Solar saving neighborhoods money

[brenthutch 383]

42 minutes ago, kallend said:

Didn't they teach you that time is  money when you got your MBA, and PhD in engineering.  Coal in 300 million years means we have to wait a long time..

 

That argument did cross my mind however I abandoned it because we currently utilize much of the plant matter that would have the potential to become fossil fuel in the future.  I didn’t consider the time value as it was a moot point in my analysis but give you full marks for your observation.

BTW I am still waiting for Phil1111 to explain how Germany which is dependent on importing more than 70% of its energy needs is ahead of the US with regard to energy independence.

Edited February 16, 2021 by brenthutch

[billeisele 122]

18 hours ago, billvon said:

Yep.  2016-2020 is the term that "fact" became a four letter word for republicans.

Residential solar is solving the problem of too much A/C load on hot days, since solar production and A/C usage are fairly in-phase.  The next problem is going to be the duck-curve problem, where traditional power demand (load - residential solar) ramps quickly around 5pm.  For that problem we have distributed storage, which is already making inroads in residential applications.

"Utilities have to build and upgrade power lines, transformers and other grid equipment to ensure they can support those peak loads, even when they may only arise for a few hours of the day during the hottest months of the year. DERs that can reliably shift loads in those hours could defer “wires” upgrades for years, or perhaps indefinitely, which is why they’re often called “non-wires alternatives,” or NWAs."

https://www-greentechmedia-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.greentechmedia.com/amp/article/californias-plan-to-crowdsource-distributed-energy-to-replace-grid-upgrades?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=16125695994448&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.greentechmedia.com%2Farticles%2Fread%2Fcalifornias-plan-to-crowdsource-distributed-energy-to-replace-grid-upgrades

lol - the first sentence is BS, some call it reality, but regardless

We're not seeing any movement towards these ultra expensive residential options. Is this happening in CA?

The good ole duck curve has been around for years. It's actually become more complicated with solar. We're seeing rapid generation swings with moving cloud cover. The HVAC loads don't shift nearly as fast, if at all. Fairly simple - cloud comes over a solar farm, output drops to less then 20%, conventional generation is ramped up to serve load, cloud cover moves on, solar output rises, and generation is decreased to match load. All day, every day. The work load is up and equipment is exercised much more often.

This issue is not much of a problem with residential solar because we don't have much and it's not as dense, as in your area, so a few large clouds don't cause much of a problem. An overcast day is equally not a problem because the solar isn't ramping up and down, it's just down. HVAC loads are down some but we have high humidity so the HVAC still runs just not quite as much. Solar owners sure like the grid on those days, you know, the one they don't pay for when they are using solar. That is our biggest problem but it's just a regulatory one, not a technical one. Luckily there is a lot of movement to fix that by eliminating the cost subsidy.

It would seem that an easy (to understand) first step would be water heating. Solar thermal works. But we rarely see that. Electric water heaters and HVAC are the two largest residential contributors toward the peak. The summation of lighting, refrigeration and cooking add some but not as much as either of the other two. When utilities do load studies it's amazing how much specific data is collected with sophisticated metering installed on hundreds of residences. 

The biggest peaks we see are mornings like today. After a holiday weekend, and 4 consecutive days of cold wet weather, the mid tier manufacturing companies that run one or two shifts 5 days a weeks, and the retail operations are starting back up this morning. Everything is cold and the heaters are on full blast. Luckily we have a good supply of NG and plenty of users so that does a sizeable part of the work. But still, these are the ultra peaks and they are short duration. This is where the interconnected grid comes into play. Neighboring utilities help balance the load. Oddly/sadly enough, to our north where distribution lines are down from ice, the residential and small commercial load is non-existent, but the transmission system is working so we can buy generation fairly cheap. Solar is worthless until the sun gets up higher, a few hours from now, basically after the conventional systems have done the heavy lifting.

There is a lot of thought that solving the grid problem requires remaking the grid. Not in our lifetime nationally and huge money. Point source generation and smaller regional grids make sense if they can get the generation to an economical level. Small modular reactors are a potential option. If the Navy can do it why can't the commercial world do it. The big advantages a military ship or submarine has is an unlimited cooling source, cheap labor and no P&L statement. If the cooling issue can be solved the rest is a social problem. 

One day Cow Power (Vermont) is good and the next day it's not. Incentives are provided one day and then penalties on methane are suggested. Is recycling a cow through the human gut a parallel to a dead tree off gassing it's carbon? We should have a study on this.

And on we go. Technology, innovation, funding, environmental policies, and politics are all in the mix. What fun.

Edited February 16, 2021 by billeisele
spelling

[gowlerk 1,911]

1 hour ago, billeisele said:

And on we go. Technology, innovation, funding, environmental policies, and politics are all in the mix. What fun.

What we need is for the genius tech world to turn away from pie in the sky endeavors like working toward manned Mars expeditions and focus on finding effective energy storage. In the end storage is the only real answer that will satisfy all of the competing interests you list here.

[brenthutch 383]

10 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

What we need is for the genius tech world to turn away from pie in the sky endeavors like working toward manned Mars expeditions and focus on finding effective energy storage. In the end storage is the only real answer that will satisfy all of the competing interests you list here.

We will have a man (or woman) on Mars long before we have enough energy storage to get off of fossil fuels.  The pie in the sky is large scale energy storage, not humans on Mars.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

53 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

What we need is for the genius tech world to turn away from pie in the sky endeavors like working toward manned Mars expeditions and focus on finding effective energy storage. In the end storage is the only real answer that will satisfy all of the competing interests you list here.

We're moving towards effective energy storage. Probably faster than most of us realize.

For example, the battery in my car is now 7 years old. With overnight temps going below zero (F) every night for the last week and a half, it has struggled to start a couple times. So yesterday I went and bought a jump pack. A battery I can carry with me to jump the car if needed. 20 amp/hours, peak output of 300 amps. It won't take me from 'totally dead' to started, but if I'm right on the edge of getting started, it will 'put me over the top'. 
It's the size of an average smart phone. $60 (USD). 

The ones I'm used to are the size of a Playmate lunch cooler. They still make those, and some have enough power to start a fairly large truck. Those can be a couple hundred bucks. But there are 'phone sized' ones that will start a diesel pickup truck. 

We have a ways to go before we'll be able to store enough to, say, make up for the solar loss when the sun goes down, but we are definitely moving in that direction. 

[billvon 2,396]

4 hours ago, billeisele said:

lol - the first sentence is BS, some call it reality, but regardless

Read any Facebook post from a Trump supporter and check out their attitude towards "fact checking."  Also remember who termed the phrase "alternative facts."

Quote

We're not seeing any movement towards these ultra expensive residential options. Is this happening in CA?

Countrywide we're installing ~100 megawatt-hours a quarter of residential storage.  Given an average storage size of about 10kwhr, that's 40K new installations a year - and that has been roughly tripling every year.  Hawaii and California are the largest markets for now.  I have a feeling after this week we will see an upswing in Texas.

 

[kallend 1,623]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

We will have a man (or woman) on Mars long before we have enough energy storage to get off of fossil fuels.  The pie in the sky is large scale energy storage, not humans on Mars.

In 1958 it was confidently predicted that we'd have fusion power before humans on the Moon.

[brenthutch 383]

13 minutes ago, kallend said:

In 1958 it was confidently predicted that we'd have fusion power before humans on the Moon.

Sounds like the same folks predicting renewables will replace fossil fuels before we land a human on Mars.

[gowlerk 1,911]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

In 1958 it was confidently predicted that we'd have fusion power before humans on the Moon.

It is possible to put a person on Mars right now. But only as a one way trip. Energy storage on Earth is an engineering challenge that will be met long before any extra-terrestrial settlement.

[Westerly 61]

7 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

20 amp/hours, peak output of 300 amps. It won't take me from 'totally dead' to started, but if I'm right on the edge of getting started, it will 'put me over the top'. 
It's the size of an average smart phone. $60 (USD). 

 

You should probably know a lot of those ratings are complete bullshit. Like, go on eBay and search for any battery for anything and there is a good chance the specifications are complete horse crap.

My favorite are cell phone batteries which advertise double the capacity of OEM batteries. So Apple who invests millions in battery tech cant increase their storage density but some guy on eBay can sell you a battery with double the capacity for $15? Riiiight.....

Edited February 16, 2021 by Westerly

[ryoder 1,382]

5 hours ago, billvon said:

Read any Facebook post from a Trump supporter and check out their attitude towards "fact checking."  Also remember who termed the phrase "alternative facts."

Countrywide we're installing ~100 megawatt-hours a quarter of residential storage.  Given an average storage size of about 10kwhr, that's 40K new installations a year - and that has been roughly tripling every year.  Hawaii and California are the largest markets for now.  I have a feeling after this week we will see an upswing in Texas.

 

Here is a 2011 article explaining the TX power grid:

https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

9 minutes ago, Westerly said:

You should probably know a lot of those ratings are complete bullshit. Like, go on eBay and search for any battery for anything and there is a good chance the specifications are complete horse crap.

My favorite are cell phone batteries which advertise double the capacity of OEM batteries. So Apple who invests millions in battery tech cant increase their storage density but some guy on eBay can sell you a battery with double the capacity for $15? Riiiight.....

Compare what batteries can do today (actually do) vs what they could do, say, 10 years ago. 
Then compare to 20 or 30 years ago.

The tech is advancing. 
And continues to do so.

 

[billvon 2,396]

5 hours ago, kallend said:

In 1958 it was confidently predicted that we'd have fusion power before humans on the Moon.

Yep.  And in 1954, Lewis Strauss, chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission said that "it is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter."  

Of course, he later followed up, clarifying that "in 10 to 15 years" we would have fusion power "too cheap to be metered, just as we have water today that's too cheap to be metered."

[Westerly 61]

18 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Compare what batteries can do today (actually do) vs what they could do, say, 10 years ago. 
Then compare to 20 or 30 years ago.

The tech is advancing. 
And continues to do so.

 

Sure, no problem. The answer is batteries haven't changed much. Look at the iPhone series which is the best selling phone in human history. The very first gen iPhone made in 2007 had a 5.2 w/hr battery. In 2017 the iPhone 8 came out and 10 years latter managed only a 6.9 w/hr battery AND that battery was physically larger than the one in the original iPhone so it's not even a direct comparison. 

So no, battery tech has not improved that much. The lead acid battery that starts your car today is the same tech used in the 60s, just refined a bit for improved reliability, but the same basic technology.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Westerly

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Comparing same to same gets you...

The same. 

Compare the lead acid battery (which has been around for over a century) to AGM or Gel batteries. 

Look at the capacity and "C" rating increases in Li-Po batteries, especially the ones in R/C stuff. 

[billvon 2,396]

48 minutes ago, Westerly said:

Sure, no problem. The answer is batteries haven't changed much.

Wow!!!!!  Do you think parachutes haven't changed much since the 1980's, too?  After all they are still just nylon and lines.

The first li-ion battery I used in a commercial design in 1998 was an 18650 form factor that was 1.3 amp hours.  At a 1 amp discharge it measured 1 amp-hour and cost about $10 a cell.  It couldn't do more than about 2 amps without overheating.  They spec'd 200 cycles to 70% capacity.

We are using a similar form factor today in a UAV.  3 amp hours.  When I pull 10 amps from it, I measure . . . 3 amp hours.  It will do 30 amps for ten seconds or so.  It costs $2 and will last about 500 cycles at >80% capacity.

So: 

5x cheaper
2.5x longer life, with more capacity at the end of life
3x capacity
15x power handling

I would call those things pretty big changes - akin to the evolution from the Cruislite to a modern Velocity.  Even though at a fundamental level they are the same basic designs.

[gowlerk 1,911]

7 minutes ago, billvon said:

I would call those things pretty big changes - akin to the evolution from the Cruislite to a modern Velocity.  Even though at a fundamental level they are the same basic designs.

Batteries have come a long way, yet still seem so limited. Is a fundamental breakthrough needed to get to where we need to be to make large scale storage truly feasible? I don't know if it is even physically possible, it is one of the biggest problems we have no solution to yet. We have no shortage of energy to replace fossil fuels but we have no real answer to the storage problem. Even though some of the greatests minds have been working on it.

[billvon 2,396]

5 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Batteries have come a long way, yet still seem so limited. Is a fundamental breakthrough needed to get to where we need to be to make large scale storage truly feasible?

I don't think so.  A 250lb, $5500 battery will run an efficient house for a day, will run a very efficient house for two days, and will run it forever with a solar power system attached.  That's already within the realm of middle to upper class people especially with incentives.  And that's today - prices have been declining about 20% a year since 2010.  And utilities are going to have hundred million dollar incentives to want to put those in people's houses rather than build new transmission lines.

At the other extreme, utilities are building gigawatt-hour storage facilities, and to do so they just order lots of shipping-container sized battery modules and stack them.  Again, they are already financially practical, and will only get more so as prices drop.

[kallend 1,623]

2 hours ago, Westerly said:

Sure, no problem. The answer is batteries haven't changed much. 

My R/C Eurofighter, Sukhoi 35 and Spitfire have batteries that weigh less than 1kg, and will output 140Amps at 22 volts, with a capacity of 6 Amp.hours.

Didn't exist 10 years ago.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

I don't think so.  A 250lb, $5500 battery will run an efficient house for a day, will run a very efficient house for two days, and will run it forever with a solar power system attached.  That's already within the realm of middle to upper class people especially with incentives.  And that's today - prices have been declining about 20% a year since 2010.  And utilities are going to have hundred million dollar incentives to want to put those in people's houses rather than build new transmission lines.

At the other extreme, utilities are building gigawatt-hour storage facilities, and to do so they just order lots of shipping-container sized battery modules and stack them.  Again, they are already financially practical, and will only get more so as prices drop.

How many watts is that battery?

[billvon 2,396]

18 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

How many watts is that battery?

Which one?  The big one?  .3 gigawatts, 1.2 gigawatt-hours right now.  To be expanded to 1.2 gigawatts, 6 gigawatt-hours.  That's about the size of a large nuclear power plant.

[gowlerk 1,911]

29 minutes ago, kallend said:

My R/C Eurofighter, Sukhoi 35 and Spitfire have batteries that weigh less than 1kg, and will output 140Amps at 22 volts, with a capacity of 6 Amp.hours.

LiPo batteries are scary dangerous though.

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

I don't think so.  A 250lb, $5500 battery will run an efficient house for a day, will run a very efficient house for two days, and will run it forever with a solar power system attached.  That's already within the realm of middle to upper class people especially with incentives.  And that's today - prices have been declining about 20% a year since 2010.  And utilities are going to have hundred million dollar incentives to want to put those in people's houses rather than build new transmission lines.

At the other extreme, utilities are building gigawatt-hour storage facilities, and to do so they just order lots of shipping-container sized battery modules and stack them.  Again, they are already financially practical, and will only get more so as prices drop.

They had better drop a lot if they have to be replaced every several years.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

36 minutes ago, billvon said:

Which one?  The big one?  .3 gigawatts, 1.2 gigawatt-hours right now.  To be expanded to 1.2 gigawatts, 6 gigawatt-hours.  That's about the size of a large nuclear power plant.

The 250# $5500 one.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

15 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

The 250# $5500 one.

Maybe I should have asked how much it cost.