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gowlerk

The Trump recession

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1 hour ago, airdvr said:

I must be living in your head rent free.  Still hasn't even begun to equal 2008-9.

Ample evidence exists that trump has bungled his way into recession. But like Brent and the whole global warming hoax, you want to ride the depression. Bank repo's, short sales, distressed sellers might fund a juicy retirement for those that take personal advantage of recessions.

For others there are facts.

"revealed. In April, economists at JPMorgan issued a dire forecast that predicts a 40% decline in the U.S. gross domestic product for the current quarter, which would also be reminiscent of the Great Depression, when GDP fell by nearly 30%.

Other estimates predict that the U.S. economy could shed 47 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 32% (the rate peaked at nearly 25% during the Great Depression, and around 10% during the last recession, in 2009). Already, the country’s unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, and weekly jobless claims show that more than 36 million Americans have already filed for unemployment insurance over the past eight weeks."

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42 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

the country’s unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, and weekly jobless claims show that more than 36 million Americans have already filed for unemployment insurance over the past eight weeks."

Ya, during a pandemic when you're on the internet practically everyday bitching about people wanting to end the shutdown and get back to work. . .

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48 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Ya, during a pandemic when you're on the internet practically everyday bitching about people wanting to end the shutdown and get back to work. . .

Ending the shutdown before we have robust testing and contact tracing in place WILL result in unnecessary additional deaths, especially of first responders.  (So far only the White House seems to benefit from that).

Why do you hate nurses?

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52 minutes ago, kallend said:
1 hour ago, Coreece said:

Ya, during a pandemic when you're on the internet practically everyday bitching about people wanting to end the shutdown and get back to work. . .

Ending the shutdown before we have robust testing and contact tracing in place WILL result in unnecessary additional deaths

Phil is bitching about the the high unemployment while fanatically supporting the one thing that is causing the high unemployment.

You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

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8 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Phil is bitching about the the high unemployment while fanatically supporting the one thing that is causing the high unemployment.

You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

No, your cognitive bias is failing to connect the dots. trumps failures in dealing with C-19 exaggerated the effects C-19 should have had on the economy. Saving lives, controlling the virus was his duty as president. He ceded that duty to Jared, to Pence, and finally to the states. All in a effort to escape his personal political liability.

The lock-down's benefits of bringing the virus under control will soon be tossed away. Because trump and his followers want him re-elected. If that results in a second or third wave of deaths that will just be too bad for the dead. One less vote against him.

You of Coreese know this. But its inconvenient to admit that for trump supporters deaths are just a number, just collateral damage to jumpstart the economy. Inconvenient to admit that trump fumbled the initial response. Bungled the time that the lock-down should have provided. If trump had initiated a national campaign of testing, contact tracing. Like was done within the WH.

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(edited)
26 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Phil is bitching about the the high unemployment while fanatically supporting the one thing that is causing the high unemployment.

You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

Taiwan and South Korea didn't lock down, yet they still managed to control the virus. Very few jobs lost over there.

But giving up seems to be the American way now.

Edited by olofscience

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4 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:
26 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Phil is bitching about the the high unemployment while fanatically supporting the one thing that is causing the high unemployment.

You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

No, your cognitive bias is failing to connect the dots. trumps failures in dealing with C-19 exaggerated the effects C-19 should have had on the economy

You were talking about the 36 million unemployment claims.  If you support the shutdown than those non essential workers would file for unemployment regardless.

 

11 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Taiwan and South Korea didn't lock down, yet they still managed to control the virus. Very few jobs lost over there.

So now we're back to not shutting down?  which one is it?

 

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(edited)
2 minutes ago, Coreece said:

You were talking about the 36 million unemployment claims.  If you support the shutdown than those non essential workers would file for unemployment regardless.

 

So now we're back to not shutting down?  which one is it?

I'm not Phil.

I'm all for opening back up again, IF and ONLY IF you have the contact tracing and testing in place. Is it?

Edited by olofscience

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(edited)
15 minutes ago, olofscience said:
17 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So now we're back to not shutting down?  which one is it?

I'm not Phil.

Really dude, you were the one that's been going off on how we should've been shutdown like communist New Zealand and now you're talking about not having been shut down.

And you're over looking the fact that many of these unemployment claims are more like temporary layoffs than they are job losses.

You know, like the TV show:

not getting hassled, not getting hustled
Keepin' your head above water!
Making a wave when you can!
temporary layoffs - good times!
Easy credit rip-offs - good times!
Scratchin' and survivin' - good times!
Hangin' in a chow line (Jivin') - good times!
Ain't we lucky we got 'em? good times!
 

 

 

Edited by Coreece

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3 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Really dude, you were the one that's been going off on how we should've been shutdown like communist New Zealand and now you're talking about not having been shut down.

Link to what I said then? I was talking about New Zealand's travel restrictions. Travel restrictions are NOT shutdowns.

And by the way, New Zealand has reopened. You're the one confused and inconsistent.

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1 hour ago, Coreece said:

You guys seem to be having trouble connecting the dots. . .

I think you are once again missing the point.

You have several choices.

You can do absolutely nothing.  Keep partying, going to bars, getting tattoos, eating at Chuck E Cheese with a bunch of kids.  Then we have between 500,000 and a million deaths.  If all you care about is money this is absolutely the way to go.  As one Trump supporter put it, "sacrifice the weak" - those are mainly the older takers anyway.

You can shut down forever, until the virus is gone.  That saves a lot of people.  It also wrecks the economy.  If all you care about are lives, that's the way to go.

You can do what New Zealand did - test everybody, contact trace everybody, shut down until the contagion is contained, then reopen.  They are now reopened and their economy is recovering fast.  If you care about both money and people, and have the intelligence and will to pull it off, this is the way to handle it.

You can do what we did - test almost nobody, suppress test results so that "the numbers look better," delay and minimize the problem, then shut down for a little while, then reopen in some places while the number of infections is still on the rise.  This will require either another shutdown, or will cause tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.  If you don't have the intelligence or will to make the hard calls this is where you end up.

Which option do you choose?

 

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1 minute ago, olofscience said:
5 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Really dude, you were the one that's been going off on how we should've been shutdown like communist New Zealand and now you're talking about not having been shut down.

Link to what I said then? I was talking about New Zealand's travel restrictions. Travel restrictions are NOT shutdowns.

It's all part of the shut down.  The only part you haven't explained is how the U.S woulda should coulda kept everyone at work, especially with travel restrictions.

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(edited)
55 minutes ago, Coreece said:

It's all part of the shut down.  The only part you haven't explained is how the U.S woulda should coulda kept everyone at work, especially with travel restrictions.

So when you close your borders, you also HAVE to shut down?

You can't have one without the other?

Edited by olofscience

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29 minutes ago, olofscience said:
1 hour ago, Coreece said:

It's all part of the shut down.  The only part you haven't explained is how the U.S woulda should coulda kept everyone at work, especially with travel restrictions.

So when you close your borders, you also HAVE to shut down?

If you don't, and then an out break still happens, then people like you would moan that we didn't shut down soon enough and wouda coulda shouda known about possible asymptomatic carriers out there and citizens from abroad that wouldn't follow quarantine orders!

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(edited)
6 minutes ago, Coreece said:

then people like you would moan that

So you have to completely fabricate what I might say, because you don't really have an argument?

New Zealand has reopened, people are having haircuts, going to restaurants, but travel bans remain. I tried to ask the lefties here if anyone had any complaints about that, nothing.

Edited by olofscience

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4 minutes ago, olofscience said:

New Zealand has reopened

Ya I know, New Zealand New Zealand!  Because the dynamics of some Island in the South Pacific with 5 million people is like the the contiguous U.S.

I mean that's one of the reasons you'd want to move to a bloody remote Island in the first place.

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3 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Ya I know, New Zealand New Zealand!  Because the dynamics of some Island in the South Pacific with 5 million people is like the the contiguous U.S.

I mean that's one of the reasons you'd want to move to a bloody remote Island in the first place.

I started with comparing to South Korea, a highly industrialised, urbanised, and democratic country of 51 million people.

Should I go back to that or are you just running out of excuses?

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(edited)
1 hour ago, olofscience said:

I started with comparing to South Korea, a highly industrialised, urbanised, and democratic country of 51 million people.

Should I go back to that or are you just running out of excuses?

I'll paraphrase for him. China, Australia and New Zealand are all "outliers". So you can't use them as the basis for C-19 discussion or debate. Only countries that make trump look good can be used. Hope that helps.

Edited by Phil1111

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2 hours ago, Coreece said:

Ya I know, New Zealand New Zealand!  Because the dynamics of some Island in the South Pacific with 5 million people is like the the contiguous U.S.

Actually, the dynamics of a country with a competent, trusted leader is completely different than the dynamics of the US.  If we had taken New Zealand's approach, you'd be sitting in a bar right now "supporting the local economy."

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(edited)
1 hour ago, billvon said:

you'd be sitting in a bar right now "supporting the local economy."

Soon enough many will be doing just that. As the second wave begins to build up a nice head of foam. Given what seems to being learned about indoor spread in closed spaces that will be a prime place to pass it around. I'm starting to think there will be a significant summer lull as people spend more time outdoors. But it will be temporary. And of course your poor huddled masses working in the packing plants will get no such respite as they prepare for the coming turkey season.

Edited by gowlerk

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2 hours ago, billvon said:

Actually, the dynamics of a country with a competent, trusted leader is completely different than the dynamics of the US.  If we had taken New Zealand's approach, you'd be sitting in a bar right now "supporting the local economy."

How about Wisconsin's approach?

The Republicans sued the governor to end the extension of the quarantine order. The very conservative state SC did just that. They ruled that the governor overstepped his authority when he delegated responsibility to the head of the health department for implementing the extension (you know, actually letting the 'experts' decide what the best course of action is). 

So, when the ruling went public, the Tavern League (bar owners association, very powerful politically) put out the word. Open up.
And they did. Bars all over the state opened up and were totally packed. No masks, no 'distancing', no nothing. Business as usual, or maybe a bit better because everyone was desparate to get out and socialize. 

The state saw something like 65 cases after the election, where the state SC refused to extend absentee voting or delay the election. And about 70 cases that reported 'attending large gatherings' in the 2 weeks after the protests. While both the election and the protests were 'sorta big', they were only a few thousand. There were likely tens of thousands in the bars over the weekend. 

I shudder to think how many cases were passed around in the last few days. And how many will come from those. "Exponential increases" anyone? 

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