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gowlerk

covid-19

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6 hours ago, nigel99 said:

Are the reported rates accurate when such a small community has family affected?

Not suggesting a coverup, just wondering

I wish I remembered more about probability theory, so I'd know how to create the actual formula, but my guess is that this is not unlikely at all.:

  • You currently have a base probability of about 0.08% of anyone being part of the group of confirmed infections (total US infections/total US population)--let's call it i/p
  • Then you have the group of active members in this community: m
  • Then you have the average group-size of family/close friends of each active member (maybe 20-30?): f
  • So the sample size is f*m (maybe 1000-2000?) This is extremely small as a percentage of p BUT the likelihood of at least 1 member of (f*m) to also be a member of i is probably not that small

But of course, the infection rate MUST BE much higher than the reported cases, simply because the percentage of how many people are tested, is so low. If testing was random, you'd have to assume that the true rate of infection (I) is: (i/t) * p  where "t"=number of tested individuals. That would come out to a HUGE number. Of course it is to be assumed that it isn't quite as high, because we are mostly testing individuals, who we think have a high likelihood of being infected, but STILL: Of course, the real rate of infection is much higher than what's being reported as confirmed cases.

Anyway: kallend, I hope your son recovers and everything will be well.

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16 hours ago, kallend said:

Just heard that my son (45) has it and is in ICU on ventilator in Arkansas,

I won't be on here for a while.

best of luck to your son John. I hope it all works out  for him. 

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OMG someone put JARED KUSHNER in charge of something pertaining to Coronavirus?  What, is 6000 dead not enough?

And he said this with no sense of irony at all while trying to attack Democrats:

"What a lot of the voters are seeing now is that when you elect somebody to be a mayor or governor or president, you're trying to think about who will be a competent manager during the time of crisis.  This is a time of crisis, and you're seeing certain people are better managers than others."

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25 minutes ago, billvon said:

OMG someone put JARED KUSHNER in charge of something pertaining to Coronavirus?  What, is 6000 dead not enough?

And he said this with no sense of irony at all while trying to attack Democrats:

"What a lot of the voters are seeing now is that when you elect somebody to be a mayor or governor or president, you're trying to think about who will be a competent manager during the time of crisis.  This is a time of crisis, and you're seeing certain people are better managers than others."

Between that and "I take no responsibility" the trump clan is handing out gold to Democrats.

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CDC: People should now wear some form of face mask in public.

Trump. Oh don't worry, that's totally voluntary, you don't have to. I won't!

White House: Everyone who meets Trump will be tested first.

 

What a great example for Trump to set for ordinary people - no need to worry about wearing a mask, just make sure every person you have contact with has tested negative for Coronavirus, simple! That's right up there with Boris "Of course I'll keep shaking hands... Oh bugger I've got Covid-19" Johnson for useful advice.

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(edited)
19 hours ago, billvon said:

OMG someone put JARED KUSHNER in charge of something

"I know a lot more about it than I did a few days ago." Which means that you don't know shit from a good grade of peanut butter about it today.

When Mr. Fugate says:

Quote

“You know last time I checked, he’s never run disasters,” said Craig Fugate, who ran FEMA during the Obama administration.

Fugate said the federal government can’t base decisions on request. The coronavirus is moving so fast states can’t keep up.

“My experience in disasters is the burn rate is always greater than what anybody anticipates,” he said. “And if we had waited for states to identify their needs, we were always behind and not there fast enough.”

~https://getaka.co.in/usa-news/jared-kushners-role-in-coronavirus-response-draws-scrutiny-criticism/

 We may disagree on a lot of things on here, but not this. I have stood on the front lines of some of our nations largest disasters with Charles Hagan III & Mr. Craig Fugate. Mr. Fugate is one of the most apolitical people you could ever meet - whose sole interest is the job of disaster response. There are no men that everyone in disaster response respect more the Craig and Chuck. 

Craig & Chuck have worked for and with both sides of the political aisle. 

   

Edited by BIGUN
Not enough coffee

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(edited)
5 hours ago, jakee said:

CDC: People should now wear some form of face mask in public.

Trump. Oh don't worry, that's totally voluntary, you don't have to. I won't!

White House: Everyone who meets Trump will be tested first.

 

What a great example for Trump to set for ordinary people - no need to worry about wearing a mask, just make sure every person you have contact with has tested negative for Coronavirus, simple! That's right up there with Boris "Of course I'll keep shaking hands... Oh bugger I've got Covid-19" Johnson for useful advice.

For trump anything. Reminds one of the generals dining on fine wine and caviar while their troops starved.

Great example for sure.

Edited by Phil1111

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1 minute ago, kallend said:

I don't like BoJo much, but unlike Trump who IS a buffoon, BoJo just plays one on TV.

I know it is largely an act, but still he seems completely oblivious to the economic benefits of being in the EU.

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16 hours ago, ryoder said:

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for the new coronavirus

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-positive-coronavirus-69989185

Who is going to put masks on all the zoo animals now?

Can we please go back to just having an opioid crisis? At least then it was only a crisis if you were out.

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One of my sisters-in-law is a supervising physician at an opioid clinic (buprenorphine). Most of their patients are on telephone supervision now, but she's going into the office for all the ones who really, really, need to come in (often mental illness related -- when the voices tell you to double your dose for the day, well, you might listen to those voices).

Opioids definitely haven't' gone away. But one of her mentally ill come-in patients was telling her last week about his encounter with a narc (" I KNEW he was a narc -- he had those narc eyes, and was staring at me!"). This was outside his apartment. So he dealt with the problem by coughing in his general direction. Said he just couldn't get away fast enough. 

Gotta find your humor somewhere

Wendy P.

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45 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

 ...Gotta find your humor somewhere

Wendy P.

humph easy enough for a woman to find humor when C-19 is killing men 30% more often than women!  Kidding aside more men smoke, 3-5% more than women and use cannabis 50% more. They also work in trades welding, farming, etc which likely expose their lungs to possible damage.

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6 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

humph easy enough for a woman to find humor when C-19 is killing men 30% more often than women!  Kidding aside more men smoke, 3-5% more than women and use cannabis 50% more. They also work in trades welding, farming, etc which likely expose their lungs to possible damage.

And mining. Just think what will happen when it hits those areas who voted for Trump because he promised to bring back those great mining jobs.

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(edited)
21 hours ago, ryoder said:

Navy Captain Removed From Carrier, Tests Positive for Covid-19

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/magazine/navy-captain-crozier-positive-coronavirus.html

 

So the acting secNav goes to Guam. Doesn't tour the ship instead heads right to the ships internal announcement system to "injected partisan political tones into the address by attacking former Vice President Joe Biden, who has repeatedly criticized Crozier’s removal...in a profane and defensive address that one crew member described in an interview as “whiny, upset, irritated, condescending,” Modly took repeated shots at the integrity of Capt. Brett E. Crozier,... Modly said Crozier was “too naïve or too stupid to be a commanding officer”...

the acting secretary slammed China and its role in the coronavirus pandemic while taking issue with Crozier’s assertion in the leaked letter that America was not at war. “The only reason we are dealing with this right now is because a big authoritarian regime called China was not forthcoming about what was happening with this virus and they put the world at risk to protect themselves and to protect their reputations,”..

You can disobey the chain of command and take the consequences, but there is no situation where you go to the media.”

Such an action, Modly implied, could threaten the dissolution of the United States."

I fuc*#ng kid you not. Thats exactly what he did when he flew to Guam, went right to the bridge. Then without touring the ship left. Evidently C-19 isn't a concern to sailors but is to him. Full transcript.

Edited by Phil1111

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