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kallend

TRUMP MUST GO - VOTE

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24 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Hi Jerry

I hope this finds you and yours well, and wish nothing but the same for all those here.

 Thanks for the laugh.The irony is amazing, no wonder they can't meme.

Do you honestly believe this a winning campaign slogan?

Any functioning adult. I find that logic worry some as does the American right. Bidens health both physical and mental is of great concern, do we really know if he'll survive C-19 if infected? That brings up the next logical question.What is their Plan?

It’s not a slogan, I’ve also heard it from staunch conservatives who have no intention of voting for Biden. 
BTW, braggadocio doesn’t make you sound strong, it makes you sound blustery. Facts, and countering arguments with data and facts, do. 
Wendy P.  

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3 hours ago, richravizza said:

Phill the election was determined in July when the country was wracked with left wing BLM violence.

I have often been fooled when trying to predict the outcome of US elections. I will say this, I am encouraged by the fact that a lot of R supporters have pretty much given up on trying to get the dotard re-elected and are focusing on doing as much as they can to attempt to save their Senate majority.

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22 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

I live on a small farm on a dead end dirt road in rural north Georgia.  Many of the properties on the road have Trump signs, most have multiple signs along with multiple American flags and crucifixes, making kind of a shrine.  The crucifixes do double duty, as many people around here believe putting a cross in your yard keeps away "the Rona" (Covid-19), especially if you decorate it with Christmas lights.  Go figure!

A few weeks ago we put a Biden/Harris sign on our pasture fence along the road.  It is the only democratic sign in the area.  Within a few days it was spray painted with "Juses".  After pondering it for a bit my wife realized it was supposed to say "Jesus" but it was misspelled.  Says something that they couldn't spell Jesus.

My wife made and put up a sign that said every time our sign was vandalized we would make a donation to the Biden campaign, and she added a new Biden/Harris sign to the fence.

For the next couple of weeks the signs were left alone, but every day more and more garbage was dumped along the roadside in front of our property, over a distance of several hundred yards.  Unfortunately none of the trash contains anything with an address on it.

More disturbing, we found one of our goats with a noose made of electric fence tape cinched tightly around it's neck.  Fortunately it was still alive and we were able to cut the noose off.

Last Friday my wife came home from work at lunch to find that someone had cut out a large section of fence containing the signs, and dumped it in a neighbor's yard up the road.  Our horses and goats were in that pasture, so I assume whoever cut the fence intended for our livestock to get out on the road and perhaps get run over or disappear into surrounding properties, most of which are forest.  Luckily the animals were in a different part of the pasture and they are all accounted for.

So don't try to tell me Trump supporters believe in free speech or political discourse.  Some, including some on my road, are thugs.  I have a strong suspicion about who is responsible but I can't prove it.

Of course the local police basically throw their hands in the air and say they can do nothing without more evidence, which is probably true.

My wife is determined to show we won't be pushed around so she went out this evening and put two new signs on the fence.  We have set up security cameras around the house and barn, and my son, his wife, and I spent a couple of hours on the shooting range we built here.  Hopefully the shooting will let whoever is responsible for the vandalism know we are well armed.  But, we are off at work for most of the day and I am concerned about how things might escalate.  Even if we get good photos from the security cameras an get a conviction it won't compensate if my dogs or livestock are killed, or my house is.burned down.  My wife says no-one would take it that far but I am not so sure.

Just life in Trumpistan I guess.  It does seem that the mood has changed in this country, or at least around here, over the last few years.

Damn Don, 

You two have my admiration. If you haven't already, consider the cell phone game cameras. I use those to back-up the regular game cameras. The cops use them so the pic's are admissible, at least around here. Good idea doing a little shooting on the range. You might need the practice in the coming Trumpocolypse.

Joe

The Walking Braindead.png

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6 hours ago, olofscience said:

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, who predicted the largest odds for Trump winning in 2016, says:

So yes, keep hoping. Trump DOES have a chance to win, just that this number is way below 50%.

Edit: source link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

Because of your nationality I'll try to be non partisan in my reasoning.

The US stock market is my tell.If you think there will be big changes in US tax and economic policy, you'd be selling by now.The reversing of the Trump tax cut will put the equity markets in free-fall, because dividends once payed to shareholders will be levied by the government.What most people don't realize is that half of all profits from the S&P500 companies are payed to share holders, so If the gov't is going to take more, shareholders get less.Huge dividend cuts will crush the market.Lower corporate profits exacerbate a sell off. 

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5 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Because of your nationality I'll try to be non partisan in my reasoning.

The US stock market is my tell.If you think there will be big changes in US tax and economic policy, you'd be selling by now.

In 2008 I got a free consultation from a CPA at Etrade.  Great, I thought.  He told me "if the Democrats win, sell everything you own by January.  They will tax more and the economy will collapse.  Companies will leave the US.  The dollar will tank."  I considered it, and decided not to.  From January 2009 to June 2010 I doubled my money in the market.

So I will take what you said with as much seriousness as I took his advice.

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(edited)
12 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Because of your nationality I'll try to be non partisan in my reasoning.

The US stock market is my tell.If you think there will be big changes in US tax and economic policy, you'd be selling by now.The reversing of the Trump tax cut will put the equity markets in free-fall, because dividends once payed to shareholders will be levied by the government.What most people don't realize is that half of all profits from the S&P500 companies are payed to share holders, so If the gov't is going to take more, shareholders get less.Huge dividend cuts will crush the market.Lower corporate profits exacerbate a sell off. 

Because you gave me a like I'll try to be non critical in my dissenting with the logic of the GOP.

1. trump has propped the markets up with $6 trillion in borrowing over the last four years. So equity markets were primed and primed again by federal stimulus.

2. spacer.png

3. McConnell has said he will not support any other relief bills. Biden and Pelosi have both supported another $2.5 trillion. Which is supported by US FED economists.

4. Wall street odds-makers have already priced a dem victory into the markets and the S&P is within a couple points of an all time record.

Edited by Phil1111

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2 hours ago, richravizza said:

Any functioning adult. I find that logic worry some as does the American right. Bidens health both physical and mental is of great concern, do we really know if he'll survive C-19 if infected? 

He's shown an understanding of how to avoid getting it, which honestly is more important in a president.

Which doctor would you want as your doctor?  The doctor who is always getting infections because he doesn't understand basic hygiene or health, or the one who is almost always healthy because he's anal about handwashing, sanitary procedure and diet/exercise?

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14 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Because of your nationality I'll try to be non partisan in my reasoning.

The US stock market is my tell.If you think there will be big changes in US tax and economic policy, you'd be selling by now.The reversing of the Trump tax cut will put the equity markets in free-fall, because dividends once payed to shareholders will be levied by the government.What most people don't realize is that half of all profits from the S&P500 companies are payed to share holders, so If the gov't is going to take more, shareholders get less.Huge dividend cuts will crush the market.Lower corporate profits exacerbate a sell off. 

Good catch Rich, most car mechanics overlook the fact that only the US a stock exchange. Damn olof ought to stick to his beans and bangers until London figures out it's own stock exchange.

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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

I have often been fooled when trying to predict the outcome of US elections. I will say this, I am encouraged by the fact that a lot of R supporters have pretty much given up on trying to get the dotard re-elected and are focusing on doing as much as they can to attempt to save their Senate majority.

They don't need to help dotard, sleepy joe is in his basement whileTrump is doing rallies all day, nearly everyday.A workaholic he's a driven man, sucks to be his opponent and after the Russia gate /Impeachment he's got something to prove.Quick side note,Is dotard a play on the word retard?

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2 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Quick side note,Is dotard a play on the word retard?

It was made famous when Kim Jong Un used it during a dispute with Trump. It is a real word.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dotard

5 minutes ago, richravizza said:

They don't need to help dotard, sleepy joe is in his basement whileTrump is doing rallies all day

Like I say, I have a poor record on predicting this stuff. The election seems to be Joe's to lose. All he really needs to do is avoid pissing large numbers of people off. You know, like by calling them "deplorables" or something. Nearly a third of the votes have already been cast from what I hear. It may be best for Joe to keep his head down and just let Trump make more errors. Doing rallies is not going to change any minds. Those people already are voting for him.

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35 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Because you gave me a like I'll try to be non critical in my dissenting with the logic of the GOP.

1. trump has propped the markets up with $6 trillion in borrowing over the last four years. So equity markets were primed and primed again by federal stimulus.

2. spacer.png

3. McConnell has said he will not support any other relief bills. Biden and Pelosi have both supported another $2.5 trillion. Which is supported by US FED economists.

4. Wall street odds-makers have already priced a dem victory into the markets and the S&P is within a couple points of an all time record.

#1 no true conservative likes the National debt or want to add more, so to your point Trump is an utter failure, agreed. I find it amazing that its an issue and adding 2.5T or more could help that situation.

This is back when it was 1.8T

What kind of an odds maker can see the S&P at all time highs? An S&P without massive tax increases, get my drift.Love the slip of the tongue "0bama apologist" @ 4:30 

Fun fact.  Old joe has been in Government for 19% of the entire history of the USofA.

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55 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

It was made famous when Kim Jong Un used it during a dispute with Trump. It is a real word.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dotard

Like I say, I have a poor record on predicting this stuff. The election seems to be Joe's to lose. All he really needs to do is avoid pissing large numbers of people off. You know, like by calling them "deplorables" or something. Nearly a third of the votes have already been cast from what I hear. It may be best for Joe to keep his head down and just let Trump make more errors. Doing rallies is not going to change any minds. Those people already are voting for him.

Thanks for the definition, true that. So in the words of Obama himself "never underestimate the ability of Joe to fuck things up"

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12 minutes ago, richravizza said:

#1 no true conservative likes the National debt or want to add more

Agreed.  No true conservative says he wants to add to the debt.  But conservative presidents do, in fact, add to the debt far more often than democrats do.  So there is an issue of either dishonesty or incompetence there.

Quote

Old joe has been in Government for 19% of the entire history of the USofA.

So he has far more experience than Trump.  Good point.

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The stock market would love a Democratic sweep in November

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

Two simple facts as above. trump has been clear that he wants a all out war of  annihilation against China. He has stated that he wants to end all "dependence on China trade". He will view reelection as a green light for more war, more tariffs and zero compromise. Only Biden will tackle the Covid factor in the economy just as China has done. In the last quarter China's GDP grew at 4.9%

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(edited)
3 hours ago, billvon said:

In 2008 I got a free consultation from a CPA at Etrade.  Great, I thought.  He told me "if the Democrats win, sell everything you own by January.  They will tax more and the economy will collapse.  Companies will leave the US.  The dollar will tank."  I considered it, and decided not to.  From January 2009 to June 2010 I doubled my money in the market.

So I will take what you said with as much seriousness as I took his advice.

You got exactly what you paid for, in all my years of investing I have never met an adviser that would recommend selling everything, thanks for that gem.I'm not giving you or anyone financial advice.But I'd recommend this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bcn9OwD0UU

here's another doozy all about lies.

 

Edited by richravizza

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1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

The market is going to tank by 1st quarter.   Biden will likely get the blame, since he will be in office.   Even had covid19 never appeared, the market is way too high.  When interest rates are pretty much nothing, that's what you get.  JMO, of course.

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5 hours ago, richravizza said:

Because of your nationality I'll try to be non partisan in my reasoning.

The US stock market is my tell.If you think there will be big changes in US tax and economic policy, you'd be selling by now.The reversing of the Trump tax cut will put the equity markets in free-fall, because dividends once payed to shareholders will be levied by the government.What most people don't realize is that half of all profits from the S&P500 companies are payed to share holders, so If the gov't is going to take more, shareholders get less.Huge dividend cuts will crush the market.Lower corporate profits exacerbate a sell off. 

As others have said the stock market has already priced in a Dem victory, as they can see the polls too. Now whether the polls are accurate is another thing, but your point that there are many "hidden" Trump supporters the polls are missing has no evidence for it.

The link contains more details. Pollsters don't count "number of Trump bumper stickers" or "biden/harris" yard signs, you know?

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(edited)

And if you use the stock market to predict the winner, how do the stock market traders know who's going to win? Do they have polls of their own?

Even if the big institutional investors had some kind of access to private information, the likely election winner is NOT private information, it's public information because it's the public who decides the winner.

Edited by olofscience

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26 minutes ago, olofscience said:

And if you use the stock market to predict the winner, how do the stock market traders know who's going to win? Do they have polls of their own?

Even if the big institutional investors had some kind of access to private information, the likely election winner is NOT private information, it's public information because it's the public who decides the winner.

The Electoral College is perfectly capable of disregarding the wishes of the citizens, and the Supreme Court has proven happy to be its partisan enabler. 

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(edited)
26 minutes ago, kallend said:

The Electoral College is perfectly capable of disregarding the wishes of the citizens, and the Supreme Court has proven happy to be its partisan enabler. 

Sure, but they're not really sources of information BEFORE the election. At least, in terms of generating information that can be used to predict the winner.

Richravizza uses the stock market as a source of "information", but doesn't really ask where they get their information from. I doubt companies' quarterly financial results contain much information on who might win.

Edited by olofscience

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11 hours ago, billvon said:

He's shown an understanding of how to avoid getting it, which honestly is more important in a president.

Which doctor would you want as your doctor?  The doctor who is always getting infections because he doesn't understand basic hygiene or health, or the one who is almost always healthy because he's anal about handwashing, sanitary procedure and diet/exercise?

Well, the head of the federal government's "Corona Task Force" has an outbreak in his office.

Several staffers have tested positive.

So what does he do?
Follow the CDC recommendations?
Quarantine & isolate?
Do everything he can to reduce the spread?

Of course not.
He declares himself 'essential' and continues on the campaign trail.

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7 hours ago, headoverheels said:

The market is going to tank by 1st quarter.   Biden will likely get the blame, since he will be in office.   Even had covid19 never appeared, the market is way too high.  When interest rates are pretty much nothing, that's what you get.  JMO, of course.

There is a old saying in the markets. You don't fight the FED. Which is course the Federal Reserve. The reason for that is the Fed has unlimited powers of stimulus. In the last two years the Fed has pumped money into the economy. First because of trump's foray into war with China: Trump slams Fed, says trade war forced China to use stimulus plan.

Then the Fed had to stimulate the economy again because of trump's bungling of Covid.: What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?

So the Fed has been forced to pour another $2.3 trillion because of the "missteps" of trump's covid response. That would bring total US stimulus during the trump mandate. To a total of $8.3 trillion in total debt. Because the US government itself has borrowed $6 T.

With that much cash flowing into the economy its almost, remember almost, impossible for the market to collapse. Now I actually agree with you.. That is the reason why there are  now  Amount of global debt with negative yields balloons to $15 trillion. Every investor needs to understand that first link in this paragraph and the entire concept of negative yields. Investors buying negative yield bonds are not stupid. They are savers that neither trust gold nor current market valuations.

Having said that the US FED can still stave off recession, for a while. I'm not so arrogant to suggest how long.

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2 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Well, the head of the federal government's "Corona Task Force" has an outbreak in his office.

Several staffers have tested positive.

So what does he do?
Follow the CDC recommendations?
Quarantine & isolate?
Do everything he can to reduce the spread?

Of course not.
He declares himself 'essential' and continues on the campaign trail.

Hey, for an election whats another 30-50 cases. Just goes to show there is little separation between trump and Pence. How little respect of common sense.

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