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gowlerk

covid-19

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8 minutes ago, billvon said:


Until then we have some very effective NPI's that work to reduce infection rates (and turn symptomatic infections into variolation.)

Effective when people use it, but they dont, so it's not effective. It's like a seat belt. Super useful if you use it, completely useless if you dont. People dont take precautions and they never are going to. Want more proof, just look up your local DZ. Many dont wear masks, those who do are doing so very substandardly. In the end, this is a game of I need you to do your job (wear a mask) to protect me, I cant do that myself which in the end means we have no actually effective solution because no one is doing it and I cant force other people to do the right thing.

Again, even if EVERYONE wore a mask, it still wouldent be enough. That only slightly helps, but most people would still get infected anyway. It only reduces the transmission levels a bit. Even with universal masking, even the best approximation puts us at 100k more deaths through the winter.

Edited by Westerly

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The virus is strong here in friendly Manitoba. The whole province is "code red" and in a shutdown about 60 to 75 % as all encompassing as the first one. Only 1.3 million people live here but we are having the highest rate in the nation. About 400 new cases a day. I know those numbers are small but it is quite high for us. Hospitals are not yet full but are starting to be stretched thin. Shutdown is said to be for at least 2 weeks but more likely 4 weeks. Today is day one.

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5 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The virus is strong here in friendly Manitoba. The whole province is "code red" and in a shutdown about 60 to 75 % as all encompassing as the first one. Only 1.3 million people live here but we are having the highest rate in the nation. About 400 new cases a day. I know those numbers are small but it is quite high for us. Hospitals are not yet full but are starting to be stretched thin. Shutdown is said to be for at least 2 weeks but more likely 4 weeks. Today is day one.

That's brutal. MSM here in the states are reporting limits of just two per ice fishing shack for social distancing. Be strong, brother.

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5 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

That's brutal. MSM here in the states are reporting limits of just two per ice fishing shack for social distancing. Be strong, brother.

I was in MN, ND, WI, and MI last week. Almost no one wearing masks. MSM needs to do an expose on just what is going on in those shacks.

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2 hours ago, Westerly said:

Effective when people use it, but they dont, so it's not effective. It's like a seat belt. Super useful if you use it, completely useless if you dont.

Good example.  Solution?  We get people to wear seatbelts.  We have politicians urge people to do it.  We have fines for people who don't do it.  And it works - seatbelt use is up to 86%.

Quote

Again, even if EVERYONE wore a mask, it still wouldent be enough. That only slightly helps, but most people would still get infected anyway.

If everyone wore a mask AND distanced AND improved hygiene - it would absolutely be enough.  Re would go below 1 and the pandemic would die out.  Add testing/tracing and it would die out very quickly.

And since those are the tools we actually have it would seem to make sense to employ them.

Going back to the parachute analogy, it would certainly not be wise to use a 30 year old round reserve on a windy day, especially if there's a perfectly good in-date square reserve waiting for you on the ground.  But when you are in freefall with a total mal, you are a lot better off using that round than waiting until you get to the ground to get the square.

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On 11/11/2020 at 11:39 PM, Westerly said:

AI bet if everyone wore full, legit PPE including N-99 masks properly fitted, a face shield and a full body chemical suit, deaths would probably drop 100k even lower--just proving that cloth masks are not real PPE. 

(emphasis mine)

Well, that's the kicker, isn't it? A fit-test takes about 30 min and costs a lot of money. No way that everyone everywhere is able to get a properly fitted facemask.

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6 hours ago, Westerly said:

The size of a Covid virus is about 1.3 nm.

Individual particles are, but they're more likely to get transmitted via larger drops with more viruses rather than individual floating viruses. Evidence is emerging that initial viral load determines whether a case is serious or not. So even cloth masks would reduce this.

6 hours ago, Westerly said:

In the end the vaccine will get approved eventually anyway

Historically only about 5% of vaccines ever developed have been approved. So this statement is very inaccurate.

6 hours ago, Westerly said:

everyday we screw around with more testing is another day that thousands will die

You think the vaccine developers don't know that?

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For crying out loud. It doesn’t take specially fitted masks or any high tech filters to slow and stop the friggen virus. It takes a disciplined and careful society with people who can be counted on to do their part. Nothing more and China has proven it.

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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

For crying out loud. It doesn’t take specially fitted masks or any high tech filters to slow and stop the friggen virus. It takes a disciplined and careful society with people who can be counted on to do their part. Nothing more and China has proven it.

Hey, just because something works in a little country of 1.4B, doesn't mean it could work in our huge country of 330M.

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1 minute ago, ryoder said:

Hey, just because something works in a little country of 1.4B, doesn't mean it could work in our huge country of 330M.

It's not going much better here in Canada with 35 million. Although parts of the country with less right wing governments seem to be doing a lot better. It seems like "freedom to infect" is a real thing in some minds.

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Elon Musk Might Have the Disease He Said Would Be Gone By April

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-might-have-the-disease-he-said-would-be-gone-1845662749

The 49-year-old founder of SpaceX wrote that he was given a rapid covid-19 antigen test four times, with two tests coming back positive and two coming back negative on the same day.

So apparently Musk in in a superposition of both having, and not having, COVID-19.

No word on how the cat is doing.

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19 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Elon Musk Might Have the Disease He Said Would Be Gone By April

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-might-have-the-disease-he-said-would-be-gone-1845662749

The 49-year-old founder of SpaceX wrote that he was given a rapid covid-19 antigen test four times, with two tests coming back positive and two coming back negative on the same day.

So apparently Musk in in a superposition of both having, and not having, COVID-19.

No word on how the cat is doing.

Cat is both an atheist and a true believer.

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Canada currently has 24% of the covid cases that the US has per population.

Canada currently has 40% of the covid fatality rate that the US has per population.

Canada has 11% of US pop.

Perhaps single payer health care has better health outcomes. Perhaps a socalist-commie Prime Minister is better than a trump one. Where was that trump death clock?

Actually the trump death factor correction comes within about 3% of the overall Canadian death rate.

 

Edited by Phil1111

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21 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

It has me thinking and reading. Autoimmune disease is near the top of the list of horribles. 

I've actually got Hashimoto's - probably the least awful autoimmune disease, and while it's manageable, it's a pain in the arse and it's fucking expensive to do so. I wouldn't recommend deliberately putting yourself at risk of it. ;)

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1 hour ago, ryoder said:

WaPo: More than 130 Secret Service officers are said to be infected with coronavirus or quarantining in wake of Trump’s campaign travel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/secret-service-coronavirus-outbreak/2020/11/13/610eebcc-2539-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

 

Typhoid Mary reincarnated as Donald Trump.

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5 hours ago, gowlerk said:

It's not going much better here in Canada with 35 million. Although parts of the country with less right wing governments seem to be doing a lot better. It seems like "freedom to infect" is a real thing in some minds.

You might think that, but that isn't quite the truth.

The most commented on and by media described as incompetent government of Ontario is currently reporting 80.32 active cases per 100,000.

The politicall left government of BC, with the widely acclaimed Dr. Henry as medical officer of health is reporting 118.34 active cases per 100,000.

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15 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

The most commented on and by media described as incompetent government of Ontario is currently reporting 80.32 active cases per 100,000.

We are doing far worse than Ontario here. Doug Ford has been a better leader than any of the western premiers. We have been announcing about 400 new cases a day lately with about a tenth the population of Ontario. Ford may be conservative, but Pallister is an idealouge. Nothing matters to him but lower taxes and the economy. Ontario is now recruiting nurses from here because of the funding cutbacks.

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6 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Canada currently has 24% of the covid cases that the US has per population.

Canada currently has 40% of the covid fatality rate that the US has per population.

Canada has 11% of US pop.

Perhaps single payer health care has better health outcomes. Perhaps a socalist-commie Prime Minister is better than a trump one. Where was that trump death clock?

Actually the trump death factor correction comes within about 3% of the overall Canadian death rate.

 

The cumulative case fatality rate is actually worse in Canada than the US:

 

91-DIVOC-countries-normalized-Canada.png

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2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

You might think that, but that isn't quite the truth.

The most commented on and by media described as incompetent government of Ontario is currently reporting 80.32 active cases per 100,000.

The politicall left government of BC, with the widely acclaimed Dr. Henry as medical officer of health is reporting 118.34 active cases per 100,000.

Hip-Hip Hooray!!! The Canadians are fighting each other now. Finally we get some entertainment.

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