Lefties and lockdowns

[brenthutch 383]

49 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Bill,

Re:   But I see no evidence of it.  I think it's more to do with kids that are driving their parents nuts.

I'm with you.  After all, parents have been home-schooling kids for decades.  I have not seen any real problems with it.

Jerry Baumchen

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/parenting/ct-life-student-wellness-remote-learning-online-school-20201023-g3tjimt5rjfp3hs2cntoc7jlsq-story.html
“The most recent prompt in Freeman’s classroom culture day was: “How are you adjusting to remote learning?”

“The responses that I got were absolutely heartbreaking,” said Freeman. “That was when I learned that my students are struggling.”

Her high school students reported battles with depression, anxiety and myriad physical ailments from sitting in front of a computer screen all day, like joint pain, headaches and vision impairment.”

Home schooling is not the same as remote learning.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

From what I have read and found, covid related restrictions in Canada are increasing mental health concerns and complaints among school aged children. Preliminary suicide statistics for 2020 in Canada are showing a decline from 2019.

All in all, likely too early to make definitive statements on the impact of covid related restrictions.

Of course, without covid restrictions children could easily infect elderly family members causing their death. That too would have an impact on mental health.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

43 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Home schooling is not the same as remote learning.

No one should be arguing with you over this point. 

[tonyhays 86]

I'm surprised no one's brought up Florida's manipulated covid-19 numbers yet.

https://www.salon.com/2020/12/16/desantis-faces-renewed-scrutiny-following-discovery-of-mysterious-gap-in-floridas-covid-death-tally/

[sfzombie13 307]

52 minutes ago, tonyhays said:

I'm surprised no one's brought up Florida's manipulated covid-19 numbers yet.

https://www.salon.com/2020/12/16/desantis-faces-renewed-scrutiny-following-discovery-of-mysterious-gap-in-floridas-covid-death-tally/

none of the numbers are real any more and haven't been since they started slowing down and stopping the testing months ago.  no way to tell anything yet with the way the last admin screwed the pooch.

[nwt 131]

33 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

none of the numbers are real any more and haven't been since they started slowing down and stopping the testing months ago.  no way to tell anything yet with the way the last admin screwed the pooch.

That doesn't seem to be supported by the data

[sfzombie13 307]

what data?  without knowing with 100% accuracy how many people have had covid, the data is an estimate.  some estimates are closer than others, yet none of it is 100% accurate.  people claiming with absolute certainty just what happened or is happening while just taking these numbers, most of which have been knowingly doctored, as fact.  after it's all over, we may be able to extrapolate how many died of it, yet will never know for certain, other than it was pretty bad.

[wmw999 2,121]

There is very little that is ever completely accurate; if nothing else, just consider Heisenberg's cat

We go with the best data that we have when we have to; we gather or validate data until then to a degree that makes sense.

Wendy P.

[nwt 131]

9 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

what data?  without knowing with 100% accuracy how many people have had covid, the data is an estimate.  some estimates are closer than others, yet none of it is 100% accurate.  people claiming with absolute certainty just what happened or is happening while just taking these numbers, most of which have been knowingly doctored, as fact.  after it's all over, we may be able to extrapolate how many died of it, yet will never know for certain, other than it was pretty bad.

The data I attached to my post.

I don't know why you're claiming "most of which have been knowingly doctored". Do you have a reference for that?

The overall death numbers are pretty credible because you can cross-check against excess deaths.

[kallend 1,623]

2 hours ago, nwt said:

 

The overall death numbers are pretty credible because you can cross-check against excess deaths.

And...

(CNN)Life expectancy in the US dropped a full year in the first half of 2020, according to a report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. Experts say that Covid-19 was a significant factor contributing to the decline.

The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows.

[headoverheels 291]

On 2/16/2021 at 3:47 PM, brenthutch said:

 And it is California NOT Florida that is the COVID death capital of the United States.

California is 33rd in per capita deaths.  Behind Florida, behind Ohio, behind Michigan, behind 29 others.

[sfzombie13 307]

5 hours ago, nwt said:

The data I attached to my post.

I don't know why you're claiming "most of which have been knowingly doctored". Do you have a reference for that?

The overall death numbers are pretty credible because you can cross-check against excess deaths.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-stops-medical-examiners-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-report-1501090

it was all over the news just a few months ago, surprised you didn't read any of it.  it seems like it is being hidden now due to incorrect search terms or it may have not actually happened, but i recall very heated discussions over the fact (at the time) that trump et al stopped counting positive covid cases, and did everything imaginable to stop testing.  as you may or may not know, the death rate for covid was supposedly around 1.6%, but without having a valid bottom number of overall infected, or a valid top number of the actual deaths, the ratio that results is incorrect.  i think i stated that we could only tell later, when looking at the numbers, how many actually died, most likely paraphrased though.  hell, i'm sure you could go back and look at some of these threads and find whatever you want, i am working on other things though. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by sfzombie13
ratio was wrong

[Phil1111 910]

5 hours ago, nwt said:

The data I attached to my post.

I don't know why you're claiming "most of which have been knowingly doctored". Do you have a reference for that?

The overall death numbers are pretty credible because you can cross-check against excess deaths.

Agree, you are right on target on many of your posts.

[nwt 131]

3 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-stops-medical-examiners-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-report-1501090

This doesn't support your position that "most" data has been "knowingly doctored". Like I said, you can cross check COVID deaths against excess deaths, and overall it checks out pretty well.

3 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

but i recall very heated discussions over the fact (at the time) that trump et al stopped counting positive covid cases, and did everything imaginable to stop testing. 

So what? Testing didn't stop and neither has counting of cases. I posted data on tests per day in the very post you are replying to.

4 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

the death rate for covid was supposedly around 1.6%, but without having a valid bottom number of overall infected, or a valid top number of the actual deaths, the ratio that results is incorrect.

This is true and completely uncontroversial--please explain what point you're trying to make. 

4 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

i think i stated that we could only tell later, when looking at the numbers, how many actually died, most likely paraphrased though.

 

4 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

or a valid top number of the actual deaths

The death count is valid. Again, I refer back to the very post you are replying to, where I tell you the death toll can be cross checked against excess deaths.

[sfzombie13 307]

29 minutes ago, nwt said:

This doesn't support your position that "most" data has been "knowingly doctored". Like I said, you can cross check COVID deaths against excess deaths, and overall it checks out pretty well.

So what? Testing didn't stop and neither has counting of cases. I posted data on tests per day in the very post you are replying to.

This is true and completely uncontroversial--please explain what point you're trying to make. 

 

The death count is valid. Again, I refer back to the very post you are replying to, where I tell you the death toll can be cross checked against excess deaths.

the point is that i found a page full of links in a three second search supporting that the numbers have been doctored, meaning they are not reported accurately.  a thorough search would most likely reveal that to be true, but i have given it enough of my time.  i recall seeing numbers last year that were very much not in line with the reported deaths, and that it even made a few news stories, but was eclipsed by trump's antics, almost as if he planned it (he's not that smart but there are others who are near him who may be).  i also recall the cdc changing their recommendations due to political pressure.  all sorts of things have come to light about how badly they were falsifying the information, and i am not going to try to regurgitate them here.  i don't much care if you believe it or not, so if you want a source, look it up because i have filed the information away last year in my head.

let me clarify the point, just in case it was not obvious.  the previous administration did a pretty good job of falsifying any information regarding covid, so none of that information can be trusted without verifying the accuracy of it independently, and that is done after the fact as with comparing normal death rates and the ones we see now.  even then, you can't say for sure the new instances were all covid, as some were due to not being able to get treated for other things due to limited hospital availability and others were due to co-morbidity. 

i am not arguing that the data you use is not accurate, just that there is no way to independently verify it and it should be treated as an estimate, yet it is being treated as absolute truth.  it can be as accurate as any other, and could even be spot on, but there is no way to make that call yet.  it is most likely the closest thing we will ever have.

[nwt 131]

7 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

the point is that i found a page full of links in a three second search supporting that the numbers have been doctored, meaning they are not reported accurately

A plurality of anecdotes does not support your position that "most" data has been intentional doctored, or that the overall numbers are not reasonable accurate.

 

8 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

a thorough search would most likely reveal that to be true

No, you can't say that.

 

9 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

  i recall seeing numbers last year that were very much not in line with the reported deaths

I don't understand what you mean by this. What "numbers"?

 

12 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

all sorts of things have come to light about how badly they were falsifying the information

Again, a plurality of anecdotes does nothing to suggest "how badly" information is being falsified. Again, you can cross check the death count against excess deaths.

13 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

the previous administration did a pretty good job of falsifying any information regarding covid,

No, they didn't. The previous administration never had any influence over JHU data.

14 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

even then, you can't say for sure the new instances were all covid, as some were due to not being able to get treated for other things due to limited hospital availability and others were due to co-morbidity. 

Right, I would never say that. Excess deaths certainly include indirect deaths like you mention. That doesn't mean it isn't valuable as a cross check, and indirect deaths are relevant as part of the overall burden of this pandemic.

 

18 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

i am not arguing that the data you use is not accurate, just that there is no way to independently verify it and it should be treated as an estimate, yet it is being treated as absolute truth.

What? No. Nobody is treating the data as absolute truth... What is the basis for your claim that there is no way to independently verify? Why do you not consider JHU to be independent?

[billvon 2,396]

23 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

the point is that i found a page full of links in a three second search supporting that the numbers have been doctored, meaning they are not reported accurately. 

I can find a page full of links in a three second search supporting that vaccines cause autism.  The popularity of a theory is not proof of it.

Quote

i am not arguing that the data you use is not accurate, just that there is no way to independently verify it and it should be treated as an estimate, yet it is being treated as absolute truth. 

No one - I repeat no one - treats that number as absolute truth.  We know that some people who died in nursing homes were not tested for COVID due to scarcity of test kits.  This means that cases were undercounted.  We know that some people who were at death's door got COVID and died shortly afterwards.  They had COVID even though it was not the cause of death.  That means those cases were overcounted.

Everyone knows that we are using estimates.

[sfzombie13 307]

41 minutes ago, billvon said:

Everyone knows that we are using estimates.

out of all that, this is the one that i am refuting, because this is the point i was trying, very unsuccessfully i might add, to make.  no, everybody does not know that.  anyone who can argue over the difference between a 1.3% and a 1.9% fatality is not using the word estimate correctly.  i am not going to go find it, i saw it last month, and i believe it was in one of these very threads, i read way too much to find anything after that long.

52 minutes ago, nwt said:

A plurality of anecdotes does not support your position that "most" data has been intentional doctored, or that the overall numbers are not reasonable accurate.

 

No, you can't say that.

 

 

not only can i, i am saying it.  the same way i can say for sure that there was one incident of mishandled secret documents, that it was reported, and that i was blamed for it when i found them and did all the right things by handling them properly until i shredded them in the proper location.  the last administration broke so many rules it wasn't funny, and they were mostly so inept it left trails of evidence.  now, i'm not in any position to be involved with any of that, and if i were, i damned sure wouldn't be saying anything about it here.  what i am saying is that i have been on the inside of some government type things that were not as they appeared from the outside, and i wasn't even an operator, just listened when they talked, and trained with them in preparation of getting tabbed.  i've still got a few folks i can talk to about certain things, but am not gonna over this.  i could well be wrong and it could really be that they are just so inept it looks like it was done on purpose.  the more things that come out, the more it appears this is not the case however. 

[brenthutch 383]

“Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone said Thursday that “Florida is on fire” thanks to Gov. DeSantis’ ability to bring in new people and industries fleeing high-tax, COVID restrictive states like New York and California. 

“What this Governor in Florida has done is first class,” Langone said during an appearance on “Mornings With Maria.” “He knows how to run a state and he’s doing it well, he does it with humility and he does it with thoughtfulness.” 

Langone said that while speaking with DeSantis, the Florida Governor joked that he was thinking about sending a campaign contribution to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s campaign for helping to bring new business into Florida.”

[billvon 2,396]

17 minutes ago, sfzombie13 said:

out of all that, this is the one that i am refuting, because this is the point i was trying, very unsuccessfully i might add, to make.  no, everybody does not know that.  anyone who can argue over the difference between a 1.3% and a 1.9% fatality is not using the word estimate correctly.

Estimates are of varying accuracy.  Everyone also knows that.  An argument over how accurate an estimate is does not make it a non-estimate.

Quote

 the last administration broke so many rules it wasn't funny

Yes, Trump was bad.  He is gone.  Time to move on.

 

 

[kallend 1,623]

49 minutes ago, billvon said:

Estimates are of varying accuracy.  Everyone also knows that.  An argument over how accurate an estimate is does not make it a non-estimate.

 

 

 

Before I retired I taught "Intro to engineering" to 1st year engineering students.  One of the topics I covered was estimating.  They were not allowed to look anything up.

Some estimates I was happy if they got within a factor of 10 (how many liters of water in the Earth's oceans, how many electrons in your professor, how many fire hydrants in the city of Chicago.

 

For others I expected much higher accuracy (how big (volume) of helium balloon is needed to lift 1000kg, how high is a stack of $1 bills equal in value to the US national debt, assuming you could make one).

No Googling (or other lookups) allowed.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by kallend

[wmw999 2,121]

Or "how much is that car repair going to cost?"

Wendy P

[BIGUN 1,053]

4 hours ago, kallend said:

Before I retired I taught "Intro to engineering" to 1st year engineering students.  One of the topics I covered was estimating.  They were not allowed to look anything up.

I would estimate 30% of the class changed majors. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

19 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

I would estimate 30% of the class changed majors. 

Hi Keith,

I used to play volleyball with two guys who flunked out of engineering,  One became a dentist & the other a V-P at Jantzen.  Both made twice what I made.

Jerry Baumchen

[Phil1111 910]

14 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Keith,

I used to play volleyball with two guys who flunked out of engineering,  One became a dentist & the other a V-P at Jantzen.  Both made twice what I made.

Jerry Baumchen

Yeah but many people hate dentists and their suicide rate: Mental Illness and Suicide in Dental School: Fighting the Stigma