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gowlerk

covid-19

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On 5/1/2020 at 4:38 PM, billvon said:

?? We likely all had it; none of us sought help.  And there are likely a lot of people who got it with fewer symptoms than we had.

Keep in mind that people are avoiding primary care facilities, ER's and urgent care like the plague (literally) because they have heard there are a lot of sick people there.  Also keep in mind that if the police find someone dead in an apartment they go to the morgue - and they are not tested there.  

So it's likely to be significantly underreported.

Well, I'm not familiar with the situation out in CA, or by Wendy in MA, but here in WI, they are doing a reasonably comptent job of trying to stay on top of it. 
We've been on a fairly tight lockdown since March, and it is working pretty well.

None of the hospitals or health departments is totally overwhelmed. Busy as all hell, but mostly keeping up.

Confirmed cases are 'contact traced', then the people who were potentially infected are tested.
People who experience sypmtoms are encouraged to contact health care. Not to go, but to call or video conference (I posted this already). The health care folk decide what to do from there. 
There is a decent amount of testing going on, but it's 'doctor directed'. People who experience symptoms and call the doc get a slip to go get tested. They are doing a lot of 'drive thru' testing. Pull up in your car, roll the window down, get a swab stuck up your nose. A bit of info exchange and off you go.

The worst 'hot spot' right now is a couple of meat processors in Green Bay. They have a couple hundred confirmed cases and a lot more that were potentially exposed. 
A lot of the test kits are going to those places. 

I know that the hardest hit places aren't even trying to contact trace or even test all of the symptomatic people. 
I have heard that the numbers in New York City are likely way, way, way underrepported. For a while, the only 'confirmed dead' were those who had tested positive in a hosptial (the only places actually doing the testing). People who died at home, in the street, or even in the hospitial that died before they could be tested weren't counted. Some of those have now been included in the numbers, but it's still likely way low. 
I saw a scary story where the total numbers of deaths in NYC for March & April were looked at over the last ten years or so. Prior to this year, those numbers were very stable year to year. 
This year they are off the chart. 
This isn't the original story I read, but it's got the same basic info. NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

But, as I noted, WI is doing a decent job of keeping track of the numbers.

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The reason everyone is confused, in a spin, doesn't know what to do, or are simply worried is simple.

Nothing like this has ever happened before. Well, not in our lifetimes anyway. By now you've probably heard enough about the Spanish Flu pandemic that swept the world in 1919. They used to call it 'the forgotten pandemic,' but it killed nearly twenty million people worldwide. I won't go into that, because you can Google it up easily. And suddenly it isn't forgotten anymore. But there is something about it you should know. If you adjust for today's population, and such a pandemic as Spanish Flu had spread worldwide, victims would have exceeded 70 million people, not twenty. And believe it or not, without some action to control the spread of Covid-19, such a number of deaths COULD be reached as a result of it. Had we done nothing.

Sure, we have much better medical facilities than they did back in 1919, but right now there is no vaccine, no certified 'cure' for Covid. And the truth is that the world in general, with the exception of a few smart countries like New Zealand, did a piss-poor job jumping on this pandemic from the get-go. So it has spread far beyond what SARS did, for example. SARS killed less than a dozen people in the US, and caused less than a thousand deaths worldwide before they got a handle on it. If you look up SARS, it is classified as a Covid-type virus as well.

Now we're stuck with the results of Covid-19, and what will happen is probably some kind of recession afterward, even when we get a handle on it and can go back to some type of normal life. It sucks, it stinks, nobody likes it, and everybody is PISSED OFF. Everyone wants to point fingers, but it's hard to assign blame to just one leader, one government, one organization.

Maybe we ALL simply f%$cKd up, who knows? Don't ask me.

Maybe instead of pointing fingers, it's better if we learn lessons from this and make sure we are better prepared next time. Nobody wants to go through this again.

A disease that anyone can catch, and that spreads so insidiously to others, is not a political issue. It affects everyone from top to bottom, rich or poor, Dem or GOP, vegan or bacon fan, whatever. It is a universal threat. It is a HUMAN threat.

I wish I had some magic answer, but I don't. We will have to get through this, and since we are left with few choices right now, the BEST way is to get through it TOGETHER. Pointing fingers now is well...pointless. And this is nowhere near CLOSE to sacrifices Americans have been asked to make in a national emergency. During WW2 they suspended certain rights, rationed food and fuel, and did a number of things that would seem crazy to people today. But it was necessary. Hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their lives. And it went on not for a few months, but four long years.

Look out for what is best for your families and friends, and like that Turkish judge told Billy Hayes in the movie Midnight Express: "May it pass quickly..."

As for me, I've already driven into the Olympic National Forest in WA state twice now since this all started to go camping. To get away for a few days. I recommend that if you can do this same type of thing where YOU live, it does help. It's a good anti-depressant. I leave again for three days this coming Tuesday. It ain't much, but it beats sitting around the house and listening to the unending news on the pandemic. 

The latest 'graphs,' the latest 'analysis charts' say we should have this under control by July 1. Just in time for Independence Day. This country may be stricken with a pandemic, but remember that a lot of Americans out there sacrificed their lives so you could live in freedom. And we are STILL living in freedom. Stores may be closed, maybe you are asked to practice this 'social distancing' stuff which no one likes and is against human nature. But it's only temporary. When the Titanic sank, everyone wanted to blame someone. But in the end, they created the International Ice Patrol, and made worldwide safety rules that most countries agreed to, and ended up saving untold numbers of lives by those actions down the road.

It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

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When the Titanic sank, everyone wanted to blame someone. But in the end, they created the International Ice Patrol, and made worldwide safety rules that most countries agreed to, and ended up saving untold numbers of lives by those actions down the road.

It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

I think I love you...

Wendy P.

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1 hour ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Sure, we have much better medical facilities than they did back in 1919, but right now there is no vaccine, no certified 'cure' for Covid. And the truth is that the world in general, with the exception of a few smart countries like New Zealand, did a piss-poor job jumping on this pandemic from the get-go. So it has spread far beyond what SARS did, for example. SARS killed less than a dozen people in the US, and caused less than a thousand deaths worldwide before they got a handle on it. If you look up SARS, it is classified as a Covid-type virus as well.

It is, but so are most common colds, and they're not a very good comparison either. Sars wasn't stopped because we dealt with it any better, it was stopped becase it's far, far easier to stop. Generally speaking you only catch Sars through exposure to someone who is seriously ill. These people are easy to isolate and trace. You catch Covid-19 from exposure to anyone who has it. Globally Sars wasn't dealt with any better than the current pandemic, in fact several major public health failings were exposed. Like with anything else though, because we got away lightly it didn't seem particularly important to fix those failings. Like with skydiving or any other risky activity, a massive potential learning opportunity unfortunately becomes another step in the normalisation of deviance.

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6 hours ago, jakee said:

It is, but so are most common colds, and they're not a very good comparison either. Sars wasn't stopped because we dealt with it any better, it was stopped becase it's far, far easier to stop. Generally speaking you only catch Sars through exposure to someone who is seriously ill. These people are easy to isolate and trace. You catch Covid-19 from exposure to anyone who has it. Globally Sars wasn't dealt with any better than the current pandemic, in fact several major public health failings were exposed. Like with anything else though, because we got away lightly it didn't seem particularly important to fix those failings. Like with skydiving or any other risky activity, a massive potential learning opportunity unfortunately becomes another step in the normalisation of deviance.

As Wendy quotes in every one of her posts:
"There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)"

 

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8 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

...And the truth is that the world in general, with the exception of a few smart countries like New Zealand, did a piss-poor job jumping on this pandemic from the get-go. So it has spread far beyond what SARS did, for example. SARS killed less than a dozen people in the US, and caused less than a thousand deaths worldwide before they got a handle on it. If you look up SARS, it is classified as a Covid-type virus as well.

Now we're stuck with the results of Covid-19, and what will happen is probably some kind of recession afterward, even when we get a handle on it and can go back to some type of normal life. It sucks, it stinks, nobody likes it, and everybody is PISSED OFF. Everyone wants to point fingers, but it's hard to assign blame to just one leader, one government, one organization...

...Maybe instead of pointing fingers, it's better if we learn lessons from this and make sure we are better prepared next time. Nobody wants to go through this again.

A disease that anyone can catch, and that spreads so insidiously to others, is not a political issue. It affects everyone from top to bottom, rich or poor, Dem or GOP, vegan or bacon fan, whatever. It is a universal threat. It is a HUMAN threat...

I wish I had some magic answer, but I don't. We will have to get through this, and since we are left with few choices right now, the BEST way is to get through it TOGETHER. Pointing fingers now is well...pointless. And this is nowhere near CLOSE to sacrifices Americans have been asked to make in a national emergency. During WW2 they suspended certain rights, rationed food and fuel, and did a number of things that would seem crazy to people today. But it was necessary. Hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their lives. And it went on not for a few months, but four long years...

...It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

As was pointed out, this is vastly different from SARS. Closer to H1N1, but worse. Much more deadly. 

After SARS & H1N1, the US put in place a plan for the next pandemic and put a team togther. 

What happened? Trump threw the plan out and disbanded the team.


WE LEARNED FROM THE LAST ONE!!!

But the idiot in Chief chose to ignore the lessons. 

New Zealand, Australia & Germany have all done pretty decent jobs of dealing with this. 

Italy, Spain & Iran got hosed so bad because it made it there and started spreading widely before it was understood how bad it was. 

Here in the US, travel wasn't shut down, quarantine measures weren't put in place, the Mango Mussolini stood up and told fairy tales about how it would 'just go away'. 

So now we have the worst of it in the entire world. 

To say that 'it's hard to assign blame to just one leader' completely ignores Trump's culpability. His blatant incomptetence. His criminal stupidity. 

 

Of course the Rs are more concerned with the economy than people's lives. So they are pushing to reopen. 

And if we reopen, the 2nd wave of infections will make the last couple months look like a toddler with the sniffles.
We really aren't through with the first wave yet. Infections aren't down, they're increasing.

The Spanish Flu killed 50 million (estimated), not 20. About 80% of that was in the second wave.
It hit, people locked down, it started to get better and they opened back up...

And it hit in a second wave that was about 10 times worse.

If we reopen now, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this last until fall...

Or later. 

But hey, the Alt Right feels they need to run around with rifles hanging off their shoulders, trying to intimidate lawmakers.

LIke terrorists. I've seen the term "Vanilla ISIS" around. Rather fitting.

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Here in the US, travel wasn't shut down, quarantine measures weren't put in place, the Mango Mussolini stood up and told fairy tales about how it would 'just go away'. 

So now we have the worst of it in the entire world. 

Problem is that only a few hot spots really have it bad. Which makes it easy for people to say "well, that's not the real America. I mean -- NYC? Boston? New Jersey? People make jokes about them. 

Just like people make jokes about hippies, yahoos, rednecks, and other fellow Americans.

Wendy P.

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11 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

Agreed.  Going forward, the best things we could do are:

Restart the US Pandemic Response Team and fund it to be ready for the next one

Fund/support the WHO so we have advance warning of it next time, even if it happens in Botswana or something

Support research into monoclonal antibody therapy

Have tracking/testing/monitoring systems ready to go (should be under the purview of the pandemic response team)

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14 hours ago, billvon said:

Agreed.  Going forward, the best things we could do are:

Restart the US Pandemic Response Team and fund it to be ready for the next one

Fund/support the WHO so we have advance warning of it next time, even if it happens in Botswana or something

Support research into monoclonal antibody therapy

Have tracking/testing/monitoring systems ready to go (should be under the purview of the pandemic response team)

And, as Cato the Censor might have said, "Ceterum autem censeo praecurrentem Trumpem esse."

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18 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

After SARS & H1N1, the US put in place a plan for the next pandemic and put a team togther. 

What happened? Trump threw the plan out and disbanded the team.

I think that's a legitimate issue that needs to be looked at, but there seems to be some conflicting perspectives on this.  Can you point to something specific in that plan that was ignored that would've made a difference?

 

18 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Of course the Rs are more concerned with the economy than people's lives. So they are pushing to reopen. 

It's a bit concerning.  Whitmer rolled back some restrictions in Michigan due to pressure from a very small minority of people on the right. (Basically opening up nurseries and allowing people to travel to their seasonal properties up north which represents roughly 30-50+% of all residential properties up here depending on county.) 

That same day my neighbors came up with like 15 people.  I can't say that I blame them - they have this amazing log cabin on the lake that they hardly get to enjoy, but why have a party?  And it's not the party that I was really concerned about, it was if they were going into town and possibly spreading something around.

Anyway, a month ago this place was a ghost town, now everything looks like it's back to normal.  Not good.  This is a tourist town and we just don't have the medical resources to handle an influx for year round residents, let alone seasonal residents.

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Just a few thoughts on what is going on.

What would Rod Serling be thinking if he were alive today.

I drove through town and didn't have to slow down for the school zone.

Speaking of school, why isn't Alice Cooper's song "School's Out" making a come back.

People are starting to sound like Kenny from South Park.

I am sure I am not the only one tired of wearing a mask in public but will continue to do so as long as it is necessary.

Now back to the serious discussion.

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On 5/1/2020 at 3:46 PM, jakee said:

If you open everything back up and then you do end up hitting those projections, just 45 days later then what have you gained from all the hardship?

That's a conversation I've had a few times with people.  Why do all of this without having reaped the benefits?  Yes, there's the concept of not holding onto a bad poker hand but we decided that we would prioritize human lives.  Let's say that this was only effective enough to have saved as many lives as we've lost, around 60,000 people, approximately the number of soldiers lost in the Vietnam War.  If we were to vote on having those lives back in exchange for a few months of lockdown I think it's clear how that vote would go.  If we were to abandon this right now we would suffer both the consequences in lives AND the economy.

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50 minutes ago, DJL said:

That's a conversation I've had a few times with people.  Why do all of this without having reaped the benefits?  Yes, there's the concept of not holding onto a bad poker hand but we decided that we would prioritize human lives.  Let's say that this was only effective enough to have saved as many lives as we've lost, around 60,000 people, approximately the number of soldiers lost in the Vietnam War.  If we were to vote on having those lives back in exchange for a few months of lockdown I think it's clear how that vote would go.  If we were to abandon this right now we would suffer both the consequences in lives AND the economy.

 

26 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Exactly, we are already pot committed. 

IMO there has been some progress made with regards to defeating C-19. Sweden embarked on a different route and its mortality can be compared to its Nordic neighbors. Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.

States should open up sooner rather than later. But older and at risk people need serious protections. Protections from exposure and from having to take unnecessary risks for employment, or obtain goods and services. It seems as if the need for ventilators has become less of an issue. That younger healthy people are generally fairly safe.

Some industries airline, cruise,restaurant, sports, travel, etc. will show financial damage for years.

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(edited)

The only days I had to work this week were today (Monday) and this coming Friday. 

So...I rescheduled Friday to NEXT Monday, May 11...(*insert evil laugh HERE*)

I'm packing up my truck and going back to the place in the picture below. It's far into the Olympic Mountains of WA state, but not particularly high in altitude. No one goes much to the places I go. I figure, no people, no virus. Won't be back until Saturday. I am frickin' TIRED of sitting around the house. I have HAD it. 

No worries though. I don't really rough it. Here's a partial list of the gear:  Kitchen and cooking table setup that breaks down into a suitcase size bag, portable TV/DVD player, for the bigger stuff a media projector and a ten foot diagonal screen you hang between two trees, portable flush toilet, bath tent with shower, really big tarps, tent you can stand upright in, portable generator I hook to 200 feet of extension cord so you don't have to listen to it, stereo, blah, blah, blah. 

I gave up the fifty mile hike with iron rations thing a while ago...did my share. 

Inflatable queen size bed. Forgot that one. Bunch of other stuff. B)

July2018Mainsite.jpg.f6451a0272ce89d2478e91012e69794f.jpg

1815902609_showertent.jpg.d7ec0327a50f084c984a7e479f029222.jpg

TVsetup.jpg.fb756bd6faa80c575f0280fe4595a494.jpg

Quote

 

"Mama, what's 'vacation'?"

"Vacation? Vacation's when you leave...and you don't NEVER come back."

 

 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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I agree with the approach that calls for taking care of those most at risk but not shutting down the economy. 

I'm one of those that would be classified as "at risk".  I know how to minimize the chances of infection.  I can accept that my actions might expose me to the 'Rona.  I don't want other citizen's rights taken away to protect me.

 

 

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(edited)

You're not ready yet, daily cases have not reduced nearly enough. These figures are WITH the restrictions you've been facing, lift those and they will explode.

image.png.e8460d4004ac00650295b9611b52ca65.png

EDIT:

For comparison, here's Australia's figures (yes, I know the population totals and densities aren't entirely comparable). Aside from a few dumb misteps, we locked down early and we locked down hard. We're just now starting to ease things up a little.

image.png.33dda542a652b11ef5b9432f96770dd5.png

Edited by mistercwood

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On 5/3/2020 at 3:20 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

So now we have the worst of it in the entire world.

Another one that can't wrap their head around the difference between rates and raw numbers.

The entire world could end with wolfriverjoe being the sole survivor since he knows better than anyone else. He'd put on his dysfunctional critical thinking cap, look at the numbers, and then wonder why China got hit the hardest.:p

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47 minutes ago, Coreece said:

Another one that can't wrap their head around the difference between rates and raw numbers.

The entire world could end with wolfriverjoe being the sole survivor since he knows better than anyone else. He'd put on his dysfunctional critical thinking cap, look at the numbers, and then wonder why China got hit the hardest.:p

I suppose you believe the numbers genius who said this on February 26: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero."

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1 hour ago, kallend said:

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

I find it telling when you require percentages and per capita numbers when discussing gun murders in Chiraq but not when looking at Covid deaths.

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