5 5
gowlerk

covid-19

Recommended Posts

59 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well let's say that 1 in 1000 has life-altering damage, and let's say that the current trend continues and most of the US gets infected.  That's 300,000 people whose lives are altered months or years after the pandemic - maybe they're on oxygen or dialysis the rest of their life, maybe they just plain lose their lives a year later due to that damage (heart attack or stroke.)

That's still pretty bad.  More than the current death toll.

Sure, but that is besides the point. I dont think anyone is advocating that everyone goes out and gets infected. That's retarded beyond belief, although if the guestamate that 100m people are already infected is accurate, then by the time the vaccine is out it wont really serve much purpose as everyone will already have been infected anyway by that point. Personally, I dont believe that figure is accurate. I think most people that get Covid do in fact have symptoms and the number of those who were completely asymptomatic is less than the number of those who were symptomatic. But that's just my guess. If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

My original argument was that I dont fully buy into the previous claim that many people who are completely asymptomatic are now suddenly having serious organ damage. If they were asymptomatic in the first place, then most likely the virus dident cause much or any damage to their body. I am sure there are exceptions, but I think that if you did get infected and dident have any symptoms, then most likely you can correctly assume you escaped harm.

However, for those who were symptomatic, that is an entirely different story. I can completely believe that those who suffered severe symptoms are now suffering from long term damage. That we already know is true and somewhat common.

Edited by Westerly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That you already were infected doesn't guarantee life long immunity.
For a lot of viruses (including a lot of nasty ones) it does, for others it doesn't.

Influenza is a well known example where you must get an annual revaccination.
That is because the outside of the virus changes a bit over time, so that your immune system doesn't recognise the virus if you get reinfected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under Covid education: "Police broke up a house party in Mississauga on Sunday that resulted in more than $47,000 worth of fines being issued to some of those attending...He said 27 fines of $880 apiece were issued and the two hosts of the party were each given a Part 3 Summons that carries a minimum fine of $10,000."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Westerly said:

Personally, I dont believe that figure is accurate. I think most people that get Covid do in fact have symptoms and the number of those who were completely asymptomatic is less than the number of those who were symptomatic. But that's just my guess.

The underlying problem here is that you are giving your own personal guess more credence than the educated opinions and conclusions of experts. If at the end of the day you're going to choose to ignore references cited by others, not cite any yourself, and stick to your own beliefs without any justification, why bother posting in the first place?

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

It's completely astounding to me that you think you have the knowledge and skills to make such an inference. Why bother with virology and epidemiology when we have you?

Aside from that, your thought process is flawed:
1) You've arbitrarily predicted (and stated as fact) that the outcomes of COVID will be (or "are", as if this is retrospective) similar to those of SARS, for reasons you haven't explained
2) You've been presented with scientific evidence that the outcomes of COVID are different from SARS
3) The only reasonable conclusion is that you were wrong at (1), yet somehow you conclude the opposite.

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

My original argument was that I dont fully buy into the previous claim that many people who are completely asymptomatic are now suddenly having serious organ damage. If they were asymptomatic in the first place, then most likely the virus dident cause much or any damage to their body. I am sure there are exceptions, but I think that if you did get infected and dident have any symptoms, then most likely you can correctly assume you escaped harm.

That's not an argument--that's a statement of belief with nothing to back it, and it's wrong. You believe it because it seems intuitive, but intuition does not equal truth.

 

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

However, for those who were symptomatic, that is an entirely different story. I can completely believe that those who suffered severe symptoms are now suffering from long term damage. That we already know is true and somewhat common.

You've already been provided with two specific example diseases that start as a mild viral infection but then later on become much more severe and even deadly.

And you've been moving the goalposts, too. First it was "organ damage", then it was "organ failure", then you got called out on that and moved it to "severe organ damage".

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Westerly said:

So how many cases are we going to get to after Christmas and New Years?

Nobody knows

 

15 minutes ago, Westerly said:

I bet that will be the spike of this entire pandemic from start to end.

What do you mean by that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, nwt said:

The underlying problem here is that you are giving your own personal guess more credence than the educated opinions and conclusions of experts. If at the end of the day you're going to choose to ignore references cited by others, not cite any yourself, and stick to your own beliefs without any justification, why bother posting in the first place?

It's completely astounding to me that you think you have the knowledge and skills to make such an inference. Why bother with virology and epidemiology when we have you?

Aside from that, your thought process is flawed:
1) You've arbitrarily predicted (and stated as fact) that the outcomes of COVID will be (or "are", as if this is retrospective) similar to those of SARS, for reasons you haven't explained
2) You've been presented with scientific evidence that the outcomes of COVID are different from SARS
3) The only reasonable conclusion is that you were wrong at (1), yet somehow you conclude the opposite.

That's not an argument--that's a statement of belief with nothing to back it, and it's wrong. You believe it because it seems intuitive, but intuition does not equal truth.

 

You've already been provided with two specific example diseases that start as a mild viral infection but then later on become much more severe and even deadly.

And you've been moving the goalposts, too. First it was "organ damage", then it was "organ failure", then you got called out on that and moved it to "severe organ damage".

nwt, you, lippy and mrcwood are turning into our own Squad here. I'm liking it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Westerly said:

If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

There is only one other SARS virus known. MERS is similar to it. I think we can all thank God, or our lucky stars, or whatever you worship that COVID-19 disease does not have the severity of outcomes either one of those do. COVID-19 is a far more potent spreading virus, but its morbidity is much much lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Westerly said:

You are right, it does infect fewer people which is good. This Christmas is going to be bad. I wonder if we will top 300k a day.

Well, it looks like we might be over the hump. So there's that, at least.

Hopefully it isn't some weird testing artifact related to the holiday.

 91-DIVOC-countries-EuropeanUnion.png.920f9d0b41731ae8fe79d0d95ef0648c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(edited)
1 hour ago, nwt said:

Well, it looks like we might be over the hump. So there's that, at least.

Hopefully it isn't some weird testing artifact related to the holiday.

 91-DIVOC-countries-EuropeanUnion.png.920f9d0b41731ae8fe79d0d95ef0648c.png

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

Edited by yoink
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(edited)
1 hour ago, yoink said:

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

 

Humans in general do a really bad job of forgoing short term benefits for long term gain, even in cases where the short term benefit to risk ratio is not appropriate. It's just complacency plain and simple. People think, oh Covid may be bad, but that would never happen to ME, so I am okay and I can travel and ignore all the rules. They might be right, but there are also millions who learned the hard way that they were quite wrong. There are also still a lot of people who think it's just overblown BS. One of my coworkers is super adamate that Covid is just a fake flu that is rarely harmful, even though this person is clearly in the high risk group. Unfortunately, sometimes the hard way is the only way.

Edited by Westerly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, yoink said:

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

Found a tweet response yesterday that pretty much perfectly sums up the rage and frustration for these people:

image.png.5e161b8a5c6319cd7e54793ecccb52ba.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mistercwood said:

Found a tweet response yesterday that pretty much perfectly sums up the rage and frustration for these people:

image.png.5e161b8a5c6319cd7e54793ecccb52ba.png

Agree, Dr. Fauci laid it out perfectly. Don't travel for thanksgiving and about eight million said F*&k to that. So there will be a thanks(for me)giving(now I'll give it to you) wave. A x-mas family wave, a new years party wave.

Until there is a second needle into those who trust science. There will be wave after wave. For those who are anti-vaxers, anti-science, etc. This time next year there will still be dozens a day dying.

The Covid freedom sounds like gun control freedom logic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Westerly said:

 

Humans in general do a really bad job of forgoing short term benefits for long term gain, even in cases where the short term benefit to risk ratio is not appropriate. It's just complacency plain and simple. People think, oh Covid may be bad, but that would never happen to ME, so I am okay and I can travel and ignore all the rules. They might be right, but there are also millions who learned the hard way that they were quite wrong. There are also still a lot of people who think it's just overblown BS. One of my coworkers is super adamate that Covid is just a fake flu that is rarely harmful, even though this person is clearly in the high risk group. Unfortunately, sometimes the hard way is the only way.

It’s weird to me. Growing up in the UK I heard stories from my grandparents about what it was like for civilians in WWII. Rationing. Blackouts. Travel restrictions. Air raids. All that stuff.

They SACRIFICED as a country. They had to, and they got through it. Whereas our country isn’t willing to just suck up wearing a mask and maybe not traveling for the holidays for a single year... Its really not a lot to ask in the big scheme of things.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, yoink said:

They SACRIFICED as a country. They had to, and they got through it. Whereas our country isn’t willing to just suck up wearing a mask and maybe not traveling for the holidays for a single year... Its really not a lot to ask in the big scheme of things.

When the US invaded Iraq (still pisses me off), we were told "go about your usual business -- that shows we're winning." I can think of no worse message to send, but I think it started with all the "I DESERVE (whatever)" that led to credit crunches, housing bubbles, and now the "I wanna stay open." In a war, we're sending young people off to shoot other people, and be shot at. If that doesn't deserve some thought from us, we're so very wrong.

There's a pandemic; it's real. People might honestly have varying needs (I have teenaged nieces -- so we had been bubbling until one went back to in-school classes), but just as yielding and respect are things you give, not demand, so is consideration.

We're just not good as a species at giving consideration to people we don't normally consider -- in the past, it's been minorities, women, etc. And that's roiling all kinds of social stuff.

Wendy P.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, yoink said:

It’s weird to me. Growing up in the UK I heard stories from my grandparents about what it was like for civilians in WWII. Rationing. Blackouts. Travel restrictions. Air raids. All that stuff.

They SACRIFICED as a country. They had to, and they got through it. Whereas our country isn’t willing to just suck up wearing a mask and maybe not traveling for the holidays for a single year... Its really not a lot to ask in the big scheme of things.

Its called Leadership:

spacer.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, yoink said:

It’s weird to me. Growing up in the UK I heard stories from my grandparents about what it was like for civilians in WWII. Rationing. Blackouts. Travel restrictions. Air raids. All that stuff.

They SACRIFICED as a country. They had to, and they got through it. Whereas our country isn’t willing to just suck up wearing a mask and maybe not traveling for the holidays for a single year... Its really not a lot to ask in the big scheme of things.

Maybe if we were being bombarded by V-1 Rockets instead of lies and intentional misinformation things would be different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Maybe if we were being bombarded by V-1 Rockets instead of lies and intentional misinformation things would be different.

Unless Trump had some investments with Germany.  Then they'd be big, beautiful freedom bombs that only killed inner city thugs who were too dumb to take cover.  Sure, sometimes maybe they kill innocent people, but what about her emails?  They led to dead people mumble mumble Benghazi.   Anyone who says killing people is bad but Hillary's deadly emails are OK is a hypocrite!

(BTW the V-1's were jet powered unmanned airplanes, the V-2's were the rockets)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, billvon said:

Unless Trump had some investments with Germany.  Then they'd be big, beautiful freedom bombs that only killed inner city thugs who were too dumb to take cover.  Sure, sometimes maybe they kill innocent people, but what about her emails?  They led to dead people mumble mumble Benghazi.   Anyone who says killing people is bad but Hillary's deadly emails are OK is a hypocrite!

(BTW the V-1's were jet powered unmanned airplanes, the V-2's were the rockets)

Yes, well, I'm not a Rocket Scientist. I'm an unmanned scientist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Yes, well, I'm not a Rocket Scientist. I'm an unmanned scientist.

As a former consultant to Rockwell International on the Space Shuttle engines, I guess that does make me a rocket scientist (in addition to being a nuclear scientist).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

That was the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), and those were made by Morton Thiokol. 

I'm aware. The thing is we're just starting to get to the bottom of things here. Rocket Scientist, Nuclear Aerialist, who knows what he's been up to at this point. Inquiring minds, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, nwt said:

Well, it looks like we might be over the hump. So there's that, at least.

Hopefully it isn't some weird testing artifact related to the holiday.

 91-DIVOC-countries-EuropeanUnion.png.920f9d0b41731ae8fe79d0d95ef0648c.png

I hate to tell you, but it's almost certainly a 'weird artifact'. At least here in the US. 

There was very little testing done over the holiday weekend*.
So new positives dropped dramatically.

They're already trending back up in Wisconsin. We set a new record for deaths today here. 

 

* - In Wisconsin, one of the strange aspects of this whole thing is how the testing gets turned into results (not sure how it happens in other places, but it may well be similar) . The tests are taken, then processed. That processing can take anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks. Those processed tests are then released as results. 
Because of this, any 'positive results' released (say) today could come from a test taken any time in the last 2 weeks. 

So any sort of 'trend' that shows up in the test results has to take this into account. 

Also, some labs report test results 7 days a week, some only do it 5 (weekdays). So the numbers from the weekend are always lower than the weekdays. What makes it even 'funnier' is that the results are reported to the state in the evening, and the DHS releases them the next afternoon. So the numbers released on Monday are actually from Sunday night. So the 'low weekend numbers' are the ones released on Sunday & Monday.
I have a FB friend who has been taking the state DHS numbers and putting them on paper as a series of graphs. The ability to spot trends on those graphs vs trying to follow the daily numbers is amazing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

5 5