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billvon

Looks like the third wave is here

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I've been waiting to see the COVID infection rate bounce from schools reopening/labor day parties/Trump's bizarre insistence that "the worst has passed" and we can reopen.  And it looks like it's here.

Infection rates have been trending down since Jul 24th.  The 7-day average peaked at 68K new cases per day then has been declining as cities and towns once again shut down.  It reached a minimum of 35K on Sep 8th.

Typically new cases trail exposure by 2-14 days (nominal 5) and reporting can add 0-5 more days to that.  So with schools reopening the first week of September and/or Labor Day, and with Labor Day parties, we'd expect to see a rise starting anywhere from Sept 14-24.  And as of Sept 18th we are seeing a rise.  The 7 day average is up to 40K, a 5K increase.  (All numbers from Worldometer)

Deaths trail that peak by 7-14 days, but the peak in deaths will be lower this time because we now have more experience with the disease (the "happy hypoxic" regimen, dexamethazone.)

This of course is a huge problem.  We are going to hit flu season in about a month, and all the same factors that make it more likely to get influenza will make it more likely to get COVID-19.  If we hit flu season with an excess of infections the problem will be exponentially worse, due to how diseases spread.

Then after that we will hit Thanksgiving, where people will travel long distances to be with each other.  Then Christmas - same thing.

If we went into these high risk events (flu season, holidays) with low infection rates they would likely be manageable.  But if the trend we see now continues it's going to be a disastrous fall and winter.

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(edited)
1 hour ago, piisfish said:

35k daily is a low ?

Yup. Lowest since early July. 

In Wisconsin, we've seen record high postive tests 4 of the past 8 days. 7 day average is around 1500. 
Yesterday (reported today) was over 2500.

Percent postive is also stupid high. Yesterday was over 20%, averages over the last week have been around 15%.

They opened up the University of Wisconsin, down in Madison, back in the beginning of Sept. 3 weeks later, they closed in person classes. At first they wanted all the underclassmen to simply 'go home'. Given that the class cancellation was because of a huge spike in positives (the county they are located in saw daily postives nearly 500 - they accounted for well over 30% of positives for several days), the reaction was...
Not good. 
Everyone outside of Madison basically told them how stupid they were for sending infected kids back to their hometowns.
After the reaction, the University decided to have the students quarantine in the dorms.

About the only positive (that isn't a virus test) that is showing up is that deaths aren't following the case increases. We're currently around 1.4% fatalities. Well below the national & worldwide average of ~3%.

As Bill noted above, they are gaining experience in treating cases, some treatments are showing success.
It's also due in part to the fact that the biggest age group testing positive is the younger crowd. They don't get as sick, nor do they die as much. Doesn't stop them from passing it on to older folks, though.

Edit to add:

The numbers I'm quoting come from Wisconsin Dept of Health Services (DHS).
They post daily around 2pm (Central).
Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/DHSWI/

Edited by wolfriverjoe

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4 hours ago, kallend said:

US will hit 200k deaths early next week (according to Google's tracking).

 

For some context, 185,924 US deaths occurred in the European/Atlantic theater of operations in WW2, 1942-45.

That’s pretty much the entire marine corpse. Imagine if an incident took out the entire marine corpse, their would be no doubt the US would have a unified response. 

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6 hours ago, billvon said:

I've been waiting to see the COVID infection rate bounce from schools reopening/labor day parties/Trump's bizarre insistence that "the worst has passed" and we can reopen.  And it looks like it's here.

Infection rates have been trending down since Jul 24th.  The 7-day average peaked at 68K new cases per day then has been declining as cities and towns once again shut down.  It reached a minimum of 35K on Sep 8th.

Typically new cases trail exposure by 2-14 days (nominal 5) and reporting can add 0-5 more days to that.  So with schools reopening the first week of September and/or Labor Day, and with Labor Day parties, we'd expect to see a rise starting anywhere from Sept 14-24.  And as of Sept 18th we are seeing a rise.  The 7 day average is up to 40K, a 5K increase.  (All numbers from Worldometer)

Deaths trail that peak by 7-14 days, but the peak in deaths will be lower this time because we now have more experience with the disease (the "happy hypoxic" regimen, dexamethazone.)

This of course is a huge problem.  We are going to hit flu season in about a month, and all the same factors that make it more likely to get influenza will make it more likely to get COVID-19.  If we hit flu season with an excess of infections the problem will be exponentially worse, due to how diseases spread.

Then after that we will hit Thanksgiving, where people will travel long distances to be with each other.  Then Christmas - same thing.

If we went into these high risk events (flu season, holidays) with low infection rates they would likely be manageable.  But if the trend we see now continues it's going to be a disastrous fall and winter.

How do they determine "waves"? Seems to me this is still the first thats been epically mismanaged.

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5 hours ago, kallend said:

US will hit 200k deaths early next week (according to Google's tracking).

 

For some context, 185,924 US deaths occurred in the European/Atlantic theater of operations in WW2, 1942-45.

John, the number deaths are simply awful. But it's not the same thing and the demographics are vastly different. It's like when people say something was like the power of ten Hiroshima bombs. Better way's of being disgusted are on offer.

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19 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Hiroshima

Hi Joe,

Completely off topic; but, here goes.  I have made three trips to Japan ( 77 - 81 ) but am not an 'expert' under any definition.

What bugs me is when I hear Hiroshima pronounced:  Hirosh Ima

It is:  Hiro Shima

Or it could be pronounced Hiro Jima; similar to Iwo Jima.  Shima - Jima meaning island.  Iwo Jima means sulfur island.  I'm not sure what Hiro means.

Or, I could be completely wrong; my, now 80-yr old mind is no longer perfect.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Jerry Baumchen

 

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7 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Completely off topic; but, here goes.  I have made three trips to Japan ( 77 - 81 ) but am not an 'expert' under any definition.

What bugs me is when I hear Hiroshima pronounced:  Hirosh Ima

It is:  Hiro Shima

Or it could be pronounced Hiro Jima; similar to Iwo Jima.  Shima - Jima meaning island.  Iwo Jima means sulfur island.  I'm not sure what Hiro means.

Or, I could be completely wrong; my, now 80-yr old mind is no longer perfect.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Jerry Baumchen

 

I just did a bit of experimenting with Google Translate:

Hiroshima in Japanese: 広島

Translation: 広 -> wide, 島 -> island

Google's pronunciation in Japanese sounds like  Hiro-Seema, but in English sounds like Hiro-Shima

 Click on the speaker icons:

 https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=ja&tl=en&text=広島

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18 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Completely off topic; but, here goes.  I have made three trips to Japan ( 77 - 81 ) but am not an 'expert' under any definition.

What bugs me is when I hear Hiroshima pronounced:  Hirosh Ima

It is:  Hiro Shima

Or it could be pronounced Hiro Jima; similar to Iwo Jima.  Shima - Jima meaning island.  Iwo Jima means sulfur island.  I'm not sure what Hiro means.

Or, I could be completely wrong; my, now 80-yr old mind is no longer perfect.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Jerry Baumchen

 

I'm currently at a McDonald's in Hachinohe Japan. I asked a local. It's pronounced either way here.

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15 minutes ago, ryoder said:

I just did a bit of experimenting with Google Translate:

Hiroshima in Japanese: 広島

Translation: 広 -> wide, 島 -> island

Google's pronunciation in Japanese sounds like  Hiro-Seema, but in English sounds like Hiro-Shima

 Click on the speaker icons:

 https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=ja&tl=en&text=広島

Hi Robert,

Thanks; I can always count on you.

Jerry Baumchen

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2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Completely off topic; but, here goes.  I have made three trips to Japan ( 77 - 81 ) but am not an 'expert' under any definition.

What bugs me is when I hear Hiroshima pronounced:  Hirosh Ima

It is:  Hiro Shima

Or it could be pronounced Hiro Jima; similar to Iwo Jima.  Shima - Jima meaning island.  Iwo Jima means sulfur island.  I'm not sure what Hiro means.

Or, I could be completely wrong; my, now 80-yr old mind is no longer perfect.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Jerry Baumchen

 

Then the American pronunciation of Kawasaki must drive you crazy.

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(edited)

3rd wave? dude, you're off your rocker, we havent even had a 2nd wave. we have just been in a splurge of 1 continuous wave that only just very recently subsided. also, in other news the sun is yellow. of course the numbers are going to go up. how is that not common knowledge? mitigating efforts only work when you keep doing them. when everything starts reopening because 'we're doing great' the numbers go back up. a 10 year old could understand that. at this point people are tired of staying indoors, the economy is completely destroyed, and people are just done dealing with it. many/ most people have adopted the strategy of luck. they just hope they dont die if they get it and if they do then they do. that's the current national strategy of dealing with covid.

Edited by Westerly
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19 hours ago, tonyhays said:

How do they determine "waves"?

If we see a peak and a decline, that's a wave.  We had the first one peak around April 9th at about 32,000.  Then new infections per day declined to 21K.  And everyone celebrated and said "woohoo!  pandemic over!" and started partying.  Then new cases increased to 69K around Jul 26 - the "second wave."  Then additional shutdowns got that down to 35K.

Now we are seeing the beginnings of a third wave caused by additional reopenings.

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(edited)
52 minutes ago, billvon said:

If we see a peak and a decline, that's a wave.  We had the first one peak around April 9th at about 32,000.  Then new infections per day declined to 21K.  And everyone celebrated and said "woohoo!  pandemic over!" and started partying.  Then new cases increased to 69K around Jul 26 - the "second wave."  Then additional shutdowns got that down to 35K.

Now we are seeing the beginnings of a third wave caused by additional reopenings.

yawn, it's just all one wave. Remember flatten the curve? yea, that never really happened. D- for effort and results on that one. and yea, the numbers are going to keep going up and down because people are too dumb to realize that saying hey the infections are 'only' 30,000 per day, time to go live life normally results in the infections going right back to where they were before. it will be a wave over and over until about a year after a vaccine is released. but at this point its all normalized. seeing people disappear from work every week into the hospital is expected. its like start the week off with 'alright, who's not able to come into work this week because of covid"? that's kind of the standard monday at most companies these days.

Edited by Westerly

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