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kallend

We Need a Sacrifice to Mammon

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12 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:
Quote

They did a lot more than just ask, which plays straight back into preparedness.

I don't see it that way - Asking is an action - not a preparation.

Right, and since they did a lot more than that, it plays straight back into preparedness. Exactly my point. Glad you agree.

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Just now, jakee said:

Right, and since they did a lot more than that, it plays straight back into preparedness. Exactly my point. Glad you agree.

Doing something AFTER the the act of preparing for it is not preparing for it.

If you ask people to do something, after you have prepared for it is not preparing.

Demanding, and passing laws, is doing a lot more, it is still after the preparation phase.

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2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

I'm suggesting we are jumping to conclusions without data to support said conclusion.

Risk management isn't planning for the bad things you know will happen. It's considering the possibility, likelihood, and effects of risks, and deciding if mitigating or prevention is worth the effort. It needs to be an honest assessment, not based on hope.

Wendy P.

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3 minutes ago, airdvr said:

I'm suggesting we are jumping to conclusions without data to support said conclusion.

Since it is better, in this case, to be as proactive as possible - what conclusion from your doubt should we be leaning toward?

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16 minutes ago, airdvr said:

So they tested 4.5% of their population.  What conclusions can you draw when testing that small a percentage?

I addition to random sweeps, they heavily targeted their testing. Anyone shows symptoms, they trace their contacts and test everyone they reasonably believe could have been infected by them. Any of them show positive they trace their contacts etc etc. Given that sooner or later with any cluster of infections someone is going to be symptomatic and get that initial test, you end up finding pretty much every infected person in the country despite only having to test a relatively small proportion of them and your numbers are about as good as you can get.

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3 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

If you ask people to do something, after you have prepared for it is not preparing.

Right. And since, again, I'm saying they did a lot more than just ask people to do stuff, I'm at a loss as to why you keep talking about whether asking people to do something counts as preparing. Why reply to my post if you're not replying to my words? Seems like just disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, which by your definition must be a hateful thing for you to be doing.

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43 minutes ago, jakee said:
57 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:
Quote

They did a lot more than just ask, which plays straight back into preparedness.

I don't see it that way - Asking is an action - not a preparation.

Right, and since they did a lot more than that, it plays straight back into preparedness. Exactly my point. Glad you agree.

What did "they" do that "plays straight back into preparedness" after the virus was identified and we started acting from our preparations.

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2 hours ago, wmw999 said:

They closed the recreational pot stores here :ohmygod:

Wendy P.

 

2 hours ago, wmw999 said:

They stayed open a week and a half after the bars

Wendy P.

In Wisconsin, liquor stores are considered 'essential'.

They also sell all types of alcohol at grocery stores and gas stations. 

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3 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

What did "they" do that "plays straight back into preparedness" after the virus was identified and we started acting from our preparations.

They both had the infrastructure to rapidly ramp up effective testing capabiities as soon as the virus was identified in China. The US didn't have this - even when the CDC was distributing large numbers of tests the states didn't have the labs to process them all. That's preparation. They had the central command and control structure to co-ordinate highly effective contact tracing and targeted testing and quarantining, and they had the surveillance cpapabilities to help with that. They also had the authoritarian government powers to enforce lockdowns and quarantines, not just to ask. You may not want all of those things in your society, but they are effective preparation for a pandemic.

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25 minutes ago, kallend said:

Elementary Statistics 101

The likely error in data from a sample depends on the sample size, NOT on what percentage of the population it is taken from.

 

(Assuming the sampling is unbiased, of course).

True, but I'm imagining the samples were from folks who were already sick...or at least thought they were.

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3 hours ago, jakee said:

They both had the infrastructure to rapidly ramp up effective testing capabiities as soon as the virus was identified in China. The US didn't have this.

>>>>The US has that as well - but our inaction - rather our action was to not implement it fast enough. THIS - I do attribute to POTUS' lesa faire attitutde.

- even when the CDC was distributing large numbers of tests the states didn't have the labs to process them all. That's preparation.

>>>>>This may be true - do you have something that confirms it?  I cannot seem to find the specific.

They had the central command and control structure to co-ordinate highly effective contact tracing and targeted testing and quarantining, and they had the surveillance cpapabilities to help with that.

>>>>>The US has that as well, we can even track what cow a burger came from.(Exaggerated, but mostly true)

They also had the authoritarian government powers to enforce lockdowns and quarantines, not just to ask. You may not want all of those things in your society, but they are effective preparation for a pandemic.

>>>>>Having those powers are not preparation - they are the basis of how their governments control the people.

Your statement of "They did a lot more than just ask, which plays straight back into preparedness." doesn't hold.

Besides - there isn't a human alive that could have accurately extrapolated what you meant from what you posted.

 

The finer point is that it is not preparedness if it is simply the way a government is set up to operate.

It may look that way to you, but it isn't.

 

 

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3 hours ago, wmw999 said:

But the larger and more diverse a population, the harder it is to get an unbiased sampling. And picking what can be ignored is a whole exercise in fact selection on its own!

Wendy P. 

Different issue.

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On 3/24/2020 at 3:10 PM, airdvr said:

Why are the NY cases up 22% in one day?

Darn, we've phone a friend, used our lifeline and the 50/50, polled the audience and asked our wives. Hmm.. what to do, what to do? Check with the CDC? The WHO? Jared Kushner?

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2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Darn, we've phone a friend, used our lifeline and the 50/50, polled the audience and asked our wives. Hmm.. what to do, what to do? Check with the CDC? The WHO? Jared Kushner?

Fuck off Joe.  It's a simple question.  

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9 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

This may be true - do you have something that confirms it?  I cannot seem to find the specific.

Within the last few days, however, the US testing capacity has slowly started to increase. Earlier this month, the CDC said labs were conducting about 2,500 tests per day. On 16 March, the number rose to 8,200. To put things into perspective, South Korea – which has been hailed for its rapid testing of its population that is about one-sixth of the US’s – tests about 20,000 people a day.

 

Quote

They had the central command and control structure to co-ordinate highly effective contact tracing and targeted testing and quarantining, and they had the surveillance cpapabilities to help with that.

>>>>>The US has that as well, we can even track what cow a burger came from.(Exaggerated, but mostly true)

But not true. It was identified years ago after bird flu that the US command and control structure was and would be woefully disorganised, slow and ineffective in the event of a global pandemic. Obama put some structural changes in place to start helping, but Trump got rid of even those. Then a global pandemic coming from China was wargamed just last year.... and the conclusion was the US command and control structure was woefully disorganised, slow to react etc. 

 

Quote

Having those powers are not preparation - they are the basis of how their governments control the people.

And having the means to control people is good preparation for dealing with a pandemic. Otherwise you're just asking - which you yourself pointed out was not good preparation.

 

Quote

Besides - there isn't a human alive that could have accurately extrapolated what you meant from what you posted.

I know. But pretty much every english speaking human except you would have known I wasn't talking about just asking people - because I explicitly said so several times. But you kept on going, because there are certain people you just have to disagree with no matter what.

 

Quote

The finer point is that it is not preparedness if it is simply the way a government is set up to operate.

But it is. You may not like the way they're set up or think it's not a fair trade off, and that's fine. But you can't pretend it's not there just because you don't like it.

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5 hours ago, airdvr said:

Fuck off Joe.  It's a simple question.  

Then why not look for a simple answer from a reputable source? Maybe it's owing to wider availability of testing, poor adherence to social distancing recommendations or the thing is accelerating as predicted. I just know that you won't hear it first on FOX News or from President Dipsy Doodle in the Rose Garden.

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