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gowlerk

covid-19

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2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

It's widely attributed to Fauci (that's who I thought said it), but it's not from him.
Its actually from the "Repeal Obamacare" bullshit back in 2017.

Interesting!  I knew it wasn't from Fauci but I had seen it recently enough that I thought it was specific to COVID.

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8 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

 

Or who in the population trusts, understands science and truly respects others.

I was surprised at the disclosures this week about the low vax rates in Switzerland. Or the debate that led to the national vote on vaccine passports for the vaccinated. Which passed at 63% v. eliminating them. Previously I'd thought the Swiss to be more a homogeneous population with a more scientific mind.

It is homogenous culturally (in its own pluralistic way) but the  "don't tread on me," conservative political dynamic in rural parts here is similar to that in the US. The Swiss equivalent of the republican party (SVP) comprises about a third of the population. No other party claims such a large share.

With that said, its members don't rail loudly and constantly against climate science, evolution and epidemiology; they just see covid-related mandates as an affront to their independent sensibilities, without considering the collective nature of the problem.

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1 minute ago, masterblaster72 said:

It is homogenous culturally (in its own pluralistic way) but the  "don't tread on me," conservative political dynamic in rural parts here is similar to that in the US. The Swiss equivalent of the republican party (SVP) comprises about a third of the population. No other party claims such a large share.

With that said, its members don't rail loudly and constantly against climate science, evolution and epidemiology; they just see covid-related mandates as an affront to their independent sensibilities, without considering the collective nature of the problem.

There are rural parts of Switzerland? I'm heading off to google earth....??....

Like where the local dairy farmers can shoot their SG 550 rifles for fun? Obviously when the cows are in the milking sheds.

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Pfizer did a pretty good presentation about how protease inhibitors can address COVID-19:

https://www.covidviruslifecycle.com/

Unfortunately, given that SARS-CoV-2 and all its variants are now effectively endemic, the utility of protease inhibitors is largely limited to suppression of existing infections, with best results being with accurate testing and early detection.

Like HIV, SARS-CoV-2 is out there and being happily spread around.  Its incubation period and tendency toward shedding virus while asymptomatic make its elimination unlikely.

Welcome to the new reality.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

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14 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

There are rural parts of Switzerland? I'm heading off to google earth....??....

Like where the local dairy farmers can shoot their SG 550 rifles for fun? Obviously when the cows are in the milking sheds.

If you hear people speaking Romansch, you're likely in a remote valley somewhere.

Casual target shooting across valleys - at significant ranges - is rather the norm in rural areas.  The Gov't supplies large amounts of ammo, and people are happy to make sure that it is used up while fresh.

They tend to be pretty good marksmen.

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On 11/29/2021 at 4:25 AM, Phil1111 said:

Previously I'd thought the Swiss to be more a homogeneous population with a more scientific mind.

Swiss are politically pretty firmly on the right side of the political spectrum with ruling party a right wing nationalist party. We have seen worldwide a politically charged response to vaccines and masking regulations. So, can't say I am really surprised.

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On 11/28/2021 at 5:01 PM, Erroll said:

At this time there is absolutely no evidence that it 'originated' in South Africa. The South African virology scientists, who are among the most advanced and pro-active in the world(having had to deal with HIV, Ebola, Malaria etc.), were the first to discover the variant. The rest of the international community, led by the UK which has 10 times more daily infections than South Africa, had a massive knee-jerk reaction and as a result almost all international travel from South Africa has been banned. It feels is if the country is being punished for being at the forefront of virology research.

 

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1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

The axe falls in Oregon: 

Evening Jerry,

I just don't get it. More than 8.05 billion doses have been administered across 184 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 37 million doses a day. In the U.S., 461 million doses have been given so far. An average 1.12 million doses per day were administered over the last week. ~https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ (Dec 1, 2021)

Keith

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12 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

Evening Jerry,

I just don't get it. More than 8.05 billion doses have been administered across 184 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 37 million doses a day. In the U.S., 461 million doses have been given so far. An average 1.12 million doses per day were administered over the last week. ~https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ (Dec 1, 2021)

Keith

Might be they're hoping for an unemployment payout per the Republican playbook. Endemic Covid isn't the new normal we were all hoping would happen. Nope. The new normal is the realization that there was never anything cohesive in our societal construct that overruled our basest natures. 

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Just now, BIGUN said:

One does not collect unemployment for cause. If you were an "R" you'd know that. :) 

In Florida, you do. Layed off for not taking the jab is good enough, I'm informed.  BTW, I am an "R'. I'm also a "D" an "I" and, most importantly, an "A".

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8 hours ago, murps2000 said:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/omicron-San-Francisco-first-case-in-US-COVID-16666494.php
 

Symptoms are said to be mild. Maybe covid wants to play nice now so it can stick around? Just to be safe I think we should immediately ban all travel to and from San Francisco. 

You would think that evolution would favour a virus it does not kill its host quite as much. So that may be what happens. On the other hand this new variant may be mostly circulating among relatively young healthy people.

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(edited)
11 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

The one US case has mild symptoms partly

Morning, Wendy,

I read the following yesterday about the overamplification of closing borders because of Omicron. While it might be served well in the Biden Critics corner, I am more interested in hearing from some of our scientific fellow skydivers "IF" it's possible that Omicron could be the one to get to help build up one's immune system and the "curse" might also be the cure?

 

 

Edited by BIGUN

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57 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

You would think that evolution would favour a virus it does not kill its host quite as much. So that may be what happens. On the other hand this new variant may be mostly circulating among relatively young healthy people.

Evolution 'favours' viruses that spread well. Having the host survive long enough to spread the virus* is what matters.

One of the things that makes the mortality of Covid less of a factor is that the virus is spread early in the infection.
Presymptomaic people are the biggest spreaders. The last I read, the biggest 'spew' of the virus happens in the day or two before symptoms appear. 

It doesn't matter how many die in the following days, weeks or months if the spread happens early.

Preliminary indications are that vaxxed people are not getting seriously sick with the new variant. 
It may or may not be more serious in the unvaxxed.

 

* - One of the really 'fun' things about Ebola is the way it spreads and how people become more infectious.
Ebola is rather hard to catch. It's not airborne or surface transmitted. It has to be 'fluid transfer'.
Early in the infection, Ebola victims don't emit too much fluids. 
As they get sicker & sicker, they start putting out more and more.
So they become more dangerous as the infection progresses.
They are actually most dangerous after they die
The dead body is pretty much destroyed inside and the blood comes out of every orifice. That blood is just packed with the virus.
During the outbreak in Africa a few years back, one of the most vulnerable groups was the health care workers who recovered the bodies of dead victims. 

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1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

Morning, Wendy,

I read the following yesterday about the overamplification of closing borders because of Omicron. While it might be served well in the Biden Critics corner, I am more interested in hearing from some of our scientific fellow skydivers "IF" it's possible that Omicron could be the one to get to help build up one's immune system and the "curse" might also be the cure?

 

 

Good question, but the problem is that just running into it might not be the right way (if there is a right way). Yes, you can dive right into the cold water, but there might be sharks down there. We really don't know enough about sharks yet.

And we don't know how long any potential immunity to COVID is conferred by catching it, or how general that immunity it. I personally know a couple of people who had it twice almost certianly, and we're a highly vaccinated group around here. They aren't certain because the first time, we were still in detect-by-symptoms unless you're in the hospital mode (March 2020). The symptoms were what are commonly described -- loss of smell and taste, severe cold/flu-like symptoms, and both parties work in public-facing jobs, for for a veterans' club, and the other for the local food bank. The second time, about 8-9 months later, it was tested and confirmed, and much more serious. This is anecdotal, but there isn't enough data on the real world population to know how strong, long-lasting, or universal the natural immunity is.

So until there's a chance for either science to figure it out, or other people to go ahead and jump into the possibly shark-infested cold water, and find out the (possibly) hard way.

Wendy P.

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Just a note on the original article - the british response has very little to do with science and almost everything to do with politics. The right wing in the UK (as in the US) loves to stoke the "dirty foreign immigrant" narrative and thats all this is.

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4 hours ago, BIGUN said:

I read the following yesterday about the overamplification of closing borders because of Omicron. While it might be served well in the Biden Critics corner, I am more interested in hearing from some of our scientific fellow skydivers "IF" it's possible that Omicron could be the one to get to help build up one's immune system and the "curse" might also be the cure?

Two notes from the article:

"We don't know yet anywhere near enough" to make decisions about closing borders.  Well, that's the problem, isn't it?  We don't know.  If we close the borders and it turns out to be (say) less dangerous than Delta, we've created some economic and personal misery for minimal additional protection.  If we leave the borders open and it turns out to be significantly MORE dangerous, tens of thousands of people might die.  Which option there is preferable?

"If Omicron turns out to be a fast spreading virus with mostly mild symptoms for the majority of people who catch it" then it could get us to herd immunity.  Yes, that would be great.  But there's that very important word "if" in there.  It would be just as valid to say "if Omicron turns out to be a fast spreading virus that's more deadly than Delta, then opening borders prematurely could result in tens of thousands of deaths."  Again, we don't know yet.

She also says that in two weeks we will know more.  THAT would be a good time to open up borders again if it turns out to be less deadly than COVID.

But let's say it's about as deadly as the original strain and it also evades vaccine-based immunity.  Wouldn't it make sense to use the same precautions we used back then to reduce serious illness and death?

I would also note that she is basing her opinion that it's not dangerous on a total of about ten patients.  (She doesn't mention the number, but she mentions that she just started to see them in ones and twos, and on one day saw five patients with it.)  Keep in mind that the original strain was about 1% fatal and 5% hospitalization - so if she saw 10 patients (and all were healthy) she wouldn't be able to tell if it were any more or less dangerous than the original strain.  You'd expect them to all have non-serious disease.  Once she sees (say) 100 patients with it, we might get better data. 

Also keep in mind that even if it is exactly as dangerous as the original strain, we have better drugs/procedures/ventilator best practices/data from ECMO support, so that they are more likely to survive even if omicron is just as virulent as the original strain.  That's a good thing - but it also means that if we see 1% death/5% hospitalizations from this variant, it's considerably worse than the original variant was.  It sort of "resets" the advances we've made in treating it.

But again we just don't know yet.

It's likely that at some point most people will get a variant of this.  If they get it after vaccinations, and after drugs like Paxlovid and molnupiravir are approved, then the death toll will be greatly reduced.  Delaying pandemic waves until after that happens (i.e. most people are vaccinated and new drugs are available) the death toll will be greatly reduced.  That seems like a worthwhile goal.

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