covid-19

[base698 1]

9 hours ago, olofscience said:

So...are you going to address my last post, or just ignore it and pretend your point wasn't completely demolished?

Also waiting for your rebuttal on my calculations for age group 40-49. We can discuss the statistics of covid and children afterwards.

I've had wine, haven't read it yet, but leaving for tomorrow: https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/1441082279225298945

[base698 1]

7 hours ago, billvon said:

Less than half of those kids can even get vaccinated, since vaccines for under-12 kids are not approved yet.   Thus the higher rates.

And no, "a lot" did not have COVID already.  So far there have been about 43 million reported COVID cases in the US.  Even if that is underreported by a factor of 2, that means only about 25% of the US has had a COVID infection at some point.  Far less than half.

We are seeing a rise in child infections/hospitalizations because:

1) Delta is far more infectious than earlier strains and more kids are getting infected
2) Most kids are not eligible for a vaccination
3) Kids have become the latest political lever, and many republicans are going to great lengths to ensure that attempts to protect them from COVID fail.

 

Why then is the CDC number 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k?  Is that number attributed to more cases or more infections?  Assuming zero had covid the rate is basically the same between now and 2020 peak in 5 to 17 yr olds.

Edited September 24, 2021 by base698

[billvon 2,380]

17 minutes ago, base698 said:

Why then is the CDC number 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k?  Is that number attributed to more cases or more infections?  Assuming zero had covid the rate is basically the same between now and 2020 peak in 5 to 17 yr olds.

Which CDC number are you using?  Is it an average total?  If so, then you are mixing strains.  Delta is worse, and will show higher infection/hospitalization/death rates than the long term average.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

37 minutes ago, base698 said:

Why then is the CDC number 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k?  Is that number attributed to more cases or more infections?  Assuming zero had covid the rate is basically the same between now and 2020 peak in 5 to 17 yr olds.

What wine are you drinking that causes such confusion?

[olofscience 420]

5 hours ago, base698 said:

I've had wine, haven't read it yet, but leaving for tomorrow: https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/1441082279225298945

So it doesn't really address the fact that your National Geographic link rebutted itself, but you've now found another crackpot academic. You can probably find a steady stream of crackpot academics, and try to make me rebut every single one of them, but that's really just running away from the point isn't it?

And you're posting it here BEFORE you've read it? That's why your previous point was demolished...you didn't read the link before posting. This is just trolling now.

Edited September 24, 2021 by olofscience

[ryoder 1,380]

[SkyDekker 1,120]

13 hours ago, headoverheels said:

From the article, it is not apparent whether the nurse had consent at all.  I can't imagine that it isn't standard procedure to have the vaccinee sign a consent first, though.

 

Granted it is Quebec, I still doubt they have people walking around their pharmacies, randomly stabbing people with Covid vaccines. 

[base698 1]

On 9/23/2021 at 1:58 AM, olofscience said:

No need, the article you posted already does that for me:

And also:

 

Did you even read the article?

What I meant to post in my lack of sleep article from above: https://www.newsweek.com/leaky-vaccines-may-create-stronger-viruses-357575

This: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7058279/ more recent article involving chicken vaccines.  Seems to say: "Better to get vaccinated because it reduces transmission".  Since going back and reading my posts I think I didn't really explain my point and I linked an article, so I'll do it here.

Every organism responds to selection pressure.  If you plate bacteria on medium with antibiotics, increasing the concentration at each plating, in just a few generations they will be immune to the antibiotic.  All of the covid 19 vaccines are single antigen--not a vaccine.  A single spike protein received indirectly by the mRNA or directly by manufacture and growing with adenovirus.  I'm not aware of any mechanics in their construction that would prevent new virus from emerging like every other biological organism.  Maybe it's something about covid 19 that makes not subject to evolution?  Weird since it seems to have come from bats.

You could still make the argument in favor of taking the vaccine for at risk, but what happens when 4 new variants emerge?  Then four new variants off that? What is the production/research capability to build out new mRNA vaccines for increasing number of variants?  How much GDP would you have to use?  Maybe we can stop production of everything else and just make mRNA vaccines?  Or maybe I'm missing something about the evolution of covid, virus, and vaccines.

19 hours ago, billvon said:

Now that's funny.

I assume you're implying something about the NY cases?  Why did they have so many fatalities early relative to every other city and state?  My understanding it was the treatments developed.  Doctors were initially scared to just use high flow oxygen in fear it would infect everyone.  By may they knew vent first and ask questions later wasn't the best treatment method.

[base698 1]

11 hours ago, billvon said:

Which CDC number are you using?  Is it an average total?  If so, then you are mixing strains.  Delta is worse, and will show higher infection/hospitalization/death rates than the long term average.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html

It doesn't look like moving/long term average to me.  The child averages are the same in 2020 and now, as I have said over and over which doesn't seem to imply delta is some how worse on them.  The 65 and over crowd has way less hospitalizations which seems to imply the vaccine has some effect (or delta is less severe).  But they don't breakout cases of delta vs alpha in most of the data so who knows.

Edited September 24, 2021 by base698

[JoeWeber 2,294]

8 minutes ago, base698 said:

but what happens when 4 new variants emerge?

To date what has happened is that the existing vaccines have remained effective.

[gowlerk 1,902]

Just now, JoeWeber said:

To date what has happened is that the existing vaccines have remained effective.

Seems pretty simple.

 

[JoeWeber 2,294]

2 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Seems pretty simple.

 

I love the Base grade arguments: look you guy's we've already proven you don't need two parachutes, right? Who's with me?

[kallend 1,620]

They're dying to "own the Libs".

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

 

I see that Florida and Texas continue to account for about 1/3 of ongoing US covid19 deaths.

[billvon 2,380]

1 hour ago, base698 said:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html

OK let's go with that.  Let's look at the numbers from a week ago, since those are the people in the hospital now.  Kids hospitalization rate is 4.3 per 100,000.  There are 73 million kids under age 18 in the US.  That's 3100 kids.  So we should see something less than that number, since some have undoubtedly been released.

The press release you took issue with said "The number of children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the U.S. hit a record high on Saturday, with more than 1,900 kids in hospitals. ".  That seems to match.

Quote

 A single spike protein received indirectly by the mRNA or directly by manufacture and growing with adenovirus.

Right.  That was chosen very specifically.  If the spike protein - the structure that makes SARS-CoV-2 so infectious - mutates significantly, then it becomes much less infectious.  It is a very hard structure for the virus to change and still be effective.

Compare that to natural immunity.  SARS-CoV-2 contains about 29 kilobases of genetic information, or about 10K codons.  That means it could encode hundreds of proteins.  Some, like the spike protein, have a very specific function.  If that mutates the virus doesn't reproduce as well.  Some encode things like mRNA inhibitors that help the virus take over the cell.  And a lot are junk RNA.

So let's say you get a natural infection.  Your body responds, attacks the infected cells, and generates humoral memory of the antigens that the cell presents.  Perhaps it's the spike protein.  If so, great - the virus will have a very hard time mutating that and still function.  Perhaps it's one of the mRNA inhibitors.  Also good.  There are several alternative inhibitors that other viruses have encoded, so the odds of a mutation that makes that immunity irrelevant go up - but it will still require some 'work' on the part of the virus before it can substitute a new inhibitor.

But let's say you generate immunity to antigens encoded by that junk RNA.  Now you have immunity to things that the virus doesn't need at all.  And those are the easiest things to change due to random mutation - because the virus doesn't need to find an alternative to that protein, it just has to "break" that protein and it will slip right by your immune system.

So natural immunity is a crap shoot.  You may become immune to critical antigens, or you may become immune to junk antigens.  The one advantage here is that you typically get immunity to several antigens, not just one.  So if those several include (say) the spike protein you're in good shape.

When they designed the vaccine, they wanted to target the one thing that would be hard for the virus to change.  And since it was only one antigen that would be presented, testing and approval could be a lot more straightforward.  Seems to have worked, given the rapid testing, rapid approval and good outcomes with the vaccines.
 

Quote

You could still make the argument in favor of taking the vaccine for at risk, but what happens when 4 new variants emerge?  Then four new variants off that?

Then the pandemic could come roaring back, with the associated shutdowns and societal harm.  And this time it could kill ~30% of humanity, as happened during the Black Plague, instead of the .04% or so that the existing strains have killed so far.  Or it could kill 60% of humanity and put us back in a Dark Ages.  Unlikely, but possible.

A good argument to get everyone vaccinated and get it under control BEFORE that happens, eh?

Again, the absolute worst possible scenario is to have half the population vaccinated (and thus provide a reproductive challenge) and have half not vaccinated (to keep Re well above 1, so infections keep expanding.)  That's the way to get those 4 new variants as quickly as possible.

Quote

I assume you're implying something about the NY cases?

Nope.  I am comparing your statement about how bad the emotional propaganda is to your use of emotional propaganda - doctors "basically executing" patients - a few lines later.  How scary!  Imagine, doctors basically deciding to kill your grandma!  What an emotional trauma that would be!

To use the common expression, that is the pot calling the kettle back.

 

[base698 1]

36 minutes ago, billvon said:

OK let's go with that.  Let's look at the numbers from a week ago, since those are the people in the hospital now.  Kids hospitalization rate is 4.3 per 100,000. 

Where are you seeing 4.3?  I only see 2.9 now (up from 2.6) since they got more data.

[billvon 2,380]

12 minutes ago, base698 said:

Where are you seeing 4.3?  I only see 2.9 now (up from 2.6) since they got more data.

Week ending Sep 11:

Age 0-4: 2.9
Age 5-17: 1.4

2.9+1.4=4.3

[base698 1]

2 minutes ago, billvon said:

Week ending Sep 11:

Age 0-4: 2.9
Age 5-1: 1.4

2.9+1.4=4.3

It's not cumulative.  You can say the whole population under 18 has 2.9 rate for simplicity in your favor or combine them which it appears the site does if you select under 18 only resulting in true value of 1.9.

[olofscience 420]

2 hours ago, base698 said:

I'm not aware of any mechanics

Then this is an opportunity to learn.

2 hours ago, base698 said:

Or maybe I'm missing something about the evolution of covid, virus, and vaccines.

This is why mRNA technology is so revolutionary - to change the vaccine "target" all you need is to change the code in the mRNA, like changing computer code (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/mrna-vaccines-changing-coronavirus/story?id=76187538). And this is the first time in history that an mRNA vaccine was developed, and deployed. mRNA technology is even being considered to replace the existing flu vaccine and even cancer treatments.

So it's ironic that in such exciting times with medical technology, people are turning to horse paste because of misinformation.

So sure, covid-19 could keep mutating. We can just keep updating the mRNA vaccines every year too. But if people don't get vaccinated at all, then they'll end up like the chickens in the article you linked.

Edited September 24, 2021 by olofscience

[base698 1]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

I love the Base grade arguments: look you guy's we've already proven you don't need two parachutes, right? Who's with me?

Straw man.  In a base environment the main danger is the wall you just jumped.  So to prevent accidents you take longer delays, run and push harder.  A reserve does nothing but add complexity and the nature of accidents doesn't make them effective for most jumps.

If you're only jumping 3000 feet walls with a wingsuit and pulling high, take a reserve.

[olofscience 420]

2 hours ago, base698 said:

All of the covid 19 vaccines are single antigen--not a vaccine.

This statement does not make any sense. Covid-19 vaccines are vaccines. Meaning, they show a part of the virus to the immune system (via single protein, disabled virus, etc).

It's up to the vaccinated person's immune system to then decide WHERE to focus the immune response.

And it won't be perfect since we can't completely control our immune systems - for example, mine likes to focus on grass pollen in the summer, much to my dismay and discomfort.

But the mRNA vaccines minimise this by presenting nothing else except the spike protein, which is a really impressive technological feat.

[base698 1]

5 minutes ago, olofscience said:

So it's ironic that in such exciting times with medical technology, people are turning to horse paste because of misinformation.

It is impressive they got through the red tape of the FDA to deploy it at all.

The horse paste is a bit of propaganda too, considering ivermectin won the Nobel prize for parasites in humans and some doctors are prescribing it.  There is the errant person using vet meds for it, but it's disingenuous.  

That said I have no opinions on its effectiveness against covid and wouldn't take it myself.

[billvon 2,380]

18 minutes ago, base698 said:

It's not cumulative. 

Right.  They are not cumulative.  That's why you have to add the 0-4 hospitalizations and the 5-17 hospitalizations.  (There was a typo in my post which has since been fixed; I typed 5-1 instead of 5-17.)

[billvon 2,380]

10 minutes ago, base698 said:

It is impressive they got through the red tape of the FDA to deploy it at all.

The horse paste is a bit of propaganda too, considering ivermectin won the Nobel prize for parasites in humans and some doctors are prescribing it.  There is the errant person using vet meds for it, but it's disingenuous.

Sadly it is a pretty big problem.

On Facebook I have seen posts where right wingers give each other advice on the proper dose for equine ivermectin; one noted that it tasted pretty good.  A right wing friend of mine is taking it regularly here in San Diego.  Kansas is imploring people to not take it since they have been seeing a lot of ivermectin abusers showing up in their ER's.  In Missouri Dr. Steven Brown said that he has "seen people with ivermectin toxicity in the emergency room from taking the animal formulation. I’ve seen people who relied on ivermectin to prevent themselves from getting COVID who are on ventilators and who have died.”  In Mississippi, 2% of the total calls to the poison control hotline were from people taking ivermectin - and most of them took the equine variety.

And of course all the above are just the people who had problems with it.  There are undoubtedly many, many times that number who take it and don't get sick enough to call a poison control center or show up at an ER.

 

[olofscience 420]

1 minute ago, base698 said:

It is impressive they got through the red tape of the FDA to deploy it at all.

With hundreds of thousands of people dead, and thousands dying every day, despite economy-crippling lockdowns, I think it was a good motivator that focused people's minds.

[base698 1]

9 minutes ago, billvon said:

Right.  They are not cumulative.  That's why you have to add the 0-4 hospitalizations and the 5-19 hospitalizations.  (There was a typo in my post which has since been fixed; I typed 5-1 instead of 5-17.)

Then why are you adding them?  You could take the harmonic mean.

2/(1/1.3)+(1/2.9) which gets the value they show, ~1.9 when selecting all under 18.

 

Edited September 24, 2021 by base698