covid-19

[olofscience 420]

1 minute ago, kallend said:

As has been amply demonstrated already, there is nothing unbelievable about a country with China's resources performing over 1 million tests per day.  They have the manufacturing capability, and they have the person-power.

Don't you understand - any endeavour - trying to break a record in the Olympics, trying to achieve something good, is just reported to make Trump look bad

[Phil1111 910]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

Don't you understand - any endeavour - trying to break a record in the Olympics, trying to achieve something good, is just reported to make Trump look bad

trump and FOX trying harder every day: Putin, Xi more trusted than Trump worldwide: poll

[kallend 1,623]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

Don't you understand - any endeavour - trying to break a record in the Olympics, trying to achieve something good, is just reported to make Trump look bad

You're right.  I have two FAI world records for skydiving, and the only reason I participated was to make Trump look bad.  I bet Billvon and Dr. Amy went on the 400-way for the same reason.

[DJL 232]

1 hour ago, airdvr said:

We're talking about Wuhan. 

I tend to agree with Mr. AirDvr.  1,100,000 humans on the move simultaneously for the same task in a single region is a bit beyond my imagination.  Just the logistics on the supply side is wrought with numerous bottlenecks.

[Phil1111 910]

13 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Don't you understand - any endeavour - trying to break a record in the Olympics, trying to achieve something good, is just reported to make Trump look bad

 

10 minutes ago, kallend said:

You're right.  I have two FAI world records for skydiving, and the only reason I participated was to make Trump look bad.  I bet Billvon and Dr. Amy went on the 400-way for the same reason.

Well i use this, does that count?

[olofscience 420]

3 minutes ago, DJL said:

I tend to agree with Mr. AirDvr.  1,100,000 humans on the move simultaneously for the same task in a single region is a bit beyond my imagination.  Just the logistics on the supply side is wrought with numerous bottlenecks.

Millions of people get to vote on the same day in elections, so why can't millions also be swabbed? This is being done at the district level.

The logistics of getting the swabs tested, results tabulated, tracked and sent out is challenging, for sure, but is there any particular bottleneck you can think of?

[airdvr 197]

5 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Millions of people get to vote on the same day in elections, so why can't millions also be swabbed? This is being done at the district level.

The logistics of getting the swabs tested, results tabulated, tracked and sent out is challenging, for sure, but is there any particular bottleneck you can think of?

  I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just telling you how PCR tests are done.

Which one is it?

[Coreece 190]

11 minutes ago, DJL said:

I tend to agree with Mr. AirDvr.  1,100,000 humans on the move simultaneously for the same task in a single region is a bit beyond my imagination.  Just the logistics on the supply side is wrought with numerous bottlenecks.

Nonsense!  China has over 3.5 million doctors, if each of them tested just 1/3 of a person, they'd have it done by lunch time! 

You know, maths.

 

4 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Millions of people get to vote on the same day in elections, so why can't millions also be swabbed?

Social Distancing

[DJL 232]

Just now, olofscience said:

Millions of people get to vote on the same day in elections, so why can't millions also be swabbed? This is being done at the district level.

The logistics of getting the swabs tested, results tabulated, tracked and sent out is challenging, for sure, but is there any particular bottleneck you can think of?

You're right.  I get all of that.  I'm not sure why this is an argumentative topic because it seems like something that China is bragging that they're going to do so sure, let's let them do that and see how it goes.  My guess is that regardless of what they do they'll said they did it.  An election is something that takes months of preparation in a fully functioning society in which people know exactly where to go and what to do.  China hasn't shown this type of capability except at gunpoint.  I know nothing about their current capabilities but the article says simply that "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" have been given 10 days to carry out the tests.  No preparation, no statments that the testing centers are ready for this, just "10 days to get 11 million people tested".  There's a lot of ambivalence in that statement.  In comparison our own "testing czar" says the entirety of the US could ramp up to 1.3 to 1.7 million tests per day by September.

[olofscience 420]

7 minutes ago, airdvr said:

  I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just telling you how PCR tests are done.

Which one is it?

I'm saying that with what I know about PCR testing, there is no specific bottleneck that I can identify that will actually be insurmountable.

Elon's plan to colonise Mars needs some technology that hasn't been developed yet.

But in case of China's ambition to test 11 million people, they have the test kits, they have the PCR machines, they have the staff to do the testing. Unless they run out of reagent (which they also manufacture, so unlikely) the only thing I can think of is they'll probably take longer than 10 days to do it.

[DJL 232]

5 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Nonsense!  China has over 3.5 million doctors, if each of them tested just 1/3 of a person, they'd have it done by lunch time! 

You know, maths.

Guys.  Take a step back a second.  This isn't something that's been prepared and all anyone here knows is exactly what was in that single article, that at a drop of a hat the "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" were told that they have 10 days to complete 11 million tests.  The clock started yesterday.  I simply have my doubts that a 11 million person testing program can be instantly ramped up and completed in 10 days.

They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DJL

[Coreece 190]

1 minute ago, DJL said:

7 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Nonsense!  China has over 3.5 million doctors, if each of them tested just 1/3 of a person, they'd have it done by lunch time! 

You know, maths.

Guys.  Take a step back a second.  This isn't something that's been prepared and all anyone here knows is exactly what was in that single article, that at a drop of a hat the "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" were told that they have 10 days to complete 11 million tests.  The clock started yesterday.  I simply have my doubts that a 11 million person testing program can be instantly ramped up and completed in 10 days.

They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work.

I agree. That was just sarcasm inspired by Bill's post upthread.

[olofscience 420]

3 minutes ago, DJL said:

Guys.  Take a step back a second.  This isn't something that's been prepared and all anyone here knows is exactly what was in that single article, that at a drop of a hat the "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" were told that they have 10 days to complete 11 million tests.  The clock started yesterday.  I simply have my doubts that a 11 million person testing program can be instantly ramped up and completed in 10 days.

They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work.

TL;DR:

Airdvr was making assumptions how long tests took and that was why it was impossible to do 11 million. So I gave some details about PCR testing.

Then I was promptly accused of believing China's propaganda.

Then turtle stepped in saying that it was a lie to make Trump look bad. So I started a joke about other things people do to make Trump look bad.

Then you had your doubts about the logistics, so I asked for more details about what the bottlenecks are. You did provide more details, which I think are valid concerns. But we'll see as it's only an intention to do tests, they haven't accomplished it yet.

Now let's get back to how every endeavour to do something good is only done to make Trump look bad

[kallend 1,623]

9 minutes ago, DJL said:

Guys.  Take a step back a second.  This isn't something that's been prepared and all anyone here knows is exactly what was in that single article, that at a drop of a hat the "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" were told that they have 10 days to complete 11 million tests.  The clock started yesterday.  I simply have my doubts that a 11 million person testing program can be instantly ramped up and completed in 10 days.

They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work.

Who said it has to be ramped up starting yesterday?  Not the article posted.  For all you know they have been stockpiling tests and planning for weeks already.

[Phil1111 910]

9 minutes ago, DJL said:

You're right. ....  My guess is that regardless of what they do they'll said they did it.  ...

 

9 minutes ago, olofscience said:

I'm saying ... the only thing I can think of is they'll probably take longer than 10 days to do it.

Agree but regardless of the speculation of what China can or will do. They locked down Wuhan and restricted travel for 800 million people. They seem equally serious about dealing with this renewed outbreak.

Proof of what they did do are the numerous western news media reports most of which were televised. Which reported normal open travel thought China and commerce more or less open. Those in power and the Chinese people are all operating from the same manual.

In the US Armed militia-style protesters have helped businesses across Texas defy coronavirus lockdowns and reopen. Protesters say they are enforcing the Constitution.  and from the WH

Advice from the top U.S. disease control experts on how to safely reopen businesses and institutions during the coronavirus pandemic was more detailed and restrictive than the plan released by the White House last month.

The guidance, which was shelved by Trump administration officials, also offered recommendations to help communities decide when to shut facilities down again during future flareups of COVID-19.

[olofscience 420]

12 minutes ago, kallend said:

Who said it has to be ramped up starting yesterday?  Not the article posted.  For all you know they have been stockpiling tests and planning for weeks already.

With such a secretive country, who knows? All we can safely assume is that they're going to try this, not because they want to get rid of the virus, but because they want to make Trump look bad

Edited May 14, 2020 by olofscience

[DJL 232]

34 minutes ago, kallend said:

Who said it has to be ramped up starting yesterday?  Not the article posted.  For all you know they have been stockpiling tests and planning for weeks already.

"For all you know" is all we all know.  The article just says they found new cases and they have 10 days to test 11 million people.  That's not enough to base any argument upon except speculation.  Let's just say it's OK to speculate. But yes, they said that yesterday.  They didn't say the clock would start yesterday but they also didn't say it would start a month from now, they just said "District health commissions and neighborhood committees" must figure it out and have it done in 10 days.

[ryoder 1,381]

Well, at least China isn't claiming they can do something like build a 1000-bed hospital in 10 days...oh wait:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-managed-build-entirely-new-hospital-in-10-days-2020-2

[kallend 1,623]

21 minutes ago, olofscience said:

With such a secretive country, who knows? All we can safely assume is that they're going to try this, not because they want to get rid of the virus, but because they want to make Trump look bad

This.

And if we've learned anything in the past 40 years, it's not to underestimate China.

If you'd suggested in 1980 that by 2020 China would be the world's manufacturing powerhouse, supplying hi-tech goods to Europe and the USA, people would have just laughed at you.

China has already passed the USA in BS degrees in STEM fields, and may have passed us in PhDs in STEM.  Meanwhile, we clearly predominate in BA degrees in photojournalism, fashion design, culinary arts, art history, theater, and other drivers of economic growth.

https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20201/u-s-and-global-education 

[turtlespeed 212]

2 hours ago, olofscience said:

There are definitely concerns about China's truthfulness, and I see the announcement of 11 million tests as declaration of their ambition rather than actual ability.

When Elon Musk announced his ambition to build a colony on Mars, people criticised him, laugh at him, for being too ambitious, but you don't say "you LIAR" as ambitions are neither truth nor lies, just intention.

That's why I described how PCR tests work - you can look at the logistics of it, you can look at the cost of it, but saying it's not possible because they're liars isn't really useful.

When China announces they've "finished" testing all 11 million Wuhan residents, then you can start the name-calling. Not before.

So we check back in 10 days.

At 5 days they should be at 50%, right?

They should be about done with the first 1.1 Million, right?

Edited May 14, 2020 by turtlespeed

[jakee 1,254]

2 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

If it makes Trump look bad in any way - they will heavily lean toward believing it to be true, no matter the source.

And you will deny it, no matter what the evidence.

Quote

They will then hold that belief until it is proven to be untrue.  Even then, they will defend it.  They will say that they got close.  They will say that (whomever) reached the numbers, but the tests were incorrectly taken, not effective, mis-manufactured, ineffective. or whatever.

How often is it proven to be untrue? What testing targets has the US managed to hit?

 

By the way, doesn't it occur to you that you are exactly describing your own behaviour in the wake of, for instance, the Trump injection and UV light comments? You said that someone else had told him they would be researched, but that wasn't true. You said it was actually a good idea to research the things he suggested, but that wasn't true either. You said even if it was a silly idea off the top of his head that he only said it to try and provide hope, but Trump himself denied that. Then when you ran out of denials and defences you simply pivoted to distracting from it by falsely claiming that the media and posters here were deliberately and malisciously claiming he had said something different, and you clung onto that lie until the bitter end. I don't think I've seen anyone else on any side of an argument twist as much as that before. Maybe Rush, but it's too hard to figure out what he means from post to post to say for sure.

 

Quote

If Trump said some shit like Gummy Bears are the cure - It would happen the same exact way.

Oh no Turtle, it's better than that. We don't need a cure, we don't need a vaccine. Coronavirus will just go away all on its own, except maybe a few flareups in the fall.

 

So what do you say, do you want to defend that in the same way you defended bleach and really strong UV light?

[turtlespeed 212]

2 hours ago, olofscience said:

In other news, that bastion of lies, racism, and communism, New Zealand, is partially reopening as they haven't seen any new cases in several days and could contact-trace those more easily:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52658550

Contact tracing would have been amazing.

You just can't sell that to the american people that have this illusion of protected privacy.

[turtlespeed 212]

No delete function

Edited May 14, 2020 by turtlespeed

[turtlespeed 212]

No delete function

Edited May 14, 2020 by turtlespeed

[jakee 1,254]

1 hour ago, DJL said:

They don't have instant access to 3.5 million doctors and all the materials needed to perform this work.

3.5 million doctors? Each doctor can only test one third of a person per day?