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gowlerk

covid-19

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8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The known USA death toll from the virus is 675,000 as of today. Anecdotal evidence may lead you to discount that fact. One in 500 Americas are fatalities. Not enough suffering for you still?  

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID. Regardless of the number it's too many.

Based on the CDC stats one has a 12.9% chance of getting COVID and a 0.21% chance of dying.

It would be interesting to see the stats recalculated for calendar 2021. If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk.

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1 hour ago, billeisele said:

the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID.

This is news to me. Do you have a reference? The CDC excess death estimates jive with the official numbers pretty well.

 

1 hour ago, billeisele said:

If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk

Trying to predict an outcome that is dependent on a large number of factors that we don't fully understand, by looking at only a single factor, is kinda silly.

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1 hour ago, billeisele said:

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID. Regardless of the number it's too many.

Tô go along with that are the people who died early in the pandemic who weren’t classified as Covid because they died at home, and their authorities assumed all Covid deaths were in hospitals. They probably don’t balance out, but error is rarely only in one direction. 
It’s nearly always safer to ascribe problems to error than to conspiracy. 
Wendy P. 

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16 hours ago, base698 said:

Yeah and all the paralyzed, brain damaged, and amputees from skydiving don't show up in fatal stats.  I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.

So you just assumed two different things were the same for no other reason than it was convenient. You can't seriously think this is a reasonable approach.

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID.

And yet more people are dying than would be considered normal (excess death rate) even when accounting for COVID fatalities. If it isn't COVID, something is killing people. Do you think it is something unknown? I mean the discrepancy is even bigger if there are that many deaths which got classified as COVID and really weren't COVID.

Do you think maybe aliens are snatching up Americans and the anal probing is going awry?

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2 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

And yet more people are dying than would be considered normal (excess death rate) even when accounting for COVID fatalities. If it isn't COVID, something is killing people. Do you think it is something unknown? I mean the discrepancy is even bigger if there are that many deaths which got classified as COVID and really weren't COVID.

Do you think maybe aliens are snatching up Americans and the anal probing is going awry?

Well, GOP governors are encouraging their supporters die to "own the Libs".  So maybe the old people were dying in excess last year to spite Trump.

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(edited)
3 hours ago, nwt said:

So you just assumed two different things were the same for no other reason than it was convenient. You can't seriously think this is a reasonable approach.

It's a little more complicated.  I'd argue skydiving is much more dangerous than we would like to think since incident reports aren't required for non fatals.  Long covid comes up a lot, rather than dismiss it I thought I'd assume it was at least as bad as the disfigurement and suicides from life changing injuries sustained skydiving.  

I think that's reasonable and fair yes. The alternative response being, Hur dur muh long covid.  Otherwise maybe you can argue that long covid is somehow more prevalent and/or worse than skydivers who've had limbs amputated, brain damaged or ended up as quadriplegic.

Edited by base698

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4 hours ago, kallend said:

And another Herman Cain winner:

He was an IT guy for the Florida GOP, and they now can't file their legally-required FEC paperwork.  They will "struggle" to get it done, but apparently don't have the knowhow to get the IT work done.

Thoughts and prayers.

He also apparently infected his wife and his daughter before he died.

And of course now the conspiracy theories start.  From a GOP friend of his, Jason Kimball:

“There’s a dire situation going on right now... that I don’t think anyone is aware of, and I have firsthand knowledge of it. They’re intubating everyone entering Tampa General Hospital as a first line of action. They’re using fatality-treatment protocol, and I think that the city council really needs to do an investigation... They’re intubating people illegally... When you call 911 and you go to that hospital, you’re going into a bad situation.”

Apparently since the hospital intubated Prentiss, they did something that . . . killed him?  Put him in a "bad situation?"  Something.  Whatever it is, it's those damn libs again.

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2 hours ago, billvon said:

Bet you $20 that at one point he said that COVID vaccines might make sense for unhealthy at-risk people, but not him.

Of course he is having a chuckle Because he thinks we don’t realize the picture he posted is actually of an actor with a similar name

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7 hours ago, base698 said:

It's a little more complicated.  I'd argue skydiving is much more dangerous than we would like to think since incident reports aren't required for non fatals.  Long covid comes up a lot, rather than dismiss it I thought I'd assume it was at least as bad as the disfigurement and suicides from life changing injuries sustained skydiving.  

I think that's reasonable and fair yes. The alternative response being, Hur dur muh long covid.  Otherwise maybe you can argue that long covid is somehow more prevalent and/or worse than skydivers who've had limbs amputated, brain damaged or ended up as quadriplegic.

The unvaccinated endanger both themselves and other members of the general public too.  We've already had many people turned away from ICUs because they were full of unvaccinated morons.   I'm not aware of irresponsible skydivers killing members of the general public or filling ICUs to capacity.

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11 hours ago, nwt said:
13 hours ago, billeisele said:

If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk

Trying to predict an outcome that is dependent on a large number of factors that we don't fully understand, by looking at only a single factor, is kinda silly.

Agreed, NWT, especially not taking into account that the delta variant is affecting different people. 

Bill, you may recall that during most of 2020 the conventional wisdom (supported by the studies) indicated that young people were much less likely to suffer effects of COVID.  Now we have kids in ICUs and dying just about as readily as adults. 

Also with the OG version, the vaccine indicated a near perfect rate of virus resistance, with no observed ability to transmit if exposed.  Now what was termed a "breakthrough" infection is becoming more commonplace (though death rates are still but a tiny fraction of the non-vaccinated deaths), and we're back to masking because even vaccinated individuals can transmit this variant.

Bottom line is that there are way more factors that go into determining the risk to the population as a whole.  And I still fail to understand the resistance to doing our part to help our neighbors and our community.  I'm constantly amazed at the people who feel my mother's life is expendable just so they don't have to feel "uncomfortable" wearing a simple device that helps them keep their germs to themselves. 

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12 minutes ago, TriGirl said:

And I still fail to understand the resistance to doing our part to help our neighbors and our community.  I'm constantly amazed at the people who feel my mother's life is expendable just so they don't have to feel "uncomfortable" wearing a simple device that helps them keep their germs to themselves. 

If you could sum up the position of both sides on this in one word, the word for the anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers would be "me" and the word for the vaccine advocates would be "us."

 

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15 hours ago, winsor said:

I am also impressed by the approval of Remdesivir, which has nasty side effects and no improvement of outcome, while medications with hundreds of millions of doses taken safely are, of course, strictly proscribed.

This is true of a great many treatments.  Keep in mind that chemotherapy, a truly nasty/dangerous course of treatment with no guaranteed outcome, is prescribed for some cancers, whereas viagra, a very safe medication, is not.

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1 hour ago, TriGirl said:

Bill, you may recall that during most of 2020 the conventional wisdom (supported by the studies) indicated that young people were much less likely to suffer effects of COVID.  Now we have kids in ICUs and dying just about as readily as adults. 

I've not seen this anywhere but the worst of all propaganda equating kids contracting covid with being equal to ICU visits.

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(edited)
2 hours ago, kallend said:

The unvaccinated endanger both themselves and other members of the general public too. 

A vaccine so good it doesn't protect the people who get it.

Interested in Oofscience rebuttal of leaky vaccines not being the cause of evolution in virus due to selection pressures.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses

Edited by base698

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1 hour ago, base698 said:

A vaccine so good it doesn't protect the people who get it.

Interested in Oofscience rebuttal of leaky vaccines not being the cause of evolution in virus due to selection pressures.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses

The statistics of vaccinated versus unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths seems to indicate that while not perfect or without risk the shots are working.  I work in health care and have yet to have to help roll a vaccinated person while guarding their ventilator circuit and drips in the hopes that being prone stops them from dying.

While we may end up with herd immunity or something close to it (wishful thinking) there may be a variant or strain for which vaccinations are ineffective.  The truth is we won't know for some time, but comparing a different pathogenic structures mutation in fowl with a totally different vaccine and delivery systems to the one with humans likely won't get us any closer.

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