Lefties and lockdowns

[mistercwood 287]

12 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Science should inform one’s behavior, not fear.

https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-comorbidities-are-the-elephant-in-the-room-7d185bd6cfe2

That entire article is premised on a fundamental misunderstanding of:

• How comorbidities are different to pre-existing conditions
• That there are not just two binary outcomes from a Covid infection - dead or 100% a-ok

There's probably other flaws but those are the two most glaring ones.

I look forward to the day you provide a source for your positions that doesn't completely fail to do what you think it does.

 

EDIT: You know what, this is actually completely fucking ridiculous. We're a year into this thing and we still have people basing their risk factors on pretending that you're only capable of transmitting this thing if you're sick. 

It's not just about you.

Edited January 19, 2021 by mistercwood

[brenthutch 383]

10 minutes ago, mistercwood said:

That entire article is premised on a fundamental misunderstanding of:

• How comorbidities are different to pre-existing conditions

What is the difference?  Not being jerky, just want to know.

[gowlerk 1,912]

24 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

jakee is right. What irritates you is not relevant to his point. 

That is why I agreed with him. Your mileage also may vary.

[mistercwood 287]

23 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

What is the difference?  Not being jerky, just want to know.

For the purposes of their calculations, they're using two sets of data and referring to them both as comorbidities, when realistically only one is and the other would be more accurately called pre-existing conditions (in lay terms).

For Covid comorbidities, they're using the WILDLY misinterpreted data that "only" 6% of Covid fatalities didn't have other issues - this has been debunked/clarified endlessly but still keeps doing the rounds. The problem here is that firstly, there is no consistent reporting method - doc's write down what they want to on the COD. If you're perfectly healthy, get Covid, end up in the ICU and the develop ARDS and Pneumonia before you die, it is valid and common for all of those to be listed on your death certificate, even if none of the rest would have happened without Covid.

The authors are then comparing those stats against CDC data for general risk factors in the population for conditions like Obesity and Diabetes, then making formulas that gloss over the fundamental difference between this data set and the Covid fatality set.

The first thing they build their conclusion from is the CDC Covid fatality data, without understanding where that data comes from. It's not a reliable model.

 

[JoeWeber 2,299]

36 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

That is why I agreed with him. Your mileage also may vary.

You don't know raccoons, I guess. They don't form social groups. Ron, of course, is a product of his. YMMV.

[gowlerk 1,912]

15 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

You don't know raccoons, I guess. They don't form social groups. Ron, of course, is a product of his. YMMV.

Do you remember Ron's "raccoon" post?

 

[JoeWeber 2,299]

6 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Do you remember Ron's "raccoon" post?

 

Sorry, no. 

[gowlerk 1,912]

4 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Sorry, no. 

It's a classic.

https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/264331-spending-time-with-jebus/?tab=comments#comment-4577000

[JoeWeber 2,299]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

It's a classic.

https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/264331-spending-time-with-jebus/?tab=comments#comment-4577000

Thank you. I'll withhold comment as I'm without space in my demerit box.

[billvon 2,400]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

It's a classic.

https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/264331-spending-time-with-jebus/?tab=comments#comment-4577000

Funny how basically no post from Trump or a Trump supporter ages well.

Trump Jr in 2016: "Dear Clintons: You know what's deplorable?  Being impeached!!!!"

Trump in 2014: "We need a president who isn't a laughing stock to the entire world."

Trump in 2015: "All the national security leaks coming from @BarackObama's @whitehouse were clearly made for political gain. Where's the outrage!?"

Trump in 2018: "Anarchists, Agitators or Protestors who vandalize or damage . . .any Federal Buildings in any of our Cities or States, will be prosecuted under our recently re-enacted Statues & Monuments Act. MINIMUM TEN YEARS IN PRISON!"

(I am sure people will have a dozen others)

[Westerly 61]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Science should inform one’s behavior, not fear.

https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-comorbidities-are-the-elephant-in-the-room-7d185bd6cfe2

Yep and that exact link also demonstrates what everyone already knows. That is two points:

-The vast majority of those who die from Covid are over 60.

-The vast majority of those over 60 have a preexisting condition. (75%, increasing to 85% at age 80).

-Ultimately, nearly 1 in 2 Americans have a preexisting condition, so it's less 'covid only kills those with a preexisting condition' and more 'most people, especially older people have a preexisting condition regardless'.

Correlational and causation are not the same thing. All old people have a preexisting condition so of course they would also have it when they die.

 

Also, using that same data for most under 50 it doesent matter if you have a preexisting condition or not. For someone who is 35 the chance of death is 0.004% if they have no existing condition and rises to 0.200% if they have one, which is still extremely low.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Westerly

[jakee 1,254]

3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

It's a classic.

https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/264331-spending-time-with-jebus/?tab=comments#comment-4577000

It was so wierd I didn't even notice that the point of the story was that Ron voted for Trump because he wanted him get rid of all the 'coons.

[jakee 1,254]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Where I say that? 

How can you not be saying that?

Quote

I think they are both idiots.  

Even if that were true one would be an idiot protecting others and one would be an idiot recklessly endangering others. Come on Brent, you can do it, stop blindly following Crenshaw's conclusion and admit the exceedingly obvious fact that one of those two is clearly behaving more sensibly than the other.

Edited January 19, 2021 by jakee

[sfzombie13 307]

12 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Explain this then

i tried to in my post with all links explaining the science, which you totally ignored by the way.  i assumed you were just ignoring the science, as most folks of your type do, but then i see this?  seriously?!?  ok, one more time with feeling and without all the supporting evidence linked, as it takes a bit of time that i wasted for one who can't or won't read it.

when you don't wear a mask, the vapor from breath can travel up to 27 feet.  when you put an ineffective cloth mask on, that takes it down to about 2-4 feet.  as others have said, this is for others and not the one wearing the mask.  this guy gets it, because with no mask, he would be spreading his breath vapor (which would also presumably carry the ~23 micron covid virus with it) to the ones in the next circle.  the combination of everyone wearing a mask and staying six feet away from one another is what stops the transmission of the virus. 

44 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Explain this then

you must have been on another planet for the past four years then.  most of our problems are due to they leftover systemic racism.  the "leadership" of the past four years simply reinforced that by using said racism, much the same as they used it in the early '60s on the civil rights workers in mi.  when donny gets escorted out of the white house, do you think they are just gonna go away?  childish thoughts at best, at worst, dangerous thoughts.

you should watch the documentary called "freedom on my mind", from '94 about the summer of '64 in ms.  i knew it was bad, but that showed me some things i was not aware of, like how the dixiecrats came to be republicans.  had nothing to do with politics, just keeping black folks from voting.  it's shameful the lengths we will go to to suppress certain groups, even more so when others get on posts here to try to justify it. 

 

[wmw999 2,121]

7 hours ago, Westerly said:

Yep and that exact link also demonstrates what everyone already knows. That is two points:

-The vast majority of those who die from Covid are over 60.

-The vast majority of those over 60 have a preexisting condition. (75%, increasing to 85% at age 80).

-Ultimately, nearly 1 in 2 Americans have a preexisting condition, so it's less 'covid only kills those with a preexisting condition' and more 'most people, especially older people have a preexisting condition regardless'.

Correlational and causation are not the same thing. All old people have a preexisting condition so of course they would also have it when they die.

 

Also, using that same data for most under 50 it doesent matter if you have a preexisting condition or not. For someone who is 35 the chance of death is 0.004% if they have no existing condition and rises to 0.200% if they have one, which is still extremely low.

One thing to think about: sometimes something is a "pre-existing condition" only if something else pops up. Kind of like how the roof being a little old isn't a problem until a hailstorm comes along, and then the insurance company doesn't want to cover it because there's evidence that it wasn't perfect.

I'm 66. I take no medications, only vitamins (ones that I want to take). I have very mild reflux, which I control with OTC medication -- a bottle or so a year. I go through less than a bottle a year of aspirin, too. I'd say I have no comorbidities. I'm a woman, so I have a better chance than most of osteoporosis (bone density pretty much always decreases with age, especially in women). I skydive, backpack solo, and don't consider a 10-mile hike to be something to train for.

So -- are the reflux and decreased bone density comorbidities? I can assure you they would be if someone were looking for comorbidities. I pay minor attention to them, so they don't begin to impact my life. An insurance company could definitely weaponize them, as would someone who wanted to explain why I might be more susceptible to COVID (as far as I know, I haven't had it).

The definition of comordidity is just as fluid and manipulable as just about anything else. These days, it's weaponized to diminish the target. That's what we use words for now, paint the picture we want to paint, and make a subjective and comfortable truth.

Wendy P.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, sfzombie13 said:

 

you must have been on another planet for the past four years then.  most of our problems are due to they leftover systemic racism.  the "leadership" of the past four years simply reinforced that by using said racism, much the same as they used it in the early '60s on the civil rights workers in mi.  when donny gets escorted out of the white house, do you think they are just gonna go away?  childish thoughts at best, at worst, dangerous thoughts.

you should watch the documentary called "freedom on my mind", from '94 about the summer of '64 in ms.  i knew it was bad, but that showed me some things i was not aware of, like how the dixiecrats came to be republicans.  had nothing to do with politics, just keeping black folks from voting.  it's shameful the lengths we will go to to suppress certain groups, even more so when others get on posts here to try to justify it. 

 

If systemic racism was such a problem, why didn’t a black President, AG and Secretary of Homeland Security do anything about it?  In fact Obama claimed his election was proof that it didn’t exist.  Or are we only a racist country when the President has an R after his name?

BTW the strident defense of masks and lockdowns kind of makes Crenshaw’s point 

[wmw999 2,121]

7 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

If systemic racism was such a problem, why didn’t a black President, AG and Secretary of Homeland Security do anything about it?  In fact Obama claimed his election was proof that it didn’t exist.  Or are we only a racist country when the President has an R after his name?

BTW the strident defense of masks and lockdowns kind of makes Crenshaw’s point 

Because they weren't kings. Funny how that works -- systemic means it's in the systems, which are impacted by laws (passed by legislative bodies), companies and organizations (controlled by their BODs and executive staff), and people's behavior (controlled by people). And Obama did not claim that his election said it didn't exist; Larry Kudlow and other people said that (ignoring the people who didn't vote for Obama -- they're part of the system, too).

And saying that the defense of masks being evidence that they don't help is ridiculous.

Wendy P.

[jakee 1,254]

31 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

If systemic racism was such a problem, why didn’t a black President, AG and Secretary of Homeland Security do anything about it?  In fact Obama claimed his election was proof that it didn’t exist.  Or are we only a racist country when the President has an R after his name?

That might just be the most pig ignorant thing I’ve ever read on here. How is a President of a federal republic supposed to be able to fix systemic racism at all levels from community on up in 8 years anyway? Not to mention that the things they did do that actually worked, like consent decrees for blatantly racist, corrupt and disfunctional PDs were blasted by people like you for being big government overreach.

40 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

BTW the strident defense of masks and lockdowns kind of makes Crenshaw’s point 

Oh hang in, maybe this is the most ignorant thing I’ve ever read. It’s really tricky to choose between the two!

No, it doesn’t make his point. The teacher stridently insisting that 2+2=4 does not make the point of the idiot child who insists 2+2 may as well =5 because maths is all a liberal construct based on fear and mushy feelings anyway. 

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, wmw999 said:

Because they weren't kings. Funny how that works -- systemic means it's in the systems, which are impacted by laws (passed by legislative bodies), companies and organizations (controlled by their BODs and executive staff), and people's behavior (controlled by people). And Obama did not claim that his election said it didn't exist; Larry Kudlow and other people said that (ignoring the people who didn't vote for Obama -- they're part of the system, too).

And saying that the defense of masks being evidence that they don't help is ridiculous.

Wendy P.

The Ds had both the House AND the Senate and they never even passed a single bill addressing systemic racism (that I am aware of)

Never said they don’t help, but the Lefts fetish with masks and lockdowns is out of all proportion to their effectiveness.  

[SkyDekker 1,122]

On 1/16/2021 at 10:35 AM, brenthutch said:

And that is why they wear their masks in their car when they are by themselves.The need to virtue signal must be overwhelming 

Nah, I just do that when I have to make frequent stops on one trip. No need to constantly take it off and put it back on, just easier to keep it on. I could care less what other people think of it.

[tonyhays 86]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

Nah, I just do that when I have to make frequent stops on one trip. No need to constantly take it off and put it back on, just easier to keep it on. I could care less what other people think of it.

Or it could be a rideshare operator on the way to his next fare.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

6 minutes ago, tonyhays said:

Or it could be a rideshare operator on the way to his next fare.

Yup, many reasons why you would be wearing a mask when alone in a car. Brent thinking it is only to virtue signal says more about Brent than anything.

Edited January 19, 2021 by SkyDekker

[jakee 1,254]

On 1/16/2021 at 11:55 PM, brenthutch said:

As I said it is written from his point of view.  One can easily rephrase it as: Conservatives are reckless and uncaring and Liberals are careful and compassionate.

Sure, if you rephrase it to take out all the bits where he denigrates liberals then the article doesn't denigrate liberals. What an astute observation.

[sfzombie13 307]

5 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If systemic racism was such a problem, why didn’t a black President, AG and Secretary of Homeland Security do anything about it?  In fact Obama claimed his election was proof that it didn’t exist.  Or are we only a racist country when the President has an R after his name?

BTW the strident defense of masks and lockdowns kind of makes Crenshaw’s point 

while i am an extremely easy going person in real life, sometimes something has to give.  it's a damned good thing that you and i aren't in the same room drinking while this conversation is going on.  having said that, i will address the question as if it were just that.

some people actually understand how things work and don't need to ask ourselves why something that was not only formed over the course of over 400 years could not be just reversed in eight years, but even if it WERE possible, those of us who actually listen to and care about others also know that systemic means (paraphrasing here, that means putting it in my own words from memory, i could be wrong, you should look it up) built into the system.  to be sure, you are most definitely a racist, and that is your right.  most republicans are also racist, and that is their right.  hell, everyone has a prejudice, that is a fact.  it only becomes a problem when we start letting it take over our lives.  when lots of people are saying the same thing, and have been for decades, maybe you should start listening.  maybe we all should.

the nation was founded on a faulty foundation and it needs fixed.  fixing a foundation is tricky and doesn't always work.  in this case, it is the only option besides throwing in the towel, because if we were to try a constitutional convention today we would be so fucked it wouldn't be america, it would be amazonland or some shit.  so we need to work together to fix shit, and that means dumbass racists need to keep their opinions inside their homes where it belongs.  every racist.  period.  i don't often say this, but my prejudice is obese folks.  makes me cringe when i see one.  but ya know what?  nobody hardly knows (until now) that and i never act on it.  i have some large friends, and half my family is also large.  i have even been with larger women.  it stays the fuck inside my head and never affects how i deal with anyone, as it should. 

i don't have all the answers, nobody does.  but i have some, and most aren't mine, they come from folks a whole lot better at this shit than me.  get your head out of your fourth point of contact and start coming up with your own that are workable and stop with this bullshit.  or just drop the pretenses and admit it.  either way, you're wasting a lot of time going backwards.

[yoink 321]

18 hours ago, murps2000 said:

 

To your point about chin diaper effectiveness, I thought the purpose was to protect others more than to protect the wearer. In case you are unknowingly infected but not yet symptomatic. 

 

A short video that brent obviously simply cannot wrap his brain around. Pick ANY number for mask effectiveness - it's ALWAYS more effective if more people are wearing them.

Edited January 19, 2021 by yoink