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gowlerk

covid-19

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4 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Were it not for our top shelf pinot's, outstanding micro brews and world class strip joints a guy might as well live in New Mexico.

Can the ladies in the strip joints shoot balloons with darts, like in Bangkok?

Edited by headoverheels

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19 minutes ago, Westerly said:

The point of the article is that some 3rrd world countries wont even receive vaccinations until well into 2024 and ultimately Covid is going to continue to find people to infect which means it will keep mutating thus rendering it basically impossible to kill off.

It does seem likely that we will have a variation of it with us for a long time. Vaccine production is going to ramp up faster that most people realize. In four months or so the US will have a surplus and  will not be able to find enough willing people to take it.

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(edited)
3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

It does seem likely that we will have a variation of it with us for a long time. Vaccine production is going to ramp up faster that most people realize. In four months or so the US will have a surplus and  will not be able to find enough willing people to take it.

Sure, but if it keeps mutating then we are going to be all the way back at square one, 350 million people need vaccination again. And then probably again and again. Having to vaccinate the entire population over and over is basically an impossible task. Technically it can be done, but it seems more likely the virus will mutate faster than we can vaccinate for it. So it's like okay, we finally vaccinated the very last person. Now we have to start back over again and vaccinate for Covid-21.

Edited by Westerly

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On 2/13/2021 at 9:30 PM, Westerly said:

If you read the link you'd see they are stating that it will just become endemic, which is what all of the other pandemics did after they were 'over'. Yes, the pandemic will end, but that doesn't mean the virus is gone. Look at other coronaviruses such as the cold. They have outlived any human on this planet.

The point of the article is that some 3rrd world countries wont even receive vaccinations until well into 2024 and ultimately Covid is going to continue to find people to infect which means it will keep mutating thus rendering it basically impossible to kill off.

That might happen or it might not. Yes, we need to be prepared for this outcome, but it's far from guaranteed.

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ZERO side effects from my second Moderna shot. Other than arm soreness. Many co works reported shivering and fever like symptoms within the 12 hours after administration.  ALSO, people who tested positive who received the 1st round suffered symptoms much like the second round folks... Now it's my turn to return the favor and become the needle sticker! :mask: 

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8 hours ago, nwt said:

That might happen or it might not. Yes, we need to be prepared for this outcome, but it's far from guaranteed.

What do you think is going to happen? When only 1st world countries will get the vaccination anytime soon and many people in said first world countries wont even take it, what exactly do think will happen to the virus? It will just go away? As long as there are humans to infect, the virus will keep infecting.

Edited by Westerly

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6 minutes ago, Westerly said:

What do you think is going to happen? When only 1st world countries will get the vaccination anytime soon and many people in said first world countries wont even take it,

Global health officials have feared that richer nations could snap up much of the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, and since the early days of the pandemic, the WHO and its partners, including the GAVI vaccine alliance, have been pushing forward with COVAX, a plan to support the development of new vaccines and secure doses for participating countries. . . .New deals announced today include an advance purchase agreement for 170 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate vaccine and a memorandum of understanding with Johnson & Johnson for 500 million doses of the Janssen candidate. COVAX has existing agreements with the Serum Institute of India for 200 million doses, with options for as many as 900 more, and a statement of intent of 200 million doses of the Sanofi-GSK vaccine candidate.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/new-covax-agreements-renew-vaccine-hopes-developing-countries

 

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15 minutes ago, billvon said:

Global health officials have feared that richer nations could snap up much of the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, and since the early days of the pandemic, the WHO and its partners, including the GAVI vaccine alliance, have been pushing forward with COVAX, a plan to support the development of new vaccines and secure doses for participating countries. . . .New deals announced today include an advance purchase agreement for 170 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate vaccine and a memorandum of understanding with Johnson & Johnson for 500 million doses of the Janssen candidate. COVAX has existing agreements with the Serum Institute of India for 200 million doses, with options for as many as 900 more, and a statement of intent of 200 million doses of the Sanofi-GSK vaccine candidate.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/new-covax-agreements-renew-vaccine-hopes-developing-countries

 

Great news. Now just 5 Billion double doses to go. Let's not kid ourselves, we have a long, tough row to hoe.

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2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Great news. Now just 5 Billion double doses to go. Let's not kid ourselves, we have a long, tough row to hoe.

Yep.  And sadly the problem isn't making those doses; we could have that done in a year or two at the rate we are ramping up now.  But once the West is vaccinated, people will start saying "well, ya know, I am all for supporting the WHO to vaccinate all those people, but the economy isn't great, and what about all those deserving homeowners?  They need a tax break!"

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2 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep.  And sadly the problem isn't making those doses; we could have that done in a year or two at the rate we are ramping up now.  But once the West is vaccinated, people will start saying "well, ya know, I am all for supporting the WHO to vaccinate all those people, but the economy isn't great, and what about all those deserving homeowners?  They need a tax break!"

But we didn't make the doses. Blame Trump or whoever but that's where we are. Now we have a bigger problem: how to get money to those who need it while our very uncertain future plays out. This will go over like a turd in the Christmas Punch Bowl but maybe we should be less focused on pre-pandemic great ideas and more focused on providing cheap energy to the economy. In the words of Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”

 

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On 2/13/2021 at 10:57 PM, Westerly said:

Sure, but if it keeps mutating then we are going to be all the way back at square one, 350 million people need vaccination again. And then probably again and again. Having to vaccinate the entire population over and over is basically an impossible task. Technically it can be done, but it seems more likely the virus will mutate faster than we can vaccinate for it. So it's like okay, we finally vaccinated the very last person. Now we have to start back over again and vaccinate for Covid-21.

But if we get quicker at recognizing it, developing a vaccine and distributing it then we’ll do better next time. And the time after. And the time after.

 

So yes, you’re right. Kind of. That particular virus now has a permanent place in the biosphere. But hopefully it’ll go the way of polio - still around, but not a major concern. You know that only 2 viruses have ever been completely eradicated, right?

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9 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

But we didn't make the doses. Blame Trump or whoever but that's where we are.

?? The "blame" there is the fact that you can't make the doses until you do the research, and find and test the vaccine.  That's why it wasn't available before December.  Not because anyone was lazy.

Quote

Now we have a bigger problem: how to get money to those who need it while our very uncertain future plays out. This will go over like a turd in the Christmas Punch Bowl but maybe we should be less focused on pre-pandemic great ideas and more focused on providing cheap energy to the economy.

Uh - OK.  Not sure what you mean there.  Do you mean cancelling things like the SLS?  To improve the economy?  That's also putting people out of work.  Or are you talking literally energy, like building a lot of nuclear power plants or something?  Problem there is that nuclear is expensive and people don't have a lot of money right now.  But it would add jobs.

As always there are no easy answers.

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4 minutes ago, billvon said:

?? The "blame" there is the fact that you can't make the doses until you do the research, and find and test the vaccine.  That's why it wasn't available before December.  Not because anyone was lazy.

Uh - OK.  Not sure what you mean there.  Do you mean cancelling things like the SLS?  To improve the economy?  That's also putting people out of work.  Or are you talking literally energy, like building a lot of nuclear power plants or something?  Problem there is that nuclear is expensive and people don't have a lot of money right now.  But it would add jobs.

As always there are no easy answers.

OK, we didn't order the doses. Whatever you like. No I'm not talking Nuclear Plants that will never be built in 20 years. The suggestion is that cheap energy fuels the economy in the same sugar rush way that clumsily ill targeted stimulus does. If this thing continues to bash us and our economy maybe we will eventually need to look at something that will work that doesn't require more borrowing. 

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Just now, JoeWeber said:

OK, we didn't order the doses. Whatever you like. No I'm not talking Nuclear Plants that will never be built in 20 years. The suggestion is that cheap energy fuels the economy in the same sugar rush way that clumsily ill targeted stimulus does. 

What specifically are you proposing?  

I strongly suspect that the end of the various lockdowns once we reach significant levels of vaccination will be quite a sugar rush for the economy.  There's a huge pent up demand for travel, consumer spending, local entertainment etc. that will hit as soon as less invasive NPI's plus fractional vaccination gets Re below 1.

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7 hours ago, billvon said:

What specifically are you proposing?  

I strongly suspect that the end of the various lockdowns once we reach significant levels of vaccination will be quite a sugar rush for the economy.  There's a huge pent up demand for travel, consumer spending, local entertainment etc. that will hit as soon as less invasive NPI's plus fractional vaccination gets Re below 1.

That's Ken's prediction, too, and if it plays that way I agree with you. But it might not. For one, it might go on for quite a while with variants, mutation etc.. Two, Re below 1 may come slower and end up meaning less than you hope because we're learning not to trust each other. Also, it is being driven home hard right now that immunization is far from perfect, so fast, cheap and accurate testing will need to happen, too. Third, I happen to be in the entertainment business and demand has been very strong. If we dropped all protective measures we'd bust every number we've ever put up this year. Aircraft leasing friends tell me that last year their customers made minimums easily in every location. That's your stimulus money at work, by the way. I have to ask myself just how realistic another $1.6 Trillion freebie package will be after this one gets spent. What I'm thinking, and I don't really like it, is that the $5.20  per gallon gas you were referencing earlier might not be the best short term idea. Same with other green economy measures. First do no harm, right? 

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33 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

That's your stimulus money at work, by the way. I have to ask myself just how realistic another $1.6 Trillion freebie package will be after this one gets spent.

“The structure of the economy is of course different,” Verner notes. However, he adds, “While one shouldn’t extrapolate too directly from history, we can learn some of the lessons that may be relevant to us today.” First among those lessons, he emphasizes: “Pandemic economics are different than normal economics.”

“Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu,”

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1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Aircraft leasing friends tell me that last year their customers made minimums easily in every location. That's your stimulus money at work, by the way. I have to ask myself just how realistic another $1.6 Trillion freebie package will be after this one gets spent.

I'm not sure about the long term effects of the poorly targeted stimulus money either. And it does seem the the lack of options for travel and entertainment spending did drive tandem business. Fools and their money and all that. I'm not making any prediction about the economic fallout of all this. That's way beyond my knowledge and also even the experts I would guess. Most likely one part of the hang over will be a further stratification of our society into haves and have nots. 

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49 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I'm not sure about the long term effects of the poorly targeted stimulus money either. And it does seem the the lack of options for travel and entertainment spending did drive tandem business. Fools and their money and all that. I'm not making any prediction about the economic fallout of all this. That's way beyond my knowledge and also even the experts I would guess. Most likely one part of the hang over will be a further stratification of our society into haves and have nots. 

Yes. Have kids and not have kids. Group two will start caring a lot less about group one, I'm guessing.

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