GM plays catchup

[billvon 2,395]

Last week,  GM's CEO, wearing a leather jacket, black T-shirt and boots, explained GM's new EV strategy.  She said they were planning a new EV platform ('Ultium') that would allow ranges of over 300 miles, 0-60 times of 3 seconds or so, and very fast DC charging.  Oh, and these vehicles will also have autopilots.  To do this, they are going to build a mega?  tera? battery factory in partnership with LG Chem to supply the huge amounts of batteries needed for these vehicles.

Is any of this sounding familiar?  I was almost expecting to hear about how the GM CEO smoked pot on TV to prove she was cool.

I was both heartened and disappointed to hear GM take this approach.  Heartened because the switch to EV's is critical in reducing our carbon emissions and because used EV batteries are going to enable much faster buildout of renewables.  A little disappointed because their only big idea is, apparently, to copy Tesla.  And Tesla has an eight year head start.

And also because they (and other car manufacturers out there) have a big opening right now.  There are plenty of PHEV's on the road (pluggable hybrids) but they are mostly anemic econoboxes.  People who really want to go green, or want performance, are going with Teslas.  People who want a cheap car are still buying low cost gas cars.

So why not come out with a Tesla-like PHEV?  Take an 8kwhr (i.e. cheap) battery pack, pair it with four 200hp motors (one per wheel) and come out with an 800hp electric Camaro.  Keep a gas engine in the thing for range.  The greens who want a fast car will be attracted to it, because it will be cheaper than a Tesla - and they can do their daily commute on EV power only.  The performance types will want the power.  They can finally drag race a Tesla and not get blown away!  And the good ol boys will be able to keep the gas engine they are most comfortable with, and not have to park in those pussy green EV spaces to charge their car.

It also puts more of an emphasis on what GM does best - ICE cars.  They keep most of their factories, their tooling and their people.  No closing factories, and no paying top dollar to poach the Tesla technical experts.

I worry that GM is simply not going to be able to compete with Tesla at Tesla's game - and that will harm the auto industry in the US significantly.

[ryoder 1,381]

By "autopilot", are they referring to the Cadillac "Super Cruise".

Upside is it uses LIDAR (something missing from Tesla).

Downside is it is only usable on roads previously LIDAR-mapped.

https://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-cruise

[NewGuy2005 51]

8 hours ago, billvon said:

... and because used EV batteries are going to enable much faster buildout of renewables....

Please explain what you mean by this.

[billvon 2,395]

5 hours ago, NewGuy2005 said:

Please explain what you mean by this.

If intermittent renewables are going to replace fossil fuel power plants, we need electrical storage - lots of it.  And while pumped storage/CAES/solar thermal is going to play a role, a very large part of it is going to come from battery electrical storage systems (BESSes.)  The big problem with BESSes, of course, is getting enough batteries - we'd need a dozen gigafactories to produce enough batteries for all that storage.

The good news is that we are building all those gigafactories; they are just making batteries for EV's instead of home storage.  But most batteries are considered "end of life" when they hit 70% of capacity.   And at that point they are going to make a great source for BESS batteries.

Take my example.  I have solar, an EV and I have just switched to EV-TOU-5.  This is a pricing plan that is being pushed very heavily by the utility, because it helps with their load profile.  Power is cheap (9 cents/kwhr) from midnight to 6am, super expensive (54 c/kwhr) during the high load times in summer (5-9pm) and 30 cents/kwhr the rest of the time.

Our solar system takes care of all our load from 7am to 5pm.  That leaves only the 5-9pm time where we will be paying a lot, but for a short time.  Even with our A/C running we're not going to use more than about 6kwhr during that time.

A battery from a used 2011 Leaf runs about $1000 from a junkyard.  And even one that's at 50% capacity is going to have 12kwhr left, enough to cover two days of operation for that time period.  Thus bringing our electric rate to an effective 9 cents/kwhr, because we charge the battery either from solar or at midnight.

And this doesn't take any new resources, or require new recycling facilities or anything - it is reusing worn out EV batteries.

[kallend 1,623]

Sustainability is a required topic in accredited engineering curricula. This would make a great case study.

[Phil1111 910]

19 hours ago, billvon said:

Last week,  GM's CEO,.. explained GM's new EV strategy.  She said they were planning a new EV platform...

I worry that GM is simply not going to be able to compete with Tesla at Tesla's game - and that will harm the auto industry in the US significantly.

Imitation is the best form of flattery. Every major auto maker is targeting this major segment of the market. Don't underestimate GM. They have adapted to the changes in consumer demand longer than Musk has been alive. They have 000's of well qualified engineers. No they won't hit it out of the park. But at least they recognize that high margin trucks won't last forever.

[billvon 2,395]

4 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Imitation is the best form of flattery. Every major auto maker is targeting this major segment of the market. Don't underestimate GM. They have adapted to the changes in consumer demand longer than Musk has been alive. 

Maybe they will pull it off.  But I think they'd be better off with an approach that played to their strengths, and addresses an as-yet untapped market segment.

[brenthutch 383]

Yes, with gas prices plummeting, folks will be clamoring to pay a $10,000+ premium for the limited range of EVs.  Meanwhile, in the real world,   https://www.chevrolet.com/performance/corvette

Edited March 16, 2020 by brenthutch

[Phil1111 910]

27 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Yes, with gas prices plummeting, folks will be clamoring to pay a $10,000+ premium for the limited range of EVs.  Meanwhile, in the real world,   https://www.chevrolet.com/performance/corvette

Cramer sees Tesla worth twice the combined market cap of GM and Ford — it was just shy Tuesday

Trump says GM should repay U.S. taxpayers for bailout

"The U.S. government lost $11.2 billion on its bailout of General Motors, according to a 2014 government report. The government invested about $50 billion to bail out GM as a result of the company's 2009 bankruptcy, and at one time held a 61 percent equity stake in the Detroit-based automaker."

Many trump supporters love bailing out US companies and industries. Taxpayers cash for Corvettes. Perfect sense. In the real world of republican voters!

 

[NewGuy2005 51]

On 3/12/2020 at 11:59 AM, billvon said:

....A battery from a used 2011 Leaf runs about $1000 from a junkyard.  And even one that's at 50% capacity is going to have 12kwhr left, enough to cover two days of operation for that time period.  Thus bringing our electric rate to an effective 9 cents/kwhr, because we charge the battery either from solar or at midnight.

And this doesn't take any new resources, or require new recycling facilities or anything - it is reusing worn out EV batteries.

Thanks!

[CygnusX-1 42]

On 3/12/2020 at 12:59 PM, billvon said:

A battery from a used 2011 Leaf runs about $1000 from a junkyard.

Where are you getting your information from? The best I see out there is approx. $1100 for a partial battery (7kW not 12kW). That is a reasonable price but you can buy used Tesla modules - which include cooling/heating channels, sometimes BMS, etc. - for $1500 including shipping for 5 kW 24V. The Tesla is IMO a way better deal given all the additional safety benefits plus I'm not sure you have the current capability to draw significant power from a leaf battery without overheating or massively oversizing that battery bank.

But I agree. Using wrecked/used vehicle batteries for fixed storage is the way to go and that is what I'm planning on doing in my home.

[billvon 2,395]

11 minutes ago, CygnusX-1 said:

Where are you getting your information from?

A local junkyard down by Otay Mesa.

Quote

That is a reasonable price but you can buy used Tesla modules - which include cooling/heating channels, sometimes BMS, etc. - for $1500 including shipping for 5 kW 24V. 

Well:

1) Generally home applications don't need cooling/heating - that's specific to the very high power requirements of EV's.

2) I have yet to see a Tesla pack with a usable BMS.  Every one I've used has needed an aftermarket BMS.

However, I agree that Tesla packs are pretty cheap.  The 15S Tesla/Smart ForTwo packs are what I have been using here, since they are at a good voltage for 48V systems.  The other good option are the Pacifica LG packs - 16S in a very convenient form factor (big box.)

[CygnusX-1 42]

@billvon

1) I agree that home generally don't need cooling/heating. I just mentioned it in case someone who lives where temperatures can get close to 32F would want to use a Tesla pack (outside). Would need heating in that case. For me, my ultimate plan would be to run my entire house off grid. I would need up to 16 (to 25) kW continuous. Granted I may not need it when using a 2SxP configuration - depending on how large "x" is, but just having the capability to cool it already built in is a major bonus when dealing with "2nd life" batteries.