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434

Who will win the 2020 election?

Trump or Biden?   

43 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Who do you think will win the election 2020? Not who you want to win, but the one you think will win.

    • Trump
      17
    • Biden
      25
    • Election?
      1
  2. 2. Who do you want to win the election 2020

    • Trump
      11
    • Biden
      31
    • Election?
      1

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  • Poll closed on 11/03/2020 at 09:20 AM

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(edited)

Once again Jonathan Pie absolutely NAILS it.

 

 

I honestly think Trump will win - probably with the worst popular vote numbers in history, but the electoral college works in his favor and his fanbase will absolutely be out and voting in those states. Can we stop talking about the 'lead' Biden has, please? Not only is is BULLSHIT, but it's actually detrimental to the people who are generally talking about it.

I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I'm genuinely losing sleep over this.

Edited by yoink
  • Like 1

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2 hours ago, yoink said:

Once again Jonathan Pie absolutely NAILS it.

 

 

I honestly think Trump will win - probably with the worst popular vote numbers in history, but the electoral college works in his favor and his fanbase will absolutely be out and voting in those states. Can we stop talking about the 'lead' Biden has, please? Not only is is BULLSHIT, but it's actually detrimental to the people who are generally talking about it.

I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I'm genuinely losing sleep over this.

Not me. I've never wanted an abortion and that's unlikely to change. I'm not opposed to gay marriage but at my age, given how slow I learn new things, it's probably not for me. I'm already on medicare and I'm in good shape financially. So really, the bottom line for me in this election, is if the disadvantaged and disaffected ie, the young, women and people of color and the rest don't come out in force to defeat Trump then I'm done caring. Instead of voting against my wallet I'll start voting in my favor. Why should I not?

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(edited)
10 hours ago, yoink said:

Can we stop talking about the 'lead' Biden has, please? Not only is is BULLSHIT, but it's actually detrimental to the people who are generally talking about it.

I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I'm genuinely losing sleep over this.

Clinton was 2-3% ahead in national polls, but what's the margin of sampling error? It can go to +/-3% or 4%! So the media was silly back then to be so sure of a Clinton win.

Trump won several "Blue wall" states by a margin of less than 1%, so the polls weren't that far off. However people who knew statistics should have known that Clinton did NOT have victory in the bag.

Now Biden is up around 10% nationally, and 4-6% in swing states. So if the worst-case error is 4%, then he could tie in those states, but any more than a 4% lead and it's very unlikely it will become a Trump win.

So if you're losing sleep over this, learn how statistical errors work and it may help you sleep a bit better.

I'm a big fan of Jonathan Pie, but he's pointing again to "hidden Trump voters"  - which is not really supported by the data: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

TL;DR: Trump can still win, but it's unlikely, so as many people as possible should VOTE and encourage others to VOTE, but also don't lose sleep, it's a fine balance but it must be struck.

Edited by olofscience

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This is true. I'm hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst. And, frankly, I'm not sure which would be worse: A Trump win (which might bring violence, but not organized attempts to "keep control"), or a Trump loss with more organized violence ("keep control") and a lame-duck president and Senate trying to leave a poison pill.

Wendy P.

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An interesting and hopeful post about the upcoming election and the overall future of American democracy from Heather Cox Richardson on FB. (Dated Oct 31 for those reading this in the future):

https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/

 

From the post:
 

Quote
I know it’s frightening to hear the stories of Republican leaders trying to get ballots thrown out, and right-wing thugs intimidating Biden voters, and so on. But that Republicans feel the need to engage in such tactics despite their ongoing voter suppression and gerrymandering is a tell-tale sign that they know their party has lost any hope of winning a majority of voters, and that the only way they can win an election is to cheat.
That strategy is not sustainable.

 

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27 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

An interesting and hopeful post about the upcoming election and the overall future of American democracy from Heather Cox Richardson on FB. (Dated Oct 31 for those reading this in the future):

https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/

 

From the post:
 

 

It's not sustainable otherwise. Something like just under 1/2 of 15 to 17 year olds in America are white. So even if the entire male half drops out of high school and pledges allegiance to Trump the base of uneducated white male voters will continue to shrink. 

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(edited)
1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

An interesting and hopeful post about the upcoming election ...

From the post:

I know it’s frightening to hear the stories of Republican leaders trying to get ballots thrown out, and right-wing thugs intimidating Biden voters, and so on. But that Republicans feel the need to engage in such tactics despite their ongoing voter suppression and gerrymandering is a tell-tale sign that they know their party has lost any hope of winning a majority of voters, and that the only way they can win an election is to cheat.
That strategy is not sustainable.

 

Feels so right but is so wrong. The GOP has relied upon gerrymandering for a long time. trump has managed to pack the SC. trump has found Barr, ready to do his bidding.

President Putin has fixed elections for half his political career. Dictators and despots have rigged "elections" for decades. Look how far trump has come in four years and extend that for four more. McConnell, trump and the GOP in power for four more. Imagine the possibilities!

trump has taught the GOP the finer points of fraud and they have returned those favors. trump is 74 and has lived his whole life cheating, scamming and lying.

Mrs. Richardson assumes a steady state of GOP corruption when we all know that under trump its morphed into a cancer.

Edited by Phil1111

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24 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

So even if the entire male half drops out of high school and pledges allegiance to Trump the base of uneducated white male voters will continue to shrink. 

Evolution continues and the fight between conservatism and liberalism will as well. I do not understand why people think non-whites are natural liberals. They are actually more likely to be conservatives. When the R party can no longer sustain it's grip on power by mostly appealing to race baiting it will evolve, it's complexion will change, and the world will keep on turning.

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11 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Evolution continues and the fight between conservatism and liberalism will as well. I do not understand why people think non-whites are natural liberals. They are actually more likely to be conservatives. When the R party can no longer sustain it's grip on power by mostly appealing to race baiting it will evolve, it's complexion will change, and the world will keep on turning.

" Four-in-ten Democratic registered voters are now nonwhite (black, Hispanic, Asian and other nonwhite racial groups), compared with 17% of the GOP."More detailed analysis..

The most important factor is party leadership and ideology which can obviously change faster than demographics.

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(edited)
17 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Evolution continues and the fight between conservatism and liberalism will as well. I do not understand why people think non-whites are natural liberals. They are actually more likely to be conservatives. When the R party can no longer sustain it's grip on power by mostly appealing to race baiting it will evolve, it's complexion will change, and the world will keep on turning.

Some do, I don't. I am simply pointing out that the re-supply undereducated white males in the next Presidential election shouldn't encourage conservatives. Especially as there will be 4 more years of attrition to the mostly conservative voting +65 year olds in 2024.

Edited by JoeWeber

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15 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Some do, I don't. I am simply pointing out that the re-supply undereducated white males in the next Presidential election shouldn't encourage conservatives. Especially as there will be 4 more years of attrition to the mostly conservative voting +65 year olds in 2024.

The last factor in this equation is fertility.. Setting aside outliers like Mrs.Barrett.

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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

Evolution continues and the fight between conservatism and liberalism will as well. I do not understand why people think non-whites are natural liberals. They are actually more likely to be conservatives. When the R party can no longer sustain it's grip on power by mostly appealing to race baiting it will evolve, it's complexion will change, and the world will keep on turning.

Yes and no.

One of the 'funnier' things that's become apparent is that Trump has a fair amount of appeal to older, male blacks & latinos. It seems to be that those folks like how Trump is 'powerful',  'makes his own rules', and is dominant over women.

But that is not as true for younger men 'of color'. 

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I have heard this morning that voter turnout is now projected to be higher than any election in over a century. If that is true, and all the ballots are counted, it will be very hard for anyone to say that the will of the American people is not clear.

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7 minutes ago, kallend said:

The only way Trump can win is by cheating.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if that's exactly what he does.

He's trying to convince people that there will be 'massive voter fraud'.

He's trying to convince people that the votes have to be counted and a winner announced the day of the election.

He's promoting violence against the Biden campaign. 

He's advocating insurrection. 

He IS cheating.

And the Trumpettes are cheering it on.

Note: This is a partial list of Trump's attempts to cheat the election.

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(edited)

Texas Supreme Court rejects Republican-led effort to throw out nearly 127,000 Harris County votes

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/01/texas-drive-thru-votes-harris-county/

The all-Republican court denied the request without an order or opinion, as justices did last month in a similar lawsuit brought by some of the same plaintiffs.

Edited by ryoder

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(edited)
17 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Instead of voting against my wallet I'll start voting in my favor. Why should I not?

It's called doing the right thing and putting the greater good above your personal interests. This is clearly something you dont understand by your own self-admission. Centralized, logical leadership in the pandemic will save hundreds of thousands of lives. Wives, husbands and even some kids, who will otherwise die at some point in the near future with a continued lack of any leadership in this pandemic. For all you know the life saved could be yours.

Edited by Westerly

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Hi folks,

I see the Dufus in Chief supports this crap:  'Trump Speaks Fondly Of Supporters Surrounding Biden Bus In Texas'

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930083915/trump-speaks-fondly-of-supporters-protecting-biden-bus-in-texas

I have never removed any political yard sign; and hope that I never would in the future.

Jerry Baumchen

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