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billvon

Welcome to the fourth wave

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We are now into the fourth wave of COVID infections.  From a low of 55,000 (7 day average) the US is now up to 67,000 new infections a day.  Led by states like Florida and Michigan, the new spike looks like it is due to people deciding the pandemic is over, and it's time to throw away the mask and give up on distancing.   Others are relying on vaccinations over NPI's, even though some vaccines are not very effective against new strains of COVID-19.

Needless to say this wave won't be as bad as the last one because vaccination totals are climbing (30% of the US has gotten at least one vaccination) and high risk people are being prioritized.  Still, we will see tens or hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths as the next wave takes its toll.  Even today we are at 1000 deaths a day - and within a week or so that will start to rise again as the disease progresses in infected people.

Within another three months we will have most of the US vaccinated, and it will be harder for all variants to spread.  Until then we have to rely on a combination of NPI's, vaccinations and acquired immunity to keep the at-risk people safe.  It's only three more months - we can do it.

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5 hours ago, billvon said:

Led by states like Florida and Michigan, the new spike looks like it is due to people deciding the pandemic is over

So...the pandemic isn't over?

  How does this age then:

On 3/13/2021 at 12:20 PM, brenthutch said:

Well I’m back from Florida and happy to report bars and restaurants were open and packed.  Disney required masks and capacity was reduced but so was the number of rides, so the lines were long and crowded.  Although masking was required, pretty much any face covering sufficed.  Folks were selling mask inserts that worked great, they held the mask away from my face so I could breathe normally and not fog up my sunglasses while still complying with the mandate. 

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This wave contains a rising percentage of the deadlier and more transmissible variants. There is discussion within the medical community to label them collectively the GOP variants. As they target the mask-less, jab-adverse segments of the population. Those who still believe its all a big hoax.

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2 hours ago, olofscience said:

So...the pandemic isn't over?

  How does this age then:

pretty much as expected, as far as i can tell.  anyway, it's over for me, as i have my first one, second next week.  i still mask up everywhere, but 80% chance of not getting it at all and 100% chance of not dying means i am done with it.  the va did something right this time.  but then again, i have never not gotten good care from them. 

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8 hours ago, billvon said:

...  It's only three more months - we can do it.

Can we?

And more importantly, WILL we?

I don't think so.

My faith in humanity, which was never all that strong to begin with, had been utterly devastated the past year.
Between the political crap and the pandemic, I've been disgusted and appalled at how many stupid, selfish, short-sighted, gullible fools there are out there.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court shut down the mask mandate in Wisconsin this week.
Of course, cases have been rising some for a week or so.
7 day new case averages are back above 500.
 

Fortunately, the vaccine situation keeps improving.
Anyone over 16 will be able to get it starting next week (move up from May). 

I'm going to try to get mine as soon as I can.

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6 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I'm going to try to get mine as soon as I can.

I got mine yesterday, the first day I was eligible.  

(It's worth noting that it takes about 5 days to get any level of immunity at all, and 2 weeks after the _second_ shot to get to full immunity.  So nothing changes for me for about a month.)

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5 hours ago, billvon said:

I got mine yesterday, the first day I was eligible.  

(It's worth noting that it takes about 5 days to get any level of immunity at all, and 2 weeks after the _second_ shot to get to full immunity.  So nothing changes for me for about a month.)

you get a 100% chance of not dying from the covid after two weeks, or so they say.  80% chance of not getting it.  those are pretty good odds, but if you say it's nothing, then it's nothing.

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6 hours ago, billvon said:

I got mine yesterday, the first day I was eligible.  

(It's worth noting that it takes about 5 days to get any level of immunity at all, and 2 weeks after the _second_ shot to get to full immunity.  So nothing changes for me for about a month.)

Negative. In two weeks you'll be at +/- 80% and unlikely to be hospitalized or suffer seriously if infected. 

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(edited)

"Germany's vaccine commission, known as STIKO, recommended on Thursday that people under 60-years old who have had a first shot of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine should receive a different product for their second dose....

In an updated recommendation on its website, STIKO said there was no scientific evidence on the safety of a mixed series of vaccines.

"Until the appropriate data is available, STIKO recommends for people under 60 years old that instead of the second AstraZeneca dose, a dose of an mRNA-vaccine should be given 12 weeks after the first vaccine," STIKO said."

“Think of vaccination as presenting our immune system with a red flag—here is something you should be on the lookout for,” he says. “And so if you go with the mRNA vaccine first, you’re going to activate one branch of our immune system.” (We have three different branches.) Bernstein suggests thinking of this first vaccine as our “air force.” Then, he says, you introduce one of the viral vector vaccines, such as the ones by AstraZeneca/Oxford or Johnson & Johnson/Janssen a couple of weeks later, and, it tells the immune system: “ ‘You saw this guy before, but I’m going to present him in a different format,’ ” says Bernstein. “And so it’s going to activate a different branch of our immune system, think of it as our navy. And so now you have the air force and the navy activated and so you’ve got a double threat against this incoming virus.”

Edited by Phil1111

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37 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

“Think of vaccination as presenting our immune system with a red flag—here is something you should be on the lookout for,” he says. “And so if you go with the mRNA vaccine first, you’re going to activate one branch of our immune system.” (We have three different branches.) Bernstein suggests thinking of this first vaccine as our “air force.” 

That's so oversimplified it's hard to tell what he's talking about.

We have two primary layers to the immune system - the innate and adaptive.  The innate is the simpler one; our skin (which is mostly impervious to viruses and bacteria) is one example.  Coughing and sneezing are another.  There are also specialized cells that reject foreign invaders like macrophages, neutrophils, mast cells and the like.  These attack ANY cells that look foreign; there's no advantage to any sort of immunization there because they will attack pretty much anything.

The adaptive system is the one that you can train via vaccinations.  Infected cells present antigens (components of the virus) and B cells recognize these antigens.  These generate memory B cells that "remember" the antigen - and if that antigen reappears it triggers an immediate response by T cells.  That's how all vaccines work.  Memory B cells can live for years (even decades) and thus provide long lasting immunity.

Rarely we have a third kind of immunity - passive.  This is where we get antibodies from another source.  Infants, for example, can get antibodies from mother's milk, so if the mother recently had a disease their milk provides some protection for infants.  But there's no way he's talking about that.

This is a pretty accomplished researcher so I'm pretty sure he didn't get that wrong.  I wonder what he meant?

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8 hours ago, billvon said:

That's so oversimplified it's hard to tell what he's talking about....

This is a pretty accomplished researcher so I'm pretty sure he didn't get that wrong.  I wonder what he meant?

My interest was piqued when Germany made its announcement Thursday about the mix and match concept. Germany has the most robust medical research programs in Europe.Since both Moderna and Pfizer target the covid spikes. I can see the overall thinking behind those two being interchanged. Obviously the body doesn't know. The UK "Comparing COVID-19 Vaccine Schedule Combinations – Com-COV" is just starting.

For certain there will be new variants by the time populous poorer countries are fully vaccinated.

I received a vaccination yesterday am. Presumably Pfizer but I have my doubts. A tiny pinprick when the needle entered, then nothing. I'm thinking its a placebo, likely saline for some unknown further "deep state" study. I'm hoping for a headache, muscle aches, something!

Or it could be like I told the nurse when she asked me If I had covid before. "I've never been tested.  If i was asymptomatic how would I know?

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9 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

I received a vaccination yesterday am. Presumably Pfizer but I have my doubts. A tiny pinprick when the needle entered, then nothing. I'm thinking its a placebo, likely saline for some unknown further "deep state" study. I'm hoping for a headache, muscle aches, something!

I got nothing but a little muscle ache on days 2 and 3.

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It seems as if the luciferian deep state is still alive within the evangelical community. First trump and now:

"Across white evangelical America, reasons not to get vaccinated have spread quickly.

The deeply held spiritual convictions or counterfactual arguments may vary, but the opposition is rooted in a mix of religious faith and a longstanding wariness of mainstream science, and it is fueled by broader cultural distrust of institutions and gravitation to online conspiracy theories.

The sheer size of the community poses a major problem for the country’s ability to recover from a pandemic that has resulted in the deaths of half a million Americans.

There are about 41 million white evangelical adults in the United States. About 45 percent said in late February that they would not get vaccinated against Covid-19, making them among the least likely demographic groups to do so, according to the Pew Research Center."

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(edited)
On 4/1/2021 at 6:02 PM, billvon said:

 the new spike looks like it is due to people deciding the pandemic is over, and it's time to throw away the mask and give up on distancing.

People decided that on the downslope of the 2nd wave. No one has given a crap about Covid in months. Florida dident give a shit from the beginning, so this is nothing new from them.

The pandemic IS over. Covid is now endemic. There is no point where Covid will ever go away.

Edited by Westerly

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On 4/3/2021 at 2:34 AM, JoeWeber said:

Negative. In two weeks you'll be at +/- 80% and unlikely to be hospitalized or suffer seriously if infected. 

Right, but Bill is a nice person who cares about people other than himself. So if it’s still possible for him to be infected and infect other people nothing is going to change in his behaviour - even if he personally is not a risk of dying.

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On 4/2/2021 at 4:10 PM, sfzombie13 said:

you get a 100% chance of not dying from the covid after two weeks, or so they say.  80% chance of not getting it.  those are pretty good odds, but if you say it's nothing, then it's nothing.

Nothing changes for me.  Still not going to bars, movie theaters or indoor restaurants..  Still wearing a mask. Still not traveling.

In three weeks?  We'll see.  If infections keep trending down here then I may start visiting my brewery again.

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7 minutes ago, billvon said:

Nothing changes for me.  Still not going to bars, movie theaters or indoor restaurants..  Still wearing a mask. Still not traveling.

In three weeks?  We'll see.  If infections keep trending down here then I may start visiting my brewery again.

Bingo.

I'm scheduled to get stabbed on Sunday.

Apparently going to be the J&J, so only the one time.

Allow the two weeks or so for my immune system to build up the immunity.
And even then, still take precautions. 

I have an 83 year old mom, who has a ton of health issues.
I do a lot to take care of her.
For reasons she won't go into, she doesn't want to get vaccinated. I disagree and have tried to convince her otherwise, but she has her mind made up.

So, even after I'm reasonably safe, I'm going to keep taking precautions.
At least until the numbers drop significantly.

Wisconsin topped 1k new infections yesterday. 7 day average is above 700. 
We're a long way from done with this.

On the plus side, vaccines are going very well. New places opening up, appointment availability is way up.
We have a good chance of beating this, but we're not there yet.

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2 hours ago, billvon said:

Nothing changes for me.  Still not going to bars, movie theaters or indoor restaurants..  Still wearing a mask. Still not traveling.

In three weeks?  We'll see.  If infections keep trending down here then I may start visiting my brewery again.

Are you skydiving?

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