Who will win the 2020 election?

[RobertMBlevins 51]

Mayor Pete...he's unflappable. You gotta love it. 

There's a groundswell building in this country, and Trump's actions, remarks, as well as his campaign itself...have actually helped Democrats. Trump has succeeded in bringing out the vote tomorrow, only he may be surprised on the reasons WHY. 

Voters have already shattered records for mail in, as well as in-person early voting. And no one is going to tell me that this happened because SO many people were SO enthusiastic on getting their vote in for Trump. A majority did this, in my opinion only, because they have absolutely HAD IT. 

Good luck to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris tomorrow. The opinion polls are over. Trump is behind in nearly every battleground state, and since he was foolish enough to bad mouth mail in voting and try to stop parts of it, this benefited Biden and Harris because it only drove Democrats to do that type of voting much more, and get a big head start in vote count...while Republicans avoided that type of voting because they believed Trump when he told them it was all a fraud. He will live to regret those statements. 

There is no logical reason to believe that voters will suddenly NOT turn out tomorrow. They will turn out, and the message they will send to the opposition is simple.

NO MORE. 

Here's my official prediction, in the form of a parody page I made of the New York Times front page:

As far as numbers, I call it 313 Electoral College votes for Biden. It's an educated guess of course. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by RobertMBlevins

[wmw999 488]

7 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Mayor Pete showing how to treat Trump supporters at a Dem rally.

That's how you get to be Mayor Pete, instead of Joe Boring Speaker. That whole preparation and practicing public speaking thing...

Wendy P.

[Phil1111 167]

Why are Trump supporters usually first to the ballot box?

Because they’re always Russian

[Erroll 15]

From an outsiders point of view :- it is a sad indictment of democracy in America in 2020 that businesses board up and fences are put up around the White House for the election.

[wolfriverjoe 392]

1 hour ago, Erroll said:

From an outsiders point of view :- it is a sad indictment of democracy in America in 2020 that businesses board up and fences are put up around the White House for the election.

Got some news for you - 

It's equally sad from an 'insiders' point of view.

But (and it's an important 'but'), it also shows how frightened Trump is. 

I think he knows deep in his black and malignant heart that he's going to lose. He may try to declare victory and try to get the uncounted ballots thrown out (many mail in or absentee ballots won't be counted for a day or two).

And he knows full well that if he tries to pull that sort of garbage that the protests resulting from that will make the BLM marches from last summer look like a kiddie parade.

[kallend 443]

2 hours ago, Erroll said:

From an outsiders point of view :- it is a sad indictment of democracy in America in 2020 that businesses board up and fences are put up around the White House for the election.

I hear Mexico was asked to pay for that fence, but declined.

[kallend 443]

It's not a democracy when a citizen in Wyoming has 40x the amount of clout as a voter in California.

It's not a democracy when voters in only a handful of swing states determine who the president will be.

The system was set up explicitly to protect the interests of slaveowners some 240 years ago.

[Phil1111 167]

44 minutes ago, kallend said:

It's not a democracy when a citizen in Wyoming has 40x the amount of clout as a voter in California.

It's not a democracy when voters in only a handful of swing states determine who the president will be.

The system was set up explicitly to protect the interests of slaveowners some 240 years ago.

Slaveowners 240 years ago living of the work of others. GOP today living of the work of Blue states.

[Faicon9493 16]

I am optimistic for Biden. Despite losing in 2016, HRC still won the popular vote without the boost of Trump having the deaths of thousands of Americans on his hands. Now, we see a massive voter turnout with numerous attempts by Republicans to suppress votes. That sends a message. Trump is going to have to have a massive Jedi mind trick to overcome the fact that he knew, he lied, and thousands died.

[JerryBaumchen 302]

Hi folks,

'Mystery robocalls urge voters to 'stay home'

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54802115

Hmmm, I wonder who could be doing such a dastardly thing?

Jerry Baumchen

[434 2]

Waiting for some good news, and hopefully it will a significant win by Biden. 

 

The world need a rest from Trump now. 

[Westerly 35]

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

'Mystery robocalls urge voters to 'stay home'

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54802115

Hmmm, I wonder who could be doing such a dastardly thing?

Jerry Baumchen

That brings up another matter--fucking spam calls. Something like 50% of all calls are SPAM calls these days. Every person in the country who owns a phone gets them. I bet the president himself gets them. It would be nice if the FCC would get off their ass and do something about it. The main issue is the invention of VOIP which allows phones to spoof any number it wants quite easily. Start at the source and you'll find the problem.

[piisfish 63]

some people here must be getting nervous. Rarely have I seen Speakers corner with a "last message" posted 2 hours ago 

the provisional results seem much tighter than I had anticipated.

[ryoder 357]

I'm not expecting any conclusive results tonight in anything outside of my own state.

But here in CO where mail-in ballots are default, results tonight are meaningful. Former CO gov Hickenlooper (D) is projected to easily defeat incumbent Cory Gardner (R), and Gardener has already conceded.

[SkyDekker 253]

The fact that one candidate currently has more than 50% of the popular vote and more than 2.5 million more votes than the other candidate AND the election is very close shows what an absolutely bizarre system the US has. 

[JerryBaumchen 302]

6 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

The fact that one candidate currently has more than 50% of the popular vote and more than 2.5 million more votes than the other candidate AND the election is very close shows what an absolutely bizarre system the US has. 

Hi Sky,

Yup.  And, there are still people who do not want to change it.

Old dogs, new tricks?  I guess.

Jerry Baumchen

[ryoder 357]

22 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

The fact that one candidate currently has more than 50% of the popular vote and more than 2.5 million more votes than the other candidate AND the election is very close shows what an absolutely bizarre system the US has. 

In March 2019, CO governor signed the bill to put CO into the National Popular Vote Pact. Some people were unhappy with this, and succeeded into putting it to a referendum in this election. It looks like it has passed.

[Phil1111 167]

25 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Sky,

Yup.  And, there are still people who do not want to change it.

Old dogs, new tricks?  I guess.

Jerry Baumchen

Why change what works? You pack your main the same way all the time because?

[yoink 200]

5 hours ago, ryoder said:

In March 2019, CO governor signed the bill to put CO into the National Popular Vote Pact. Some people were unhappy with this, and succeeded into putting it to a referendum in this election. It looks like it has passed.

Woohoo!

[headoverheels 111]

6 hours ago, ryoder said:

In March 2019, CO governor signed the bill to put CO into the National Popular Vote Pact. Some people were unhappy with this, and succeeded into putting it to a referendum in this election. It looks like it has passed.

"Decides on Colorado joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which would give the state’s nine electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote if states representing at least 270 Electoral College votes adopt the compact."

I hope that the actual language reflects at least half (not just 270), in case number of reps changes (e.g., when PR becomes a state).

[headoverheels 111]

Pretty funny that Fox News called Arizona for Biden hours ago, but others are waiting.  I can just see Trump's orange face turning red.

 

[TriGirl 109]

I just read an article that said NBC News cut into Trump’s last address in order to correct all the misinformation he was spreading. My question is: why did it take 5 years for any news organization to implement this process?

[yoink 200]

31 minutes ago, TriGirl said:

I just read an article that said NBC News cut into Trump’s last address in order to correct all the misinformation he was spreading. My question is: why did it take 5 years for any news organization to implement this process?

Because it looks like he might not be president much longer and suddenly (and completely coincidentally) they've found a spine?

[TriGirl 109]

Just like it took until the second debate of his re-election campaign before moderators decided to mute microphones.

[RobertMBlevins 51]

On 11/1/2020 at 8:44 PM, RobertMBlevins said:

*Look what I posted on last Sunday about Pennsylvania and the mail-in vote, and compare that to what is happening today. MSNBC and CNN should hire me. I started talking about this issue before THEY did, and they are hammering on it right now.* 

One thing that *may* hurt Trump is especially prevalent in Pennsylvania, a state that did heavy mail-in voting. Trump spent so much time bad-mouthing mail-in voting that according to CNN...most of the mail-ins actually came from Democrats. This is because Republicans generally believed Trump. And we already know a majority of the early voting went Democrat as well. So...Trump's only chance to actually WIN Pennsylvania relies almost exclusively on a turnout on Election Day. 

And Trump DOES have a problem regarding mail in voting and he may wish he had not bad-mouthed it so much. Pennsylvania could just be an example. Here's an excerpt from the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's Office, from today:

Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics

Last Report: 11/1/2020

• Mail Ballots Returned
• Mail Ballots Rejected
• Mail Ballot Requests

Mail Ballot Requests by Party Registration

Party	Count	Percent
Democrats	1,946,877	62.8
Republicans	787,742	25.4
Minor	25,532	0.8
No Party Affiliation	337,590	10.9
TOTAL	3,097,741	100.0

Pennsylvania registered Democrats have a 1,159,135 ballot request lead over registered Republicans.

To make matters worse for Trump, a majority of those overwhelmingly Dem mail in votes have already been returned (both Dem and GOP) leaving the Dems with over a ONE MILLION VOTE head start...and three days after the election to get the remaining votes back in. Even if both sides returned every single vote, the Dems would still have an edge there of over a million votes. 

Now, it's true that perhaps the GOP could muster a huge Election Day turnout and somehow make up all those votes...but since 60% of registered voters in Pennsylvania identify as Democrat...and Trump was foolish enough to talk many Republicans OUT of using the mail in system...he could live to regret his remarks. 

When Pennsylvania lists party affiliation as 'No Party Affiliation,' most of the time these people have identified as independents....which is not currently a favorable group for Trump, either. Below is the number of ballots already returned, with their party affiliations. Also not good for Trump. 

Last Report: 11/1/2020
Source: Data provided by Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s office

• Mail Ballots Returned
• Mail Ballots Rejected
• Mail Ballot Requests

Mail Ballots Returned: 2,404,354

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration

Party	Returned Ballots	Freq. Distribution	Requested Ballots	Return Rate
Democrats	1,591,048	66.2	1,946,877	81.7
Republicans	552,627	23.0	787,742	70.2
Minor	17,120	0.7	25,532	67.1
No Party Affiliation	243,559	10.1	337,590	72.1
TOTAL	2,404,354	100.0	3,097,741	77.6

 

Added Note:  Out of all those requested and returned ballots...only a mere 835 were rejected, meaning mail in voter 'fraud' as claimed by Trump is a load of bullshit. However...when the ballots are actually OPENED AND COUNTED, there will be some incorrectly done ballots. There always is. But usually this is far less than one percent of the actual ballots. 99%++ of people DO fill them out correctly. And in a majority of these cases it was simply because a voter forgot to sign their ballot. In that case, the election guys try to contact you using the information you provided when you registered, set aside your ballot, and give you a chance to come in and sign it before they reject it completely. 

Now if you have waded through this whole post, consider one more point:

When Trump bad-mouthed mail in voting, this same Pennsylvania scenario could be repeated in other battleground states that might ordinarily be close...but that Biden might actually take fairly easily because of all the people who TRUSTED mail-in or ballot request/drop off voting. In battleground states that are close...but where more voters actually identify as Democrats...turnout for the GOP would have to be in record numbers to overcome the mail-in deficits. If Democrats turn out in record numbers, as voters in general have so far...Trump is most likely doomed. Even if GOP voters suddenly show up in record numbers on Election Day...they still have a ton of ground to make up and a limited number of voters to do it. 

And if you think about it...Trump brought it on himself by telling lies about mail in voting. And practically everything else. 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by RobertMBlevins
Edited for length to get to the point. Scenario is being repeated in Georgia as well.