GA Senate Run off

[SkyDekker 1,121]

On 11/7/2020 at 12:38 AM, headoverheels said:

We saw the opposite effect in Ohio, where mail-in ballots were counted ahead of election day.  Big blue lead at first (unexpected in Ohio), then in person voting got counted and the expected Republican win emerged. 

Yes, when that happens to Republicans it is a great come from behind victory and exactly how things should be. If it happens the other way around, it is clear evidence of voter fraud.

[TriGirl 268]

On 11/7/2020 at 1:05 PM, JoeWeber said:

... while their ballots work their way through the highly efficient military systems after their wives in the US receive them at the home address and forward them on.

Not all of us have a wife to forward our mail.  Plus, I have to use diplomatic pouch, since we don't have military mail here in Papua New Guinea.

Luckily, my state sent absentee ballots this year via email -- though it did cause a lot of confusion and searching the office for resources to follow all the directions for double-wrapping to send them back (which didn't happen in time -- flat mail takes 3 weeks during non-holiday/normal times), so....   went with Option 2.  Good thing they were allowing ballots to be faxed in.  Although, the fax number was always busy when I tried for a couple of weeks.

Option 3:  Being military, I was able to get FVAP to help me get it faxed.  Verified the Thursday before the election that my ballot was received and processed.  Success!

Edited November 10, 2020 by TriGirl
clarity

[jakee 1,254]

28 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

The Friday before the election, I correctly predicted that if Biden won, it would be because GOP voters generally requested far fewer mail-in ballots than Democrats did.

You don't know that. There's no basis for suggesting that Republicans who did't vote by mail didn't vote. Biden told supporters to postal vote and they posted their votes. Trump told supporters to in person vote and they went to the polls. If Biden had lost would you say it's because his campaign discouraged people from turning up on the day?

 

It'll take a much more sophisticated analysis to find out if different rates of mail in participation had a significant impact on total votes cast, and taking the simple number as proof that the candidate's attitudes to mail in voting was the deciding factor of the election shows you don't really understand the dynamics of it at all, IMO.

[kallend 1,621]

4 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

The Friday before the election, I correctly predicted that if Biden won, it would be because GOP voters generally requested far fewer mail-in ballots than Democrats did.

Don't dislocate your shoulder while patting yourself on the back.

[kallend 1,621]

3 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

There's nothing WRONG with being RIGHT. 

Now that a vaccine might be available soon, you should see what else I have planned. 

It was not exactly an original prediction on your part.

[jakee 1,254]

5 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

I DO know that...

You DON’T know that.

3 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

because the numbers clearly showed me that even in states where more voters identify as GOP than Dems, that GOP voters cast fewer mail in votes, and requested fewer mail in votes to start with.

That doesn’t mean they didn’t vote because of it. It definitely doesn’t mean enough of them didn’t vote to swing an election.

3 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

People say they will show up on Election Day. Maybe they do, maybe they don't for one reason or another. If your candidate tells you to skip mail in voting because it's 'fraud,' then maybe some of your own supporters, who believe everything you say, decide to skip mail/drop off and just show up on Election Day. 

See? You just explained exactly why you DON’T know that Trump supporters not voting by mail cost the election.

I’m going to ignore the rest of your essay as I assume it’s all based on the same clearly false premise.

[gowlerk 1,903]

21 minutes ago, jakee said:

I’m going to ignore the rest of your essay as I assume it’s all based on the same clearly false premise.

I don't read him at all. But I am going to say that the whole mail in ballot thing is potentially a game changer in just who turns out. It could be a strong factor in the upcoming GA runoffs.

[ryoder 1,381]

8 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

The Friday before the election, I correctly predicted that if Biden won, it would be because GOP voters generally requested far fewer mail-in ballots than Democrats did.

Kevin McCarthy was warning about Trump's disparagement of mail-in-voting two months before the election!

https://www.axios.com/republicans-mail-in-voting-trump-a75b7b58-6405-4840-a48f-e26caf72b0fc.html

And I heard statements from multiple pundits predicting a "red mirage" on election day, followed by a "blue wave" in the following days as ballots were counted.

[headoverheels 291]

Georgia will be without one of the two senators for a couple of days in January.  The one whose term is expiring will not be replaced until the runoff election.  The other one, who was appointed to replace a Senator whose term doesn't expire this season, will continue to serve through that gap.

Georgia Senate runoff

 

[JoeWeber 2,294]

On 11/10/2020 at 12:30 AM, RobertMBlevins said:

I DO know that...because the numbers clearly showed me that even in states where more voters identify as GOP than Dems, that GOP voters cast fewer mail in votes, and requested fewer mail in votes to start with. People say they will show up on Election Day. Maybe they do, maybe they don't for one reason or another. If your candidate tells you to skip mail in voting because it's 'fraud,' then maybe some of your own supporters, who believe everything you say, decide to skip mail/drop off and just show up on Election Day. 

And historic numbers on both sides DID show up on Election Day. But by disabling one way to vote by lying about it as Trump did, you are going to lose votes somewhere if you discourage one method of voting...especially in a pandemic where people SAY they will show to the polls, but decide not to at the last minute. 

You have to look at the numbers. Most if not all of these battleground states ended up going to Biden by not that much. It was not a blowout either way. The spread was generally in the tens of thousands of votes at most, but where millions of people in that state voted. Voting by mail is not only easier, this election cycle it was actually safer. Where Trump lost the votes was when a relatively few number of voters, for one reason or another, failed to show on Election Day, and had already dismissed mail in voting as an option. Had Trump been honest about mail in voting and said to his supporters, "If you don't feel comfortable, or safe, standing in line during this pandemic...then vote by mail. It's only important that YOU VOTE..." Well, maybe he would have made up those close numbers easily. His advisers should have warned him he was making a mistake telling his supporters lies about mail in voting, which reached historic records as well. 

But Trump chose not to take that approach, or be honest about mail in voting. It cost him the election. The Dems got a small advantage over him simply because he told a big fat lie about mail in voting. The numbers show it. In Pennsylvania, only about 60% of voters list their party affiliation as Democrat. For independents or other party, maybe 5%. The remainder ID themselves as Republicans. Dems turned out not quite as well as GOP voters, the only difference being that Dem voters requested 1.8 million mail in ballots as opposed to 800,000 by GOP. Counting the independent voter requests, total requests came to 2.9 million. If you add up the 1.8M and the 800,000 requests by GOP,  that is 2.6 million. To at least match that rate, GOP voters should have requested at least 900,000 (or more) ballots approximately. And as of the Friday before the election, they had only returned 70% of their 800,000 ballots. The Dems had returned just over 80% by that Friday. By HOW many votes did Trump lose Pennsylvania? 

It was a matter of simple numbers. Not only did GOP voters request a smaller proportion of ballots according to party affiliation, they got fewer ballots returned in time. It was a recipe for disaster, should the election turn out to be close in Pennsylvania. You have to believe most of this anomaly was caused by Trump's bad-mouthing and lies regarding mail in voting...which at least some of supporters swallowed. It cost Trump the election. 

And it didn't happen in just Pennsylvania either. This scenario was repeated in a couple of other key battleground states. You can't tell your followers not to vote a certain way and then force them to simply show up on Election Day in person. Not good enough. There is more than one way to vote, and trying to cut out one of those methods as a part of your platform...well, frankly it's pretty stupid. First rule of successful politics: You take ANY legal vote, from ANYWHERE you can get it.

Trump forgot that. 

Robert,

Your posts are too long for an internet forum. I doubt I'm alone in just reading the first few sentences and then moving along.

Just a thought.

[JerryBaumchen 1,047]

16 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Don't let the forum thread door hit you on the way out... 

I'm the same guy who has edited over sixty books, and wrote more than 500 illustrated articles for the now-defunct citizen news site Newsvine. That is probably why. Just because you have a 100-word attention span doesn't mean everybody else does. 

Hi Robert,

I read your posts completely.  As with many posts here, I often learn something.

Jerry Baumchen

[JoeWeber 2,294]

53 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Don't let the forum thread door hit you on the way out... 

I'm the same guy who has edited over sixty books, and wrote more than 500 illustrated articles for the now-defunct citizen news site Newsvine. That is probably why. Just because you have a 100-word attention span doesn't mean everybody else does. 

Was that supposed to shame me? Aren't you the guy who claimed life long membership in the DB Cooper thread as a credential for shutting it down and then continued to post there? You aren't the only yo on SC who has edited and published Robert. I respect your work. It's just that in some things length isn't an advantage.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

4 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

No big deal, but this isn't Twitter, there isn't a 144 character limit, and I didn't cause the shutdown (or even the reopening) of the Cooper thread. That was mostly caused by others' personal attacks on other posters there. Most of the folks in Cooperland think the cause was user 'Georger,' who kept sending PM complaints to the former administrator, after that admin banned him. The only thing I ever did there like that was to assist in getting rid of that spammer who was using 20 different identities to post up porn. LOL he was REAL tiresome. 

Cooper Party coming next June, by the way. Covid allowing. 

I cannot imagine a more clarifying post in response. Well done. 

[RonD1120 58]

It is my understanding that run-offs in GA tend to favor Republican. 

RE: David Perdue & Kelly Loeffler

[gowlerk 1,903]

1 minute ago, RonD1120 said:

It is my understanding that run-offs in GA tend to favor Republican. 

RE: David Perdue & Kelly Loeffler

I agree. I believe they were the closest to the 50% needed. All the same it's a new fight. It all comes down to who actually votes as always and I must say your side has the better record in that department. It will be one heck of a battle for sure.

[billvon 2,384]

12 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Your posts are too long for an internet forum. I doubt I'm alone in just reading the first few sentences and then moving along.

I am a firm believer in the wise saying "Internet posts should be as short as is feasible - and no shorter."  (Well, I think someone said that.  If not they should have.)  There are things you can't express in a sound bite sized post.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

It was also your understanding that Jesus was coming, Armageddon was nigh, Q was real, Trump would win and quitting drinking would make you a better man. Quite the track record Nostradamus.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

3 minutes ago, billvon said:

I am a firm believer in the wise saying "Internet posts should be as short as is feasible - and no shorter."  (Well, I think someone said that.  If not they should have.)  There are things you can't express in a sound bite sized post.

Absolutely. Of course, explaining canine theory to the guy whose dog just shit on your lawn might cause important points to be lost.

[Phil1111 908]

2 hours ago, RonD1120 said:

It is my understanding that run-offs in GA tend to favor Republican. 

RE: David Perdue & Kelly Loeffler

Well it is the heart of evangelical country. They scream, cry and speak as if they were living in the time of Nero. That trump is their crusader ready to slay the heathen mobs.

Edited November 12, 2020 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,903]

4 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

That trump is their crusader ready to slay the heathen mobs

The heathens out number the righteous in GA. It all comes down to who is motivated to vote in the run-off without all the excitement of the big contest. My money is on Ron.

[Phil1111 908]

30 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The heathens out number the righteous in GA. It all comes down to who is motivated to vote in the run-off without all the excitement of the big contest. My money is on Ron.

You can be certain that the evangelicals will be passing around the collection plates on Sundays. All to raise money for the election. The Dem mobs have to be defeated, no annihilated.

[gowlerk 1,903]

I'm not sure just what game Mitch is playing now. He has just said no to advancing another Covid crisis bailout bill. Either he is playing for more time so that he can do it closer to the special election to get more votes for the bucks, or perhaps he does not have enough support among his caucus to get it through. I would have to think holding it up would give the Ds something to hammer away at.