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gowlerk

covid-19

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180k cases today. We set the oven to broil now. I knew we would get to 200k, I just dident think quite this fast. I am now thinking that 300k might not even be the top of this upcoming peak. Right now it's mostly just all numbers. Wait until Dec when those 200k+ cases a day start to become hospitalizations and deaths. Suddenly a whole lot of people are going to start wishing that they took more precautions. Regret will be on the menu for three meals a day.

Edited by Westerly

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1 minute ago, Westerly said:

Why? Are you going to drop by my house for dinner? Why do you care who I am? I am just an Internet no one, the same as everyone else on here.

You're right, in the big scheme of things we are a bunch of no ones. I'm simply one no one who has no respect for no ones who argue anonymously online. Others here don't agree, so it goes.

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1 minute ago, JoeWeber said:

You're right, in the big scheme of things we are a bunch of no ones. I'm simply one no one who has no respect for no ones who argue anonymously online. Others here don't agree, so it goes.

Joe, were you around here years ago when the PhillyKev fiasco occurred?  A jackass who got mad at him, used info from his profile to identify his employer and harass him IRL, getting him fired. There was a mad rush by everyone to strip out info from their profiles. I can't blame anyone for wanting to preserve their anonymity.

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So back on track, Covid... How many cases per day we need to get to before people realize 'business as normal' doesent exist anymore. How many thousands of news articles are out there titling 'rewound COVID denier dies from COVID'. The nice thing about science is it doesent care what your opinion is, facts remain such regardless of your willingness to believe them.

Edited by Westerly

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1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

You're right, in the big scheme of things we are a bunch of no ones. I'm simply one no one who has no respect for no ones who argue anonymously online. Others here don't agree, so it goes.

Personally my respect for posters who don't want to ID themselves but do want to be loud and heard is fairly low. Not zero, but low. I suspect that a few have professional reasons for wanting anonymity, but mostly they are just ashamed to be known for what they say. And mostly their shame is well grounded.

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3 hours ago, ryoder said:

Joe, were you around here years ago when the PhillyKev fiasco occurred?  A jackass who got mad at him, used info from his profile to identify his employer and harass him IRL, getting him fired. There was a mad rush by everyone to strip out info from their profiles. I can't blame anyone for wanting to preserve their anonymity.

Nope, I'm so new I squeak. I'm also so old I no longer have an inside voice. That, and given that no one with an ounce of sense would ever hire me, there is no chance I'll ever be fired. Sort of, I think if you want to be anonymous join AA. Here, if you are going to be loud, be brave and say who you are.

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19 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Nope, I'm so new I squeak. I'm also so old I no longer have an inside voice. That, and given that no one with an ounce of sense would ever hire me, there is no chance I'll ever be fired. Sort of, I think if you want to be anonymous join AA. Here, if you are going to be loud, be brave and say who you are.

Hi Joe,

Re: 'if you are going to be loud, be brave and say who you are.'

Absolutely.  I am a firm believer in, 'This is who I am and this is what I have to say.'

Jerry Baumchen

 

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Interesting report came out from Marine Corps bootcamp.  Now bear in mind these were 18-20 year-olds who had passed a physical.

Among Marine Corps recruits, approximately 2% who had previously had negative results for SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of supervised quarantine, and less than 2% of recruits with unknown previous status, tested positive by day 14. Most recruits who tested positive were asymptomatic, and no infections were detected through daily symptom monitoring. Transmission clusters occurred within platoons.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

So apparently among young people, looking for symptoms is useless. We need comprehensive testing.

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15 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Interesting report came out from Marine Corps bootcamp.  Now bear in mind these were 18-20 year-olds who had passed a physical.

Among Marine Corps recruits, approximately 2% who had previously had negative results for SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of supervised quarantine, and less than 2% of recruits with unknown previous status, tested positive by day 14. Most recruits who tested positive were asymptomatic, and no infections were detected through daily symptom monitoring. Transmission clusters occurred within platoons.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

So apparently among young people, looking for symptoms is useless. We need comprehensive testing.

Well, I'll be dipped in doo doo and rolled in bread crumbs! We need testing?

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4 hours ago, ryoder said:

Interesting report came out from Marine Corps bootcamp.  Now bear in mind these were 18-20 year-olds who had passed a physical.

Among Marine Corps recruits, approximately 2% who had previously had negative results for SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of supervised quarantine, and less than 2% of recruits with unknown previous status, tested positive by day 14. Most recruits who tested positive were asymptomatic, and no infections were detected through daily symptom monitoring. Transmission clusters occurred within platoons.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

So apparently among young people, looking for symptoms is useless. We need comprehensive testing.

Well that is nothing new. It's long thought that the total number of infected within any given day is easily double what the 'official' results are on the premise that many people are asymptomatic and therefore do not get tested. It's easily possible that the actual number of infected per day right now is over 300k. Random testing could tell us for sure if this is true or not, yet eight months into this and still no one seems to have thought of that or cared enough to actually do it. The best study we could possibly do right now is if a state firmly mandated that its citizens were randomly tested and supplying a test sample is not optional. That would give us more insight.

Edited by Westerly

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12 hours ago, Westerly said:

The best study we could possibly do right now is if a state firmly mandated that its citizens were randomly tested and supplying a test sample is not optional. That would give us more insight.

Can you imagine the response that would provoke from the "wearing a mask infringes on my rights" crowd.

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:55 AM, jakee said:

It's your problem. In a discussion on how well different countries have fared in suppressing the spread of the virus, case fatality rate is useless and irrelevant.

I agree CFR wouldn't be the right tool for looking at spread of the virus, but that isn't what we were doing. We were looking at which country is having better outcomes than the other in the metric of keeping COVID patients alive. CFR is the right tool for that job. Deaths / total infections isn't really used for anything to my knowledge. It feels like it wants to be CFR but it isn't.

Quote

I'm not "fabricating my own metrics". That is a good site although US v Canada at 30 days post hospitalization is more useful:

Well, that's what you're doing when you use metrics that are different from what others are using. I guess "inventing" would have been a better choice of words--"fabricating" has some negative connotations I wasn't going for.

Quote

The US is .998 Canada 1.12 of course Canada spends a fraction on care v the US.

So what? Are you bent on showing that Canada's healthcare system is more cost-effective than the US's? You'd almost certainly be right, but it seems like a wide tangent from this thread, and I'm sure you could draw much stronger conclusions from other data.

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FDA has approved a DIY home test. Requires a prescription, and costs $50. 

The company said that when it compared its test to one of the most reliable FDA-authorized tests out now, it agreed with positive and negative results 94.1 percent and 98 percent of the time respectively in a study of more than 100 people in California.

A rapid at-home covid-19 test — for under $50 — just got FDA approval

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/home-test-coronavirus-covid-fda/

Edited by ryoder

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I follow a number of UK moto-vloggers, and one of them (Richy Vida)  just posted this first-person account of getting COVID-19. A couple things I found very interesting were: How he thinks he caught it, and how abruptly the assorted symptoms presented:

 

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"Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson said in a new interview that he took oleander extract, an unapproved herbal supplement that has been promoted by the CEO of MyPillow, after contracting COVID-19.

The Washington Post reports Carson, a former neurosurgeon, said he took the extract after it was recommended by Mike Lindell. Lindell, who also served as President Trump's Minnesota campaign chairman, has a financial stake in the company that makes the extract, the Post notes.

Carson told the newspaper that his symptoms disappeared within hours after taking the supplement, also called oleandrin.

Anybody who has ever gotten COVID and taken it, they are fine in five hours, and the next day are running around playing floor hockey in the hallway,” Lindell has said, despite the lack of scientific evidence to suggests oleander extract is useful in treating COVID-19."

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HA!!! Dr. Fauci just gave a public speech on the new vaccine development. His exact words: Fauci defended the quick vaccine development process. “The process of the speed did not compromise at all safety, nor did it compromise scientific integrity,” he said.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-11-19-20-intl/index.html

Suck it!!! I freaking told you this could be done quickly. Now go ahead and tell the families of all those who are dead that 'good thing we took our time and did things slowly'. Freaking unbelievable. Dragging our feet more will just result in more deaths. Current projections show as many as 650,000 dead by March. That is more deaths than the single leading cause of death in the USA. If we get that many, COVID will be the #1 cause of death in the USA.

Edited by Westerly

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3 hours ago, Westerly said:

HA!!! Dr. Fauci just gave a public speech on the new vaccine development. His exact words: Fauci defended the quick vaccine development process. “The process of the speed did not compromise at all safety, nor did it compromise scientific integrity,” he said.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-11-19-20-intl/index.html

Suck it!!! I freaking told you this could be done quickly. Now go ahead and tell the families of all those who are dead that 'good thing we took our time and did things slowly'. Freaking unbelievable. Dragging our feet more will just result in more deaths. Current projections show as many as 650,000 dead by March. That is more deaths than the single leading cause of death in the USA. If we get that many, COVID will be the #1 cause of death in the USA.

What Fauci is saying according to what you quoted is not that the devt. process could have been done faster, but that the current development process, which you habitually call "dragging our feet" acutally is a really fast development.

Vaccine development normally takes years, if not decades. The COVID vaccine reached its final stages in a fraction of this time.

This was achieved by enourmous money grants to several or even many companies and institutions around the world. This translates in state of the art equipment, enough(?) manpower in all stages of development and testing and also into very large initial clinical trial-groups.

Another factor which greatly improves the timelines is that the authorities at an FDA-level are doing their review in parallel to the development of the vaccine; they look over the shoulder of the scientists, so to speak. Normally they would wait until all data of one or even all clinical trials is/are available, which is a way more cost-effective method. This last bit is poorly explained, I'm aware, but I get lost in translation once more.

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I just delivered a load of lumber to a pallet manufacturing plant in Gretna Nebraska near Omaha. It looked like there would’ve been about 150 people working there today. The only mask in sight was the one on my face. I’m on my way to Kansas City now to get a reload at a warehouse. We’ll see if they’re doing any better there.

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