Lefties and lockdowns

[gowlerk 1,903]

The numbers are going down because the part of the population who will not be bothered to take precautions have had many of their number infected already. That  makes it harder for the virus to spread. 

[brenthutch 383]

10 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The numbers are going down because the part of the population who will not be bothered to take precautions have had many of their number infected already. That  makes it harder for the virus to spread. 

Yes you are correct, a person who gets COVID and recovers (99%) is effectively immunized.  That along with vaccinations is what develops Hurd immunity.  Masking and lockdowns only delay the inevitable.  Even the WHO doesn’t recommend lockdowns as the first line of defense.  

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

The mean, evil lefties in California did their stupid useless lockdown, and it worked, and now they are ending it and going back to the tier system!  Which must prove to the real smart independent thinker Trumpies that it didn't work after all.  Or something.  

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/25/960370453/california-lifts-stay-at-home-orders-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel

there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

”government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overallmortality”

”Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove
the lockdown”

”stay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact”

”these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictivesocial distancing measures … experience a very similar timeevolution of the epidemic.”

“We show that [lockdown] is modestly superior in saving lives compared to [focused protection], but with tremendous costs to prevent one case of death. This might result in overwhelming economic effects that are expected to increase future death toll”

”For example, the data…shows a decrease in infection rates after countries eased...lockdowns with >99% statistical significance. Indeed...infection rates have declined after reopening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.

This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.”

”Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended”
 

The Virus will run its course without regard to non pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns and masking)  With one out of three southern Californians testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies, it only makes sense that the cases would plateau.

[murps2000 86]

23 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

With one out of three southern Californians testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies, it only makes sense that the cases would plateau.

Where did you find this stat? I can’t find it. One out of three? Out of all of Southern California? I’d be surprised if one out of three even got tested for antibodies.

[brenthutch 383]

13 minutes ago, murps2000 said:

Where did you find this stat? I can’t find it. One out of three? Out of all of Southern California? I’d be surprised if one out of three even got tested for antibodies.

Sorry you are correct, the Dr. who made that claim extrapolated that number, using actual testing and an estimate of asymptotic and non reported cases.  Still, a mask and a shutdown doesn’t protect you it only postpones the inevitable.  The only way out is via   Herd immunity, either through vaccines or exposure.  

[Dr.SkyFall 28]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Sorry you are correct, the Dr. who made that claim extrapolated that number, using actual testing and an estimate of asymptotic and non reported cases.  Still, a mask and a shutdown doesn’t protect you it only postpones the inevitable.  The only way out is via   Herd immunity, either through vaccines or exposure.  

The point of masks and lockdowns is to avoid contracting Covid-19 until you can get the vaccine for immunity. thus avoiding the potential for fatality and developing list of long term effects from catching the virus. Many people have scars on their lungs from the virus, even if they were asymptomatic.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Dr.SkyFall

[billvon 2,391]

3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Not sure if it's 'light at the end of the tunnel', or just a lull.

Yep.  If, as we relax the lockdown a bit, the reaction is "WOOHOO!  Party!" then it will go right back up. 

Still, there are a lot of restaurants, gyms, nail places etc here that are barely hanging on.  I imagine they are not going to react well to seeing some unmasked people in their places of business risking another lockdown.

[murps2000 86]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Sorry you are correct, the Dr. who made that claim extrapolated that number, using actual testing and an estimate of asymptotic and non reported cases.  Still, a mask and a shutdown doesn’t protect you it only postpones the inevitable.  The only way out is via   Herd immunity, either through vaccines or exposure.  

I’m okay with postponement if it allows us to get more people vaccinated. If wearing a mask steers us in that direction I’m in. I’d rather achieve herd immunity that way. California seems to be lagging in getting vaccines out though. 

[jimjumper 25]

I'm sure that Newsome's decision to lift the lockdown had nothing to do with the "Recall Newsome" crowd getting close to the required number of signatures. They are at a million two hundred thousand and need a million five. Still over a month to get there!

Edited January 26, 2021 by jimjumper
Wrong number

[jakee 1,254]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Yes you are correct, a person who gets COVID and recovers (99%) is effectively immunized.   

Except for the people who’ve had it twice.

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

 That along with vaccinations is what develops Hurd immunity.  Masking and lockdowns only delay the inevitable.  

Delaying the inevitable is a very, very good thing. If you try and develop herd immunity through letting everyone become infected then huge numbers of people die and you risk overwhelming the medical infrastructure so even more people will die. If you suppress the spread until you achieve an effective vaccine rollout then far fewer people die.

Again I’ll point out that you called the left bloodthirsty when 1 person died, yet you are advocating for the deaths of hundreds of thousands.

[JoeWeber 2,297]

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Sorry you are correct, the Dr. who made that claim extrapolated that number, using actual testing and an estimate of asymptotic and non reported cases.  Still, a mask and a shutdown doesn’t protect you it only postpones the inevitable.  The only way out is via   Herd immunity, either through vaccines or exposure.  

FIFY

Sorry you are correct, the Dr. who made that claim extrapolated that number, using actual testing and an estimate of asymptotic and non reported cases. When I said one in three I had no clue if it was right or wrong I was just hoping no one who can count to 3 would notice and someone somewhere would get pissed off enough to wake up jakee and get him posting. Good catch!

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, jakee said:

Except for the people who’ve had it twice.

 

Only a handful out of a hundred million, more likely to be struck by lightning.

[JoeWeber 2,297]

6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Only a handful out of a hundred million, more likely to be struck by lightning.

If a handful equals 3 (that number again) you are right. If a handful is 4 then the odds are the same-per year.

[BIGUN 1,051]

10 hours ago, brenthutch said:

”Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove
the lockdown”

But in September 2020, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a highly regarded Brazilian research institute for public health, recommended that the city impose movement and business restrictions. Manaus was beginning to experience a second wave of the disease, it said. But the city did not impose one.

The Amazon's gateway city is struggling to battle the coronavirus

"We gave 13 alerts, and a very alarming one in mid-December, saying that the situation was getting very serious. Everyone was making fun of the studies and warnings, especially the President Jair Bolsonaro," says Jesem Orellana, researcher at Fiocruz.

Orellana adds that both the state and federal government used the theory of herd immunity to back up their relaxed measures. "They all talked about herd immunity, and an environment was created for this discourse to crystallize, and the measures to relax. That feeling may have been responsible for this relaxation of people's behavior."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/25/americas/brazil-manaus-covid-second-wave-intl/index.html

You know saying something louder and more forcefully doesn't make it right. Would you be willing to work in a COVID ward with no mask? 

[JoeWeber 2,297]

7 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

But in September 2020, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a highly regarded Brazilian research institute for public health, recommended that the city impose movement and business restrictions. Manaus was beginning to experience a second wave of the disease, it said. But the city did not impose one.

The Amazon's gateway city is struggling to battle the coronavirus

"We gave 13 alerts, and a very alarming one in mid-December, saying that the situation was getting very serious. Everyone was making fun of the studies and warnings, especially the President Jair Bolsonaro," says Jesem Orellana, researcher at Fiocruz.

Orellana adds that both the state and federal government used the theory of herd immunity to back up their relaxed measures. "They all talked about herd immunity, and an environment was created for this discourse to crystallize, and the measures to relax. That feeling may have been responsible for this relaxation of people's behavior."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/25/americas/brazil-manaus-covid-second-wave-intl/index.html

You know saying something louder and more forcefully doesn't make it right. Would you be willing to work in a COVID ward with no mask? 

Maybe heroes like Brent should start a movement to refuse the vaccine, no matter which group you are in, until all of the weaklings get immunized? Better, with social media they should all be able to gather together like at Woodstock and infect each other for the greater good. Of course, no going to the hospital like pathetic losers when you start choking. Surely the rule of 3's will tell us how many weeks it will take before the pandemic is over.

[gowlerk 1,903]

My personal plan is to delay my inevitable exposure to the virus until after I am vaccinated. I’m guessing those who bluster about “Hurd” immunity are mostly doing the same.

[DougH 270]

Even if we had unlimited health care resources it would still be exceptionally stupid to ignore precautions before we can get a good number folks vaccinated.

Herd immunity through lax prevention measures and actual infections is a good way to play mutation bingo. We have been pretty lucky that the variants that have come about have only been more infectious without much additional increase virulence, though I am hearing that the UK strain may be more virulent but I haven't looked beyond the sound bite.

Every new infection is a potential chance for the virus to mutate into something much more more deadly

Play stupid games win stupid prizes. Would really suck to have it mutate into something that starts killing significantly more people, and it isn't out of the realm of possibilities. 

[JoeWeber 2,297]

3 minutes ago, DougH said:

Even if we had unlimited health care resources it would still be exceptionally stupid to ignore precautions before we can get a good number folks vaccinated.

Herd immunity through lax prevention measures and actual infections is a good way to play mutation bingo. We have been pretty lucky that the variants that have come about have only been more infectious without much additional increase virulence, though I am hearing that the UK strain may be more virulent but I haven't looked beyond the sound bite.

Every new infection is a potential chance for the virus to mutate into something much more more deadly

Play stupid games win stupid prizes. Would really suck to have it mutate into something that starts killing significantly more people, and it isn't out of the realm of possibilities. 

What Brent and the rest of the herd immunity heroes miss is that people without covid will be denied a hospital bed because no one will choose to stay home and choke to death for the greater good. 

[jakee 1,254]

16 hours ago, brenthutch said:

there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

”government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overallmortality”

”Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove
the lockdown”

”stay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact”

”these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictivesocial distancing measures … experience a very similar timeevolution of the epidemic.”

“We show that [lockdown] is modestly superior in saving lives compared to [focused protection], but with tremendous costs to prevent one case of death. This might result in overwhelming economic effects that are expected to increase future death toll”

”For example, the data…shows a decrease in infection rates after countries eased...lockdowns with >99% statistical significance. Indeed...infection rates have declined after reopening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.

This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.”

”Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended”

You know what Brent, whenever I see someone post all this stuff without attribution I wonder what it is that they're trying to hide. In this case Brent, it was pretty easy to find out what you were trying to hide. You were trying to hide the fact that this paper was published in April - fucking April - by a man whose conclusion was "It turns out that the peak of the virus’ spread has been behind us for about two weeks now, and will probably fade within two more weeks."

Does that sound right to you, Brent? Was the peak of Coronavirus spread behind us in April and did it fade away two weeks after that? In other words do you think the paper's author was correct or was he terribly, terribly wrong?

 

And while you ponder that, I have a second off topic question. I can get why you want this persona of yours to be edgy and snarky, but why do you want it to be so weaselly and dishonest?

[billvon 2,391]

30 minutes ago, jakee said:

Does that sound right to you, Brent? Was the peak of Coronavirus spread behind us in April and did it fade away two weeks after that? In other words do you think the paper's author was correct or was he terribly, terribly wrong?

Reminds me of a scene from one of my favorite movies:
===================

Wanda: I'm setting up a guy who's important to us, who'll tell me where the loot is and if you'll be arrested, and you come loping in like Rambo and you dangle him out a fifth-floor window!  Now, was that smart? Was it shrewd? Was it good tactics? Or was it stupid?

Otto: Don't call me stupid.

================

[DougH 270]

22 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

What Brent and the rest of the herd immunity heroes miss is that people without covid will be denied a hospital bed because no one will choose to stay home and choke to death for the greater good. 

Absolutely agreed, but even if we had completely elastic unlimited supply of high quality health care it still would still result in a unnecessary loss of life. But as you correctly pointed out we don't have unlimited health care, and it will cause instances where people are denied care because there is no room.

Edited January 27, 2021 by DougH

[brenthutch 383]

On 1/24/2021 at 10:13 AM, sfzombie13 said:

because, unlike most of the gop, i actually listen to what people say, how they say it (body language), and research their past to make sure i am making an informed decision.  joe was the worst of the candidates the dems threw up, based on my own evaluations of the others.  i would have went with mayor pete or warren. 

 

how could you think dear leader kompromat was capable of leading a parade of ants, let alone a country?  the racism is strong in you, good thing it's not illegal.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj8s4u828TuAhUKMVkFHZzHDw8QwqsBMAF6BAgFEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fawakenwithjp%2Fvideos%2Fhow-to-be-a-woke-white-person%2F338802160459971%2F&usg=AOvVaw0i1fVw0vSIO_r381kv6bDT
 

 

[mistercwood 287]

I'm trying to think of a more boomery way you could have posted this complete non sequitur and I'm honestly coming up blank. I'm genuinely impressed.

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, mistercwood said:

I'm trying to think of a more boomery way you could have posted this complete non sequitur and I'm honestly coming up blank. I'm genuinely impressed.

Non sequitur?  It was in response to sfzombie’s personal attack.

[JoeWeber 2,297]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Non sequitur?  It was in response to sfzombie’s personal attack.

Personal attack? Nonsense. Please don't become one of those types.