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gowlerk

covid-19

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12 hours ago, billeisele said:

Good morning. So these two doctors have differing opinions or experiences. No need to argue that. What is interesting is that there are historically reliable stats on deaths from various causes. In 2020 there was a substantial decrease in deaths from cancer, heart disease, flu and just about everything else that people die from. Draw your own conclusion.

That's right.  Flu - decreased because everyone was wearing masks.  Most diseases - decreased because surgeries were decreased.  (Many heart attacks happen during or after surgery, for example.)

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I try to stay away politics on this issue as I don't see it as a blue or red issue.

That's like saying "Look, everyone knows the election was stolen and Trump really won by a landslide.  But I do NOT want to talk about politics."

COVID denial is, almost 100%, a political issue.  So is anti-vaxxing.  ~90% of democrats are planning on getting the vaccine; ~40% of republicans are.

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The PCR test can't determine the strain, it requires a DNA test. 

SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, not a DNA virus.  The PCR test looks for the spike protein antigen which is common to all SARS-CoV-2 strains.

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He stated that at least half of the new COVID infections result from injection failures.

No idea what an injection failure is.  Is it a failure to produce antibodies?  If so, yes, that can happen.  A relative got the vaccine and did not generate any antibodies since she was going through chemo at the time.

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There was a Navy ship with 3,800 vaccinated folks on board. A little over 100 got COVID. Not a huge percentage but the point is it wasn't reported by the media. That type data is being ignored in favor of the media hype.

?? The vaccine is only ~60% effective at preventing infection with the Delta variant.  It is ~90% effective at preventing serious illness and/or death.  Did you not know that?

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17 hours ago, Stumpy said:

The irony score of this coming from you is pretty high.

Yet I am still the only actual medical professional in this thread. I spend 50 hours a week in a hospital. How often are you there? Anyone who argues 'some rando PCP said this, so it must be true' clearly hasent spent much time around doctors.

(Moderator warning - Westerly has demonstrated that he is not a reliable source of information on COVID-19 and the issues surrounding it.)

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Those of us who have behaved responsibly by wearing masks and, since the vaccines became available, getting vaccinated, should not be held hostage by those who can’t be bothered to do the same, or who are too deluded by misinformation or desire to "own the libs".  .

The more inconvenient we make life for the recklessly unvaccinated, the better our own lives will be.  Time for some serious shaming.

As far as I'm concerned,  Darwin can take the recklessly or willfully unvaccinated and good riddance.

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In a somewhat amusing development, the idea of 'fake vaccination documents' has finally come up in the media.

Canada is allowing foreign nationals to enter, provided they have proof of vaccination.

So a couple of idiots faked up their 'proof' and visited Toronto...

And got caught.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/two-travellers-from-u-s-fined-20-000-each-for-fake-vaccination-documents-1.5529627?cid=sm%3Atrueanthem%3Actvnews%3Apost&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A New Content (Feed)&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR21blKB7aim0ZOuaVGFBuLFTUiD0qk0ol3637d8IW1RTp4EYLdXO84VFjg

Oops.

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1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

So a couple of idiots faked up their 'proof' and visited Toronto...

If a Canadian were to try that sort of thing south bound I don't know what the fine would be. But for sure it would come with at least a five year ban on entry.

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(edited)

Remember last winter, before the vaccine was widely available?

Cases were soaring, ICUs were full, records for all sorts of bad things were being set.

The worst one week number for new cases was back in January, with the week ending Jan 10 seeing 111, 574 new cases.
With low vax rates, idiotic rules not allowing places to refuse the unvaxed or even ask about vax status, Florida is again seeing a large spike in new cases.
Roughly 20% (one in five) new cases is in Florida.

110, 724 last week.

Deaths and hospitalizations are nowhere near where they were last winter, because those who are vaccinated are waaaaay less likely to end up in the hospital or dead. 

Edit to add: Link to the story I got the numbers from. Oops.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-florida-coronavirus-friday-july-30-20210731-vj3bsqocabb4xg2fms7zbeenjq-story.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Breaking News&utm_content=3701627691438&fbclid=IwAR305-jSmPchz6ex8UhJrpZO5SR1zcZmJGjB8QUdbxF9b5L8FzKET4AlyL0#nws=true

Edited by wolfriverjoe

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(edited)
19 hours ago, kallend said:

Those of us who have behaved responsibly by wearing masks and, since the vaccines became available, getting vaccinated, should not be held hostage by those who can’t be bothered to do the same, or who are too deluded by misinformation or desire to "own the libs".  .

The more inconvenient we make life for the recklessly unvaccinated, the better our own lives will be.  Time for some serious shaming.

As far as I'm concerned,  Darwin can take the recklessly or willfully unvaccinated and good riddance.

Exactly. Fuck them. I am tired of getting speeding tickets because someone else was speeding. Time to cut the dead weight and let those who want to battle the virus 'the natural way' have their wishes. At this point I flat out dont give a shit what happens to the anti-vaxxers and honestly no one should. Those vaccinated are protected so I say open things full up, no restrictions. Let nature do its thing. Sometimes the hard way is the only way people learn.Insert other media

Edited by Westerly

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On 7/30/2021 at 9:12 AM, wolfriverjoe said:

Just out of curiosity, why do you believe this one "retired public health doctor" and refuse to believe thousands of current doctors?

You do understand that the flu is a virus, and all the measures people were taking to prevent the spread of Covid were also effective at preventing the spread of the flu, right?

And if all the "Fake Covid" deaths were from other, 'common causes', please explain the excess mortality.
Death rates have been reasonably steady for a while. 
Yet, during the pandemic, there were a huge number of deaths. Far above average.

And this didn't just happen in the US, it happened world wide. The US is easy to find stats on because we track deaths quite well. 

Look at India a couple months ago. They were cremating people in parking lots because the formal facilities were overwhelmed.

It's been reported that Africa is seeing far more Covid deaths than are being reported. It's not easy to determine for sure, mainly because they don't keep track of dead people as well. 
South Africa does probably the best job on the continent, and as of May, they reported 55k Covid deaths, yet over 130k excess deaths.
Estimates vary, but many are thinking that Covid likely caused about 85% of those excess deaths.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safricas-covid-19-death-toll-much-higher-than-official-tally-report-2021-05-13/

He worked in a statewide system and at the end of his career was the acting Director. He was the Deputy Director for a few years prior to that. He was stating what he knew from first hand experience.

Another statement was, "You'll most likely see the death rate decline as the most vulnerable die off." My point on that comment was it would be interesting to see the data for a period like 2021, presuming that many of the most vulnerable would have died in 2020. The stats we've been discussing are data from the start of the problem. They show a 1.7% death rate of those that had COVID, and 0.18% of the overall population.

Yes on the flu comments. While it may be possible, it's difficult to believe that flu deaths were almost zero.

No question that COVID is the primary cause of many deaths. The unknown question is, of the total deaths reported as COVID, how many weren't primarily COVID but from other causes where COVID "pushed them over the edge." Regardless of that number, the chance of dying from COVID, if one is otherwise healthy, is quite low, and lower than the overall statistics.

Yes, some parts of the world are taking, what we consider, drastic measures. In the case of India, wonder if deaths are occurring in high density poor areas with almost no hygiene?

No doubt there are COVID deaths not being reported. Russia and N. Korea certainly aren't reporting. 

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5 hours ago, kallend said:

Florida reported a record number of COVID cases and 30% of all cases nationally. So moRon DeSantis decides to overrule local school boards and outlaw mask mandates in schools.

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-01 at 07.26.10.png

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

No question that COVID is the primary cause of many deaths. The unknown question is, of the total deaths reported as COVID, how many weren't primarily COVID but from other causes where COVID "pushed them over the edge."

If COVID pushed them over the edge, then it was COVID that killed them. Some of those people would have died anyway, but that doesn't negate the fact that many of those teetering would have continued to teeter, or even improve with newer therapies.

We're all going to die some day; but if someone kills their very elderly and sick neighbor, they're charged with murder.

Wendy P.

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(edited)
25 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

If COVID pushed them over the edge, then it was COVID that killed them.

Rationalization is a powerful tool for some who choose to misuse it. You can justify a lot of things with it. Maybe there could be a committee to decide which of the people who could no longer keep breathing died of covid and which ones were just taking up space waiting to die anyway.

Edited by gowlerk

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

He worked in a statewide system and at the end of his career was the acting Director. He was the Deputy Director for a few years prior to that. He was stating what he knew from first hand experience.

Another statement was, "You'll most likely see the death rate decline as the most vulnerable die off." My point on that comment was it would be interesting to see the data for a period like 2021, presuming that many of the most vulnerable would have died in 2020. The stats we've been discussing are data from the start of the problem. They show a 1.7% death rate of those that had COVID, and 0.18% of the overall population.

Yes on the flu comments. While it may be possible, it's difficult to believe that flu deaths were almost zero.

No question that COVID is the primary cause of many deaths. The unknown question is, of the total deaths reported as COVID, how many weren't primarily COVID but from other causes where COVID "pushed them over the edge." Regardless of that number, the chance of dying from COVID, if one is otherwise healthy, is quite low, and lower than the overall statistics.

Yes, some parts of the world are taking, what we consider, drastic measures. In the case of India, wonder if deaths are occurring in high density poor areas with almost no hygiene?

No doubt there are COVID deaths not being reported. Russia and N. Korea certainly aren't reporting. 

Thank you for the response.

If he was a 'state level department head', he wouldn't have much direct experience. 

The number of ER & ICU docs & nurses that have been screaming at people to take this seriously is a lot more convincing to me.

I agree that the most vulnerable were, well, most vulnerable. That's why nursing homes were hit so hard in the beginning. Fortunately, a lot of them took measures to keep it out, and kept their residents from catching it and dying. That age group was the first to get the vaccine, and as a result, deaths in that age group are among the lowest, instead of the highest.


Death rate varies a lot. Depends on what population group, what sort of health care is available, even reporting capabilities. Early on, New York realized that the total death rate (all causes, just counting bodies) was elevated. The excess mortality was beyond the excess caused by confirmed Covid. They came to the conclusion that many of those deaths were likely from Covid, even though they weren't confirmed to be.
Average population, with decent medical care, runs somewhere between one and two percent.
Take away the medical care (India for example) and the number goes up considerably. Maybe 10% with zero care. 

Flu deaths were quite low. Pediatric deaths have run 150-200 for the past few years.
2020-2021 had ONE reported death. Not quite 'zero', but close.
CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2020-2021/PedFlu05.html
Professor Kallend has stated that he usually caught 3 or 4 colds per year, but the 'anti-viral' measures put in place to mitigate the spread of Covid kept him from catching any. I'm in a similar position. No sickness whatever in the past year and a half. 

 

Primary cause along with subsidiary causes (Comorbidities, which I'm thinking is a term you know) can be a bit confusing.
Wendy had it right. Regardless of what other conditions the person had, if they wouldn't have died at that time without catching Covid, then Covid caused the death.
Just because cancer or something made them more vulnerable, that doesn't mean it wasn't Covid that killed them.
That might be one reason the cancer deaths dropped.
People that would have died in weeks or months from the cancer died in days from Covid. 
That doesn't change the fact that they died from Covid.

India saw huge numbers of deaths a month or so ago because they were the first to see the Delta variant. They have low vax rates. Health care isn't as advanced or widely available. It wasn't just 'poor areas with almost no hygiene', it was everywhere. 
The numbers have dropped rather dramatically, as have the numbers in the UK. 
There's no good understanding of why. 
It does give hope that the Delta variant outbreak (resurgence, fourth wave, whatever) we're seeing here in the US will wane in the coming weeks. I hope so.

CDC is now recommending masks for everyone (vax or not) indoors where the spread is 'significant' or 'high'. As of Friday, that includes all of Wisconsin. So I've gone back to the mask in stores and such. Yay.

I absolutely hate the things. But the idea of catching or spreading it is something I hate much more.

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(edited)

Fascinating that the very folks who are most adamant that the government should not tell them what to do wrt masks and vaccines ("my body, my choice") are for the most part the same ones who are adamant that the government should tell a pregnant woman what she may or may not do with her body.

Edited by kallend
Spelin'
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12 minutes ago, kallend said:

Fascinating that the very folks who are most adamant that the government should not tell them what to do wrt masks and vaccines ("my body, my choice") are for the most part the same ones who are adamant that the government should tell a pregnant woman what she may or may not do with her body.

Oh, come on Professor.

In the first case, those people are being told to do something they don't want to do.

In the second, they are telling others what to do.
 

Nothing surprising or fascinating about hypocrisy.

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2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Professor Kallend has stated that he usually caught 3 or 4 colds per year, but the 'anti-viral' measures put in place to mitigate the spread of Covid kept him from catching any. I'm in a similar position. No sickness whatever in the past year and a half...


CDC is now recommending masks for everyone (vax or not) indoors where the spread is 'significant' or 'high'. As of Friday, that includes all of Wisconsin. So I've gone back to the mask in stores and such. Yay.

I absolutely hate the things. But the idea of catching or spreading it is something I hate much more.

I too hadn’t had any illness since before the pandemic began. My county opened up fully back in June, and with the utmost confidence in my fully vaccinated immune system I went directly to the local pub. For the first time in months I smelled someone else’s halitosis while I was there. I forgot how much that sucked. Three days later I came down with a nasty head cold so I was out of work for a few days. I tested negative for covid thankfully, but that was one of the worst colds I’ve had. I went back to masking after that and continued to do so anytime I was indoors.
 

I’m at SFO right now, masked up of course, getting ready to go meet some of my family in Nashville. I have no idea how things will be when I get there but I generally feel indifferent as to whether I contribute to the spread while I’m in that town. My entire family has gotten their shots. When I return to San Mateo county and it’s 87% vaccinated population I plan to immediately get tested at the local site in my neighborhood. I sure do want to protect my community at least.

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On 7/31/2021 at 8:57 AM, kallend said:

Those of us who have behaved responsibly by wearing masks and, since the vaccines became available, getting vaccinated, should not be held hostage by those who can’t be bothered to do the same, or who are too deluded by misinformation or desire to "own the libs".  .

The more inconvenient we make life for the recklessly unvaccinated, the better our own lives will be.  Time for some serious shaming.

As far as I'm concerned,  Darwin can take the recklessly or willfully unvaccinated and good riddance.

People are willing to go through a number of diagnostic tests and procedures to prevent or treat disease or ailments including having a camera shoved up their ass yet they won't get vaccinated for something that may make them seriously ill or kill them.

Oh, "it is not FDA approved", well neither are your beer or cigarettes.

Sorry for the rant.

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On 7/30/2021 at 10:20 AM, SkyDekker said:

Let's just take cause of death out of it all together.

During the period January 26th, 2020 - October 3rd, 2020, 360,000 more people died than the average of the 5 years prior for that period. (The COVID death count for that period was 209,000).

A LOT more people died in 2020 than what historical averages would suggest, something called excess death rate. Now, you may think that has nothing to do with COVID, but that is a pretty weird opinion to have.

There is also the indirect deaths caused by COVID. People who killed themselves due to the mental strains of the endless lockdowns and lost job opportunities. In Japan, for a period, suicide killed substantially more people than COVID did.

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(edited)
On 8/1/2021 at 3:39 AM, wmw999 said:

Some of those people would have died anyway

Correction, all of them would have died anyway. Every human on earth is born with a terminal condition--it's called humans have a limited lifespan. That kind of makes me laugh when the Trumpsters try to argue COVID deaths as invalid by the premise that 'they were going to die anyway'. As opposed to what, living forever?

Edited by Westerly

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On 7/30/2021 at 2:11 PM, billeisele said:

Wonder why the MDs aren't promoting healthy habits and immune boosting? Yeah, not much money in that. 

On the contrary, there's a LOT of money in that - the global health and wellness food market was valued at 707.12 billion U.S. dollars in 2016 and is projected to increase to 811.82 billion U.S. dollars by 2021.

Seriously, stop demonising doctors and nurses as being money-chasing sociopaths. You're sitting behind your computer posting about the pandemic, while doctors and nurses who battle to keep covid patients alive and losing - and even dying - and you dare to imply that they only care about money. Do you only care about money?

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On 8/1/2021 at 10:14 AM, wolfriverjoe said:

Flu deaths were quite low. Pediatric deaths have run 150-200 for the past few years.

My son was about four months old at the start of the pandemic. He hasn't been sick yet. That is all due to a greatly reduced risk of exposure. He didn't go to stores or restaurants we may have taken him to if it wasn't for the pandemic, and my wife and I had a lower risk of exposure ourselves, which is probably how most flu and cold transmission happens with infants... parent to child.

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(edited)
On 7/30/2021 at 10:32 PM, Westerly said:

Yet I am still the only actual medical professional in this thread. I spend 50 hours a week in a hospital. How often are you there? Anyone who argues 'some rando PCP said this, so it must be true' clearly hasent spent much time around doctors.

(Moderator warning - Westerly has demonstrated that he is not a reliable source of information on COVID-19 and the issues surrounding it.)

I just spit my coffee out. :rofl: Good one DZ mods.

Rest assured all of us would go to the hospital cafeteria lady that chain smokes for medical advise before we relied on any of the drivel he posts.

 

Edited by DougH

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(edited)
4 hours ago, olofscience said:
  On 7/30/2021 at 9:11 AM, billeisele said:

Wonder why the MDs aren't promoting healthy habits and immune boosting? Yeah, not much money in that. 

4 hours ago, olofscience said:

On the contrary, there's a LOT of money in that - the global health and wellness food market was valued at 707.12 billion U.S. dollars in 2016 and is projected to increase to 811.82 billion U.S. dollars by 2021.

Seriously, stop demonising doctors and nurses as being money-chasing sociopaths. You're sitting behind your computer posting about the pandemic, while doctors and nurses who battle to keep covid patients alive and losing - and even dying - and you dare to imply that they only care about money. Do you only care about money?

Exactly.

Doctor's have been telling people to eat better, lose weight, and exercise. Do you really think individual Doctor's don't want healthy patients? 

The population at large doesn't care, and is often willfully ignorant. 

The medical community overall is focused around treatment and not prevention, and Doctor's aren't well trained in nutrition, but this is a systemic issue, not some grand conspiracy to keep people sick so individual MD's can get more pennies on the dollar after they get the insurance haircut. 

It isn't the fault of individual doctors that the USA is filled with pre-diabetic fatties that can't moderate their fast food intake.

You can't get a large percentage of these people to take the easy button, with the vaccine, and yet you think these Mc' dumbasses are just sitting there thirsting for nutritional and medical advise that will require discipline and hard work, as if they would be healthy if only these Black Hat doctor's weren't keeping that information suppressed. 

What a joke.

 

 

Edited by DougH

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