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Hypocrisy of the left

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11 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Trump and his cronies have finally succeeded. They have brought (and WILL bring) untold misery to this country. You probably heard the news today that the GDP (gross domestic product) has fallen by 33% since the start of the pandemic. 

To compare that to something else, at the height of the Great Depression it fell about 14%. 

This information is incorrect on so many levels. Please don't parrot what other news sources are saying that other news sources say. Now, I'm not going to do the research for you - you do it and then tell us why you're wrong.  

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(edited)
14 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

This information is incorrect on so many levels. Please don't parrot what other news sources are saying that other news sources say. Now, I'm not going to do the research for you - you do it and then tell us why you're wrong.  

You're correct he was wrong since the start of the year the US economy has decreased 37.9%

"Current‑dollar GDP decreased 34.3 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.41 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (table 1 and table 3)...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent."

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is your source of accurate and objective data about the nation's economy. BEA is an agency of the Department of Commerce.

What We Do

BEA's economists produce some of the world's most closely watched statistics, including U.S. gross domestic product, better known as GDP. We do state and local numbers, too, plus foreign trade and investment stats and industry data.

Edited by Phil1111

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8 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

You're correct he was wrong since the start of the year the US economy has decreased 37.9%

"Current‑dollar GDP decreased 34.3 percent, or $2.15 trillion, i

Not disputing the results for this year - that's close enough to not quibble about (you know, no need to argue over a few billion). The real question is - why is this not a reflection of the Great Depression?  When did GDP reporting even start? When did QTR GDP reporting start? What was that actual dollar amount back then and how does it relate today? Why does WWII "appear" to be more successful than last year's economic reports? https://www.statista.com/statistics/996758/rea-gdp-growth-united-states-1930-2019/  The GDP is a measure of value produced over a year, when the percent change is reported each quarter, it’s a forecast of what the growth or shrink would be "if" this quarterly rate persisted for the whole year. However, we cannot simply multiply the quarterly rate by four, because there are other factors involved.

Sorry to sound mysterious & shit - but, I'm leaving in about an hour and will be gone for a couple of weeks. Be safe. 

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2 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

Not disputing the results for this year - that's close enough to not quibble about (you know, no need to argue over a few billion). The real question is - why is this not a reflection of the Great Depression?  When did GDP reporting even start? When did QTR GDP reporting start? What was that actual dollar amount back then and how does it relate today? Why does WWII "appear" to be more successful than last year's economic reports? https://www.statista.com/statistics/996758/rea-gdp-growth-united-states-1930-2019/  The GDP is a measure of value produced over a year, when the percent change is reported each quarter, it’s a forecast of what the growth or shrink would be "if" this quarterly rate persisted for the whole year. However, we cannot simply multiply the quarterly rate by four, because there are other factors involved.

Sorry to sound mysterious & shit - but, I'm leaving in about an hour and will be gone for a couple of weeks. Be safe. 

There is a term called Real dollars Constant or real dollars are terms describing income after adjustment for inflation. The Dictionary of Business and Economics defines constant dollar values and real income as shown below. Constant-dollar value (also called real-dollar value) is a value expressed in dollars adjusted for purchasing power.

But that idea is unnecessary because GDP is the measure of all goods and services. The reason why the US economy has not felt the effect of the drop in GDP is because although GDP has dropped by $2.336 trillion the total stimulus budgeted has been about $3 trillion. That includes debt and FED stimulus.

So the effect on the economy has been more or less neutral. Now of course the distribution has been very unequal. Some companies and individuals have made off like bandits. Most who got the weekly payments did ok. Some got nothing.

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On 7/31/2020 at 10:28 PM, RobertMBlevins said:

That's for sure, or as Smokey Robinson once said, "I second that emotion.'

The reason the WW2 stats are skewed is because the nation was cranking out mass quantities for the war. The reason it dropped after the war was because much of that stopped when the war ended. But notice that we've never even come close to the 34-37% drop that is happening now, and will probably get worse. 

Like the few months that passed after the stock market crash in 1929, you aren't feeling the effects of that drop. 

YET. But you will, and sooner than you think. One of the reasons you aren't feeling the effects right now is because so far...the US government and deficit spending has artificially propped up the economy. But like the eye of a hurricane passing over you, this calm will not last long. A GDP drop nearly triple the worst that happened during the Great Depression will certainly have an effect. Things are not going to get better. They are going to get much worse, and by the time they do, the US Government will only be able to help people and prop up the economy to a certain extent. Even they can't go on forever as they are doing now. 

If you twisted my arm behind my back and demanded I take a guess on the economy for next year, I would say these things:

  • Many small-to-medium size companies will go bankrupt, and their employees be thrown out of work. 
  • Many large corporations that depend on steady consumer spending, or who sell extremely expensive durable goods, (Boeing, for example) will be forced to do mass layoffs. 
  • The stock market will undoubtedly drop, but I couldn't tell you how much, or how far it will go before stabilizing. 
  • Infrastructure and road repairs will once again (like the 2008 recession) go into the tank because states will have no money remaining to do them. 
  • Housing prices may drop. 

The number of homeless people in America will increase by a great deal. Double, certainly. Triple, maybe.

If, after all this, you are considering opening yourself up a new business...I suggest you and just your family members (so you don't have to pay high minimum wages)...open a shop that sells really cheap food. Hamburgers and shakes. Or something that most people will eat, and mostly American-style. CHEAP. The people will line up for a block and you will be busy every single day. 

Sorry to disagree with you. While you're right about a recession and IMO 10% possibility of a depression. The differences now are several.

1. The US FED has many more tools to use to ensure the economy keeps moving ahead. In the 1930's there was food support programs and not much more. The US Recovery Act, the 1933 New Deal, are both fly poop on the window to what has occurred in the last year.

2. The US is still the world's reserve currency which gives it a natural stimulus advantage. Its slowly loosing its advantage but China under a communist government can't be a challenger.

2. While the increase in US debt is a very serious concern it still ranks well as compared to its G-7 competitors.

3. The US has taxation latitude because of the recent tax cuts enacted by trump.

"The weighted average statutory rate has remained higher than the simple average over this period. Prior to U.S. tax reform in 2017, the United States was largely responsible for keeping the weighted average so high, given its relatively high tax rate, as well as its significant contribution to global GDP. Figure 2 shows the significant impact the change in the U.S. corporate rate had on the worldwide weighted average. The weighted average statutory corporate income tax rate has declined from 46.67 percent in 1980 to 26.30 percent in 2019, representing a 44 percent reduction over the 39 years surveyed."

IMO the drag of debt will impact taxpayers for a decade or two while the debt should be repaid. In the event that dosn't occour the interest will be a drag.

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5 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

IMO the drag of debt will impact taxpayers for a decade or two while the debt should be repaid. In the event that dosn't occour the interest will be a drag.

Hi Phil,

For a number of years now, I have felt that an overall ( everybody, no exceptions ) tax increase of 1/2 % and dedicated ONLY to the national debt would help us out of this mess.  Do it for 10-15 yrs and we would look a lot better financially.

IMO a 1/2 % increase would barely be noticed.

I am not an economist and I could be completely wrong in my thinking.

Jerry Baumchen

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20 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Phil,

For a number of years now, I have felt that an overall ( everybody, no exceptions ) tax increase of 1/2 % and dedicated ONLY to the national debt would help us out of this mess.  Do it for 10-15 yrs and we would look a lot better financially.

IMO a 1/2 % increase would barely be noticed.

I am not an economist and I could be completely wrong in my thinking.

Jerry Baumchen

I'm not in disagreement with this - IF you can somehow guarantee that spending wont increase and eat this up like it did social security.

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7 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

US debt, as a percentage of GDP, or per capita, has reached an all-time high and is about to go much higher. 

Sure, you can try raising taxes (and this is a CERTAINTY) in order to pay down this debt. 

But if the GDP goes into the tank because of the pandemic, much of it due simply to people not working...it is a recipe for trouble. I heard these same assurances prior to the housing crash, and they didn't hold much water either. The hard truth is that President Trump inherited an economy that Barack Obama not only brought back from the brink of disaster...but managed a pretty good recovery...and then Trump tossed the baby out with the bath water with his foolish and vindictive policies. 

Are you any better off since Trump took office? Do you believe everything will be 'just fine' by this time next year? You shouldn't. If the GDP should actually fall by more than 30% by the end of the year, only a fool would believe this will not bring financial disaster to both working families and the companies/corporations they work FOR. The Federal government will only be able to prop up the economy by running the printing press for SO long...and then inflation will take over. Couple this with mass unemployment and see what happens to millions of American families. 

As that guy said in the movie, The Outlaw Josey Wales:

 

Without the pandemic - we would have been pretty prosperous.

Hillary couldn't have stopped the economic crash we are headed for.

Not even your exulted Obama could have quashed the downturn in the economy due to the Rona.

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Phil,

For a number of years now, I have felt that an overall ( everybody, no exceptions ) tax increase of 1/2 % and dedicated ONLY to the national debt would help us out of this mess.  Do it for 10-15 yrs and we would look a lot better financially.

IMO a 1/2 % increase would barely be noticed.

I am not an economist and I could be completely wrong in my thinking.

Jerry Baumchen

Currently neither political party seems worried about deficits or national debt. When the economy is growing the government shouldn't be running deficits. As it did during the last two years of Obama and all of the trump administration. Let alone trillion dollar deficits(trump years). Spending like drunken sailors comes to mind. Once again "trickle down economics" was proven not to work.

As far as any suggestions that anyone could have avoided the economic results from covid. Or done a better job than trump. All you have to do is look at the EU, Australia, NZ, China, Canada, etc. They are already exiting the pandemic while the US is still mired in the first wave.

Infections will prevent recovery and holding your breath for "Warp Speed vaccine" salvation is like betting it all on "No Show" in the eighth at Woodbine.

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1 hour ago, turtlespeed said:

Without the pandemic - we would have been pretty prosperous.

Hillary couldn't have stopped the economic crash we are headed for.

Not even your exulted Obama could have quashed the downturn in the economy due to the Rona.

Both would have done a much better job at containing it, and thus seen less of a hit on the economy.  Look at New Zealand.

 

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33 minutes ago, billvon said:

Both would have done a much better job at containing it, and thus seen less of a hit on the economy.  Look at New Zealand.

 

While I don't doubt that either or both would have done a better job than Trump, I'm starting to seriously wonder how much better they could have done.

 

It seems like a disgustingly large percentage of the population has the emotional development of a three year old.

Ask them to stay home?
Ask them to wear a mask?
Ask them to take reasonable precautions to help prevent the spread of this?

They throw a fucking temper tantrum, attack store workers, spit on people, and generally act like selfish little brats.

Pretending it's about 'their rights'. 
Pretending it's all a 'hoax'
Falling for the Russian propaganda that advocates opening up everything (and continuing the spread of the virus).

While the 'rise of Trump' has given these sorts of people a lot of validation, they were still out there before him.

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8 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

While I don't doubt that either or both would have done a better job than Trump, I'm starting to seriously wonder how much better they could have done.

Not by much.  But it doesn't take much.  Starting NPI's five days earlier cuts the death rate by over 50%.  Getting just 10% more people to wear masks, distance, practice good hygeine etc would get Re below 1.  Getting a massive contact tracing system in place would not only greatly reduce the effects of the disease but would give hundreds of thousands of people jobs.

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14 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

While I don't doubt that either or both would have done a better job than Trump, I'm starting to seriously wonder how much better they could have done.

Leadership matters. It is not everything, but there is a huge difference between a population being led in a positive direction and one being led negatively. Americans are not actually exceptional people, they are just like everyone else. America has been affected by Covid-19 more than almost any other nation. Just the same as Brazil has. Because again, leadership matters in any society.

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2 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Leadership matters. It is not everything, but there is a huge difference between a population being led in a positive direction and one being led negatively. Americans are not actually exceptional people, they are just like everyone else. America has been affected by Covid-19 more than almost any other nation. Just the same as Brazil has. Because again, leadership matters in any society.

Hi Ken,

Nicely put.  IMO this is the essence of the problem with Trump. 

Obama was not an economist, he was a community organizer.  But, he brought in people he felt knew much more than he did & he trusted them.  They schooled him and he lead us out of the mess of '08.  Was he perfect, of course not.

Trump, at first brought in some fairly competent people ( Rex Tillerson comes to mind ), but they were axed; mostly due to a perceived disloyalty.

When loyalty is ahead of leading the nation, you get the disaster of Trump.

Leadership matters.

Jerry Baumchen

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2 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Currently neither political party seems worried about deficits or national debt. When the economy is growing the government shouldn't be running deficits. As it did during the last two years of Obama and all of the trump administration. Let alone trillion dollar deficits(trump years). Spending like drunken sailors comes to mind. Once again "trickle down economics" was proven not to work.

As far as any suggestions that anyone could have avoided the economic results from covid. Or done a better job than trump. All you have to do is look at the EU, Australia, NZ, China, Canada, etc. They are already exiting the pandemic while the US is still mired in the first wave.

Infections will prevent recovery and holding your breath for "Warp Speed vaccine" salvation is like betting it all on "No Show" in the eighth at Woodbine.

Reaganomics was "voodoo economics" back in 1980, and has been ever since.

I'm not sure the EU, Oz, NZ etc. can be said to be exiting just yet, but they are certainly managing the pandemic far far better than the US is.

Because leadership.

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5 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

I'm not buying this scenario one bit. Hillary Clinton was never President, so there's no way to say how she would have responded to the pandemic. Obama, not perfect, but a pretty level-headed guy, would have done better. Assumes facts not in evidence, as they say on Law and Order. 

But I can assure you their responses to the pandemic would have been better than a guy who tells you drinking or injecting antibacterial cleaners is a possible solution to the problem. 

You understand of course...that prior to Trump...presidents like Andrew Johnson (guy who took over after Lincoln was killed) and maybe Herbert Hoover were always near the top of the list as the worst US Presidents in history. When the votes come out again on that list, it is a certainty that Donald Trump will take the top spot. What did Obi-Wan Kenobi say in Star Wars?

 

The extent is the question, isn't it.

There is no proof, but I am leaning toward agreeing with you on the "better" job part.

 

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17 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

The extent is the question, isn't it.

There is no proof, but I am leaning toward agreeing with you on the "better" job part.

 

Without a doubt.  Trump's only salient goal has been to undo and defund and that means the people best capable of identifying and working through the initial stages of this who had done it before and knew what to do were all gone.

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MSNBC producer Ariana Pekary slams network as ‘cancer’ after quitting job

“This cancer risks human lives, even in the middle of a pandemic,” she wrote.

“The longer I was at MSNBC, the more I saw such choices — it’s practically baked in to the editorial process – and those decisions affect news content every day,” she continued. “Likewise, it’s taboo to discuss how the ratings scheme distorts content, or it’s simply taken for granted, because everyone in the commercial broadcast news industry is doing the exact same thing.”

Before the "but Fox" cries start they might all do it but MSNBC does it to their own peril.

https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/category/ratings/

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25 minutes ago, airdvr said:

MSNBC producer Ariana Pekary slams network as ‘cancer’ after quitting job

“This cancer risks human lives, even in the middle of a pandemic,” she wrote.

“The longer I was at MSNBC, the more I saw such choices — it’s practically baked in to the editorial process – and those decisions affect news content every day,” she continued. “Likewise, it’s taboo to discuss how the ratings scheme distorts content, or it’s simply taken for granted, because everyone in the commercial broadcast news industry is doing the exact same thing.”

Before the "but Fox" cries start they might all do it but MSNBC does it to their own peril.

https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/category/ratings/

Welcome back. So again, is there anything beyond deplorable you find in Trumps hope to delay the election?  For a bonus, are you flummoxed by his reversal on mail in ballots if Florida? 

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6 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Welcome back. So again, is there anything beyond deplorable you find in Trumps hope to delay the election?  For a bonus, are you flummoxed by his reversal on mail in ballots if Florida? 

I've reached a decision on my vote for POTUS.

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