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Westerly

COVID is on the rise in all 50 states

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Every state is seeing an uptick. Without question we are at the start of a 2nd wave. So who wants to guess how many cases per day we will get up to before we go back to lockdown? Or at least how many before people realize, hmm maybe COVID is in fact on the rise again? My guess, 120,000 per day. We got to 80k last time, but people are getting more dense by the minute so we have to account for that.

Edited by Westerly

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10 minutes ago, Westerly said:

Every state is seeing an uptick. Without question we are at the start of a 2nd wave. So who wants to guess how many cases per day we will get up to before we go back to lockdown? Or at least how many before people realize, hmm maybe COVID is in fact on the rise again? My guess, 120,000 per day. We got to 80k last time, but people are getting more dense by the minute so we have to account for that.

A lot more.  People tend to care more about death rate, and
1) That lags cases by 2-3 weeks
2) It gets lower with time as we learn what works and what doesn't in terms of treating COVID-19.  So more cases = same number of deaths.

That being said, the uptick in deaths just started.  Today was the first day with over 1000 deaths since late September, and the average is rising.

 

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27 minutes ago, Westerly said:

Without question we are at the start of a 2nd wave.

With respect, you guys never left the 1st wave:

image.png.5bff6a20ff31d24e36cb114b5a4934e9.png

I understand the cultural issues at play that were always going to make the US a difficult one to get under control, but this is still damning.

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17 minutes ago, mistercwood said:

With respect, you guys never left the 1st wave:

Yeah, you can argue that, but other than some good "we're better than you" there's not much utility in it.  That graph you posted is useful - because it shows times when mitigations were effective and when they weren't.  The first decrease coincides with the big shutdowns.  The next increase is the reopening.  The next decrease is a combination of some more-targeted shutdown (once we had a sense of what's effective and what's not) followed by yet another election's-coming relaxation of restrictions and flu season.  If you want to call them "somewhat sinusoidal reversals of previous rates" to avoid saying "wave" that's fine.

There is some evidence that this wave is going to be much worse in terms of infection rates but only slightly worse in terms of death rates.  Still, that puts us going into Thanksgiving seeing 2000-3000 deaths a day.

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18 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yeah, you can argue that, but other than some good "we're better than you" there's not much utility in it. 

That wasn't my conscious intention, but now that you've highlighted it, fair enough, point taken. Agreed on your other points.

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(edited)
23 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yeah, you can argue that, but other than some good "we're better than you" there's not much utility in it.  That graph you posted is useful - because it shows times when mitigations were effective and when they weren't.  The first decrease coincides with the big shutdowns.  The next increase is the reopening.  The next decrease is a combination of some more-targeted shutdown (once we had a sense of what's effective and what's not) followed by yet another election's-coming relaxation of restrictions and flu season.  If you want to call them "somewhat sinusoidal reversals of previous rates" to avoid saying "wave" that's fine.

There is some evidence that this wave is going to be much worse in terms of infection rates but only slightly worse in terms of death rates.  Still, that puts us going into Thanksgiving seeing 2000-3000 deaths a day.

It's almost as if we know that shutdowns, masks and social distancing work, yet we always seem to forget that leading to a swift remembrance a month later, but with 40,000 more deaths than the month prior. I suspect by the time this is all over every single person in America will personally know someone who got extremely sick or died from Covid and at that point it will be hard to look back and say 'yea, ignoring all the doctors and just saying fuck it was the right thing to do'.

On the other hand, the EU currently has it worse than America. They have more cases a day than we do right now, which is strange considering they mostly got it right. I suspect maybe too many Euros watching that Trump news and getting the wrong ideas.

Edited by Westerly

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10 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

'tis. For a change the nation is going to hell elsewhere than here. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/#!

Until tomorrow probably but today the bird and bunny people rule!

Oregon decline.png

Hi Joe,

Uh, I don't think so:  https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/local/coronavirus/2020/10/23/oregon-coronavirus-updates-weekly-confirmed-covid-19-cases-decrease-slightly/3733338001/

We set a new state record today.

Jerry Baumchen

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6 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Yes, well, I supplied a pretty graph, honey (thanks for permission Wendy!). So there!

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(edited)
On 10/21/2020 at 10:46 PM, billvon said:

People tend to care more about death rate, and
 

 

I dont understand how we are so far into this thing already and people dont understand that death rate directly trails infections. As in infections go up, deaths go up. How that is even a hard concept to grasp is beyond me. I feel like that was common knowledge before COVID even existed. More people get something bad, more people die from it. Duh. So often we hear 'COVID cases are on the rise but deaths are still low'. Well no shit, people dont die instantly from it, but if more people get infected more people are going to die. Grow a brain people...

Edited by Westerly

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3 hours ago, Westerly said:

I dont understand how we are so far into this thing already and people dont understand that death rate directly trails infections.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his entire political worldview depends on him not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair (misquoted probably)

 

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13 minutes ago, billvon said:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his entire political worldview depends on him not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair (misquoted probably)

 

Meh. People are idiots.

Shortsighted and gullible. 
They believe what they want to, not what's real (especially when reality is not fun). 

I know people that have decided that they are 'tired' and 'done with' the virus.

Unfortunately, the virus isn't done with us.

 

We're setting records for new cases, hospitalizations and deaths here in Wisconsin. There was a bit of a hiccup in the reporting last weekend. The DHS did an upgrade of the system, and it was shut down for a couple days. The following days had a bit of chaos as the reports caught up. Some stuff (total tests was one) were all reported the first day back. Some stuff took a couple days to catch up (positive tests had the 'missing' days reported spread out over a couple days). It kind of screwed up the averages for a few days.

Doesn't change the fact that we are now seeing new positive tests over 4k per day. Hospitalizations are approaching 200 per day. Deaths are overall not catching up (percent of cases ending in death is now below 1%) but are increasing too. 

It's getting ugly and will get worse. 

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his entire political worldview depends on him not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair (misquoted probably)

 

The quote is, I believe:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Note that "understanding" is a gerund and takes a possessive. </professor mode>

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