Bloomberg: C19 Cases Still Stable as European Lockdowns Ease

[Guest]

What concerns me about this is there is always a seeming lag between changes, causes, and effects. If there is a sudden spike, it won't show up for weeks and if it's going to be a disaster, we may not see it until it's too late. But is the worst over now? Finally?

Kindly read the article before pigeoning, even if you deem the source unreliable. I'd also like to know if there are any peer studies which make similar observations, or even studies which counter this narrative. I want to be informed, not propagandized - thx.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/europe-s-coronavirus-spread-in-check-as-lockdowns-loosened

Edited May 21, 2020 by Guest

[nigel99 143]

4 hours ago, markharju said:

What concerns me about this is there is always a seeming lag between changes, causes, and effects. If there is a sudden spike, it won't show up for weeks and if it's going to be a disaster, we may not see it until it's too late. But is the worst over now? Finally?

Kindly read the article before pigeoning, even if you deem the source unreliable. I'd also like to know if there are any peer studies which make similar observations, or even studies which counter this narrative. I want to be informed, not propagandized - thx.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/europe-s-coronavirus-spread-in-check-as-lockdowns-loosened

I think Bloomberg is fairly balanced. Will be interesting to see France and Italy as both cultures are quite touchy And feely  (hugs and kisses).

Also saw an article that says it’s evolved and symptoms are taking longer to show up now

[Guest]

2 hours ago, nigel99 said:

I think Bloomberg is fairly balanced. Will be interesting to see France and Italy as both cultures are quite touchy And feely  (hugs and kisses).

Also saw an article that says it’s evolved and symptoms are taking longer to show up now

If what you're observing is true, it then follows (and I'm sure many have considered this before) that cultures which are perhaps cold and prickly and socially distant by default (Scandanavian countries? I'm not sure because I don't want to lean into stereotypes as radix causa) will potentially have less transmittal; which if true would explain why Sweden, for example, has fared better than other countries such as Italy. Can it really be so simple?

And if the other part about evolving is true, that perhaps means that it's mutating FAST. It may therefore end up changing into something benign and lose potency to do its dirty deeds in humans, and just go away as many before it have. As I remarked elsewhere, immunology is mind-boggling. One of the things I learned is that every single human being has all these bits of primordial DNA and RNA running around in us, with only an infinitesimal amount able to actually cause us harm. It's only when they mutate into something nasty or are somehow freshly introduced that we have cause to worry. We've seen it before, in how the European explorers unknowingly brought bugs with them for which the indigenous peoples in the New World had zero defenses. In this context, the herd immunity trope is logical.

[Guest]

Here are fresh stats for Germany - mh

Statistics from the Robert Koch Institute (Their version of CDC) – as of 20 May

176,752 COVID-19 cases and 8,147 deaths due to COVID-19 have been reported with 156,900 being recovered.

The cumulative incidence (cases per 100,000) of COVID-19 is currently highest in Bavaria (350), Baden-Wuerttemberg (308), Hamburg (274) and Saarland(273)

Most cases (67%) are between 15 and 59 years old. Women (52%) and men(48%) are almost equally affected.

People aged 70 years or older account for 86% of deaths but only 19% of all cases

Covid-19 outbreak among workers of a meat processing plant occurred in the districts of Straubing/Straubing-Bogen in Bavaria (7-day incidence is currently at 54 and 46 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively).  Control measures were implemented, including screening of all staff and contact tracing.

Another COVID-19 outbreak occurred in a meat processing plant in the district of Coesfeld in North Rhine-Westphalia, where the 7-day incidence is currently at 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The lifting of selected lock down measures was postponed to 18/05/2020. Processing of meat has restarted partially on 19/05/2020.

COVID-19 outbreaks continue to be reported in nursing homes and hospitals in the districts of Greiz and Sonneberg in Thuringia, and in the district of Coburg in Bavaria.

A further outbreak has been reported among workers of a meat processing plant in the district of Osnabrück (>90 positive among 278 workers tested thus far), many of whom were hired by the same subcontractor that hired workers for the plant in Coesfeld.  Isolation of cases and contacts as well as control measures in the plant were implemented.

In an outbreak at a German Parcel Service (DPD) branch in the district of Heinsberg, >80 cases of COVID-19 were detected among the approximately 400 workers, all of whom were tested. Extensive contact tracing is ongoing. The current 7-day COVID-19 incidence in this district is 26 cases/100,000 inhabitants.

In the city of St. Augustin in the district Rhein-Sieg-Kreis, a COVID-19 outbreak occurred among the 312 inhabitants of a refugee home.  On 19 May, the number of people infected was 165, of which 152 were residents and 13 employees. All infected residents are accommodated in separate parts of the housing and so far show only weak or no symptoms at all.

Hessen has 9,483 cases, 115 new  cases, 151 cases per day per 100,000 population, 368 cases  in the last 7 days per 100,000 and the state is at 5.9.

Rheinland Pfalz has 6,529 cases, 9 new cases, 160 cases per day per 100,000 population, 160 cases in the last 7 days per 100,00 and the state is at 3.9

Germany as a whole is at 4.8.

[kallend 1,623]

3 hours ago, nigel99 said:

 

Also saw an article that says it’s evolved and symptoms are taking longer to show up now

Since it is transmissable before becoming symptomatic, that is an expected (Darwinian) outcome when testing and isolation is restricted to those with symptoms.

[jakee 1,254]

1 hour ago, markharju said:

And if the other part about evolving is true, that perhaps means that it's mutating FAST. It may therefore end up changing into something benign and lose potency to do its dirty deeds in humans, and just go away as many before it have. 

It doesn't work like that. It's not like all of the viruses mutate at once into something benign then go 'oh shit, that was a mistake'. Strains of the virus that don't make anyone sick are likely to be heavily outcompeted by the ones that do. So while the benign mutations would go away, the nasty ones will still be here.

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, jakee said:

It doesn't work like that. It's not like all of the viruses mutate at once into something benign then go 'oh shit, that was a mistake'. Strains of the virus that don't make anyone sick are likely to be heavily outcompeted by the ones that do. So while the benign mutations would go away, the nasty ones will still be here.

Agreed. Immunology is mind-boggling in its complexity and as much as we would like it to be so, there are no easy or simple answers. I think the best approach is to isolate the vulnerable and just get on with it - the only way out is through. I think that to wait until a safe vaccine is widely available is to invite greater catastrophe. Edit to add: viral mutation is why we're always playing catch-up with flu vaccines. Some viruses (such as smallpox and polio) remain stable over long periods of time and cannot exist outside a human host, which is why they're almost entirely wiped out except in some wild areas. Once everyone is vaccinated, the viruses will no longer have any hosts available and will cease to exist.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Guest

[billvon 2,395]

3 hours ago, markharju said:

If what you're observing is true, it then follows (and I'm sure many have considered this before) that cultures which are perhaps cold and prickly and socially distant by default (Scandanavian countries? I'm not sure because I don't want to lean into stereotypes as radix causa) will potentially have less transmittal; which if true would explain why Sweden, for example, has fared better than other countries such as Italy.

But worse than its neighboring Scandinavian countries.  Finland, implementing similar restrictions, would be a better comparison.

 

[Bigfalls 110]

9 hours ago, markharju said:

What concerns me about this is there is always a seeming lag between changes, causes, and effects. If there is a sudden spike, it won't show up for weeks and if it's going to be a disaster, we may not see it until it's too late. But is the worst over now? Finally?

Kindly read the article before pigeoning, even if you deem the source unreliable. I'd also like to know if there are any peer studies which make similar observations, or even studies which counter this narrative. I want to be informed, not propagandized - thx.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/europe-s-coronavirus-spread-in-check-as-lockdowns-loosened

Researchers are testing wastewater at sewage treatment facilities for covid-19 virus to estimate the level of infections in a community.  See link to article.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/07/new-research-wastewater-community-spread-covid-19/

[wmw999 2,120]

17 minutes ago, Bigfalls said:

Researchers are testing wastewater at sewage treatment facilities for covid-19 virus to estimate the level of infections in a community.  See link to article.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/07/new-research-wastewater-community-spread-covid-19/

Memo to self: don't swim with mouth open 

Wendy P.

[billvon 2,395]

3 hours ago, wmw999 said:

Memo to self: don't swim with mouth open 

A few times a year, San Diego closes the beaches in IB because after a heavy rain all the sewage coming out of the Tijuana River contaminates the beaches there.
Strange but true fact:  During such times, police roust (and sometimes even arrest) people who are trying to party on the beach anyway, to avoid public health risks from the contamination by fecal coliform bacteria.  And up until this year, no one has claimed that that makes San Diego just like Nazi Germany.

[wmw999 2,120]

When I lived in Rio, that was a problem, too. They still pretty much just pump the waste out to sea; when the current is wrong, it hits Leblon beach.

Wendy P.

[piisfish 135]

4 hours ago, billvon said:

But worse than its neighboring Scandinavian countries.  Finland, implementing similar restrictions, would be a better comparison.

 

The Finns wonder why anyone would want to be within 6ft of anyone else. They have a regular 150 yards natural limit 

[jakee 1,254]

28 minutes ago, piisfish said:

The Finns wonder why anyone would want to be within 6ft of anyone else. They have a regular 150 yards natural limit 

Until the third vodka hits, then it's all about how many naked people can you fit into one sauna. Or plunge pool. Or.. well anywhere really, just as long as the naked thing is happening.