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gowlerk

covid-19

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14 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Exactly. The Nova comes to mind as proof positive. 

I recall all the people who said "there's NOTHING wrong with the Nova if you are a competent canopy pilot!"  (Mainly people who had already bought them.)

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3 hours ago, ryoder said:

Annnnddddd next up on the Whitehouse Virus Lottery:

HUD Secretary Ben Carson tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/hud-secretary-ben-carson-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

And Trump Senior campaign advisor David Bossie to the list. He's the asshole in charge of the baseless election lawsuit program, I think.

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(edited)
2 hours ago, billvon said:

I am very glad you're not in a position of power at the FDA.  A vaccine released early could be far worse than a better tested vaccine released later.

Lots of things 'can' happen. I can tell you what WILL happen. Hundreds of thousands more people will be dead for every few months it's not released. 

And what happens when the vaccine is finally approved and the FDA says yep it's safe and effective? Then we're gonna be like crap, I guess it was safe all along. Well kind of late at that point for a lot of people who are already dead.

Edited by Westerly

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47 minutes ago, Westerly said:

Lots of things 'can' happen. I can tell you what WILL happen. Hundreds of thousands more people will be dead for every few months it's not released. 

And I can tell you what WILL happen if a vaccine is released and it turns out to have serious side effects.  All those nutjobs will say "see?  I've been telling you all along - these vaccines are UNSAFE!  I have PROOF!"  And they will actually have it - and will be listened to.

And the next vaccine will have to go a much longer set of trials before it's released.  And when it is released, most will refuse to use it it.  "Remember last time when the FDA said it was safe?  Not injecting my kids with that.  I'll wait a year."

And millions will die.  That's worse than hundreds of thousands.

If you want to join a vaccine trial I support that 100%.  Go for it.

If you want to end the disease before then, push as hard as you can for universal masking, testing, distancing, contact tracing and improved hygiene.  Those aren't as quick and easy as a shot you get in ten seconds - but are a whole lot safer at this point.   And they are very effective.

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And what happens when the vaccine is finally approved and the FDA says yep it's safe and effective? Then we're gonna be like crap, I guess it was safe all along. Well kind of late at that point for a lot of people who are already dead.

I have a Nova that I haven't jumped for years.  Do I feel foolish when someone else jumps a Nova and says "See?  It landed FINE.  You're afraid of nothing!"  Nope.  Because I have enough experience to know that "it will probably be OK" is not sufficient evidence for me to trust my life to it.  Same with vaccines.

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1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

And Trump Senior campaign advisor David Bossie to the list. He's the asshole in charge of the baseless election lawsuit program, I think.

Oh noes!  Will that slow down the filing of frivolous lawsuits?  

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(edited)
33 minutes ago, billvon said:

 but are a whole lot safer at this point.

There is absolutely no evidence to make that claim. Not one single person who has taken a COVID vaccine trial has died as a result of the vaccine and more than 250,000 people are currently in trials. Not one anywhere on the entire planet in any test being conducted by drug company resulted in a death of even one of the test subjects.

This is like claiming that skydiving is unsafe because you KNOW that if both your main and reserve fail to deploy, you're going to die. While that statement is technically true, it's also total bullshit because that has almost no chance of happening in the first place.

These vaccine trials dident come out yesterday. Some have already been conducting human testing for almost a half of a year now and so far they have been fairly safe. Very few people have had any adverse consequences in taking it, and the couple that did are easily within the standard deviation of adverse reactions that occur in already-approved vaccines for other diseases. 

You keep peddling a scenario that has almost no chance of actually happening and using that against the defense of a scenario that has a 100% chance of occurring. That's not a very strong argument. 

In the end the anti-vaxxers are not going take a vaccine regardless of the results of the trial so that's mostly a moot point.

Edited by Westerly

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An interesting note about the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine:

Both Pfizer’s vaccine and Moderna’s use messenger-RNA, or mRNA, technology, which uses genetic material to cause the body to create a protein from the virus; the immune system then recognizes the virus and learns to attack. Other vaccines in the late stages of development use genetically engineered viruses for a similar purpose, or pieces of protein that are directly injected. No mRNA product has ever been approved by regulators.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

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12 minutes ago, Westerly said:

There is absolutely no evidence to make that claim. Not one single person who has taken a COVID vaccine trial has died as a result of the vaccine and more than 250,000 people are currently in trials.

I am not talking about deaths.  Thalidomide didn't kill people, either - but it had some very nasty and life altering side effects.
 

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This is like claiming that skydiving is unsafe because you KNOW that if both your main and reserve fail to deploy, you're going to die. While that statement is technically true, it's also total bullshit because that has almost no chance of happening in the first place.

?? It's not total bullshit.  And if you are telling students that there's no chance that both will fail, you are lying to them.

But let's go with that analogy.  Using two parachutes undoubtedly reduces the risk of death. 

Now let's say someone makes a new reserve out of polyethylene plastic.  Never been made before but John Sherman has a theory that it will be better.  They put a few test jumps on it, and while it looks like the stitching isn't holding well in the slippery plastic, it works fine for those few jumps..  Does that mean that it should be sold to jumpers (and students) as soon as possible?  Or does it make sense to perform TSO testing on it to ensure it's safe?

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These vaccine trials dident come out yesterday. Some have already been conducting human testing for almost a half of a year now and so far they have been fairly safe. Very few people have had any adverse consequences in taking it, and the couple that did are easily within the standard deviation of adverse reactions that occur in already-approved vaccines for other diseases. 

Yep.  Are there any other reactions we are going to see as a result of a vaccine type that has NEVER EVER been used before?  Let's find out.

 

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(edited)
27 minutes ago, billvon said:



Now let's say someone makes a new reserve out of polyethylene plastic.  Never been made before but John Sherman has a theory that it will be better.  They put a few test jumps on it, and while it looks like the stitching isn't holding well in the slippery plastic, it works fine for those few jumps..  Does that mean that it should be sold to jumpers (and students) as soon as possible? 

 

 

It might make sense if the current reserves on the market were failing 50% of the time which is more of an appropriate comparison to what's going on at the moment. This is not a normal situation we are in and extreme situations require extreme reactions. Your scenario is not urgent in any capacity. The real situation we are in is extremely urgent. I bet the FAA would rush testing of a new reserve if they were finding that 5,000 skydivers were dying every year from reserve failures.

Edited by Westerly

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1 hour ago, Westerly said:

It might make sense if the current reserves on the market were failing 50% of the time which is more of an appropriate comparison to what's going on at the moment.

?? You're claiming we have no way of fighting it right now?  We do - masking, hygiene, contact tracing, universal testing and distancing.  Vaccination will require nearly everyone to be vaccinated, just as those NPI's require nearly everyone to participate.

And masking (and all those NPIs) doesn't fail 50% of the time.  

1 hour ago, Westerly said:

 I bet the FAA would rush testing of a new reserve if they were finding that 5,000 skydivers were dying every year from reserve failures.

Just as the FDA has rushed testing and allowed a 2 month phase 3 trial instead of the usual 6 month trial.  Let's wait for those 2 months (now just over a month) and see what the results are.

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(edited)

You are just going to have to be more patient. We don't know yet which of the many vaccines will be most effective or safe. And we must have a handle on both before widespread distribution. And besides that, just like the Russians with their magic potion, it is going to take time to ramp up production to meaningful levels anyway. The one good thing about the Trump handling of the problem is the investment being made in doing just that even before approval can be given. That will significantly cut the time between approval and availability . The reality is that even if your wish for vaccination to proceed ASAP and the testing come later was granted, it would make only a small difference in the speed that meaningful levels of protection could be achieved in the population.

At this point there is not enough to be gained from being hasty and yet still much danger of loss.

Edited by gowlerk

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8 hours ago, billvon said:

I am not talking about deaths.  Thalidomide didn't kill people, either - but it had some very nasty and life altering side effects.
 

I was just thinking of that.

It induced birth defects in fetuses - even at one single dose administered to a pregnant woman. I'm sure I also read somewhere that it remains (temporary) residual in the body and that males are not immune from transmitting the birth defects either.
 

Before this was found out, thalidomide was prescribed widely to pregnant women to combat morning sickness among other things.

IIRC correctly, the problem was left- and right-oriented molecules - mirror images of each other (I'm not sure of my translation). At that time these were chemically indistinguishable from each other, but the consequenses were extreme.

At Westerly:

Large infusions of cash help shortening the timelines in drug research. But the in vivo studies take time. Nobody wants another thalidomide out there. Sure it didn't kill you - but even though it protects the 'taker' of the drug against the targeted disease I ask: are the consequences worth it?Google "thalidomide" and "baby" for images before you answer.

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7 hours ago, Baksteen said:

IIRC correctly, the problem was left- and right-oriented molecules - mirror images of each other (I'm not sure of my translation). At that time these were chemically indistinguishable from each other, but the consequenses were extreme.

The term is chirality, and yes if you search for "thalidomide" together with "chirality", there are articles about it.

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(edited)

One of my favorite Youtube channels has his take on the new vaccine news, and offers info around it. For background, he:

- Is a UK cardiologist.

- Caught COVID-19 on the job a few months ago.

- Has a hobby doing amateur stand-up comedy, although is totally serious most of the time.

- Is ~40yo but looks quite young.

- Has one parent of Indian ancestry.

 

Edited by ryoder

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5 minutes ago, kallend said:

The BioNtech researchers responsible for the Pfizer vaccine are Turkish/German.

 

I wonder if the xenophobes will refuse it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-team-couple-intl/index.html

Then they can wait for the Moderna vaccine I suppose. Although some of them may object to supporting Cambridge MA elites. The reality is that the tech behind these modern miracles is international in nature.

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31 minutes ago, kallend said:

The BioNtech researchers responsible for the Pfizer vaccine are Turkish/German.

 

I wonder if the xenophobes will refuse it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-team-couple-intl/index.html

By the time the Pfizer vaccine is available for public distribution likely Feb-Mar. 2021 the core xenophobe areas of the US. i.e. The Dakotas, Kentucky etc. should have a well established herd immunity. With the balance refusing to take vaccines because they cause autism. Just leaves supply for the thinking population.

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(edited)
On 11/9/2020 at 7:58 PM, billvon said:

?? You're claiming we have no way of fighting it right now?  We do - masking, hygiene, contact tracing, universal testing and distancing.  Vaccination will require nearly everyone to be vaccinated, just as those NPI's require nearly everyone to participate.
 

I am not claiming that. However, none of those things are preventatives. They are intended to slow the cognation curve so that hospitals do not get overwhelmed. Cloth masks and hand watching is not legit PPE. They are desperate attempts at making home made PPE instead because we dont have enough real PPE for everyone. Washing your hands and wearing a mask will not prevent you from eventually getting COVID. If a vaccine does not come out, the virus will continue to run its course until eventually everyone gets infected. Masks and hygiene cannot and will not prevent that. The only tool we currently have that will completely prevent you from getting COVID is social distancing, but that is not physically possible. We cant live our entire lives without interacting with a single person.

A vaccine however PREVENTS you from getting COVID. Once you get a vaccine, you're now immune and will never get COVID, OR at the minimum you may still be susceptible, but at a MUCH lower level that makes it more like the flu and less like a SARS virus. That's the difference. One just delays the inevitable, the other prevents the inevitable from ever occurring.

A vaccine does not require everyone to get vaccinated. It just requires that I get vaccinated for it to help me. If other people choose not to take the vaccine and they get sick, that's on them. Those who choose to take the vaccine will still be protected even if almost everyone else chooses not to.

Edited by Westerly

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10 minutes ago, Westerly said:

Washing your hands and wearing a mask will not prevent you from eventually getting COVID. If a vaccine does not come out, the virus will continue to run its course until eventually everyone gets infected. Masks and hygiene cannot and will not prevent that.

There's this thing called the R-number, you know. Keep it below 1.0 long enough and the virus gets stopped - it won't run its course. It's basic mathematics.

I think you're thinking with your heart rather than your head in this - you need to run the numbers!

22 minutes ago, Westerly said:

but that is not physically possible. We cant live our entire lives without interacting with a single person.

New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan and half a dozen other countries pretty much got rid of Covid without a vaccine, by forcing the R-number to zero. It's not impossible.

The vaccine will work only against Covid-19. But good, organised community responses will be able to fight ANY virus, especially those who don't have vaccines yet. And trust me, Covid-19 definitely won't be the last virus to cause havoc. The next one will come, not if, but WHEN.

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(edited)
6 minutes ago, olofscience said:

There's this thing called the R-number, you know. Keep it below 1.0 long enough and the virus gets stopped - it won't run its course. It's basic mathematics.

 

Yes, but that wont happen until most of the population has already been infected. As long as there are people to infect, the virus will keep infecting. South Korea and all the others were able to get their numbers super low because they kept them low in the first place. A virus is much easier to contain when only a few people have it. But eventually 2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and 8 becomes 16 and so on and so on. So controlling it early on can be effective, but once you have 10m cases it's completely uncontrollable at that point. No level of measures will contain it when there are that many people infected. There is absolutely nothing the USA could do to get our cases down to zero at this point which means eliminating it entirely will never happen without a vaccine. That's the main strategy of all viruses. They are vulnerable early on, but once they spread to enough hosts they are a runaway train doing 90 through the middle of the city. There is nothing that can stop them except a vaccine at that point.

Edited by Westerly

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41 minutes ago, Westerly said:

I am not claiming that. However, none of those things are preventatives. They are intended to slow the cognation curve so that hospitals do not get overwhelmed.

They are, of course, both.

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Cloth masks and hand watching is not legit PPE.

A cloth mask is PPE.  Handwashing is hygiene.  Both are part of the current strategy.
 

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Washing your hands and wearing a mask will not prevent you from eventually getting COVID.

It's not 100% but it GREATLY decreases your odds of getting it.

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If a vaccine does not come out, the virus will continue to run its course until eventually everyone gets infected. Masks and hygiene cannot and will not prevent that.

Of course they can.  All you need to do is get Re below 1 and the virus dies out.

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A vaccine however PREVENTS you from getting COVID.

Well, no.  It greatly reduces your odds that you will get COVID.  The best vaccine results so far show that 1 in 10 people vaccinated will still get it.
 

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One just delays the inevitable, the other prevents the inevitable from ever occurring.

You are completely missing the point here.  The goal in both cases is to get Re below 1.  If we do that, the virus dies out.  We can do that with NPI's.  Some countries have eliminated SARS-CoV-2 this way.  Here in the US, since it is 'politically correct' to not wear a mask, it's not working very well.  You can do it with vaccinations.  For the next year or so it will be a combination of both.

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