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gowlerk

covid-19

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(edited)
1 hour ago, Bigfalls said:

I was wondering what happened to the virus that caused the Spanish flu in 1918 and found an interesting article.

The 1918 pandemic killed lots of people, then mysteriously "disappeared".

The RNA polymerase in influenza viruses is error-prone so mutation rates are fast - the 1918 virus mutated in 2 critical sites and became a lot less deadly, so it actually didn't disappear - it just became the regular flu (the H1N1 family that we still have today).

Why? Viruses actually face selection pressure to become less deadly, as if they kill their hosts too quickly they won't be able to reproduce as effectively. This is what happened to the Spanish flu.

However, for Covid-19, the RNA polymerase in the coronavirus has better "proof-reading" mechanisms, so mutation rate is much slower. Sequencing the genome from the start of the covid-19 outbreak to now there's only been minimal change. So if we want to wait for this virus to become less deadly like the 1918 one, we're going to have to wait a LONG time.

The upside is, since mutation rates are much slower, it should be easier to target with a vaccine and drugs. Unfortunately no vaccines or drug treatments have ever been developed for coronaviruses, so scientists are in new territory here.

As destructive as Covid-19 is, it won't be the last pandemic. It's not a matter of if, but when.

If we don't learn from this, the next one could be much worse.

And when the next one comes, would you want Trump to be the one leading the country again?

Edited by olofscience

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1 hour ago, olofscience said:

... Unfortunately no vaccines or drug treatments have ever been developed for coronaviruses, so scientists are in new territory here...

As destructive as Covid-19 is, it won't be the last pandemic. It's not a matter of if, but when.

If we don't learn from this, the next one could be much worse.

That's not strictly true.

There are vaccines against coronaviruses...

For animals. 

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0010/

Interestingly, one of the things mentioned in the article is that corona can develop into FIP. That's long been a 'death sentence' for cats. 
Recently, a shelter that I support had a cat with FIP. They went to a lot of effort (and not a little expense) to treat the little guy and he's considered 'recovered'. 

And of course this won't be the last pandemic. 

We knew there was another pandemic coming for a while now. SARS, Avian flu, H1N1 (Swine flu), Ebola, ect.

All of those were warnings that we had to take these kinds of outbreaks seriously. 
That's why the CDC developed plans to fight them.
That's why there was a task force designed to implement those plans.
That's why there was a 'playbook' for them.

You know, all the assets & resources that Trump shit canned.

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16 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Marc Short, chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, has been diagnosed with Covid-19.  Marty Obst, a senior adviser to Pence who is not a government employee, tested positive for coronavirus earlier this week.  Meanwhile, despite Pence being in close contact with Short as recently as Friday, the vice president plans to continue campaigning.

Apparently it's OK for Pence to violate CDC guidelines because he is "an essential worker".  His "work" is just political campaigning this week.

White House Chief of Staff Meadows admitted this morning that the administration has basically given up on trying to conatin  COVID-19.

“You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero." February 26, 2020.

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When you read the article below about Spanish Flu and how they dealt with it in Colorado, it sounds a lot like what's going on right now 102 years later. Closures, masks, and some people ignoring the orders. Many deaths. 

But one thing you notice is that THEY got a handle on the whole thing not in a year, not in two years, but in four months or so. 

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-denver.html#

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1 hour ago, kallend said:

Apparently it's OK for Pence to violate CDC guidelines because he is "an essential worker".  His "work" is just political campaigning this week.

White House Chief of Staff Meadows admitted this morning that the administration has basically given up on trying to conatin  COVID-19.

“You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero." February 26, 2020.

Well, with Wisconsin in the grip of a very large increase in cases (new cases 7 day average topped 4k), the Republican led legislature is in 'Full Denial" mode.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/23/wisconsin-republican-lawmakers-aides-facing-covid-19-outbreak/3692961001/?for-guid=238f4265-c25f-4890-ba87-228c994157f7&itm_source=jsonline-Coronavirus Watch&itm_medium=email&itm_campaign=baseline_greeting&itm_term=list_article_thumb&fbclid=IwAR28Ec8oPQnvY1gmiPQqGLr_prCoEu6ZxXClUU2tKffXTHav4b0pZFbv4FI

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A simple story about the Spanish Flu.  

A young American girl keeps a diary about her family's daily activities, and how the flu affected the small town where they lived. 

After I read the whole story of this girl's life, and what happened after she grew up, I thought they should make her story into a motion picture. 

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So Trump just retweeted a call to fire Fauci.  And the retweet contains what I suspect will be Trump's new narrative - "I WANTED to shut everything down and mandate masks, but Fauci wouldn't let me!  HE is to blame for the bungled response!"

 

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32 minutes ago, billvon said:

So Trump just retweeted a call to fire Fauci.  And the retweet contains what I suspect will be Trump's new narrative - "I WANTED to shut everything down and mandate masks, but Fauci wouldn't let me!  HE is to blame for the bungled response!"

 

Hi Bill,

And a drowning person will grab at straws.

Jerry Baumchen

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(edited)
5 hours ago, billvon said:

So Trump just retweeted a call to fire Fauci.  And the retweet contains what I suspect will be Trump's new narrative - "I WANTED to shut everything down and mandate masks, but Fauci wouldn't let me!  HE is to blame for the bungled response!"

 

Just goes to show, you can get to be a 70 year old man without growing a spine or a set of balls.

We might have discovered a new species. Homopoliticus Assholus.

Edited by yoink

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On 10/24/2020 at 2:03 PM, Westerly said:

I wouldent say they are a fool, more like they are just being disrespectful and uncaring. A mask doesent do much to protect YOU from COVID, unless it's an N-95 that has been properly fitted and seal tested, and even then it only offers some protection as the virus is smaller than the the minimum size particle the mask is rated to stop. The point of a mask is to stop you from infecting others, which is why not wearing one implies you dont care about other people. 

I need to get my winter boots because my feet are getting cold! I wonder if the residents of hell got a frost warning before I almost typed the exact same response and saw yours instead. 

Not wearing a mask isn't about taking a chance with your health, it is about taking a chance with everyone else health by putting those around you at a higher risk of infection.

Keep it up you super patriots!

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3 minutes ago, DougH said:

I need to get my winter boots because my feet are getting cold! I wonder if the residents of hell got a frost warning before I almost typed the exact same response and saw yours instead. 

Not wearing a mask isn't about taking a chance with your health, it is about taking a chance with everyone else health by putting those around you at a higher risk of infection.

Keep it up you super patriots!

A single virus probably isn't enough to get most people sick; I've seen surmising that it takes a droplet with at least 1000 virii to fairly reliably infect someone, and more than that to make most people seriously ill. If those are still accurate, then it might be that most people can fight it off it some degree, but not everyone.

So the mask keeps the larger droplets out and maybe lets some micro-ones in. More importantly, most of what leaves your mouth is larger droplets that become more dispersed in air currents -- the mask stops a lot of them.

When I have a cold, I keep away from people, and might even tell the people where I volunteer so they can either change what I do that day or tell me not to come in.

Seems polite

Wendy P.

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40 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

When I have a cold, I keep away from people, and might even tell the people where I volunteer so they can either change what I do that day or tell me not to come in.

Seems polite

You must be a communist! How dare you set us all on the slippery slope of considering our impact on others. You are both giving up privacy by volunteering your sacred health data and are on board with the invasion of your person by wearing a minorly inconveniencing item on your face. 

Freedom must be unfettered by any personal responsibility.

Never forget, my body my choice, unless it is some 15 year old rape victim in a conservative state, then it is gods life gods choice > my body my choice.

 

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6 hours ago, DougH said:

You must be a communist! How dare you set us all on the slippery slope of considering our impact on others. You are both giving up privacy by volunteering your sacred health data and are on board with the invasion of your person by wearing a minorly inconveniencing item on your face. 

 

 

I've jumped with Wendy.  She's definitely a pinko-liberal-commie of the worst kind.

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Trump in Tampa:  "We know the disease. We social distance. We do all of the things that you have to do." - that's funny

Also Trump in Tampa: "If you get close, wear a mask. 'Oh, it's controversial.' It's not controversial to me. You get close, you wear a mask. Social distance, social distance."

Now that's interesting.  Did one of his advisers get through to him finally?  Did he actually listen to his new frenemy Fauci?  Or is he just saying "what the hell" and trying everything?  If he'd started with this six months ago he'd probably be in the lead today, and other countries would be pointing to the US as an example of how to deal with COVID-19 - instead of banning travel from the most infected country on the planet.

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10 minutes ago, billvon said:

Trump in Tampa:  "We know the disease. We social distance. We do all of the things that you have to do." - that's funny

Also Trump in Tampa: "If you get close, wear a mask. 'Oh, it's controversial.' It's not controversial to me. You get close, you wear a mask. Social distance, social distance."

Now that's interesting.  Did one of his advisers get through to him finally?  Did he actually listen to his new frenemy Fauci?  Or is he just saying "what the hell" and trying everything?  If he'd started with this six months ago he'd probably be in the lead today, and other countries would be pointing to the US as an example of how to deal with COVID-19 - instead of banning travel from the most infected country on the planet.

Hi Bill,

'Or is he just saying "what the hell" and trying everything?'

Alex, I'll take 'What the Hell' for $200.

Jerry Baumchen

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(edited)
9 hours ago, kallend said:

Record new cases for the week.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/us/us-covid-case-record.html

"Rounding the corner"

"Almost nothing"

How long until we're at 150,000 a day? The really bad news is going to come in 3-4 weeks when deaths are topping 4,000 a day.

 

All the money and effort we put into a 15 year war after 9/11 due to 2,977 deaths, yet Covid is going to be killing that many people per day pretty soon and we havent put in 1/4th the amount of effort into controlling this issue. I guess it's easy to ignore when its a virus doing the killing and not 'terrorists who want to kill Americans'.

Edited by Westerly

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