F (so far)

Or if you can really only process pictures, see below.

Remember when RushMC posted "there's just one problem with climate change - it ended in 1998!" because 1998 was an unusually warm El Nino year?  Note that 1998 isn't even in the top 10 warmest any more.  The last 10 years have blown it away.

So now that statement looks foolish and shortsighted.  Perhaps avoid making that same mistake again?

 

Average_temp.png

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1 minute ago, wmw999 said:

Gowlerk asked why the last thread was locked

Only if you think that it's because Olof had the "temerity" to continue to answer Brent, rather than just ignore the drivel. That would be pretty much the definition of either clueless or entitled.

Wendy P.

The thread continued for several years thousands of views and posts the addition of Olof seemed to be the only variable.

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(edited)
6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The thread continued for several years thousands of views and posts the addition of Olof seemed to be the only variable.

And the fact that you actually can't answer my questions :rofl:

Let me try again: shall we discuss that preprint paper you posted a link to at the top of this thread?

Edited by olofscience

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3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The thread continued for several years thousands of views and posts the addition of Olof seemed to be the only variable.

I love seeing a poster mansplain why a thread was locked - to the person who locked it.

 

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7 minutes ago, billvon said:

?? It has.  Warmest years ever, followed by degrees above average:

2016    1.80
2020    1.76
2019    1.71
2015    1.67
2017    1.64
2018    1.49
2014    1.33
2010    1.30
2013    1.22
2005    1.21

 

 

And 1.37 for the first quarter of this year.  It hardly looks as if “the planet has a fever”

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23 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

And 1.37 for the first quarter of this year.  It hardly looks as if “the planet has a fever”

+1.37F average warming would make it warmer than most of the last two decades.  Warmer than the 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 averages.  See above.

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19 minutes ago, olofscience said:

It's a pity that the thread starter is too scared to actually discuss the paper he posted at the top of this thread, because it's actually quite interesting! Anyone else want to discuss it?

The Wijngaarden/Happer paper?  Yeah, I thought that was a good overview of radiative forcing, and it confirmed earlier work that quantified forcings due to increases in the various GHG's.

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41 minutes ago, billvon said:

The Wijngaarden/Happer paper?  Yeah, I thought that was a good overview of radiative forcing, and it confirmed earlier work that quantified forcings due to increases in the various GHG's.

His point of the diminishing greenhouse effect of CO2 seems to be borne out by observation.  CO2 at record levels, temperatures not.

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