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gowlerk

covid-19

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20 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

On a similar note, people in Missouri are realizing that getting vaccinated is a good idea. But they're afraid of their friends & family finding out...

So they wear disguises. 

Really.

https://news.yahoo.com/people-missouri-wearing-disguises-vaccinated-220338718.html

Yes, well, I can relate. I mean, I have to confess I wore a mask when I got vaccinated.

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On 7/21/2021 at 7:00 AM, wmw999 said:

And if you recover, insurance should take into account whether you refused the vaccine. 
Wendy P. 

Sure ,the problem with this though is most people who end up in the hospital are there by their own fault. Injured? Well, thats your fault, you should have stayed home where it's safe. Heart disease? Maybe you should have ate healthier. Diabetes? Maybe you should have exercised more.  Cancer? Maybe you should have smoked less. ect. ect. ect. I know plenty of people who would argue that anyone who is stupid enough to jump out of an airplane should have to pay their own medical bills if they get hurt.

Edited by Westerly

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Had an enlightening conversation with a retired public health doctor. He said that almost everyone that died in 2020 was classified as a COVID death if they had, or were suspected to have had, COVID. All the old people that had cancer, heart disease, or anything else that old people die from were classified as COVID deaths. There were virtually no flu deaths or deaths from those common causes in 2020. He said, "all those people were going to die anyway, they weren't killed by COVID." The death stats are inflated at least 30% maybe 60-70%. If you take that into consideration then the risk of dying from COVID is actually less than a tenth of a percent.
 
Looking at the US government reported stats: Population 328 million, covid cases 33.8 million, deaths 604,252. That equates to a 10.3% chance of getting COVID, 1.7% chance of dying if you get it, and 0.18% chance of dying from it in the US. Certainly these numbers would be worse without vaccines but no one really knows.
 
The lack of credible info and outright lies creates mistrust. There are a high percentage of people in the US that don't want to take a chance with their health. They see that, to some degree, the vaccine isn't working. They see the misinformation and lies, and that breeds mistrust. They see the negative outcomes that some are experiencing from the vaccine. They understand the stats and see that the risk of a negative outcome from COVID is less than 0.1%. These same folks are doing other things to stay safe.

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6 minutes ago, billeisele said:
Had an enlightening conversation with a retired public health doctor.
 
Blah blah blah. . .

So all those epidemiologists, virologists, genome sequencers, ER docs, ER nurses, coroners, medical examiners, pathologists, etc. are engaged on one huge conspiracy, but your good buddy has it all figured out.

Tell it to Herman Cain, he thought that too.

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47 minutes ago, billeisele said:
Had an enlightening conversation with a retired public health doctor. He said that almost everyone that died in 2020 was classified as a COVID death if they had, or were suspected to have had, COVID.

I talked to an actual working primary care doctor and she said that's a load of bull.  They classify them by what their primary cause of death was, as always.  Died in a car accident while you have COVID?  Cause of death: trauma.  Died on a vent while struggling with a SARS-CoV-2 infection?  Cause of death: COVID.

Quote

The lack of credible info and outright lies creates mistrust. 

The manufacturing of fear, uncertainty and doubt creates mistrust; mistrust helps republican politicians score big donations and subsequently win elections.  "Fire Fauci!"  "We're dyin with Biden."   

Follow the money.

Quote

 They understand the stats and see that the risk of a negative outcome from COVID is less than 0.1%. These same folks are doing other things to stay safe.

Nope.   If they think that they do not understand.   Also, the anti-vaxxers are typically also the anti-maskers or the "COVID isn't real!" contingent - and so they are not going to be "doing other things to stay safe."  (Other than posting on Facebook about the 'plandemic.')

If you get COVID your odds of death are about 2%, as you mention above.  The chances of a negative outcome (i.e. serious disease, hospitalization, long COVID) are about 10%.  

If you are not vaccinated and haven't been infected before, you WILL get COVID.  Not "maybe."  Not "well if we reach herd immunity . . ." You WILL get it - and it will hopefully be the Delta strain, not an even worse strain like the Gamma strain (or whatever follows that.)  Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA head:  "Most people will either get vaccinated, or have been previously infected, or they will get this Delta variant.  And for most people who get this Delta variant, it's going to be the most serious virus that they get in their lifetime in terms of the risk of putting them in the hospital." 

So their risk of a negative outcome from COVID is closer to 10%.  And 2 out of every 100 of those people will end up dead.

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36 minutes ago, billvon said:

I talked to an actual working primary care doctor and she said that's a load of bull.

You use that sentence like it implies some level of authority. The general population may look to MDs as experts and among the smartes of us all, but in the medical world being an MD/ PCP doesent mean shit. The true 'experts' are surgeons and very experienced specialists. MD-PCPs and NPs are basically just garden gnomes comparatively. There are 'plenty' of MDs who are absolutely off their rocker and it's a complete misery how they even have a medical license to begin with. Being a PCP doesent mean you have it all figured out. Many barely have anything figured out and they have general knowledge of all medical subjects, but they are not experts in any specific field. That's why your average RN who, say, works in the NICU probably knows a shit load more about babies than most MDs who work in family medicine.

Edited by Westerly
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5 hours ago, Westerly said:

You use that sentence like it implies some level of authority. The general population may look to MDs as experts and among the smartes of us all, but in the medical world being an MD/ PCP doesent mean shit. The true 'experts' are surgeons and very experienced specialists. MD-PCPs and NPs are basically just garden gnomes comparatively. There are 'plenty' of MDs who are absolutely off their rocker and it's a complete misery how they even have a medical license to begin with. Being a PCP doesent mean you have it all figured out. Many barely have anything figured out and they have general knowledge of all medical subjects, but they are not experts in any specific field. That's why your average RN who, say, works in the NICU probably knows a shit load more about babies than most MDs who work in family medicine.

The irony score of this coming from you is pretty high.

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1 hour ago, mistercwood said:

Don't know why you guys are arguing with Bill as if those were his own words, and not clearly and obviously a copy-paste job from some social media post that struck a chord with him...

I copied it from a post I made elsewhere. They were my words. Didn't want to have to retype everything.

Edited by billeisele
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My question would be what were his sources and why does he think that? Because, well, I'm also related to a retired public health doctor (CDC and all that), and her take is entirely different.

Yes, there is some cooking of the numbers to secure funding -- that happens in nearly every single business in the country, whether it's a public entity to secure funding, or creative accouting to legally escape taxes. I know that around here the majority of the COVID deaths listed COVID as the precipitating event -- i.e. yes, the guys at the Soldier's Home were old and generally ill (why else would they be in a retirement hospital), but 75 of them died within a month or so of each other, with contributing factors like understaffing meaning that workers were pressured to come in even if they were sick. In addition, the ventilation system in the building was substandard, and the more crowded the patients were (due to understaffing some wards were combined), the more likely they were to die.

It was the public health doctor's retired infection control nurse wife who provided this specific information; she was contracted to come in and help them get some control over the pandemic in their facility after the bulk of the deaths, and she wrote a very comprehensive report for the state (which is now finally going to fund a replacement for that facility).

Some people see a single case of cheating as a reason to go to unbelievable expense to stop that cheating -- but generally only if it suits their needs. Marginal behavior that they or people/institutions they identify with is simply "exploiting the rules," marginal behavior that they don't identify with, or that are engaged in by "other" groups, is cheating.

Wendy P.

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New York has five Covid patients hospitalized per 100,000 people; Florida, where Gov. MoRon DeSantis barred businesses from requiring that their patrons show proof of vaccination, has 34.

Missouri is experiencing one of the worst current Covid outbreaks, yet on Tuesday the St. Louis County Council voted to end a mask mandate introduced by the county executive.

Stupid is as stupid does.

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8 hours ago, billvon said:

I talked to an actual working primary care doctor and she said that's a load of bull.  They classify them by what their primary cause of death was, as always. 

The manufacturing of fear, uncertainty and doubt creates mistrust; mistrust helps republican politicians score big donations and subsequently win elections.  "Fire Fauci!"  "We're dyin with Biden."   

Follow the money.

Nope.   If they think that they do not understand.   Also, the anti-vaxxers are typically also the anti-maskers or the "COVID isn't real!" contingent - and so they are not going to be "doing other things to stay safe."  (Other than posting on Facebook about the 'plandemic.')

If you get COVID your odds of death are about 2%, as you mention above.  The chances of a negative outcome (i.e. serious disease, hospitalization, long COVID) are about 10%.  

If you are not vaccinated and haven't been infected before, you WILL get COVID.  Not "maybe."  Not "well if we reach herd immunity . . ." You WILL get it - and it will hopefully be the Delta strain, not an even worse strain like the Gamma strain (or whatever follows that.)  Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA head:  "Most people will either get vaccinated, or have been previously infected, or they will get this Delta variant.  And for most people who get this Delta variant, it's going to be the most serious virus that they get in their lifetime in terms of the risk of putting them in the hospital." 

So their risk of a negative outcome from COVID is closer to 10%.  And 2 out of every 100 of those people will end up dead.

Good morning. So these two doctors have differing opinions or experiences. No need to argue that. What is interesting is that there are historically reliable stats on deaths from various causes. In 2020 there was a substantial decrease in deaths from cancer, heart disease, flu and just about everything else that people die from. Draw your own conclusion.

I try to stay away politics on this issue as I don't see it as a blue or red issue. I also try and stay away from the minority fringe groups like antivaxxers.

Follow the money is right. Phizer is certainly doing well with 2nd Q earnings of $8 billion (up 59%) and expected to hit $35 for the year from vaccine sales. Wonder why the MDs aren't promoting healthy habits and immune boosting? Yeah, not much money in that. 

The data refutes your statement that the odds of death are ~2%. That data includes the old, frail, those with significant pre-existing health issues and those that died from something else but had COVID. The CDC reports that approximately 90% of the severe COVID patients had one or more underlying health conditions. It would be interesting to look at the current data, let's say, starting in 2021 and recalculate the numbers. Bottom line is if one is relatively healthy, and they get COVID, the odds of death are markedly low.

The PCR test can't determine the strain, it requires a DNA test. They are doing sampling (about 750 a week on new COVID cases) and extrapolating the data. The CDC estimates that 80% are Delta.

Dr Peter McCullough is a cardiologist, principal faculty member in Internal Medicine at TX A&M U Health Sciences Center, and Vice Chief of Medicine at Baylor U Med Center. He has over 3 dozen peer reviewed articles related to COVID 19 treatment protocols. He stated that at least half of the new COVID infections result from injection failures. He's done extensive research on COVID. The CDC is not tracking that data. I know a guy that early 30's has been vaccinated and has COVID. All this type stuff makes the message difficult to believe.

There was a Navy ship with 3,800 vaccinated folks on board. A little over 100 got COVID. Not a huge percentage but the point is it wasn't reported by the media. That type data is being ignored in favor of the media hype.

What a mess.

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42 minutes ago, billeisele said:

I copied it from a post I made elsewhere. They were my words. Didn't want to have to retype everything.

Fair enough. It looked like a standard "C&P".

Just out of curiosity, why do you believe this one "retired public health doctor" and refuse to believe thousands of current doctors?

10 hours ago, billeisele said:
 ...There were virtually no flu deaths or deaths from those common causes in 2020...

You do understand that the flu is a virus, and all the measures people were taking to prevent the spread of Covid were also effective at preventing the spread of the flu, right?

Look at the death rate among kids. The flu is very hard on kids, Covid isn't.
Yet the flu death rates among kids last winter was very minimal.

And if all the "Fake Covid" deaths were from other, 'common causes', please explain the excess mortality.
Death rates have been reasonably steady for a while. 
Yet, during the pandemic, there were a huge number of deaths. Far above average.

Google search result (pick your own source):
https://www.google.com/search?q=excess+mortality+2020&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS910US910&oq=Excess+mortality+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i512l9.5958j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

And this didn't just happen in the US, it happened world wide. The US is easy to find stats on because we track deaths quite well. 

Look at India a couple months ago. They were cremating people in parking lots because the formal facilities were overwhelmed.

It's been reported that Africa is seeing far more Covid deaths than are being reported. It's not easy to determine for sure, mainly because they don't keep track of dead people as well. 
South Africa does probably the best job on the continent, and as of May, they reported 55k Covid deaths, yet over 130k excess deaths.
Estimates vary, but many are thinking that Covid likely caused about 85% of those excess deaths.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safricas-covid-19-death-toll-much-higher-than-official-tally-report-2021-05-13/

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Life expectancy in the United States declined by a year and a half in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  This is the largest decline since WW2.

COVID-19 contributed to 74% of the decline in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Of course, Billeisel's buddy will claim its a hoax, and due to anything but COVID.

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15 hours ago, billeisele said:
Had an enlightening conversation with a retired public health doctor. He said that almost everyone that died in 2020 was classified as a COVID death if they had, or were suspected to have had, COVID. All the old people that had cancer, heart disease, or anything else that old people die from were classified as COVID deaths. There were virtually no flu deaths or deaths from those common causes in 2020. He said, "all those people were going to die anyway, they weren't killed by COVID." The death stats are inflated at least 30% maybe 60-70%. If you take that into consideration then the risk of dying from COVID is actually less than a tenth of a percent.

It doesn't sound very enlightening to me. It sounds like you found a crack pot to talk to who had at one point earned a medical degree, but is now riding full steam ahead on the bullshit train. It only takes a minute of actual research to evaluate and dispute the claims that this guy made, but you already knew that.

Edited by DougH

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7 hours ago, billeisele said:

Good morning. So these two doctors have differing opinions or experiences. No need to argue that. What is interesting is that there are historically reliable stats on deaths from various causes. In 2020 there was a substantial decrease in deaths from cancer, heart disease, flu and just about everything else that people die from. Draw your own conclusion.

Let's just take cause of death out of it all together.

During the period January 26th, 2020 - October 3rd, 2020, 360,000 more people died than the average of the 5 years prior for that period. (The COVID death count for that period was 209,000).

A LOT more people died in 2020 than what historical averages would suggest, something called excess death rate. Now, you may think that has nothing to do with COVID, but that is a pretty weird opinion to have.

Edited by SkyDekker

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9 hours ago, billeisele said:

I copied it from a post I made elsewhere. They were my words. Didn't want to have to retype everything.

Fair enough, that's understandable. I still consider my initial reaction reasonable at the time as I've seen so many posts just like it without source attribution... :P It starts with a lot of assumptions without confirmed data, then declares absolute truths based off that data.

Skydekker's already pointed out the thing that overrides it all - excess deaths for 2020 spiked massively with no other clear trigger other than Covid.

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2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Let's just take cause of death out of it all together.

During the period January 26th, 2020 - October 3rd, 2020, 360,000 more people died than the average of the 5 years prior for that period. (The COVID death count for that period was 209,000).

A LOT more people died in 2020 than what historical averages would suggest, something called excess death rate. Now, you may think that has nothing to do with COVID, but that is a pretty weird opinion to have

I won't disagree with the general numbers but the oldest baby boomers turn 75 this year and the yearly deaths due to their aging is likely to show an increase.

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47 minutes ago, Bigfalls said:

I won't disagree with the general numbers but the oldest baby boomers turn 75 this year and the yearly deaths due to their aging is likely to show an increase.

You think the chart below looks like that because of baby boomers aging? That's cute.

 

image.png.204ff46e9ff8b319fbffec73cbf10011.png

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40 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

You think the chart below looks like that because of baby boomers aging? That's cute.

 

image.png.204ff46e9ff8b319fbffec73cbf10011.png

OK, I need to get this off my chest:

All us baby-boomers got together in early 2020, and agreed to start dropping like flies, just to make Trump look bad.

There; I feel so much better after admitting this.

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