5 5
gowlerk

covid-19

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, winsor said:

Getting even a Jordan Form (first derivative) solution to a multi-parameter LINEAR system is generally daunting, and settling on an SISO approach to a complex nonlinear system suggests intellectual laziness.

Nonlinear systems can be solved with implicit methods, and linear systems are usually solved with iterative methods like Jacobi, Gauss-Siedel or the Conjugate Gradient method and they would be absolutely useless in treating covid, because it's a completely different subject.

I solve complex nonlinear systems in my day job. And I can assure you, I am less than useless at treating covid or making vaccines.

What I am useful for, is solving complex nonlinear systems, and pointing out that you're probably just saying stuff from my field (that has nothing to do with covid) to impress people with technical jargon. Why does it sound like another poster? hmm...

Edited by olofscience
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, winsor said:

 

I guess my objection to the vaccine is that it is pretty much the only treatment given much consideration. 

 

How is it that a man of your intelligence fails to understand the simple fact that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, winsor said:

I guess my objection to the vaccine is that it is pretty much the only treatment given much consideration.  Of course there is the use of masks and otherwise limiting transmission, but precious little attention is paid to other prophylaxis and treatment.

You missed all the news about dexamethasone.

Or you just ignored it to fit your narrative...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

How is it that a man of your intelligence fails to understand the simple fact that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure?

Hell, yes! I was going to say that myself.

Given the choice between a vaccine to prevent a disease, or a drug to treat it after I've been infected, I'll choose the former every time. But that's just me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, winsor said:

I guess my objection to the vaccine is that it is pretty much the only treatment given much consideration.  Of course there is the use of masks and otherwise limiting transmission, but precious little attention is paid to other prophylaxis and treatment.

When anyone touts a Single Input-Single Output Closed Form solution to a complex problem, it raises flags.  Getting even a Jordan Form (first derivative) solution to a multi-parameter LINEAR system is generally daunting, and settling on an SISO approach to a complex nonlinear system suggests intellectual laziness.

I got vaccinated at the first opportunity, but have no reason to view it as a panacea.  Two long time friends had severe thrombosis issues five days after receiving the Moderna vaccine, one of them was revived (and is still undead), one died.

If the vaccine is but one arrow in your quiver, fine.  If you're betting the ranch that the vaccine is all that is needed to bring COVID-19 to heel, good luck with that.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

I only know of one covid fatality, mother in law of an employee.  My wife's employee was hospitalized by the Pfizer vax.  Heart issues days after it was given. All of it is rare.  If I didnt look at Reddit I wouldn't know anyone had died of covid or the vaccine.

According to this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/kerpen/status/1439958258727407621/photo/1 

My age group (40) has 34 in 100k fatality rate.  Children under 17: 1 in 100k.  At 8 micromorts per jump skydiving hits 3400 micromorts at 425 jumps.  

For someone under 20 it's like doing 8 skydives.  40 is the same as doing 425 skydives.  At 50 covid is more like doing 1300 skydives. 

Risk profile everyone here seems to be really uncomfortable. 

Edited by base698

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, base698 said:

So getting covid at 40 is the same as doing 425 skydives.  Risk profile everyone here seems to be really uncomfortable.

Death is not necessarily the worst outcome, nor is it binary. The long term effects of COVID and those suffering from ongoing effects of a covid infection need to be included. Plus, I am tired of seeing all the relatives of idiots asking for money.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Death is not necessarily the worst outcome, nor is it binary. The long term effects of COVID and those suffering from ongoing effects of a covid infection need to be included. Plus, I am tired of seeing all the relatives of idiots asking for money.

Yeah and all the paralyzed, brain damaged, and amputees from skydiving don't show up in fatal stats.  I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.

Edited by base698

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, base698 said:

I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.

Are those stats with or without lockdowns?

For a proper bayesian analysis you should really calculate P(death | covid-positive & age group).

Edit: if you go to r/HermanCainAward it's full of people who kept posting how their chance of dying was << 1%. Needless to say it did not end well for them.

Edited by olofscience

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Are those stats with or without lockdowns?

For a proper bayesian analysis you should really calculate P(death | covid-positive & age group).

Edit: if you go to r/HermanCainAward it's full of people who kept posting how their chance of dying was << 1%

I think it is counting contracting covid and death rate.  If it wasn't it would be orders of magnitude lower.  

Haven't yet seen anyone on HermanCainAwards that should have been unvaccinated.  If you find one that is smaller than fat bastard from Austin Powers let me know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, base698 said:

For someone under my 20 it's like doing 8 skydives.  40 is the same as doing 425 skydives.  At 50 covid is more like doing 1300 skydives. 

So I'd be dead four times over by now.  Fortunately for me, skydiving is far, far safer than getting COVID.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, base698 said:

I think it is counting contracting covid and death rate.  If it wasn't it would be orders of magnitude lower.  

Haven't yet seen anyone on HermanCainAwards that should have been unvaccinated.  If you find one that is smaller than fat bastard from Austin Powers let me know.

Show your maths then.

I'll show my calculations:

  1. Total deaths from covid-19 in the US, age group 40-49: 23,501 (as of September 21) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
  2. Total infections of covid-19 in the US, age group 40-49: 4,790,271 (as of September 21) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/

23,501 / 4,790,217 = 0.49% chance of dying, an order of magnitude higher than your numbers (490 in 100k chance of death). This actually seems to be in BASE territory.

24 minutes ago, base698 said:

If you find one that is smaller than fat bastard from Austin Powers let me know.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

EDIT: fixed order of magnitude

Edited by olofscience

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, olofscience said:

23,501 / 4,790,217 = 0.49% chance of dying, an order of magnitude higher than your numbers (490 in 100k chance of death). This actually seems to be in BASE territory.

My (extremely rough) figures have BASE as higher risk than a Covid infection.

Anti-masker gave an IFR figure to me in a discussion the other day of 0.05%, which he openly stated was a result of excluding people over 70 to stop them from skewing the average, but appeared to still be official data (I think CDC, maybe?). A quick google gave me a fatality risk on any single BASE jump of 0.04%, making a Covid infection 25% more likely to kill me.

It's an incredibly simplistic model that probably has a bunch of flaws I haven't picked up on, but it highlights for me that the people who harp on about "it's only a <1% chance!" have absolutely no fucking idea how dangerous that percentage actually is in real life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, base698 said:

Yeah and all the paralyzed, brain damaged, and amputees from skydiving don't show up in fatal stats.  I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.

You're alright if I don't go first to the Base community for safety stats, yes?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, base698 said:

I only know of one covid fatality, mother in law of an employee.  My wife's employee was hospitalized by the Pfizer vax.  Heart issues days after it was given. All of it is rare.

The known USA death toll from the virus is 675,000 as of today. Anecdotal evidence may lead you to discount that fact. One in 500 Americas are fatalities. Not enough suffering for you still?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, billvon said:

?? There have been literally hundreds of studies on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, resdemivir, Dexamethazone, Tocilizumab, Baricitinib, monoclonal antibodies and a dozen other potential drugs.  Only a few of those have shown any effectiveness against COVID - but those few are used quite regularly.

 

 

Yeah, the results of these studies are stressed heavily in the media.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254377v1.full.pdf

I am also impressed by the approval of Remdesivir, which has nasty side effects and no improvement of outcome, while medications with hundreds of millions of doses taken safely are, of course, strictly proscribed.

Works for me.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

 

Final_Document_-_Supervisor_Haff_Handout.pdf

Edited by winsor
Data

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, winsor said:

and settling on an SISO approach to a complex nonlinear system suggests intellectual laziness.

So...after railing about over-simplistic solutions to a "complex nonlinear system"(?) you're back to pushing horse paste?

17 minutes ago, winsor said:

Yep, not peer reviewed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The known USA death toll from the virus is 675,000 as of today. Anecdotal evidence may lead you to discount that fact. One in 500 Americas are fatalities. Not enough suffering for you still?  

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID. Regardless of the number it's too many.

Based on the CDC stats one has a 12.9% chance of getting COVID and a 0.21% chance of dying.

It would be interesting to see the stats recalculated for calendar 2021. If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, billeisele said:

the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID.

This is news to me. Do you have a reference? The CDC excess death estimates jive with the official numbers pretty well.

 

1 hour ago, billeisele said:

If the presumption that many of the most vulnerable died in 2020 is correct then the numbers for 2021 would show less risk

Trying to predict an outcome that is dependent on a large number of factors that we don't fully understand, by looking at only a single factor, is kinda silly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, billeisele said:

The current number is 679,000. The challenge is that the actual cause of death wasn't (at least in the early months) verified and the experts agree that many were classified as COVID that most likely weren't COVID. Regardless of the number it's too many.

Tô go along with that are the people who died early in the pandemic who weren’t classified as Covid because they died at home, and their authorities assumed all Covid deaths were in hospitals. They probably don’t balance out, but error is rarely only in one direction. 
It’s nearly always safer to ascribe problems to error than to conspiracy. 
Wendy P. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, base698 said:

Yeah and all the paralyzed, brain damaged, and amputees from skydiving don't show up in fatal stats.  I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.

So you just assumed two different things were the same for no other reason than it was convenient. You can't seriously think this is a reasonable approach.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

5 5