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gowlerk

covid-19

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26 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Pretty soon I think you'll see people ignoring the advice.

Yup, we already are. Neither of us live in a police state so containment is not going to be 100% effective. As the dying starts to get going there is going to be enormous social pressure to comply. But you are right, we can't hide away forever. That's why I say that eventually we will all come into contact with it. Maybe next year there will be an effective vaccine or anti virals or both. Maybe not. We don't know if it will confer long lasting immunity or not. We don't know if it will mutate and become worse, or kill off the vulnerable and become just a background virus. But we do know that it is a major event and that our reaction is warranted and then some.

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40 minutes ago, airdvr said:

No need to worry about that.  Pretty soon I think you'll see people ignoring the advice.  We're lucky (probably everyone in here).  We have the means to continue for quite some time under these rules.  A majority don't.

You didn't answer. Last time I played the P word analogy and was turned in to the principal by the hall monitors. This time I'll just say please be more honest.

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Maybe this picture will help

.1751427944_Italybodyconvoy.jpg.e9c8e6863bac17361016dc329ad375e8.jpg

 

This is the description that goes with it:

"We Italians are all watching this on the media now. An Army convoy that is carrying right now the bodies of the deceased people from Bergamo to Modena, 202 Km. The bodies will be cremated there. The family members of the dead couldn’t assist their loved ones in their last hours, they died alone, surrounded by people wearing biohazard suits. Their relatives were notified about the demise by a phone call of the doctor, expressing his/her condolence."

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30 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Maybe this picture will help

.1751427944_Italybodyconvoy.jpg.e9c8e6863bac17361016dc329ad375e8.jpg

 

This is the description that goes with it:

"We Italians are all watching this on the media now. An Army convoy that is carrying right now the bodies of the deceased people from Bergamo to Modena, 202 Km. The bodies will be cremated there. The family members of the dead couldn’t assist their loved ones in their last hours, they died alone, surrounded by people wearing biohazard suits. Their relatives were notified about the demise by a phone call of the doctor, expressing his/her condolence."

No words.

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(edited)

I live in Auburn, WA...a city of about 70,000 that is 20 miles SE of Seattle. Here's a short report on what's going on around here. 

It is so much more quiet these days. Where there was noise, sirens occasionally, and rush hour traffic on the freeway nearby, it is now subdued. Like living in a little town in Iowa or something. Really weird. I decided to post some general notes and maybe a bit of humor on the situation. 

CovidTag.jpg.24ac0940d08b0dac5c489d736309e27f.jpg 

I hear sales of the old Stephen King book, The Stand, have been picking up lately at Amazon. I advise people to go for the fully unabridged 1985 version. Fortunately, the Corona virus is nothing like the disease depicted in the famous book. 

The panic buying here seems to have subsided, and the stores are pretty well stocked now. Personally, I have about six weeks of food, water, juices, and med supplies packed into a garage and two refrigerators. When I bought a new fridge last year, instead of tossing out the old one, (still worked) I just plugged it in out in the garage. Now I'm happy I did. 

Trump and the US Treasury say they are sending people checks. This is how it works, more or less: Anyone with a tax return from last year either gets a check mailed to them, or if you are hooked up with IRS to receive refunds electronically, it goes to that bank account. If you get Social Security, SSI, or some other government money each month, it goes to you that way. They want to do two payments, April and May. More likely is May and June. Pretty much everyone making under $85,000 will get money. Might be on a sliding scale, depending on where you fall into that range, but don't quote me on that. 

Of course...this means many of the homeless probably won't see a dime. 

I'm tired of watching friggin' TV and beginning to hate the internet. 

I had a drive-to-in-my-truck camping trip planned for the second weekend of April. Now I'm REALLY looking forward to it. Where I'm going, there IS no Corona unless bears carry it, and God help anyone foolish enough to approach my campsite. That's doubtful anyone will happen along, though. The places I go, the Google Map just says: UNKNOWN. View from the campsite is shown below. It's in the Olympic mountains west of Seattle. It's one of the most remote spots you can drive to in the Olympics and the road ends right there. No one goes there much except me. 

EveningViewSite2.jpg.c605c83dd5ce67bf49f2ead07fad0d06.jpg

When I see TV commercials with large crowds now, I think: "Boy, those were the good old days..."

If the government sends me any money, I might invest it in the stock market. Hell, if it goes any lower on the NYSE, you might be able to pick up shares of Microsoft for a buck apiece pretty soon. 

I watched a movie that seemed to predict the future. It starred Henry Fonda and they called it The Grapes of Wrath. Now I want to be a grape picker and a union organizer.

On a less humorous note:  The wife and I publish books, and have a part-time housecleaning business for mostly upscale customers. I thought our customers would tell us to stay home, due to the CDC recommendations. The opposite happened. Everyone wants us to come and not only clean their home...but sterilize as much of it as we can. We are doing this, but we now have some protocols. Most of them are never home when we work, and now NONE of them can be in the home. They have to inform us at once if anyone in their family may have been exposed, or if anyone comes into the home that may have been exposed, etc etc. 

It's a minor risk, but you have to make a living. This is us below. Kind of an old picture, but we still look pretty much the same.

I wish. B)
bobgaylasalo.jpg.81009c6b0ca00f2dad6da6b2ca257a49.jpg

Truck I am taking camping. A more recent picture. 1997 Nissan D21 King Cab. 2WD/AC/PS, 120,000 original. Restored to near new. NO you can't go with me. ^.^ Stay safe. Break out some board games. If you are an old person, learn how to play your kids' video games or buy a virtual reality setup that puts you on a beach in Hawaii or something. Cause you ain't going there for real...for a while. 

IN2nocaption.jpg.5cf76a6d79ef5e85e1ad0502584b3cf8.jpg

Edited by RobertMBlevins
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4 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Trump and the US Treasury say they are sending people checks. This is how it works, more or less: Anyone with a tax return from last year either gets a check mailed to them, or if you are hooked up with IRS to receive refunds electronically, it goes to that band account. If you get Social Security, SSI, or some other government money each month, it goes to you that way. They want to do two payments, April and May. More likely is May and June. Pretty much everyone making under $85,000 will get the money. 

Trump can say anything, but here is how it works: Laws are passed by the House, then by the Senate. Trump and the Treasury cannot decide to send out checks on their own. The purse strings are controlled by Congress.

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Just now, ryoder said:

Trump can say anything, but here is how it works: Laws are passed by the House, then by the Senate. Trump and the Treasury cannot decide to send out checks on their own. The purse strings are controlled by Congress.

That's true, but it looks like that's what they plan to do. The spending package is pretty much a done deal and has bi-partisan support. They actually want to start sending out the money within two weeks, for April and May. My guess is they will do it May and June. 

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Apparently as the restrictions on the economy are taking effect people who identify as R are starting to feel the preparations are a step too far. I predict enough of them will ignore the restrictions to really mess with the system. Only when things go badly will they take it seriously again. They were a couple weeks ago, but now that it is a pocketbook issue, not so much.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816501871/poll-as-coronavirus-spreads-fewer-americans-see-pandemic-as-a-real-threat

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(edited)
13 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Apparently as the restrictions on the economy are taking effect people who identify as R are starting to feel the preparations are a step too far. I predict enough of them will ignore the restrictions to really mess with the system. Only when things go badly will they take it seriously again. They were a couple weeks ago, but now that it is a pocketbook issue, not so much.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816501871/poll-as-coronavirus-spreads-fewer-americans-see-pandemic-as-a-real-threat

Hmm. Hard to say where this will go, or how FAR it will go. It could be that so many Americans are trying to follow the recommendations and guidelines that the spread of the pandemic WILL drop dramatically. I get the idea most people are trying to follow those recommendations. There is no way to make Corona just go away on a national basis, but if everyone works together, we could seriously flatten the curve and make it much less of a risk. 

The biggest problem I see isn't possibly CATCHING the disease. The biggest problem is whether the economy will go into a total crash-and-burn BECAUSE of the disease. This is far more likely than any other result of it. 

FYI: In some previous efforts to develop a vaccine for this flu or that one, it has taken as little as 6 months. Most of the experts are saying 12-18 months for Covid-19. If any of those experts are reading this now, then my suggestion is the development of such a vaccine needs to be fast-tracked by scientists and health organizations WORLDWIDE. 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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Just now, RobertMBlevins said:

The biggest problem I see isn't possibly CATCHING the disease. The biggest problem is whether the economy will go into a total crash-and-burn BECAUSE of the disease. This is far more likely than any other result of it. 

And to be blunt the epidemic will end one way or another.  It might kill 100K, it might kill 10 million - and a lot of that depends on the actions we take now.  So how much economic activity is worth a thousand lives?  A hundred thousand?  If you could eliminate all economic impact (except that caused by people dying) by doing absolutely nothing - is that worth losing .5% of our population?

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3 hours ago, airdvr said:

Still getting that feeling that we might be over reacting a bit.  CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.  Without testing everyone we don't really know the impact and we won't, perhaps ever.

To put this in perspective, assuming your flu numbers are correct, 490,000 hospitalizations over the duration of a flu season is a pretty low load for a country that has 160,000 ventilators. It's also about 1% of all that got the flu. So even if all 2018-19 flu hospitalizations required an ICU bed, when spread over 4-6 months it would not have come close to overwhelming the system. 

From the Diamond Princess cohort, ~50% of the 700 Covid-19 positives had symptoms, and IIRC, 30% required hospitalization, and half of them (15% of 700) needed an ICU bed with ventilator. But if 15% of just 35 M get Covid, (about 10% of US population), we're talking about 5 million needing an ICU at some point. (And is it reasonable to think we can limit this to just 10% of the population?) It would appear that we could only tolerate about 1 million or so people being infected at any one time to fill our existing ventilator capacity, unless we ramp up ICU beds and ventilators. (And what to do with non-Covid folks that would normally be occupying those beds? Estimates are that only 30% of them are available on average at any one time under normal circumstances.)

Italy reached the breaking point with official counts in the tens of thousands. Yes, case counts are way below reality due to testing constraints, but our trajectory is about 10 days behind Italy, and based on per capita ventilator numbers, maybe we have another 6-10 days before the US would have hit the breaking point had we waited as long as Italy did to react.

A lot is unknown and/or unclear, but hopefully the time we are buying will allow additional tools to come into play.  If nothing else, time produce more masks and hazmat suits so at least we keep our existing medical folks from getting taken out of action (permanently or for recovery) and acquire more ventilators, test kits, and increased hospital space so we can handle a higher load.  And more time to discover better treatments.

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(edited)

Right now, what the US population, as well as the Feds, are simply trying to BUY TIME. Time to flatten the curve on the spread of the disease, time to develop the vaccine, or at least an effective treatment. 

If the spread of Covid can be kept down to minimal levels, we will have time to do these things. And many lives will be saved. But the problem is more difficult than people think. Remember...about 19,000 people died from 'normal' flu in the 2018-19 period in the United States. And we had a vaccine. Covid is more dangerous, and instead of roughly a 1-200 chance of dying from it, you are looking at a 1-in-25 chance. And no vaccine. People are going to die until they get a handle on the whole thing, and 12-18 months to get a vaccine out there for Covid is just WAY too long. 

They can't force everyone to stay in their homes, or avoid work, or cancel schools, sports, gatherings, etc forever. And even if they did that anyway...the results would be another Great Depression that could actually spread around the world very quickly. 

These scientists need to get off their dead butts, work together, receive whatever funding and assistance they require to beat this thing...and frickin' FAST. You cannot put the world on hold forever. 

I'm not The Prez, but if I were, this is what I would do:

  • Every top virologist in the country would be immediately recruited, put in the same facility, or a number of facilities across the country, and told they MUST develop a vaccine and quick. Cost not an object. Give them everything they ask for, any money they need, any equipment they require. 
  • Test subjects? I would offer immediate parole, or even Presidential Pardons, to inmates in Federal prison for volunteering as a test subject...as long as they were not violent offenders or considered really dangerous to the public. White collar criminals, some drug offenders, etc. 
  • At the same time, inform the drug companies that are capable of producing a finished vaccine (or treatment) to prepare, because they will be TOLD they will be working full time to produce that treatment or vaccine in mass quantities once it becomes available. 
Edited by RobertMBlevins

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5 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

These scientists need to get off their dead butts, work together, receive whatever funding and assistance they require to beat this thing...and frickin' FAST. You cannot put the world on hold forever.

I've been saying this non-stop. For example, BillVon's a genius why is he allowed to have a normal day to day life while we're fretting about this stuff? That makes no sense. Time to round up these slackers, I say, and set them to work!

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2 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

I've been saying this non-stop. For example, BillVon's a genius why is he allowed to have a normal day to day life while we're fretting about this stuff? That makes no sense. Time to round up these slackers, I say, and set them to work!

There are several teams working both cooperatively and separately flat out on a vaccine. Testing for both safety and efficacy will take a year even if they are immediately successful.

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4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

There are several teams working both cooperatively and separately flat out on a vaccine. Testing for both safety and efficacy will take a year even if they are immediately successful.

Fine. But I want names, home addresses and cell phone numbers so I can keep up on progress. As it is now I have to wander from brewery to brewery looking for BillVon to get answers and that's not right.

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(edited)

My apologies for quoting some incorrect numbers back there about the 2018-19 influenza season. Real numbers on an approximate level are about 35 million getting the flu, and about 35,000 don't recover. 

That year, your chances of death were about 1 in 1,000, or about 1/10th of one percent. Pretty good odds you live. 

With Corona, it is about 4%, which (I guess) is about forty times worse. 

If you run up the numbers on Corona to 35 million people eventually getting the disease, you can extrapolate that approximately 40 times worse as well. 

I guess...

35,000 people died from influenza that season. Forty times that figure is 1.4 million people. 

The spread of Corona could actually be a lot worse than the 'normal' spread of flu in a typical year, because so many people take the flu shots each year. But right now there IS no 'shot' you can get for this virus, so if it gets out of hand, nobody has any shot protecting them, although most victims will still recover. But the sheer numbers of it all is still frightening. If it spreads beyond a certain point, no one will really be able to stop it from spreading further. Without the defense of a flu shot for Corona, there are an unlimited number of people spreading the disease. 

Victims, if it gets out of hand, could easily double or triple past the usual 35 million flu victims. Suppose it reaches nearly half the country before they get the vaccine out there? Let's say it reaches 150 million eventual victims, and yes...96% of them will recover. That is the good part. 

The bad part is if that happened, the total deaths would exceed six million Americans. That is roughly the total number of people in Los Angeles, and Houston...combined. 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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27 minutes ago, RobertMBlevins said:

 

  • Test subjects? I would offer immediate parole, or even Presidential Pardons, to inmates in Federal prison for volunteering as a test subject...as long as they were not violent offenders or considered really dangerous to the public. White collar criminals, some drug offenders, etc. 

 

Agreed.

 

While we are on the topic of prisons--and even more so jails--it seems to me that jails present a huge problem in terms of beating this thing. In a jail you have very overcrowded conditions which seem to me to be prime breeding grounds for spreading this virus. It is especially a problem in a jail because a jail, moreso than a prison, is run by the county and has a bit of a revolving door. These inmates then come into contact with correctional officers who in turn come into contact with the larger community. Big problem.

 

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1 minute ago, airdvr said:

We're quoting numbers with no real way of knowing if they are valid.  We don't know the total number of cases but we know the number of dead.  You can't quote percentages without both.

Well, you are right about that. Hard to put a percentage on 'how much chance you will die from it' without knowing the total number of REAL victims. That is true. Believe it or not, I think the most trustworthy numbers might be from China, or from countries that ARE getting a handle on it better than the ones who haven't. 

You are right though. Too early to quote solid numbers. Within a month we will know much more than we do now. The death rate from Covid could be lower than the current quotes of 4% or so...if the number of victims is much higher. And we don't the answer to that yet. 

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